Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems

We investigate the extent to which a common currency basket peg would stabilize effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies. We use an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit), which is a weighted average of ASEAN10 plus 3 (Japan, China, and Korea) currencies, as a common currency basket to investigate the stabilization effects. We compare our results with another result on stabilization effects of the common G3 currency (the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro) basket in the East Asian countries [Williamson, J., 2005, A currency basket for East Asia, not just China. In: Policy Briefs in International Economics, No. PB05-1. Institute for International Economics]. We obtained the following results: first, the AMU peg system would be more effective in reducing fluctuations of the effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies as a number of countries applied the AMU peg system increases in East Asia. Second, the AMU peg system would more effectively stabilize the effective exchange rates than a common G3 currency basket peg system for four (Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand) of the seven countries. The results suggest that the AMU peg system would be useful for the East Asian countries whose trade weights on Japan are relatively higher than others. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 590–611.     

人民币钉住一篮子货币研究

人民币汇率制度改革使得钉住一篮子货币再次受到人们的广泛关注。关于人民币钉住一篮子货币,以往相关文章往往只停留在政策建议的层面或钉住美元与钉住一篮子货币之争上,对于具体该如何钉住一篮子货币,没有进行过全面系统的阐述。通过建立模型,就如何选择篮子货币、如何确定最优权重等问题进行全面细致地探讨,之后通过试算,观察在钉住一篮子货币的情况下人民币对主要货币汇率的走势,最后把模拟值与实际值进行比较,并对比较结果进行分析。     

货币政策目标和篮子货币最优权重的选取——基于贸易收支稳定的视角

本文首先建立模型分析在使贸易收支变动方差最小化条件下,汇率指数最优权重的选取,也就是把汇率指数的构建和货币政策的目标结合起来。本文构建了国际收支变动关于篮子货币权重的理论模型,根据贸易收支方差波动最小获得篮子货币的最优权重。进一步,本文对最优权重进行了数值模拟分析,得到出口或进口稳定的最优篮子货币的权重,在此基础上,本文模拟了人民币对美元汇率的走势,并比较了有效汇率稳定目标下篮子货币的权重和人民币对美元汇率的变化。结合宏观经济政策目标重新确定参考篮子货币汇率指数权重,有利于完善和建立参考一篮子货币的汇率制度,为篮子货币制度制定提供理论指导。     

Exchange rate regime switching in Malaysia and Singapore in response to China’s move to a basket peg: A DSGE analysis

Motivated by the observation that when China broke from its US dollar peg in 2005, Malaysia and Singapore likewise loosened their currency ties to the US dollar, this paper considers how these two countries might best respond to a hypothetical transition by China to a new basket peg regime. We specify five alternative exchange rate strategies that encompass fixed, basket, and floating regimes and gradual versus sudden transitions. To project outcomes for macroeconomic variables under these alternative regimes, we apply a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and incorporate exogenous shocks as actually occurred from 2005 Q1 to 2014 Q4. We then compare the strategies based on values of a cumulative loss function defined on the output gap, the inflation rate, and the real effective exchange rate. The exercise reveals that a gradual adjustment to a basket peg with long-term optimal weights is the first-best policy for both countries, where optimal weights are derived to minimize the loss function. Further, both a sudden shift to a basket peg with optimal weights and a sudden shift to a floating rate regime are superior to maintaining the dollar peg in Malaysia, but not to maintaining the existing basket peg in Singapore.     

Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer in Search of a Question?

This paper considers whether an intra regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could play a useful role in official exchange rate surveillance. Recently, proponents of an Asian currency basket have referred to the role the European Currency Unit played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators as evidence of the usefulness of intra regional currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. The paper shows that such indicators have a number of features that can lead to them obscuring underlying changes in exchange rates and that the signals they emit will often be difficult to interpret. In addition, the use of regional currency baskets for surveillance can lead to potentially serious N − 1 problems in circumstances when there is not agreement about which regional currencies will be the anchor currencies.

