Optimal Monetary Policy, Taxes, and Public Debt in an Intertemporal Equilibrium

This article is devoted to a study of the optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the framework of an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints. We first characterize the intertemporal equilibrium. Then we show how to decentralize the optimal growth path using available policy instruments (i.e., labor income and capital taxes, public debt, money supply). Between the four instruments: wages and capital taxes, debt and monetary policy, one is redundant among the three last which implies that the Friedman Rule is only a special case.     

财政分权框架下的财政政策和货币政策

本文扩展了Barro( 1 990 )和Gong和Zou( 2 0 0 2 )的模型 ,讨论财政分权框架下的政府财政政策和货币政策 ,通过消费者行为、地方政府行为和中央政府行为之间Nash均衡解 ,得到了经济增长率和各参数的隐式关系 ,并且通过数值模拟得到经济增长率与各种税收以及政府间转移支付的关系。我们发现经济增长率和收入税的关系是Laffer曲线 ,消费税对经济增长的影响是正的 ,财产税对经济增长的影响是负的。至于货币政策的影响 ,我们发现货币不再是超中性的了 ,供应量增加可以促进经济增长 ,而且经济中的货币的流通程度越高 ,经济增长率越高。最后 ,本文还讨论了多级地方政府的情况 ,分析了不同税收制度的地区对整个经济增长的不同影响。     

Substitution,Income, and Intertemporal Effects In Currency-Substitution Models*

Empirical studies which aim to determine the extent of international currency substitution typically focus on the coefficient associated with the anticipated rate of depreciation of the domestic currency or on the foreign interest rate in the domestic money demand equation. an intertemporal optimizing model is used to obtain a money demand function which shows that the anticipated exchange-rate change and the foreign interest rate capture an income effect and an intertemporal income or substitution effect. Using these theoretical results, the findings from empirical studies are examined to show circumstances in which international currency substitutability may have been overstated or understated.     

消费、福利与下岗--跨时期均值-方差效用模型

下岗政策在很大程度上降低了国企职工的消费需求,并使低能力职工处境恶化,使高能力职工处境改善,他们的政策支持度与其能力正相关,削弱下岗政策负作用的惟一途径是提高国企职工的预期收入和降低收入的不确定性。刺激职工消费需求的措施也能够增进职工的福利,因而存在政策一致性。一步到位的下岗方式可能导致无法想像的需求冲击,渐进式下岗至少在经济衰退时期更为可取,包括下岗在内的任何改革措施出台时机的选择要尽量逆经济风向而行。     

最优消费、经济增长与经常账户动态--从跨期角度对中国开放经济的思考

本文尝试构建一个开放条件下的消费行为、经济增长和经常账户动态的跨期均衡分析框架,以便从更广义的范畴来解释中国宏观经济运行的微观机制.而对政策和制度的分析也在本文讨论的范畴之内.     

Growth, Inequality, and Well-Being: Intertemporal and Global Comparisons

We use several well-being measures that combine average incomewith a measure of inequality to undertake intertemporal andglobal comparisons of wellbeing. The conclusions emerging fromthe intertemporal analysis are that the impact of these measureson temporal trends in well-being is relatively small on average,but changing across the decades. In particular, it suggeststhat changes in well-being were understated in the 1960s and1970s and overstated in the 1980s and 1990s. Our global analysiscovering ca. 81 per cent of the world's population demonstratesthat global well-being is at least 50 per cent smaller thanworld per capita income if the unequal income distribution isalso factored in. Conversely, growth in world well-being hasbeen larger than world income growth between 1970–1998.Since the inclusion of inequality has an important impact onwell-being comparisons, it is of great importance to generatemore consistent and intertemporally as well as internationallycomparable data on inequality. (JEL I31, D63)     

中国贸易顺差成因研究——基于跨时最优消费理论的实证分析

本文首先在跨时最优消费理论的基础上,建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型和相应的计量模型,然后运用Johansen协整分析法、Granger因果检验法及VEC模型对中国在1978—2006年间贸易顺差的成因进行实证研究。结果表明:长期而言,中国实际资本存量和实际资本使用成本与贸易顺差均具有显著的正相关关系而中国居民实际财富和政府实际消费支出与贸易顺差显著负相关;中国实际资本存量高速增长和居民实际财富缓慢爬升是贸易顺差快速增加的主要原因。短期内,实际资本存量与居民实际财富的变化对贸易收支的影响具有一定的滞后性,甚至会出现与长期关系相反的现象。根据上述分析结果,本文提出了相关的政策建议。     

Status,Risk-Taking and Intertemporal Substitution in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper examines intertemporal risk-taking in a stochastically growing economy with externalities in human capital accumulation where agents have preferences for social status. In order to isolate the effects of status concerns on long-run expected growth, the analysis is embedded in a non-expected utility setting, which disentangles the effects from risk aversion and intertemporal substitution. We examine the interaction between status desire and risk, risk aversion and intertemporal substitution. The externalities generated by the status game are able to correct the allocative distortions from the knowledge spillovers.Acknowledgement The author would like to thank an anonymous referee for his valuable comments.     

