Bilateral Trade Performance in West Africa: A Gravity Model Estimation

This study provides empirical insights on the functioning of regional trade agreements within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by identifying bilateral trade barriers that affect the extent of trade flows among member countries. Also, it highlights some trade barrier indicators that are rarely covered in extant studies, such as the multilateral resistance term, the extent of trade complementarity, and the presence of economic integration agreements among ECOWAS member countries. We then provide augmented gravity model estimation on the determinants of bilateral trade in the region. We find, among other things, that trade complementarity had a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade within the sub‐region region. Other important determinants of intra‐regional trade include multilateral trade resistance and economic integration agreements — meaning that countries with some kind of agreement like the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) tend to trade more among themselves than other member countries.     

Economic diplomacy: The “one–China policy” effect on trade

Chinese foreign policy is mainly characterized by the Beijing consensus and the one-China principle in international relations. More precisely, the situation faced by Taiwan is a “core interest” in China's economic diplomacy strategy. We investigate whether the “one-China policy” (OCP) has had visible effects on bilateral trade flows. In other words, does the compliance of diplomatic commitments with China undermine Taiwanese trade and enhance China's trade position? Using a structural gravity model based on worldwide panel data for the period 1948–2012, we approximate the OCP through two dummy variables: the vote by countries of the UN resolution about China's recognition in 1971 and the existence of diplomatic ties with China. The first component of the OCP drastically increased on average in trade flows with China regardless of the vote of trading partners concerning this UN resolution as well as that for Taiwan. On average, results suggest that diplomatic relations with China improve bilateral trade flows for China, but a trade-deteriorating effect appears for Taiwan with certain ex-colonies. We also find that the effects of these economic diplomacy components confirm previous results reported for the period studied.     

The effect of the informal economy on bilateral exports from sub-Saharan African countries

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the informal economy on bilateral exports in sub-Saharan African countries. We use a gravity model, to which we add indicators of the informal economy and indicator variables for different economic regions. The study used Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Heckman estimation techniques on data from the period 2002–2018. The results show that the informal economy has a negative impact on bilateral inter-community exports and a positive impact on bilateral intra-community exports. These results thus support the idea that the informal economy can accelerate the integration of regional economic communities and ultimately facilitate the establishment of bilateral export free trade areas at the continental level.     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.     

Explaining nineteenth‐century bilateralism: economic and political determinants of the Cobden–Chevalier network1

This study investigates the empirical determinants of the treaty network of the 1860s and 1870s. It makes use of three central theories about the determinants of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) formation, considering economic fundamentals from neoclassical and ‘new’ trade theory, political‐economy variables, and international interaction due to trade diversion fears (dependence of later PTAs on former). These possible determinants are operationalized using a newly constructed dataset for bilateral cooperation and non‐cooperation among 13 European countries and the US. The results of logistic regression analysis show that the treaty network can be explained by a combination of ‘pure’ welfare‐oriented economic theory with political economy and international interaction models.     

“Linguistic Distance” as a Determinant of Bilateral Trade

We introduce a measure of language difficulty called “linguistic distance” into a modified gravity model to determine whether a language being further away from English affects the level of trade. Our sample of 36 non-English-speaking countries includes Japan and South Korea, which we argue are special cases because of World War II, the Korean War, and subsequent close political and economic ties with the United States. Presence of a stock of immigrants in the home country has been shown to enhance trade with the country of origin. Controlling for immigrant network and information attributes, the special relationship with Japan and Korea, and the standard gravity model variables, we find that trade will be less between the United States and a country the further that country's language is from English. These results hold for aggregate exports and imports and for exports and imports of consumer and producer manufactures.     

Time differences,communication and trade: longitude matters II

This paper uses a gravity model to examine the effect of time differences between countries on international trade. It builds on previous studies of this issue by including a wider set of control variables, focusing on a longer time period, and testing a series of related hypotheses. The results show that time differences have a negative impact on merchandise trade, with each hour of time difference reducing trade by between 2 and 7 %, although the size of the effect has fallen in recent decades. There is also evidence that the negative impact of time differences is smaller where mechanisms of formal contract enforcement are stronger, and where co-ethnic networks are more prevalent, and that time differences reduce bilateral telephone traffic as well as trade. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that time differences reduce trade by raising the non-pecuniary costs of travel and communication.     

