Globalisation and local labour markets

This paper begins with a review of the literature on the labour market’s impact of globalisation. An interesting case-study is provided by the province of Brescia, an industrial area in Northern Italy, where both de-localisation and immigration have been two important means of reducing the pressure of labour demand on the locally scarce human resources. The conclusion is that, in order to preserve competitive positions in the long run, it is worthy to consider the qualitative consequences, e.g. the indispensable changes in the structure of production, rather than focusing on the quantitative effects on domestic employment. This paper was presented at the International Conference on “Developments in Economic Theory and Policy, Institutions and European Integration”, Bilbao, 15–17 July, 2004. It is part of a wider research: see the Working Paper by Albertini and Marelli (2003). The sections prepared by S.Albertini, referring to organisational change and human resources management implications, are not included in this final paper. I am grateful to anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

North–South Trade and Pollution Migration: The Debate Revisited

The paper examines the effect of freer North–South trade in goods on pollution, commodity terms-of-trade and national welfare, utilizing a factor endowment framework. North and South are distinguished in terms of the relative endowment of a pollution causing natural resource: South is relatively more resource abundant. Compared to the analysis of Copeland and Taylor (1994)—which is the central work so far on this subject—this paper internalizes the commodity terms-of-trade impact of individual environment policies. It is derived that if countries specialize completely in the free-trade equilibrium, both are induced to reduce their pollution as compared to autarky. It is interesting and paradoxical that the South also reduces its pollution, despite specializing in the pollution-intensive good. Again, contrary to common perception, free trade may entail an overall terms-of-trade loss for the North, while South will always have a positive change in the terms-of-trade. Finally, inspite of better environment, free trade may cause both the countries to gain or lose in terms of aggregate welfare. This research has benefitted from comments received at the conference on International Dimension of Environment Policy organized by the European Science Foundation and Tilburg University, October 7–12, 2000 Kerkrade, The Netherlands and the International Conference on Environment and Development organized by CITD, School of International Studies, JNU, April 7–8, 2005, New Delhi, India, as well as those received from two anonymous referees. A small section of this research was published in Mehra and Das (2002).     

The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective

This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both the unit root and co-integration tests on which the sustainability testing procedure is based require a long period of data. We find considerable evidence in favor of sustainability for the 1903–2003 period which is not, however, maintained for the more recent 1975–2003 period, as it is characterized by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.Paper presented at the 2004 CESifo-LBI Conference on “Sustainability of Public Debt”, October 22–23 2004, Munich.     

Optimal balanced growth in a general multi-sector endogenous growth model with constant returns

I will study a multi-sector endogenous growth model with general constant returns to scale technologies and demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium. I will first demonstrate the existence of a balanced growth equilibrium, by showing that the balanced growth rate associated with the balanced growth equilibrium is solely determined by solving a Frobenius root problem of the price equations derived from the Euler equations and the property of the nonsubstitution theorem. Then I will show the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium without any capital intensity conditions, which is a generalized property proved in the two-sector endogenous growth models by de Guevara et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 21, 115–143, 1997), Bond et al. (J Econ Theory 68, 149–173 1996) and Mino (Int Eco Rev 37, 227–251 1996). The theorem clearly implies that the balanced growth equilibrium has a transition path in the neighborhood of the balanced growth equilibrium. The paper was presented at the conferences “Irregular Growth: Beyond Balanced Growth” held on June 19–21, 2003 in Paris and “Economic Growth and Distribution: On the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” held on June 16–18, 2004 in Lucca, Italy. From the discussion with Alain Venditti at CNRS-GREQAM, Gerhard Sorger at University of Vienna and the conference participants, I have been benefited much by writing this paper. Especially Alain Venditte had given me a chance to take a look at his unpublished paper titled ” Indeterminacy and the Role of Factor Substitutability” jointly written with Kazuo Nishimura at Kyoto University and published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 8. The author also would like to thank an anonymous referee for useful suggestions.     

