技术性贸易壁垒的贸易转移效应之实证分析

本文分析了欧盟的技术性标准及法规对中国出口贸易的转移作用,以出口市场份额的变动来反应市场占有率的变化,从而推断出技术性贸易壁垒的转移效应。本文使用WTO/TBT委员会的TBT STC数据库并在对该数据库整理的基础上,搜集了欧盟主要的技术性措施及涉及的产品种类加以整理,采用系统GMM对动态面板数据进行回归。结果显示,欧盟的TBT措施的实施对中国的出口贸易产生了较大的转移作用。文章还特别就中国出口至欧盟的化学品和电子电气产品对TBT措施及关税进行回归,结果发现,TBT措施对这两类产品产生较大的转移作用,而关税的影响并不显着。     

Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extent Chinese and Korean products in the machinery industry compete with each other in the Japanese market. Empirical tests of panel data of 16 machinery products from 2000Q1 to 2012Q2 show that a decrease in the unit prices of Chinese exports leads to a decrease in the demand for Korean exports. In contrast, a decrease in the unit prices of Korean exports does not lead to a decrease in the demand for Chinese exports. In addition, lagged Chinese prices have bigger impacts on current Korean prices than lagged Korean prices on current Chinese prices. Simulation experiments investigating the impacts of a change in exchange rates on the Chinese and Korean export volumes also confirm that the Korean variables do not affect the Chinese export volume as much as the Chinese variables affect the Korean export volume. Overall, the findings in the present paper indicate that China has already emerged as a formidable competitor to Korea in the Japanese machinery market.     

美韩FTA对中国出口的贸易替代效应研究

美国和韩国于2007年6月正式签署了自由贸易协定。两国都是中国重要的出口市场,中美和中韩出口结构存在一定的竞争性。美韩FTA将会使中国出口产品面临相对较高的关税,差异性的关税可能使美国市场上中国出口产品被韩国替代,同时,韩国市场上中国出口产品也可能被美国替代。本文考察了三国HS2位编码产品的国际竞争力和平均实施关税,以定量估计美韩FTA对中国造成的贸易替代效应。结果表明,在美国市场上,中国的纺织品和服装出口将受到明显影响;在韩国市场上,中国农产品和工业品出口都会受到不同程度影响,且受影响的产品种类较多。     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

The impacts of food safety standards on China's tea exports

There have been growing concerns about the effects of food safety standards on agricultural trade throughout the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of food safety standards on tea exports from China, the world′s largest tea producer and exporter. To achieve this objective, the paper discusses the trends and nature of China′s tea production and export, analyzes changes on tea safety standards indicated by Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, Maximum Residual Limit (MRL) of pesticides and the coverage of tea safety standards concerning regulatory pesticides in major importing countries, and quantitatively estimates the impacts of food safety standards on China′s tea export based on a gravity model. The results show that the MRL of pesticides (e.g., endosulfan, fenvalerate and flucythrinate) imposed by importing countries have significantly affected China′s tea exports. The results also show that China′s tea exports have been significantly restricted when importing countries increase coverage of tea safety standards concerning regulatory pesticides.     

Do trade agreements increase Vietnam's exports to RCEP markets?

The paper reviews recent developments in trade relations between Vietnam and members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, and analyses the impacts on Vietnam's exports of tariff reductions in RCEP trading partners. The margin of tariff preferences is adopted as a proxy for the degree of trade liberalisation and a gravity model is used to assess the impacts of the tariff preferences under the AFTA and ASEAN+1 FTAs on Vietnam's major exports. The results show that the effects of tariff preferences differ between the types of preferences and products. The FTA tariff preferences do not exert a stimulating effect on the export of agricultural products but they have positive effects on several manufacturing exports such as garments and footwear.     

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and its impacts on the export efficiency of Hong Kong and Macao

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is a bilateral preferential agreement signed among China, Hong Kong, and Macao which opens up the China market by providing zero tariff after accession. This paper sheds light to the impacts of the CEPA on merchandise trade with an in-depth analysis on export efficiency. Despite that merchandise trade has already been fully liberalized, the estimation results indicate that the efficiency of exports to China has been on the decline since 2000. This implies that the actual value of exports to China has departed from its full potential, and confirms our suspicions on the incapability of the CEPA to boost the exports of Hong Kong and Macao to China. There is also no evidence to support that the CEPA has successfully attracted foreign investment to Hong Kong and Macao for tariff free exports to China.     

China’s exports in a protectionist world

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations exert equivalent effects on export volumes. This paper estimates tariff and exchange rate elasticities for China’s exports. The results indicate that, while exchange rates matter, tariffs increases deter exports almost three times as much as equivalent exchange rate appreciations do. The results also indicate that China’s flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.     

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China

Over the past three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties and countervailing duties. China has been at the receiving end of a large number of such measures. In this paper, we study how China's exports to its major trade partners have been affected when its major trade partners have used these measures either against China or against other countries. We find that Chinese exports to the country that imposed an antidumping duty decreased by approximately 35 percent. At the same time, an antidumping duty used by the importing country that was directed towards other countries but not against China led to an approximate 30‐percent increase in China's exports to the policy‐imposing country. These results remain robust across various specifications. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, the magnitude of these effects highlights why it is important to curb the recent widespread use of these barriers.     

Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effect of RMB-JPY volatility on Japan-China trade with a special emphasis on the impacts of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime implemented on July 21, 2005. We estimated two types of volatility measures (one based on the ARCH model and the other the usual standard deviation) utilizing daily data from Jan. 2002 through Dec. 2011 and examined both short-run and long-run effects of this volatility on exports of each country to the other with an ARDL approach. The results indicate that Japan's exports to China are not affected by the exchange rate volatility, but China's exports to Japan are negatively influenced during the reform period. Furthermore, the level of the exchange rate has no influence on Japanese exports, but it has a significant impact on Chinese exports. This asymmetric result may be due to differences in the depth of financial markets and in the maturity of exporters of the two countries.     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.     

A DIFFUSION MODEL OF THE PROCESS OF IMPLEMENTING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT

This paper uses a two-stage approach to investigate the process of adopting trade provisions of the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA), and to identify factors which influence the dynamic adoption process. First, logistic growth functions of the share of preferential exports in total exports over time are estimated to provide measures of the adoption rate and upper limit participation value for each CBERA beneficiary. The second step relates these estimated parameters to country-specific characteristics to identify factors responsible for intercountry differences in CBERA participation. Results indicate that the process of adopting provisions of a tariff preference scheme mirrors a dynamic diffusion process whereby beneficiaries increase their share of preferential exports in total exports to the United States over time.     

Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan and triad trade: A gravity assessment

The literature had paid little attention to the endogenous nexus between exchange rates and bilateral trade. In this paper, I use a gravity model to investigate the two-way causality between exchange rates and bilateral trade with data from China, Japan, and the United States during the 2002–2007 period. After controlling for the simultaneous bias between exchange rates and bilateral trade, the extensive empirical evidence shows that the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan against the dollar significantly reduced China's exports to the United States but had no significant effects on China's exports to Japan. These findings are robust to different measures, econometric methods, and period coverage.     

技术性贸易壁垒对浙江省外贸出口的影响和对策

技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)是不同于传统关税和非关税壁垒的新型措施,它已成为发达国家实行贸易保护的重要手段,这对浙江省的外贸出口带来极为不利的影响。本文在介绍了近年来TBT对浙江省外贸出口影响概况的基础之上,以美国为例对1996～2006年影响浙江省外贸出口的因素进行了回归分析,结果表明:美国GDP的增长有利于浙江省的外贸出口,而人民币的升值(美元贬值)和美国TBT的增加将对浙江的外贸出口带来不利的影响。文章最后从政府、企业和行业等三个角度提出了浙江省外贸出口应对TBT的相关对策建议。     

China＇s Import-exchange Rate Linkage： Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.     

Remedy or Poison: Impacts of China's Outward Direct Investment on Its Exports

During the past decade, China's outward direct investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, drawing increasing attention to the relationship between them. Using the gravity model based on panel data on China's ODI and trade to 174 countries and regions during 2003–2012, the present paper investigates the impacts of China's ODI on exports. We find that China's ODI to a host country significantly promotes China's trade with that economy: a 10‐percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14‐percent increase in exports, a 2.07‐percent increase in imports and a 2.87‐percent increase in net exports. The scale of the host country's economy, its infrastructure and its distance to China also have significant impacts on China's exports. Therefore, growth in ODI will facilitate China's trade and integration into the global economy, and enhance industrial upgrading in China by transferring the low‐end industries abroad.     

New Insights on US Aggregate and State Level Trade with the China Region

Aggregate trade data with breakdown into related and non‐related party components show that US multinational enterprises use different trading strategies in the China region relative to other countries. US trade with the China region in 2002–2007 is characterized by arm's‐length transactions. State‐level trade data show great variability in state engagement with the region through trade: exports to the region range from 1 to 28 percent of state exports. In addition, compared to exports to other countries, exports to the region are highly concentrated. At the extreme, for some states, 96–98 percent of exports to the region are computer and electronic products. Finally, gravity regressions show that state exports to Hong Kong are positively associated with the relative size of the Hong Kong‐born population in the states. There is no evidence that stricter labor regimes lead to lower state exports.     

Are China's Exports Crowding Out or Being Crowded Out? Evidence from Japan's Imports

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowded out those from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9‐digit product‐level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding‐out and crowded‐out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding‐out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China's own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China's export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded‐out effect could achieve win–win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value‐added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.     

How Will the Implementation of Zero Tariffs Affect Employment in China?

This paper studies the employment effect of China's possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China's most‐favored‐nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China's signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the tariff concessions in a typical high‐standard FTA. It finds that there is a large gap between China's current tariff status and a high‐standard FTA, and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries. However, the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous. Analysis at the industrial level shows that, although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs, more jobs would be created in most industries. The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive, creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China. Therefore, China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.     

Are China's unit labour costs still competitive? A comparison with ASEAN countries

The rapidly rising wages and renminbi (RMB) revaluation have attracted lively debate about whether China can continue its rapid economic growth by relying on labour‐intensive goods exports. By comparing the competitiveness in labour costs between China and ASEAN countries, with a particular emphasis on unit labour costs, we find that China has lost its competitiveness in labour costs relative to ASEAN countries. However, our results show that some regions in China, such as the northeast and northwest, still have an advantage relative to ASEAN countries. Thus, China can duplicate Akamatsu's Flying Geese Paradigm by transferring labour‐intensive manufacturing industry from its coastal areas to non‐coastal areas.