Individual preferences on trade liberalization: evidence from a Japanese household survey

This paper studies an individual’s preference on trade liberalization using a Japanese household survey, the Keio Household Panel Survey. As a result, we show that preferences toward trade liberalization are affected by economic factors (income, gender, family, asset, and job status) as well as noneconomic factors (noncognitive factors and behaviroal biases). We find that male, educated, and people with smaller family prefer trade liberalization. Furthermore, people who prefer liberty to equality and have less local patriotism, tend to be positive to trade liberalization.

     

Debt and household finance: evidence from the Financial Diaries

The Financial Diaries data-set is a unique, new set of year-long daily income, expense and financial transactions for households from three different areas of South Africa. These data show that over-indebted households (those that spend 20 per cent or more of their gross monthly income on debt) do not fit one homogeneous profile. Formal debt tends to be responsible for over-indebtedness in the urban areas, while in the rural areas the cause tends to be informal debt. In the urban areas high indebtedness is more prevalent among medium-income and high-income households, whereas in the rural areas it occurs at all income levels. High indebtedness in grant-dependent rural households tends to be persistent, whereas in wage-dependent urban households it is often short-lived. These findings present a new financial picture of poor rural populations that is unlikely to be touched by recent policy measures to address over-indebtedness.     

Housing price and household savings rates: evidence from China

This article investigates the effect of house prices on household savings rates in urban China employing the 2002 and 2007 data of the Chinese Households Income Project (CHIP). We find that the rapid appreciation of house prices cannot explain high Chinese households’ savings rates and the rising of Chinese savings rates. On the contrary, we find a negative relationship between house prices and household savings rates for home renters and homeowners. We do not find any evidence of ‘savings for housing purchase’ for young home renters when house prices increase. Their savings rates declined during housing market booms in recent 10?years. Savings rates of homeowners possessing multiple housing have decreased more because of ‘the pure housing wealth effects.’     

Gender exclusion in social security protection: evidence from Korea

This study provides an evaluation of the impact of Korea's stratified labour market on the gaps in wages and social security coverage using the raw data from the supplementary surveys conducted by the Korean National Statistics Office. The study confirms the existence of a labour market stratified by employment type/gender/unionised or non‐unionised/firm size. The labour market structure is not only reflected in the distribution of wages but also in the social security coverage. The empirical result suggests that gender and employment type are the key variables determining the likelihood of social security exclusion. With the other conditions controlled, the female worker has a 65 per cent likelihood of exclusion, and the non‐standard worker has a 40.9 per cent likelihood. For female non‐standard workers, the situation is worse. Their likelihood of exclusion from social security soars to 80.1 per cent. The empirical results with respect to other fringe benefits not mandated by law exhibit the same pattern of social security exclusion. The empirical results emphasise the limitations of gender policy intended to rectify gender discrimination or exclusion alone and suggest a matrix policy that takes into consideration the complex labour market structure.     

Access to savings and household welfare evidence from a household survey in The Gambia

In this study, we provide evidence on the impact of access to formal savings on household well‐being in The Gambia. Specifically, we study how access to formal savings can impact household outcomes such as total spending, ownership of durable assets, health spending, and education spending. Using a representative household survey and kernel ridge regression method, we find that household access to formal savings has a positive and statistically significant impact on all outcomes except health spending. Furthermore, we find that the largest effect size of access to savings is on education spending. However, the impact estimates on education and food expenditure are not very robust to a mild presence of hidden bias. Overall, we find a robust impact for total spending and asset ownership. Hence, increasing household access to formal savings can improve household well‐being in The Gambia.     