Spatial analysis of urban growth in Spain, 1900–2001

The purpose of this paper is to improve the knowledge of the Spanish urban system. We study the evolution of population growth among the group of 722 municipalities included in the Spanish urban areas over the period 1900–2001. A spatial SUR model is estimated for Zipf’s law and shows the existence of two main phases: divergence (1900–1980) and convergence (1980–2001). Then, the cross-sectional distribution of urban population is characterized by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions and the growth process is modeled as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are finally introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning. This analysis shows a low interclass mobility, i.e., a high-persistence of urban municipalities to stay in their own class from one decade to another over the whole period, and the influence of the geographical environment on urban population dynamism. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 45th Congress of the European Regional Science Association (Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands, August 23–27, 2005) and at the International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics (Rome, Italy, May 25–27, 2006). We would like to thank two anonymous referees, M. Bosker, P. Cheshire, A. Carrington, B. Fingleton, R. Guillain, E. Lopez-Bazo, J. Paelinck and the other participants of these meetings for their valuable comments. Coro Chasco acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science SEJ2006-14277-C04-01. The usual disclaimers apply.     

The relationship among money supply, banking lending and aggregate demand in China: 1994–2006

Based on the framework of Bernanke & Blinader (1988) and Walsh (2003), this paper provides a concise analysis for relationship among money supply, banking lending and aggregate demand; and makes an empirical test on relationship among China’s money supply, banking lending and aggregate demand from 1994 to 2006 by adopting the single-equation regressive model and vector autoregressive model in terms of Keynesian structural model and monetarism simplified model. The result shows that money supply and banking lending have both played a driving role on real economy. Because of non-market interest rates, Keynesian structural model cannot explain the transmission mechanism of China monetary policies better than monetarism simplified model. __________ Translated from Jingji kexue 经济科学 (Economic Science), 2008, (1): 5–15     

Information, trade and incomplete markets

The no-trade result of Milgrom and Stokey, J Econ Theory 26:17–27 (1982), states that if rational traders begin with an ex-ante Pareto optimal allocation then the arrival of information cannot generate trade. This paper allows traders to trade before and after the arrival of information. If there are enough securities to hedge against all payoff relevant risk, then the preinformation-arrival allocation is Pareto optimal and information arrival has no effect. This no-retrade result is the competitive analog of the no-trade result of (1982). However, information generically generates trade when markets are state-contingent incomplete.We thank seminar participants at Cambridge, Carnegie Mellon,Cornell, Essex, London, Maastricht, USC, and York and participants at the 2003 SITE, the 2003 SAET and the Fall 2002 Cornell–Penn State Macro Conference. We also thank Karl Shell and a referee for this journal for useful comments     

Leading-by-example and signaling in voluntary contribution games: an experimental study

We report experimental results on the effect of leadership in a voluntary contribution game. Consistent with recent theories we find that leading-by-example increases contributions and earnings in an environment where a leader has private information about the returns from contributing (Hermalin in Am Econ Rev 88:1188–1206, 1998; Vesterlund in J Public Econ 87:627–657, 2003). In contrast the ability to lead-by-example has no effect on total contributions and earnings when such returns are commonly known. In our environment the success of leadership therefore appears to be driven by signaling rather than by nonpecuniary factors such as reciprocity. This paper was started while the authors were visiting the Harvard Business School during the fall of 2000. We are grateful for their hospitality and financial support. Vesterlund acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation and Potters from the Royal Netherlands’ Academy of Arts and Sciences. We thank Henrik Orzen for assistance in conducting the experiment. We also thank David Cooper and an anonymous referee who helped us improve the paper. Finally we thank Chris Anderson, Jim Andreoni, John Duffy, Simon Gaechter, Ernan Haruvy, Muriel Niederle, Jack Ochs, Elke Renner, Al Roth, participants at ESA-meetings (Barcelona, 2001), the Leadership and Social Interactions Workshop (Lyon, 2003), SITE (Stanford, 2004) and seminar participants at Alabama, CMU, Duke, Keele, Maryland, Nottingham, NYU, Pittsburgh, OSU, and York for valuable comments.     