On Income Velocity of Money,Precautionary Money Demand and Growth

A stochastic growth model with money introduced via a cash-in-advance constraint is used to analyze the behavior of the income velocity of real monetary balances and money demand. Agents can purchase consumption goods only using government issued money. The cash-in-advance constraint may become nonbinding because of the uncertainty about the realization of the state of the economy. We find that the precautionary money demand may introduce significant changes into the volatility of the income velocity if it happens almost always. Its presence can also alter the relationship between the average growth rate of money supply and the average growth rate of the economy.     

生态环境、环境税与可持续经济增长

如何实现经济和生态环境的和谐发展,已经成为全球关注的焦点。文章把生态环境纳入生产函数和效用函数,构建一个考虑环境税的内生增长模型,运用最优控制方法求解模型的最优均衡解。并在此基础上,进一步探讨了生态环境与可持续经济增长的关系以及环境税对最优增长路径的影响。发现环境税的开征降低了最优增长路径上的经济增长率,却提高了人们的最优消费水平。而人们环境意识的提高可以帮助减小因环境税给经济增长率带来的冲击。     

Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Australia

This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to Australia, a persistent net importer of capital, during its post‐capital controls period 1984–99. The evolution of Australia’s current account balance is compared against a benchmark derived from an optimising model of intertemporal consumption smoothing. The consumption‐smoothing approach to the determination of the current account implies that international capital flows act as a buffer to smooth aggregate consumption in the face of temporary shocks to the economic fundamentals: changes in national cash flow (that is, changes in the level of output, investment or government spending). It is found that in the early 1990s a structural break occurred in the relationship between consumption and national cash flow, which coincides with a switch from debt‐financing to equity‐financing of the current account deficit. In the decade of the 1990s following this structural break (and unlike the decade of the 1980s which preceded this break), international capital flows to Australia implied a path for consumption which was broadly consistent with expected‐utility maximisation under the consumption‐smoothing model of the current account.     

货币选票与消费悖论

许多年来,庇古理论与帕累托最优一直被作为消费均衡理论的指南。庇古告诉人们,消费者所享受到的效用决定消费者的货币选票分布,每一消费者会由此产生一组特殊的消费偏好排序。综合所有消费者的消费选择,便形成了社会的消费偏好结构(或需求比例结构)。还可以由此确定最佳的生产资料结构和自然就业率。所以,生产者根据消费者的选择来确定生产,消费者的货币选票通过其对生产的内在引导作用间接决定了社会资源配置和经济福利。     

能源消费、煤炭消费与经济增长关系研究

能源是国家的战略性资源,煤炭是中国重要的能源之一,煤炭对我国经济发展起到了举足轻重的作用。研究能源消费、煤炭消费与经济增长的相互关系,对于发展经济具有重要的指导意义。运用我国GDP总量、能源消费总量和煤炭消费总量的数据,首先,得到我国煤炭消费收入弹性系数依然过高的结论;其次,建立协整与误差修正模型,并进行Granger因果关系检验,得出能源消费与经济增长、煤炭消费与经济增长之间长期是均衡的,能源消费与经济增长、煤炭消费与经济增长存在着协整与双向因果关系。最后,根据分析结论提出对策建议,即政府需要提供相关政策支持,建设国家煤炭储备体系,实施煤炭供应国际化战略,以保证能源供应安全,保证我国经济增长速度。     

Growth Effects of Taxation Under Altruism and Low Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution

An increase in the tax rate on capital income may raise the rate of economic growth when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is low and intergenerational transfers are absent. Since the strength of the bequest motive depends on tax rates, this paper provides conditions under which taxing capital income, and then reducing the labour income tax, is more growth enhancing than the classical policy of zero taxes on capital income, and vice versa.     

Risk Pooling, Precautionary Saving and Consumption Growth

In this paper we model the evolution of income risk and consumption growth. We decompose the time series innovation of the income process into its common and cohort-specific components. From these we compute conditional variances which are used as separate risk terms in a consumption growth equation. Using a long series of British household data we exploit the time-series variation to identify precautionary saving effects and find strong evidence of their importance. Specifically, after allowing for demographic and labour market status, there is an independent role for income risk in explaining consumption growth. Rather than the component that is common across cohorts, however, it is the cohort-specific element that is important in determining changes in consumption growth. This result points to a failure of between-cohort insurance mechanisms.     

