流动性过剩：基于货币供给决定机制的解析

货币政策的多任务性影响着我国货币供给形成过程,基础货币调整与货币乘数变动同时出现失衡,从而导致资金流动性过剩。采用发行融资债券调节基础货币的非常规策略不能持久,抑止对外净资产过快上升的成本越来越高。现金存款比率和准备金存款比率持续下降而准货币存款比率却变化不大,从而导致我国货币乘数持续上升。货币当局的资产结构和公众的资产偏好分别影响着基础货币和货币乘数,是导致资金流动性过剩的根源,而消除流动性过剩也须借助转变货币当局资产结构和公众资产偏好来实现。     

Central Bank or Monetary Authority? Three Views on Money and Monetary Reform

The global financial crisis triggered profound changes in the conduct of monetary policy, with ultra‐low interest rates and asset purchases becoming the main policy tools. This represents a major shift towards interventionism that even ten years after the global financial crisis has not been reversed. In this article, I assess three views on money and monetary reform. I argue that a central bank regime with a narrow focus on refinancing property at market interest rates remains an attractive alternative to the current regime and provides an essential benchmark to assess the progress of monetary normalisation.     

Monetary policy with interest on reserves

I analyze monetary policy with interest on reserves and a large balance sheet. I show that conventional theories do not determine inflation in this regime, so I base the analysis on the fiscal theory of the price level. I find that monetary policy can peg the nominal rate, and determine expected inflation. With sticky prices, monetary policy can also affect real interest rates and output, though higher interest rates raise output and then inflation. The conventional sign requires a coordinated fiscal–monetary policy contraction. I show how conventional new-Keynesian models also imply strong monetary–fiscal policy coordination to obtain the usual signs. I address theoretical controversies. A concluding section places our current regime in a broader historical context, and opines on how optimal fiscal and monetary policy will evolve in the new regime.     

货币性外汇储备资产的多层次优化配置

在中国拥有巨额外汇储备并急需寻求储备资产管理模式创新的背景下,本文以货币性外汇储备和资本性外汇储备的划分为前提,将多层次、系统的管理思想引入到外汇储备资产优化配置中。通过构建基于多层次需求的货币性外汇储备币种结构优化的AHP模型,测算出外汇储备货币性资产的最优币种权重。在币种结构确定的基础上再建立修正的资产结构优化AHP模型,并最终计算出货币性资产权重,从而实现了币种结构和资产结构优化的真正结合。研究结果表明：美元在币种权重中的领导地位还难以撼动,货币性存款在资产组合权重中也具有明显优势。因此,在货币性资产优化配置中,不宜将币种盲目多样化,同时应充分考虑货币性储备资产的功能和特性,选择流动性强、安全性高的金融资产。     

The Monetary Multiplier

After modelling the circulation of money as a Markov chain, a special multiplier is set up, explained and investigated. It describes, in mathematical terms, the enlivening course of new money, or the propagation of a monetary injection into a given economy, which David Hume inspected in his famous essay. Some explanation is given to why he considered it, justly, as a transitory phenomenon.     

Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio

We study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions. The amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint. When either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall, we observe a decrease in the money multiplier. We argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio. We also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio.     

Does Liquidity Matter? Properties of a Divisia Monetary Aggregate in the Euro Area*

This paper builds a quarterly Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area using area‐wide data over the sample period from 1980 to 2000, finding two main results. First, it is found that the demand for this monetary aggregate has been well behaved and relatively stable over the last two decades. Secondly, the Divisia‐weighed monetary aggregate is found to have interesting information content from a forward‐looking perspective. This lends support to the view that money and – in a broader sense – liquidity services should be assigned an important role in shaping monetary policy in the euro area, although the policy maker is not interested in monetary aggregates per se.     

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature on the interaction between real stock returns, inflation, and money growth, with a special emphasis on the role of monetary policy. This is an area of research that has interested monetary and financial economists for a long time. Monetary economists have been interested in the question whether money has any effect on real stock prices, while financial economists have investigated whether equity is a good hedge against inflation. Empirical studies show that money can be helpful in predicting future stock returns. Empirical evidence also suggest that equity is not a good hedge against inflation in the short run but may be so in the long run. The short-run negative relation between stock returns and inflation can easily be explained by theoretical models. If the central bank conducts a countercyclical monetary policy this will result in a negative relation between inflation and stock returns, while if it conducts a procyclical policy we could observe a positive relation. According to both theoretical and empirical studies investors receive an inflation risk premium for holding equity.     

