Does the Order and Timing of Active Labour Market Programmes Matter?

This study extends the traditional focus of active labour market policy evaluation from a static comparison of participation in a programme versus non‐participation (or participation in another programme) to the evaluation of the effects of programme sequences, that is, multiple participation or timing of such programmes. Explicitly allowing for dynamic selection into different stages of such programme sequences we analyse multiple programmes, the timing of programmes, and the order of programmes. The analysis is based on comprehensive administrative data on the Austrian labour force. Our findings suggest that (i) active job search programmes are more effective after a qualification programme compared to the reverse order, (ii) multiple participation in qualification measures dominates single participation and (iii) the effectiveness of several labour market programmes deteriorates the later they start during an unemployment spell.     

Dualism in the German Labor Market?A Nonparametric Analysis with Panel Data

A bstract . Orthodoxy in economics gives pride of place to the hypothesis of compensating differentials. Applied to job quality criteria, such as wage levels, job stability, and wage growth, the compensating differentials hypothesis implies that negative or positive job quality characteristics should— ceteris paribus —rarely coincide. Originating in the late 1960s from studies of American inner-city labor markets, dualist labor market theory has raised doubts about this assumption. At its core, dualist analysis proposes that a dualism exists between a primary' labor market where jobs possess several of the following traits: high wages, good working conditions, employment stability and job security, equity and due process in the administration of work, and chances for advancement and a secondary market where jobs tend to involve low wages, poor working conditions, considerable variability in employment, and little opportunity to advance (Doeringer and Piore 1971). In the 1980s, there were several attempts to apply dual or segmented labor market theory to European economies, including the German labor market. The mixed findings of these analyses have cast doubt upon the transferability of dualist theory to these contexts.     

Poor marketing or the decline of altruism? Young people and volunteering in the United Kingdom

This paper addresses the issue of the apparent decline in youth volunteering, looking at the factors that may be turning young people off or preventing them from getting involved. It draws on a new (unpublished) survey of young people's attitudes towards volunteering commissioned by the Institute for Volunteering Research, which suggests that volunteering may have an image problem, and suggests ways by which volunteer-involving organisations can make themselves more attractive to a younger age group. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications     

Would the Bundesbank have prevented the Great Inflation in the United States?

Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank—which is near-universally credited for sparing West Germany the Great Inflation—would also not have been able to prevent the Great Inflation in the United States.The implausibility of this result sounds a cautionary note on taking the outcome of SVAR-based policy counterfactuals at face value, and raises questions on the reliability of such exercises.     

What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?

We analyse the forecasting power of different monetary aggregates and credit variables for US GDP. Special attention is paid to the influence of the recent financial market crisis. For that purpose, in the first step we use a three-variable single-equation framework with real GDP, an interest rate spread and a monetary or credit variable, in forecasting horizons of one to eight quarters. This first stage thus serves to pre-select the variables with the highest forecasting content. In a second step, we use the selected monetary and credit variables within different VAR models, and compare their forecasting properties against a benchmark VAR model with GDP and the term spread (and univariate AR models). Our findings suggest that narrow monetary aggregates, as well as different credit variables, comprise useful predictive information for economic dynamics beyond that contained in the term spread. However, this finding only holds true in a sample that includes the most recent financial crisis. Looking forward, an open question is whether this change in the relationship between money, credit, the term spread and economic activity has been the result of a permanent structural break or whether we might return to the previous relationships.     

UK universities and the state: A Faustian bargain?

The universities are now 'one of the last semi-nationalised sectors of the British economy, ' used by government as an instrument of social policy. This situation represents a 'Faustian bargain ' which threatens both the quality and the prosperity of universities. One solution would be privatisation of some universities through public flotation. These universities could then contract with government to take state-funded students. Two objections are that the scheme would promote elitism and that it would encourage greater inequality between universities, but the relevant question is whether it would offer an improvement on the present regime.     

Were the Hartz Reforms Responsible for the Improved Performance of the German Labour Market?

From 2005 to 2011 employment rose and unemployment rates declined considerably in Germany. This favourable development followed the labour market reforms initiated in 2003, and there has been a tendency to attribute the improved labour market performance to those reforms. Causal micro‐evaluations of the various measures, however, show hardly any effects on variables that can be related to employment. Rather, it seems that employment increased in response to a process of wage moderation that had already begun in the 1990s. It is possible that this moderation was itself partially a product of the reforms, but this needs further investigation.     

What makes the clock tick? Time,populations, voters,and votes for the president in the United States

Our present analysis expands on the number of theoretical disciplines involved in the explanation of votes to presidential races in the United States. We do so by replacing the theoretically thin trend variable, previous studies have used, with the demographic factor.The demographic factor, which is obviously highly statistically correlated with the non-theoretical time trend, was hypothesized to have a significant impact upon partisan popularity and presidential races. As the demographic growth is due mostly to immigration and naturalization, and natural growth, especially among the poor, one would expect the growth to be beneficial to Democrats.     