The determinants of service offshoring: Does distance matter?

The importance of distance for international trade remains an unsettled issue. Innovations in information technology have reduced the costs of offshore outsourcing of services. However, empirical studies using the gravity model continue to demonstrate that distance is important for merchandise and service trade. We estimate a gravity model of the determinants of service trade. After we properly control for all non-transport trade costs, including information barriers, and multilateral resistance terms as suggested by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), we show that the remaining influence of distance is negligible.     

The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services

The main purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of various factors on bilateral services trade, relative to that on bilateral goods trade. To accomplish this purpose, using the standard gravity model, we ran regressions on bilateral services trade and goods trade between 10 OECD member countries and other economies (including OECD member and nonmember countries) for the years 1999 and 2000. One main and interesting result is that services trade is better predicted by gravity equations than goods trade. Another interesting result is that there is a complementary relationship between goods exports and services imports. JEL no. F10, F20, L51, F80     

Autarky in Franco's Spain: The costs of a closed economy

Between the 1940s and 1970s, Spain used a variety of economic policies that hindered international trade. Because the mix of tariffs, quotas, administrative barriers, and exchange rate regimes varied greatly over time, the quantification of the effect of the various trade policies on international trade in this period is particularly elusive. In this paper, we use historical bilateral trade flows and a structural gravity model to quantify the evolution of Spain's border thickness, a summary measure of its barriers to international trade. We find that Spain's borders in the period 1948–75 were thicker than those of any other country in Western Europe, even after the liberalization of trade that started in 1959. These comparatively higher impediments to international trade implied substantial negative effects on consumer welfare. We estimate that accumulated welfare costs over the period 1948–75 exceed 20 per cent of a year's total consumption.     

中国对外双边贸易成本的测度研究——以亚洲贸易伙伴为例

基于Novy(2006)提出的具备微观基础的引力模型,本文综合测度了中国与亚洲主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易成本。结果表明,中国与这些国家(地区)的贸易成本自上世纪80年代以来出现了不同程度的下降趋势。与此同时,我们还考察了贸易成本的下降对中国与亚洲国家(地区)双边贸易的增长效应,对我们样本中的大多数国家(地区)而言,贸易成本下降对双边贸易增长的贡献率相对要大于经济增长的贡献率。通过实证研究我们进一步探讨了双边贸易成本的决定因素和条件趋同性,最后揭示了本文研究的政策性涵义。     

Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?

This paper estimates gravity equations for bilateral services trade in a sample of 28 countries. It finds that the standard gravity variables of economic size and geographic proximity are significant factors in services trade. It also reveals positive effects of linguistic ties on services trade. There is evidence of a positive link between regional trade arrangements and services trade. Much of that effect appears to reflect the impact of bilateral goods trade on services trade. This implies that efforts to enhance goods trade—bilateral or multilateral—should lead to more services trade as well. JEL no. F13, F15, L80     

Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the determinants of bilateral trade flows among 47 countries and, particularly, the effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas: European Union (EU), North-American Free Trade Area NAFTA), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Centro-American Common Market (CACM), and other Mediterranean countries (MEDIT). The period under study is from 1980–99. The authors estimate a gravity equation that allows the comparison of the weight of the influence of preferential agreements and also, infers the relevance of other determinants of bilateral trade flows such us geographic proximity, income levels, population, and cultural similarities. The analysis is undertaken for each year of the sample in order to capture the temporal evolution of the impacts on trade of the different variables considered. Using the estimation results as a base, trade potentials resulting from new free trade agreements are calculated.     

Is SAARC a viable economic block? evidence from gravity model

Intra-South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) trade appears to be very small compared to other existing regional blocks. This might be because of normal outcome or because of unexplored trade opportunity. If the latter is the case, then increased trade within this region might be welfare improving. This study attempts to make a formal analysis of these issues, and estimates a gravity model of international trade to examine whether intra-SAARC is lower or higher than what is predicted by an economic model. This gives an idea about the structure of comparative advantage in the SAARC countries that helps to explain why intra-SAARC trade is low and how trade among them can be increased. It also helps us to understand the possibility of trade creation and trade diversion effect resulting from South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangements among SAARC countries. Whereas the gravity model has been extensively used to measure bilateral trade among countries, they have, to the best of my knowledge, never been used to measure intra-SAARC trade. Our gravity model results suggest that SAARC member countries are yet to achieve trade-creating benefits. Appropriate policies need to be formulated for more regional integration. Liberalization of trade in SAARC countries offers significant gains for all the economies in the region. Efforts should be made to liberalize border trade and strengthen bilateral trade relations through the removal of tariff and nontariff barriers in the general framework of South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangements.     