Divisia加权货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标有效性研究——基于LSTAR模型的实证分析

本文在货币需求函数稳健性为货币政策中介目标有效性标准的假设基础上,结合货币政策传导过程中的非对称性,构建具有非对称性的LSTAR模型。货币政策中介目标的选择有不同统计口径的货币供应量,采用M1、M2和Divisia加权M1、M2时,货币需求函数稳健性具有差异性;利用构建的LSTAR模型,使用M1、M2和测算Divisa加权M1、M2对相应LSTAR模型进行实证分析,发现Divisa加权的货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标比不加权的更为有效,而就货币供应量层次分析,Divisa加权的M2比M1更有效。     

Briefing Paper The Debate about Monetary Policy

The main implications from the discussion above are:

• 1. 

  If the PSBR affects the money supply it should also have a direct influence upon inflation.
• 2. 

  Our research indeed suggests that the PSBR is the root cause of inflation as well as the root cause of monetary growth.
• 3. 

  The government should therefore be less pre-occupied with M3 and lay even greater emphasis on the PSBR.
• 4. 

  It should avoid sinking its energies into money base control. At most some form of money base control is advisable as a precaution.
• 5. 

  To avoid any further money market disturbances the authorities should resort to a floating rate policy for MLR as was formerly the case.

     

On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy

We employ a recent time‐varying cointegration test to revisit the usefulness of long‐run money demand equations for the ECB, addressing the issue of their instability by means of a model evaluation exercise. Building on the results, we make a twofold contribution. First, we propose a novel stable money demand equation relying on two crucial factors: a speculative motive, represented by domestic and foreign price‐earnings ratios, and a precautionary motive, measured by changes in unemployment. Second, we use the model to derive relevant policy implications for the ECB, since excess liquidity looks more useful for forecasting stock market busts than future inflation. Overall, this evidence points to (i) a possible evolution of the monetary pillar in the direction of pursuing financial stability and (ii) the exclusion of a sudden liquidity–driven inflationary burst after the exit from the prolonged period of unconventional monetary measures.     

Modelling & Controlling Monetary and Economic Identities with Constrained State Space Models

The paper presents a method for modelling and controlling time series with identity structures. The approach is presented in the context of monetary targeting where the monetary identity (e.g. reserve money equals net foreign assets plus domestic credit) is modelled using a constrained state space model and next‐period changes in domestic credit (policy variable) are estimated to reach the target level of reserve money. The constrained modelling ensures that aggregation and identity relations among items are dynamically satisfied during estimation, leading to more accurate forecasting and targeting. Applications to Germany, UK and USA show that the constrained state space model provides significant improvements in targeting and forecasting performance over the AR(1) benchmark and the unconstrained model. Reduction in the mean square error of targeting over AR(1) is in the range of 76–95% for the three countries while the gain in targeting efficiency over unconstrained modelling is between 21% and 55%. Beyond monetary targeting, the method has wide application to the dynamic modelling and control of economic and financial time series with identity and aggregation constraints (e.g. balance of payment, national income, purchasing power parity, company balance sheet).     

How does Monetary Policy Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? New International Evidence*

This article analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two‐way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this issue using a structural VAR model that is identified using a combination of sign and short‐term (zero) restrictions. Doing so we find that, while there is a instantaneous reaction in the exchange rate following a monetary policy shock in all countries, monetary policy responds significantly on impact to an exchange rate shock in only four of the six countries.     