How Do Alphas and Betas Move? Uncertainty,Learning and Time Variation in Risk Loadings*

I employ a parsimonious model with learning, but without conditioning information, to extract time‐varying measures of market‐risk sensitivities, pricing errors and pricing uncertainty. The evolution of these quantities has interesting implications for macroeconomic dynamics. Parameters estimated for US equity portfolios display significant low‐frequency fluctuations, along patterns that change across size and book‐to‐market stocks. Time‐varying betas display superior predictive accuracy for returns against constant and rolling‐window OLS estimates. As to the relationship of betas with business‐cycle variables, value stocks’ betas move pro‐cyclically, unlike those of growth stocks. Investment growth, rather than consumption, predicts the betas of value and small‐firm portfolios.     

Media Coverage and the Stock Market Valuation of TARP Participating Banks‡

We examine the impact of media coverage of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) under the Troubled Assets Relief Program on the equity market valuation of participating bank holding companies (CPP banks). We document substantial negative coverage of the CPP and its participants over the five quarters following the program's initiation. We find that the extent of negative media coverage about the CPP exerted substantial downward pressure on the stock returns of CPP banks, decreasing their valuation relative to bank holding companies not participating in the program. We show that our findings cannot be explained by differences in the banks’ financial viability at the CPP's initiation, new information about their performance being released to the market after the CPP's initiation or preceding stock returns causing the negative media coverage. Our findings highlight the importance of investor sentiment, as reflected by the tone of media coverage, in banks’ valuation during a period of high uncertainty in financial markets.     

Do Market Participants Learn? The Case of the Budapest Stock Exchange

In the paper we consider one of the faster growing Central European emerging markets: the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), in order to see whether the market becomes more weak-form efficient over time. The Hungarian exchange is selected because it is the oldest stock exchange operating in the region and, in 1995, it was the first Central European exchange admitted by the London Stock Exchange as a properly regulated stock exchange. As an econometric tool for comparative analysis, we use a Test for Evolving Efficiency (TEE). In a comparison of nine stocks and the market index (BUX) we found that the BSE becomes more mature but the process is surprisingly slow.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks in the case of the United States? Evidence from NASDAQ and DJIA

In this paper, we use both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to test the robustness of Binswanger's (2004c) finding that US stock market dynamics are governed mostly by nonfundamental shocks or speculative bubbles after the 1982 debt crisis. We estimate a total of 72 SVAR models and 36 SVECM models. We determine that the findings are robust indeed and that fundamental shocks have become less and less important over the years, irrespective of which US stock market index is considered.     

Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries

According to the traditional optimum currency area approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labor markets. Based on the paper by Belke (2003), the impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the four Visegrád Economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic) is analyzed, finding that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly increases unemployment. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for a removal of employment protection legislation.     

Drill baby drill? Political influence on federal onshore oil and gas leasing in the Western United States

This paper examines the influence of the federal political environment on the number and acres of leases issued for oil and natural gas development on bureau of land management lands in the western United States between 1983 and 2007. Using a fixed effects Tobit model for a 17-state sample of the westernmost states in the contiguous United States, the findings indicate that regulatory shifts played a significant role in determining the type of leasing. In particular, the Federal Onshore Oil and Gas Leasing Reform Act of 1987 led to an increase in competitive leasing and a decline in non-competitive leasing. Unexpectedly, the party and ideology of relevant federal political actors did not consistently have a significant influence on leasing. More conservative U.S. Senate leadership led to increased competitive leasing, but did not have a significant effect on non-competitive leasing. While for the House of Representatives, Democratic alignment, between the U.S. Congressional leadership and the state delegation to the House, led to decreased leasing. The effects of Federal politics on leasing varied by the branch of Congress and the type of lease issued.     

Career advancement in large organizations in Europe and the United States: do international assignments add value?

We look at the relationship between the number of assignments, the length of international assignment experience, the type of employer commissioning the international assignment, the individual's career stage at the first assignment, and career advancement: the time that the executives took to be appointed to the CEO position from the start of their career. Our sample of 1001 chief executives, based in 23 countries and affiliated with the 500 largest corporations in Europe and the 500 largest in the United States, allows us to examine important individual- and organization-level contingencies that affect the relationship between international assignment experience and career advancement. We find that international experience slows the executives' ascent to the top, longer assignments and a larger number of assignments being detrimental to their speed of ascent to top corporate positions. Further, international assignments at corporations other than the CEOs' current employer and assignments taken at later stages of executives' careers damage career advancement.