Indexation and household saving behavior: Some empirical evidence from finnish data

Zusammenfassung Indexierung und das Sparverhalten der privaten Haushalte: Empirische Evidenz aus Finnland. - In diesem Aufsatz werden finnische Daten über indexierte Depositenkonten benutzt, um die Wirkungen der Indexierung auf das Sparverhalten der privaten Haushalte empirisch zu belegen. Die Ergebnisse best?tigen, da\ bei Unsicherheit über die Inflationsrate die Absicherungsmóglichkeit einer voll indexierten Finanzanlage dazu führt, da\ sich der Anteil der indexierten Anlage am gesamten Sparkapital vergró\ert. Diese Folgerung scheint ziemlich stabil zu sein gegenüber verschiedenen N?herungswerten für das private Vermógen, Modifikationen des Grundmodells und der Sch?tzmethoden. W?hrend die Indexierung das Banksparen positiv beeinflu\t hat, konnte kein me\barer Einflu\ auf die Sparquote insgesamt nachgewiesen werden.

---

Résumé Indexation et le comportement d’épargne des ménages: Quelque évidence empirique des données finnoises. - Dans cet article des données finnoises concernant des comptes de dépót indexés sont utilisées pour trouver l’évidence empirique sur les effets de l’indexation sur le comportement d’épargne des ménages. Les résultats supportent la vue que la ?hedging? capabilité d’un actif complètement indexé favorise en présence de l’incertitude sur le taux d’inflation l’actif indexé. Cette conclusion semble être assez robuste après qu’ on a utilisé d’autres variables approximatives pour la richesse de ménage et modifié le modèle de base et les méthodes d’estimation. Pendant que l’indexation a fait monter la portion de l’épargne bancaire, il n’y a pas d’effet mesurable sur l’épargne total.

---

Resumen Indexación y ahorro de los hogares: evidencia empírica de datos finlandeses. - En este trabajo se utilizan datos de Finlandia sobre depósitos bancarios indizados para obtener evidencia empírica de los efectos de la indexación sobre el ahorro los hogares. Los resultados confirman la noción de que la capacidad de “hedging” de un activo integramente indizado bajo condiciones de inflación incierta causa una realocación através de una demanda de ?hedging? en favor de una parte mayor del activo indizado. Esta conclusión parece bastante robusta con respecto a las ?proxies? para el patrimonio de los hogares, modificaciones del modelo básico y los métodos de estimación. Los resultados empíricos con respecto al efecto sobre la cuota de ahorro no revelaron ning?n impacto mensurable. El ahorro bancario, por otro lado, resultó afectado positivamente.

     

Financial literacy,housing value and household financial market participation: Evidence from urban China

Using data from the 2012 consumer finance survey in China, we extend the literature on household finance by examining the effects of both financial literacy and housing value on household financial market participation, the role of which has been examined separately in the existing literature. The results show that financial literacy significantly improves the probability of household financial market participation, while the housing value has an obvious “crowding-out effect” on household financial market participation in urban China. Further research finds that the role of financial literacy in household financial market participation in households with a low housing value is stronger than that in households with a high housing value. Furthermore, the study of the regional differences shows that among households with a high housing value, financial literacy plays a more significant role in household bond market participation in less-developed cities. Among households with a low housing value, improvement in financial literacy plays a more significant role in household fund market participation in less-developed cities and under-developed cities. Our findings remain robust after alleviating potential bias due to endogenous problems by applying the instrumental variable (IV) method and propensity score matching (PSM) method. Finally, the paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.     

Testing the impact of financial inclusion on income convergence: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Financial inclusion, as a key pillar for inclusive development, has long been considered as an important instrument for reducing poverty and income inequality. However, the income convergence effect of financial inclusion remains only partially explored. Using longitudinal data covering three survey waves on Nigerian households, this study explores the potential of financial inclusion as an instrument for reducing income disparity. After controlling for the endogeneity issues, the results of instrumental variable linear and quantile regressions consistently show a strong nexus between financial inclusion and per capita income. This positive effect is experienced by all households regardless of income distribution. The decomposition results reveal that ab initio, financial inclusion resulted in income divergence leading to widening inequality across the households with various income distributions. However, the income convergence started from the middle to the higher income household categories, with the lowest income lagging behind in the second wave. The lowest income households eventually converged in the data of the third wave. In this sense, it can be argued that financial inclusion could play an important role in the reduction of income inequality.     