Monetary policy and bank performance: The role of business models

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and bank performance in a multiple-instrument environment, particularly highlighting the conditioning role of bank business models. Employing a unique dataset of Vietnamese commercial banks from 2007 to 2019, we display that banks react to monetary policy changes, either when the central bank increases policy rates or injects money into the economy through open market operations, by decreasing overall returns and increasing financial instability. Additionally, we document that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves benefits bank outcomes, contrasting to open market operations, albeit the central bank uses both of these policy instruments to alter money supply in the economy. Our key analysis of interest reveals that business models considerably matter in the effects of monetary policy on bank performance. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that banks’ business models that yield more non-interest income or diversify more into different income sources may mitigate the pass-through of monetary policy to bank performance. This finding holds across all interest- and quantitative-based monetary policy indicators and across all the functions of risk-taking behavior, earning-profit capacity, and financial stability. Furthermore, while plotting the marginal effects of monetary policy, we realize that they are insignificant for banks whose business models heavily rely on non-traditional segments.     

我国货币供应方式对市场利率的影响

本文选用2002年至2012年的中国月度数据,采用Johansen协整检验和VEC模型分析的方法,实证研究基础货币同比增长率（MB）和法定存款准备金率同比增长率（RR）联合影响90天期限的全国银行间同业拆借利率（N90D）。结果表明：RR变动是N90D变动的Granger极其显著的原因;MB变动不是N90D变动的Granger原因;MB变动和RR变动两者联合是N90D变动的显著Granger原因,N90D与MB、RR存在长期均衡关系：RR每上升1%,N90D就会上升20.75%,MB每上升1%,N90D就会下降0.47%。法定存款准备金率变动造成市场利率剧烈波动,而公开市场操作对市场利率影响微弱。本文特提出政策建议：1、进一步推进利率市场化;2、减少法定存款准备金率的使用;3、货币政策中介目标逐步过度到利率指标。     

Monetary transmission right from the start: On the information content of the Eurosystem's main refinancing operations

The Eurosystem's main refinancing operations (MROs) are key for the interbank money market and the monetary transmission process in the euro area. This paper investigates how money market rates respond to the information revealed by various aspects of an MRO auction outcome. Our results confirm that the level of MRO rates governed short-term money market rates before the financial crisis. Since the start of the financial crisis, however, the information content of MRO rates has changed. While the levels of MRO rates have lost much of their pre-crisis significance, the spread between the weighted average and the marginal MRO rate has become an important barometer for the actual situation in the money market during the crisis.     

WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING?

This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary policy regime per se as distinct from other shocks. For this purpose, we estimate a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the classical Gold Standard era. We use this model to conduct a counterfactual experiment to assess whether a monetary policy conducted on the basis of a Taylor rule characterizing the Great Moderation data would have led to different outcomes for macroeconomic volatility and welfare in the Gold Standard era. The counterfactual Taylor rule significantly reduces inflation volatility, but at the cost of higher real‐money and interest‐rate volatility. Output volatility is very similar. The end result is no welfare improvement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

企业货币资金内部控制分析——A企业一亿存款丢失案案例分析

货币资金是企业资产的重要组成部分。货币资金对企业的健康经营和发展十分重要,因此企业货币资金的内部控制管理对货币资金的安全性、流动性和收益性本就有着至关重要的意义。近年来,白酒行业新兴起了一种"存款销酒"的销售模式,该销售模式又对白酒企业的货币资金内部控制提出了更高的要求。本文以A企业采用该种销售模式导致一亿元银行存款丢失事件为案例,通过分析A企业货币资金内部控制要素,评价其在货币资金内部控制中存在的缺陷,提出企业加强货币资金内部控制的策略。     

Limited monitoring and the essentiality of money

Monetary theory emphasizes that imperfect monitoring is necessary for money to be essential, that is, for money to achieve socially desirable allocations. Little is known about how limited monitoring must be if money is to be essential, though. Understanding sufficient conditions for the essentiality of money is important since monitoring is a natural way in which credit is introduced in monetary models. In this paper, we show that money can fail to be essential even if monitoring is quite limited. This indicates that one must be careful when introducing monitoring in monetary models to allow for the coexistence of money and credit.     

A Markov Switching Factor‐Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

This paper develops a Markov switching factor‐augmented vector autoregression to investigate the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy for distinct stages of the US business cycle. We assume that autoregressive parameters and covariance matrices of the error terms are regime dependent, driven by an unobserved Markov indicator. Endogenously determined transition probabilities are governed by an underlying probit model that features a large set of possible predictors. The empirical findings provide evidence for differences in the transmission of monetary policy shocks that mainly stem from heterogeneity in the responses of financial market quantities.