The delphi technique: an exposition and application

The article provides a n overview of the Delphi technique and its related adaptations, as well as practical hints on procedures gained from its use to forecast changes in the market analysis industry. The Lielphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future ofestab1ish:ed industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a nascent industry. A case is presented which suggests that companies i n nascent industries have a greater need for long-range planning than those at other stages of a n industry's development, and a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgmental forecasting techniques in new industries. The review of the Delphi process highlights some of the major considerations, s,uch as panel selection, questionnaire construction and administration, response analysis and number of rounds, as well as how Delphi can be modified. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to curry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.     

The delphi technique: an exposition and application

The article provides a n overview of the Delphi technique and its related adaptations, as well as practical hints on procedures gained from its use to forecast changes in the market analysis industry. The Lielphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future ofestab1ish:ed industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a nascent industry. A case is presented which suggests that companies i n nascent industries have a greater need for long-range planning than those at other stages of a n industry's development, and a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgmental forecasting techniques in new industries. The review of the Delphi process highlights some of the major considerations, s,uch as panel selection, questionnaire construction and administration, response analysis and number of rounds, as well as how Delphi can be modified. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to curry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.     

From information society to biosociety? On societal waves, developing key technologies, and new professions

The article discusses the possible societal transition from information society toward biosociety. Furthermore, the impacts of this possible transition on professional and educational branches (PEBs) are examined. It is based on the study completed in Lahti Center at the Helsinki University of Technology between years 2001-2003. In the study, the most important developing key technologies were defined and their impacts on professions analysed through the application of Delphi technique. The developing key technology groups were information and communication technology, biotechnology, and material and nanotechnology. In addition, combinations of these technologies, that is, so-called fusion technologies, were also subjects for analysis. The first empirical aim was to analyse the plausibility and the timing of the so-called technological theses. The following technologies (technological theses) were deemed to be the most important ones: highly selective drugs, sensors, integrated technology, biomedical materials, photonic materials, 3G technology, intelligent materials, diagnostics, and virtual reality. The second empirical objective of the study was to analyze the professional and educational impacts of these technologies. Moreover, the article takes an experimental glance into the future through the creation and evaluation of “future professions”.     

Directions in Delphi developments: Dissertations and their quality

The general question of whether Delphi users have learned from Delphi research of the past decade is addressed in this article. Within the wider context of Delphi expansion anddevelopment, specific attention is given to examining the nature and quality of the growing number of Delphi dissertations. Although there are some signs for encouragement, the findings from the sample of dissertationsexamined might also give cause for some concern. Findings raise continuing questions related to excellencein the execution of Delphi studies and also to the concentration of applications of the technique in certain fields. It appears that the future of Delphi could be brighter if users of the technique would be more careful in implementing “quality control.”     

The decision Delphi

If Delphi is used as a prognostic tool in the social sciences, it runs the danger of producing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a Delphi application conducted at the Austrian Academy of Sciences about the present situation and future developments of the scientific-technical information and documentation system in Austria, an attempt was made to apply this principle intentionally.A group of actual decision makers in this field were included in a Delphi panel and were therefore confronted with problems and possible future developments in a field which is considerably influenced by their own actions. The Delphi method was therefore used to structure the decision-making process and to help to “create” the future in reality rather than just predicting it. In this way, an attempt was made to transfer an important field of socioeconomic development from a pattern of accidental development through uncoordinated decisions toward a pattern of broad discussion among all involved social groups and thus toward goal-oriented and well-considered management.It seems that this study represents a further variant of the well-known Delphi technique, a variant which has fundamental differences from the classical and the policy Delphi. For a Delphi application of this type the expression “Decision Delphi” is suggested.     

Technological forecasting: Applicability,relevance and future crisis analysis in a developing country

The relevance of technological forecasting for a developing country with examples from the Indian scene is discussed. The applicability of some of the techniques of technological forecasting under Indian conditions is examined. It is shown that certain parameters in India follow systematic semilogarithmic and substitution trends, as in the case of developed countries, and these trends may be extrapolated into the future with some confidence.Using mainly extrapolation technique, a future crisis analysis for the Indian situation up to the year 2000 is presented. Steps have been suggested to avert the impending crisis. These include (1) determination of future supply and demand positions of various basic materials; (2) conducting Delphi exercises; (3) selection of the best alternatives in view of resource constraints using economic analysis; (4) wide dissemination of the results to make the decisionmakers and scientists aware of these possible solutions; (5) framing suitable policies and executing them, starting now, so that the desired future becomes a reality.     

Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994)

Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the early 1950s at the Rand Corporation, different variations of Delphi have evolved in an effort to meet the unique forecasting needs of different decision makers. This bibliographic study surveys the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975–1994). A total of 463 papers were identified out of which 254 papers treat Delphi as a primary subject while the remaining 209 papers treat Delphi as a secondary subject. The study concludes with a brief commentary on the Delphi technique that may be useful for researchers and practitioners in qualitative forecasting.     

The Delphi technique: An experimental evaluation

Much research has been devoted to the Delphi technique. However, very little substantive work has been done on the subject of Delphi accuracy. The purpose of this effort was to test the accuracy of Delphi vs the conference method in making long-range forecasts. College students were used to form Delphi and conference groups that predicted the point spreads of college football games far in advance of play. The results substantiate the claim that Delphi outperforms conference methods on the basis of accuracy for long-range forecasting.     

Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research

The cornerstone of good research is establishing integrity. However, identifying and gauging methodological rigour for the Delphi technique remains elusive. This is due to a number of reasons such as the ongoing epistemological debate, along with continual modifications. Consequently, the scant studies exploring rigour are mainly experimental, component specific and outdated. This paper discusses the literature on establishing rigour in Delphi studies, the methodological trinity of reliability, validity and trustworthiness. In addition it presents a discussion of the principal forms of establishing rigour, such as the application of rigour using both qualitative and quantitative measurements and corroborating results with relevant evidence in the field for each individual Delphi. Addressing such issues will help enhance the development and utilisation of rigour in the future.     

Delphi as a tool for identifying future appropriate technologies in India

The concept of appropriate technologies with particular reference to developing countries like India is discussed. It is suggested that appropriate technologies should: (1) include the entire range of technologies from very primitive to very modern, (2) be available when required, and (3) have the maximum impact on the largest fraction of the poorest sections of the population, especially through increasing employment. The problem of identifying appropriate technologies that would meet these criteria has also been discussed. In this article we have attempted to use the Delphi technique of technology forecasting for identifying future appropriate technologies in the areas of food, health, and energy using respondents in India. Subsequently, we have analyzed our results in terms of the criteria previously assigned to appropriate technologies and have thereby evaluated our experiment.It is concluded that the Delphi is an adequate first step in identification of such technologies; however, it must be followed by more rigorous techniques (possibly quantitative) for assigning further priorities within the technologies identified by the Delphi. This will help in arriving at suitable policy decisions and allocation of funds to a few of the most important areas.Finally, two alternate scenarios have been presented (using the Delphi results as well as our own perceptions and observations of the Indian society), depending on whether appropriate technologies and policies are adopted.     

Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting, and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities The Korean Exercise

This article summarizes and discusses major findings of the Korean Delphi. The Korean Delphi was first carried out on a large scale. The results of the Korean Delphi include the forecast time of realization and an evaluation of importance for about 1200 technological topics. The forecast time of realization was estimated and compared in both Korea and the world's leading countries. We also provide a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology. This study interprets the results of the Delphi and explores the future directions of R&D activities with relevance to the Korean Society.     

An analysis of prior delphi applications and some observations on its future applicability

Since the inception of the Delphi method, it has experienced increased application. Despite its spreading utilization, very little is known about its past applications and its actual value. This article reports on the results of an international research project concerning the Delphi method. The research project focused primarily upon an analysis of the purposes for which the Delphi method has been used and its degree of successfulness, the extent of its use in various substantive fields, the future of the Delphi method, its relationship with other methodologies and the types of organizations financing Delphi studies.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis

Since its origins, decision makers have broadly used the Delphi method as a collaborative technique for generating important events and scenarios about what may happen in the future. This is a complex process because of the different interrelations and the potential synergetic effects among the relevant events related to a decision. This fact, along with the uncertainty about the occurrence or non-occurrence of the events, makes the scenario generation task a challenging issue in Delphi processes. In the 1960's, Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) appeared as a methodological tool for dealing with this complexity. CIA can be used for creating a working model out from a set of significant events. CIA has been combined with other methodological approaches in order to increase its functionality and improve its final outcome. In this paper, the authors propose a new step-by-step model for scenario-analysis based on a merger of Turoff's alternative approach to CIA and the technique called Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). The authors' proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and for producing a graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on CIA. Moreover, it allows working with large sets of events without using large computational infrastructures. The authors present sufficient information and data so that anyone who wishes to may duplicate the implementation of the process. Additionally they make explicit a set of requirements for carrying out a Delphi process for a group to develop a set of significant events, collectively make the estimations of cross impacts, and to support a continuous planning process within an organization. They use two examples to discuss operational issues and practical implications of the model.     

Emergency preparedness in Romania: Dynamics,shortcomings and policy proposals

Romanians were exposed in the last century to a range of natural or man-made disasters, mainly earthquakes and floods. The transition of the country from a Communist authoritarian pattern of emergency preparedness to a democratically civilian emergency system challenges the assessment of emergency preparedness and adds more complexity in designing a better and efficient system. The aim of this paper is to briefly describe the risks and institutions dealing with disasters, to assess the emergency preparedness, the uses of Knowledge Management Systems and Foresight Methodology approaches and to discover the shortcomings of the Romanian Emergency System. The empirical study designed as a reality check focuses on the perception of the local leaders of the emergency system regarding the most probable risks, and the uses and utility of long term strategic planning and foresight methodologies, using the Delphi technique. Lessons drawn from the Romanian transition could provide an interesting case study for other emerging democracies.     

Delphi: An investigation from a Bayesian viewpoint

This paper presents an analysis of Delphi from a Bayesian point of view and brings to attention several hitherto neglected, but highly relevant findings of research in areas other than Delphi proper. The aim has been to seek avenues of improvement in the Delphi technique. This has led to development of a methodology, which is based on a concept of second order probabilities as a measure of one's fuzzy thinking. The justification of this new methodology lies in explicit recognition and implementation of an optimum, determined by the trade-off between advantages and complexities of hierarchial inference. It is essential that conventional Delphi applications, at the very least, be accompanied by a Turoff-type cross impact analysis. It is indicated that the tremendous potential of Bayesianized Delphi in appropriate situations has remained utapped.     

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.