The small country assumption: A reassessment with evidence from Korea

Zusammenfassung Die Annahme eines ⋯kleinen Landes”. Eine überprüfung mit Daten aus Korea. — Es gibt kaum ?konometrische Belege für ⋯kleine” L?nder im Welthandel, weil das übliche Vorgehen bei der Sch?tzung von Parametern für die Exportnachfrage es ausschlie\t, Befunde für ein ⋯kleines” Land zu ermitteln. Die Verfasser entwickeln deshalb ein alternatives Verfahren, wobei die inverse Nachfragefunktion als Teil eines Systems der Exportangebots- und Exportnachfragefunktionen gesch?tzt wird, und wenden es auf den Fall koreanischer Maschinen und Transportmittel an. Dieses Verfahren liefert Ergebnisse, die statistisch besser und einleuchtender sind als diejenigen, die sich aus der traditionellen Methode der Sch?tzung von Exportnachfrageparametern ergeben.

---

Resumen El supuesto de país peque?o: un nuevo análisis con evidencia de Corea. — Casi no existe evidencia en favor de paises peque?os en el comercio mundial. Esto se debe a que el enfoque convencional para estimar los parámetros de la demanda de exportaciones excluye la posibilidad de encontrar evidencia de un país peque?o. Se desarrolla un enfoque alternativo estimando la función inversa de demanda como parte de un sistema de funciones de demanda y oferta de exportaciones y se lo aplica al caso de maquinaria y equipo de transporte coreanos. Este enfoque arroja resultados estadísticamente superiores y con más sentido que aquellos derivados del enfoque convencional para estimar los parámetros de la demanda de exportaciones.

---

Résumé La supposition d’un ?petit? pays: la réévaluation avec l’évidence de la Corée. — Il n’y a presque aucune évidence économétrique des ?petits? pays au commerce international. La raison est que l’approche conventionnelle pour estimer les paramètres de la demande d’exportation ne tient pas compte de trouver l’évidence d’un ?petit? pays. Dans l’article, on développe une méthode alternative: on estime la fonction de la demande inverse comme part d’un système des fonctions de l’offre et de la demande d’exportations et on l’applique au cas de l’équipement en machines et en transport en Corée. Cette méthode aboutit aux résultats qui sont statistiquement meilleurs que ceux dérivés de l’approche conventionnelle pour estimer les paramètres de la demande d’exportations.

     

A model of real and financial household behaviour

Summary This paper shows that the traditional specification of the consumption function in Dutch macroeconometric models is unsatisfactory. In the traditional approach the fact that the consumption decision is taken simultaneously with financial decisions has been ignored. If both the consumption function and the asset demand equations are modelled simultaneously, then in the Dutch case financial stocks have influence on private consumption. Also it has been shown that the income concept is important in describing household behaviour. In a current income model short-term financial considerations are important in the consumption decision. In a permanent income model long-term financial considerations influence private consumption.The author would like to thank Professor Th. van de Klundert, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Mr. G.H. Kuper and Dr. N.S. Kroonenberg for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

The value of institutions for financial markets: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets view election years negatively.     

Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data

The Japanese economy has experienced price deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation, there has been little recent research on price expectations in Japan. This paper takes advantage of an original and rich quarterly household-level data set from the “Kokumin Seikatsu Monitors” to estimate average price expectations, examine the factors that affect price expectations, and examine how changes in price expectations have affected household consumption. Our estimates indicate that average price expectations ranged from minus 0.2 to 0% in 2001 and 2002. However, there was an increase to 1% in the first quarter of 2003, followed by a decline to 0.2% in the second quarter, and a steady increase toward 0.8% by the first quarter of 2004. Price expectations depend on current price movements and lagged expectations. A series of quantitative easing monetary policies were not very effective in changing the price expectations, since the policy announcements caused revision of price expectations only for a small portion, i.e., 5–10% of people surveyed. The jump observed in the first quarter of 2003 was a reaction to the outbreak of the Iraq war. Our study also confirms that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durable consumption, by delaying the timing of purchases, suggesting that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to restore a vital Japanese economy.     

International cooperation on financial market regulation

International Economics and Economic Policy - At the latest the global financial crisis has raised the awareness of the need for a globally coordinated financial market regulation. Even though the...     