Was it really a dollar peg?: The exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, 1980–1997

This paper examines the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries during the period preceding the currency crisis of 1997, in an attempt to ascertain the extent to which they could be considered, as they frequently are, as a dollar peg. We do so by estimating the implicit weights of foreign currencies in the nominal exchange rate determination of East Asian currencies by means of a time-varying parameter model. The crucial element of our approach concerns how the weight of the Japanese yen was altered in response to the movement of the yen–dollar exchange rate. It is found that, while the weight of the U.S. dollar was large and the weight of the Japanese yen was small for the period as a whole, the weight of the yen was raised in some of the countries in the early 1990s. In particular, the Korean and Malaysian authorities raised the weight of the yen when the yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar, while the Singaporean authorities raised the weight of the yen when the yen appreciated against the dollar.     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.     

Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model

An important characteristic of trade in Asia is that the US dollar is the dominant invoicing currency. This fact might have a consequence on the region's choice of the currency regime. To investigate this possibility, I develop a three country “new open economy macroeconomics” model that consists of East Asia, Japan, and the US. Assuming that East Asia pegs its currency to a basket of the other two's currencies, the optimal basket weights are derived numerically. It is shown that the weights under a realistic invoicing pattern are drastically different from those in the textbook case of “producer currency pricing.” J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 569–589.     

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.     

How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?

In this paper, we have constructed a theoretical model in which the Asian firm maximizes its profit, competing with the Japanese and the U.S. firms in their markets. The duopoly model is used to determine export prices and volumes in response to the exchange rate fluctuations vis-à-vis the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. Then, the optimal basket weight that would minimize the fluctuation of the growth rate of trade balance was derived. These are the novel features of our model. The export price equation and export volume equation are estimated for several Asian countries for the sample period from 1981 to 1996. Results are generally reasonable. The optimal currency weights for the yen and the U.S. dollar are derived and compared with actual weights that had been adopted before the currency crisis of 1997. For all countries in the sample, it is shown that the optimal weight of the yen is significantly higher than the actual weight.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 256–304. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan; Department of Commerce, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan; Department of Commerce, Takachiho University, Suginami, Tokyo 168, Japan.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F31, F33, O11.     

Welfare Implications of Currency Integration: Labor Mobility and Pricing-to-Market

In this paper, we examine the welfare cost of renouncing monetary policy autonomy in a model that includes labor mobility and pricing-to-market (PTM) behavior in firms. We find that renouncing monetary policy autonomy becomes a cost of currency integration when the consumption basket weights differ between candidate countries and when country-specific total factor productivity (TFP) shocks hit economies, even when the union fulfills the classic optimum currency area theory of labor mobility. We also found that a firm's PTM behavior has a significant effect on the welfare implications of currency integration combined with labor mobility. For instance, currency integration does not produce greater welfare losses in the PTM case (where the labor input weights differ across member countries and asymmetric labor disutility shocks occur), although greater welfare losses arise in the case of producer currency pricing.     

Strong Currency and Weak Currency

This paper presents a two-country model in which two currencies compete with each other. There exists an equilibrium in which the two currencies with different rates of inflation circulate as media of exchange despite neither currency being required to be used for transactions. Taxes payable in local currency and asymmetric injection of fiat money by the government through purchases of a certain good generate demands even for the currency with a higher inflation rate. In such an equilibrium, the government that issues the currency with a lower rate of inflation collects seigniorage not only from its own residents but from the residents of the other country provided that the rate of inflation is positive. The strong currency in the sense of a low inflation rate becomes an international medium of exchange. Policy games, in which the two governments simultaneously choose and commit to tax rates and inflation rates, are also examined. We show, among other things, that the equilibrium rate of inflation is zero in this policy game. In other words, unlike a common argument, the rate of inflation does not go below zero. This result is due to the fact that a negative rate of inflation induces a negative amount of seigniorage andvice versa. Some alternative currency regimes are examined. Even for a country with a weak currency, abandonment of its currency leads to a lower level of welfare. Monetary unions are briefly discussed as well.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 199812(4), pp. 305–333. University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.     

Vertical trade and China's export dynamics

This paper examines how China's exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries that supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intra-regional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of other Asian currencies does not necessarily hurt China's exports, as imported intermediate goods could become cheaper. The effect of intermediate goods costs depends critically on the share of intermediate goods used in China's export goods production and the degree of exchange rate pass-through in imported intermediate goods prices. If prices for intermediate goods are not very sticky, the effect through this channel could be large, and China's exports could even benefit. We find that these findings do not depend on China's choice of currency invoicing between the RMB and the US dollar or the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes.     