Does Cultural Distance Hinder Trade in Goods? A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Member Nations

We examine the effect of cultural distance, a proxy for the lack of a minimum reservoir of trust necessary to initiate and complete trade deals, on bilateral trade flows. Employing data for 67 countries that span the years 1996–2001, we estimate a series of modified gravity specifications and find that cultural dissimilarity between nations has an economically significant and consistently negative effect on aggregate and disaggregated trade flows; however, estimated effects vary in magnitude and economic significance across measures of trade and our cohort of OECD reference countries. The consistently negative influence of cultural distance indicates that policymakers may wish to consider mechanisms that enhance the build-up of trust and commitment when seeking to facilitate the initiation and completion of international trade deals. Our findings also imply that coefficient estimates from related studies that do not account for the trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance may be biased.     

The impact of information and communication technology on international trade in fruit and vegetables in APEC

The global food marketing network is being constantly reshaped, providing opportunities and challenges for information and communication technology (ICT) to develop and improve international trade in food products. A gravity model of international trade is employed to see if ICT positively affects bilateral international trade in fruit and vegetables between member Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies. We examine if the use of the Internet, mobile telephones, and fixed telephone lines determine the value of bilateral trade. Empirical results for the importance of ICT differ markedly between importing activities and exporting activities in the international value chain of fruit and vegetables in APEC countries. Changes in ICT levels in the import sector of the value chain have no effect on international trade in fruit and vegetables. However, in the export sector, growth in some ICT products has significant positive effects on trade in fruit and vegetables between APEC countries. Surprisingly, the strongest impact was discerned for the traditional form of ICT, fixed telephone lines, but this impact probably reflects the fact that fixed telephone lines are a proxy variable for the general level of infrastructure development. Of the two digital ICTs, mobile telephony and the Internet, only the Internet had a significant impact on trade levels. The further development of the Internet and its diffusion should make exporters in APEC countries more competitive in the fruit and vegetables value chain, and boost their trade values in these products.     

The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

Transportation and The International Trade of Eastern and Southern Africa

We use new data on transportation to determine its effect on the international trade of eastern and southern Africa (ESA). The effects were estimated with gravity models using alternative techniques to check for robustness. Freight forwarders provided information on freight charges (price), average duration of shipment (time) and variability in time. The new transportation variables and the more commonly used distance variable appear to have smaller effects overall than some previous research indicated, although our distance coefficient is identical to that of Coulibaly and Fotagné for West Africa. In contrast to other research critical of distance as a proxy for transport impediments, we find similar effects from distance and our measure of transport time, but both of these variables have significantly larger coefficients than price and variability. Landlocked ESA countries are twice as dependent on trade as the whole region after accounting for control variables, but they are not significantly more affected by changes in price and time, and they are less affected by distance and variability. The relative size of the time coefficients suggests that measures to lessen delays in shipping, for instance, faster border clearance, might encourage more trade than cost cutting measures that lowered price proportionately.     

Do Currency Barriers Solve the Border Effect Puzzle? Evidence from the CFA Franc Zone

In this paper, we use a gravity model to investigate the extent to which currency barriers explain the border effect puzzle, i.e. the impact of national borders on international trade. We focus on the two monetary unions of the CFA Franc Zone in West and Central Africa. We find that these countries display large border effects, and that currency barriers explain between 17 per cent and 28 per cent of the overall border effect. JEL no. F11, F15, F33     

Regional Integration,Bilateral Diplomacy and African Trade: Evidence from the Gravity Model

The paper examines the impact of two main instruments of economic diplomacy — regional integration and commercial diplomacy on export flows among African states. We test whether there is any evidence of a trade‐off or complementary interaction between these two instruments in trade facilitation using the gravity model for 45 African states over the period 1980–2005. The results show that bilateral diplomatic exchange is a more significant determinant of bilateral exports among African states compared to regional integration. We also find that the trade–stimulating effect of diplomatic exchange is less pronounced among African countries that shared membership of the same regional bloc.