Foreign bank lending and information asymmetries in China: Empirical evidence from the syndicated loan market

This paper considers whether information asymmetries affect the willingness of foreign banks to participate in syndicated loans to corporate borrowers in China. We analyze how ownership concentration, which influences information asymmetries in the relationship between the borrower and the lender, exerts an impact on the participation of foreign banks in syndicated loans granted to Chinese borrowers in the period 2004–2009. We observe that greater ownership concentration of the borrowing firm does not positively influence participation of foreign banks in the loan syndicate. We conclude that information asymmetries are not exacerbated for foreign banks relative to local banks in China.     

The role of banks in financial integration: evidence from new EU members

EU enlargement involves the simultaneous liberalisation of goods and financial markets. While the issue of free trade in capital versus goods has frequently been the subject of study in international economics, the emphasis has typically been on physical capital (machines etc) rather than financial capital. This paper considers this distinction in a world with asymmetric information, moral hazard and hence credit rationing, and explores the resulting ambiguous theoretical predictions via an econometric analysis of the entry of the Central and Eastern European Countries to the EU.     

Monetary policy and financial investments of nonfinancial firms: New evidence from China

This paper develops a portfolio choice model by incorporating monetary policy and analyzes the determinants of financial investments of nonfinancial firms in China. Unlike the literature assuming financial investments are riskless, we allow risks in both financial and real investments in firms' portfolio choice model. Our theoretical framework suggests that monetary policy, relative risk in fixed investment, and the risk-adjusted return gap between financial and fixed investments are determinants of firms' financial investments. Using firm-level panel data over the period from 2006 to 2016, we find that the relative risk in fixed investment and quantitative expansionary monetary policy have led to rising financial investments of nonfinancial firms in China over the post-2008 financial crisis period, whereas the rate of the risk-adjusted return gap between financial and fixed investments plays no role in firms' financial investments. The impact of monetary policy on firms' financial investments is also interlinked with their ownerships, with distinct impacts emerging between state-owned and non-state-owned firms.     

Using group ratings to assess household food security: Empirical evidence from southern Africa

This article addresses the reliability and validity of household welfare rankings using the Group Ratings (GR) method. The GR aimed to measure the food security status of 142 households in seven villages in Malawi. Sets of informant groups rated households from their own community. Results show that the reliability of the method was no more than fair to moderate, and was particularly low for households falling in the middle category of 'intermittently food insecure'. Consensus ratings from the GR sessions were then compared with a number of alternative indicators of food security from a quantitative household survey. GR were associated with the more visible aspects of food security, such as household asset and livestock holdings, but associations with less visible aspects of food security were weaker. The strength of these associations varied from village to village.     

Financial risk exposure of returns to education: Panel evidence from Korea*

The present study examined financial market risk exposure of human capital returns, which are represented by the returns to education, using panel data for Korea. Overall, financial market shocks seem to be irrelevant to returns to education. However, when we divide a financial market shock into cash flow news and discount rate news leading to a negative risk premium, returns to education increase after positive news about future cash flows and unexpected increases in discount rates Therefore, the risk exposure to cash flow shocks is offset by the exposure to discount rate shocks. The returns to education of low‐income workers were significantly exposed to the cash flow risk as compared to those with a high income, but they were offset by the positive correlation to discount rate shocks. In contrast, considering the gap between generations, the old generation was not only less exposed to the cash flow risk compared to the young generation regarding returns to education but also positively correlated with the discount rate shock, resulting in less exposure to financial market risks.     

The effect of financial deepening on inequality: Some international evidence

This paper uses an unbalanced panel data analysis of 126 countries for the period 1963–2002 to analyze the effects of financial deepening on inequality. The principal findings can be summarized as follows: (1) financial deepening reduces inequality; (2) economic growth reduces the equalizing effects of financial deepening; (3) inequality increases with an increase in trade openness; (4) the disequalizing effects of trade openness decrease as a country grows; (5) financial deepening and trade openness therefore have asymmetric effects on inequality; and (6) these effects are robust to the choice of financial variables, inequality measures, and model specifications.