温度驱动、经济增长与居民生活能源消费

在1阶段Becker-Grossman模型的基础上,引入日平均降雨量、人均总产出和地域虚拟变量,分析水旱灾害、温度、经济增长和地域差别因素对我国居民能源消费的影响。采用2004年~2011年30个省域数据建立面板模型,研究发现:(1)各省居民基础生活能源消费存在的明显的个体差异,欠发达地区和高海拔地区的生活能源消费基数较高;(2)我国居民能源消费形式已不同于上世纪90年代之前的灾害驱动型,而达到了与发达国家相似的温度驱动型时期,能源消费量与温度关系曲线呈U型,且温度调节的成本差异导致曲线左右不对称;(3)经济增长效应大于温度驱动效应,是近年来我国居民生活能源增加的主要原因,收入能源消费弹性系数仅为0.39,未来能源消费还会进一步增加。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。     

Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation in Italy: 1875–1994

In this paper, we examine econometrically the fiscal dominance model of the Monetary History of Italy proposed by Spinelli and Fratianni (1996). We test the proposition that monetary policy is endogenous to fiscal policy, and that such an endogeneity creates a specificity in the process generating Italian inflation. We perform our econometric tests by estimating a small structural linear econometric model, addressing carefully the issues of data-congruency of the specification, non-stationarity, cointegration, and credibility of the over-identifying restrictions. Our econometric investigation is based on a sample of annual observations from 1875–1994 and exploits the structural break which occurred in 1975, when Baffi became Governor of the Bank of Italy and the lack of independence of the central bank was first perceived as a problem. Baffi started the slow evolution process leading to the independence of the central bank, which was institutionally ratified by his successor Ciampi, when, in 1981, the Bank of Italy interrupted his commitment to buy all the government bonds left unsold in the public tenders (the divorce). Our empirical analysis over the sample 1875–1975 confirms the existence of a link between government deficit and money growth, and of a long-run relationship between the quantity of money and the price level; the evidence also stresses the relevance of supply side factors in the determination of inflation. When the model estimated for the sample 1875–1975 is applied to the period 1975–1994, a clear structural break in the relation between government deficits and money growth emerges. (J.E.L.: E5, E6).     

Voluntary Environmental Agreements vs. Emission Taxes in Strategic Trade Models

The purpose of the paper is to narrow the gap between the widespread use of voluntary agreements and research on the rationale of such approaches. A topical example are voluntary agreements of many industries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions because of global warming. If the industry anticipates that taxes and fees will be introduced in the coming years, it seems rational to act in advance in order to mitigate the tax levels.The conventional approach in strategic trade and tax models was to look at a two-stage game where governments set taxes first and then firms react. In such a policy regime the government is concerned about the international competitiveness of its firms and sets taxes below marginal damages. In this paper, we consider a policy regime with a reversed timing. Firms commit themselves in the face of emission taxes to abatement efforts and to lower levels of the environmentally intensive output. Then the government introduces the tax. Under this timing of strategies the tax is equal to marginal damage. Firms waive profit and reduce output in order to use less of the polluting input. The reward for this behavior will be a less strict use of policy instruments and hence lower abatement costs in the near future.     

居民杠杆、消费升级与经济平稳增长

居民杠杆风险已成为影响消费升级与经济平稳增长不容忽视的关键问题。基于扩展线性支出系统模型ELES获得各类消费品收入需求弹性,以高层次商品消费支出占比作为消费升级的度量指标,采用最新发展的TVPSV-FAVAR模型检验了居民杠杆对消费升级与经济平稳增长的时变影响机制。结果表明:居民加杠杆对消费升级的影响是一把双刃剑,短期内有助于消费升级,然而这种效果在长期内不具有持续性;短期内对经济增长具有抑制作用,而在长期内对经济增长则形成持续的促进作用;住房资产形成的财富效应大于流动性约束引致的抑制效应。     

Productive Consumption and Growth in Developing Countries

Productive consumption enables the satisfaction of current needs and increases the productive potential of labor. The productive-consumption hypothesis is of fundamental interest because it modifies the harsh intertemporal consumption tradeoff traditionally assumed. The incorporation of the productive- consumption hypothesis into a simple endogenous growth model reveals the following implications: (i) the possibility of a poverty-trap; (ii) the rule of optimal consumption turns into a modified Keynes–Ramsey rule; (iii) the (effective) IES is based on, inter alia , the technological opportunities to enhance human capital due to productive consumption; (iv) a rising saving rate; and (v) transitional dynamics to an asymptotic balanced-growth path.