Monetary Integration In Eastern And Southern Africa: Choosing A Currency Peg For Comesa

African countries involved in monetary integration projects have been advised to peg their currencies against an external anchor before the definite fixing of exchange rates. In this study, we estimate optimum currency area indices to determine, between four alternatives, which international currency would be the most suitable anchor for Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) members and for a set of other selected African economies. We conclude that the euro and the British pound prevail over the US dollar or the yen; that the euro would be the best pegging for most, but not all, COMESA members; and that some of these economies display evidence of more intense integration with third countries, with which they share membership in other (overlapping) regional economic communities, than within COMESA.     

A tale of Asian exchange rate management: Romance of the three currencies

Asian currencies lack regional policy coordination and are therefore subject to volatilities such as the Asian currency crisis of 1997/99. As the Asian currencies have already been observed to be ‘flying-in-unison’, a stable exchange rate arrangement can be helpful as the next step of evolution for regional financial stability. We consider that creating a cluster effect from coordinated efforts/policies of policy-makers can lead to regional exchange rate stability. To demonstrate this cluster effect, a three-party-game is computed for an Asian bloc, viz-á-viz US dollar and the Euro, based on a Nash and a cooperative equilibrium. The cluster effect would generate external and internal pressures that work towards the formation of a regional currency, although the exact form of exchange rate regime would have to await political consensus. There are substantial welfare gains within Asia network economy through currency cooperation. The formation of an Asian currency bloc would also create counter-balance to the current dominance of the US dollar and the Euro. Like the epic story of Three Kingdoms who sought hegemony in Chinese history, the Asian currency bloc will contend with many possible outcomes of competition as well as cooperation.     

Is Asian Currency Unit Attractive to East Asian Economies？

Pegging the RMB exchange rate to the Asian currency unit (ACU) has not, at least in the short term, been proved a better solution than pegging to the US dollar or pegging to a G‐3 (US$, Japanese yen and euro) currency basket. Although the Asian currency unit can help Asian economies to keep the relative price of regional currencies stable, the cost of joining a formal regional monetary cooperation is the relinquishment of the autonomy of their domestic policies. Asian monetary cooperation needs to provide more potential benefits if it is to attract Asian economies. We argue that Asian monetary cooperation should be designed to solve the problem of regional trade imbalance, and regional exchange rate policy coordination should be adopted as the first step towards exchange rate cooperation. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang)     

Chinese Yuan after Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform

I. Introduction The Chinese government announced its change in exchange rate system from the dollar peg system into a managed floating exchange rate system “with reference to” a currencybasket on 21 July 2005 1. The exchange rate system reform has been regarded as a historical?2006 The Authors regime switching in China. This Chinese government decision has preferable effects on neighboring countries in choosing exchange rate system or exchange rate policy because the monetary authorities …     

基于人民币国际化视角的人民币汇率形成机制改革问题研究

本文从人民币国际化的研究视角,分析货币国际化与汇率形成机制之间的内在联系,并通过人民币与美元、欧元、日元等主要货币的国际化程度的比较,揭示人民币国际化尚处在起步阶段,人民币汇率形成机制改革是直接影响人民币国际化进程的重要因素。在此基础上,本文探讨了人民币汇率形成机制为何采取钉住一篮子货币的改革方案,继而提出推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,促进人民币国际化的若干政策建议。     

Should East Asia’s currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency

Growing concern that a dollar peg exposes East Asian economies to fluctuations in the dollar–yen exchange rate has stimulated research on currency basket regimes as alternatives for these economies. However, existing studies have mostly ignored an important characteristic of East Asia, i.e., most of its international trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollars. This paper investigates how the preponderance of dollar invoicing affects optimal currency basket regimes for East Asian economies. I develop a three-country center-periphery sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the analysis. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximations to the policy functions with the expected lifetime utility of households chosen as the welfare criterion. Contrary to the conjecture of existing literature, I show that predominance of dollar invoicing implies that the dollar should receive a smaller weight than suggested by bilateral trade shares between emerging markets in East Asia and the United States. The results hinge on the interaction of different degrees of pass-through implied by the choice of invoice currency and endogenous responses of monetary policies in the center countries.