The Effect of Changes in Real Exchange Rates on Employment: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in China, 1980–2002

This paper analyzes the effect of changes in real exchange rate on manufacturing employment. Our theoretical model predicts the positive effect of depreciation of real exchange rate on employment through a firm’s expectation on changes in real exchange rate and the interaction between real exchange rate and a firm’s import and domestic input. Using China’s manufacturing data during the 1980–2003 period, we find that depreciation of real exchange rate promotes employment growth in manufacturing industries, while change in real exchange rate is not a significant factor in promoting wage growth. We also find that an increase in export share offsets partially the effects of real exchange rate on employment and real wages. Translated from Journal of World Economy, 2005, (4): (in Chinese)     

Hospital cost sharing incentives: evidence from Iceland

Hospitals’ incentives to provide health care are influenced by the degree of cost sharing between the purchaser and the provider. In most OECD countries, governments remunerate hospitals according to the activity performed. Activity is usually measured through a diagnosis related groups (DRGs) system. This study estimates the degree of cost sharing of the NordDRG classification system (the DRG version of the Nordic countries) in Iceland during 2003–2005. We first apply ordinary least square (OLS) methods to estimate the degree of cost sharing by regressing the price for each individual patient against its cost. Second, we propose an instrumental-variable approach to address the potential endogeneity of costs. The OLS estimates suggest that the degree of cost sharing is in the range 0.16–0.17 (i.e. 1$ increase in cost is associated with an increase in reimbursement by 0.16–0.17$ increase in cost is associated with an increase in reimbursement by 0.16–0.17). The instrumental-variable approach provides some evidence of endogeneity, and suggests that cost sharing is overestimated by OLS. The instrumented estimates of cost sharing are 0.11, 0.13 and 0.14 in 2003, 2004 and 2005, respectively. Regardless of the method applied, most cost sharing is associated with the retrospective features of the classification system (such as the type of treatment provided).     

Optimal pricing of a two-sided monopoly platform with a one-sided congestion effect

This paper studies the optimal pricing of a two-sided monopoly platform when one side is affected by congestion. We show that the divide-and-conquer pricing strategy (or skewed pricing) depends not only on the relative magnitude of the sides’ price elasticities of demand but it also depends on the marginal congestion cost that an agent imposes on the others. Compared with the no-congestion case, this pricing strategy gives rise to some interesting features that violate the results of Rochet and Tirole (J Eur Econ Assoc 1:990–1029 in 2003, Rand J Econ 37:645–667 in 2006). In the case of equal price elasticities of demand, the no-congested side is charged the highest price. On the other hand, in the case of different price elasticities, the platform congestion pricing depends on a certain threshold of the marginal congestion cost. We show, under some conditions, that the divide-and-conquer pricing strategy is reversed. In the social context, the Rochet and Tirole’s (J Eur Econ Assoc 1:990–1029 in 2003) cost allocation condition is modified by the congestion cost. We show that the congestion does not only affect the buyers’ contribution to the sellers’ surplus, but it also affects the sellers’ contribution to the buyers’.     

Analysis on total factor productivity of Chinese provincial economy

This paper applies the nonparametric DEA-Malmquist index approach to estimate total factor productivity growth, efficiency change and the rate of technological progress from 1979 to 2003. This is done to conduct analysis on the total factor productivity of China’s provincial economy. Analysis on the evolution of distribution dynamics of relative labor productivity, relative total factor productivity, relative efficiency and relative technological progress is done by using kernel density estimation for the period from 1979 to 2003 in 29 provinces of China. Our analysis indicates that disparities of provincial economic growth are large and have been increasing owing to the relatively large and increasing disparities of total factor productivity growth especially the rate of technological progress. __________ Translated from The Journal of World Economy (世界经6D4E;), 2005, (5) (in Chinese)     

On discounted dynamic programming with unbounded returns

In this paper, we apply the idea of k-local contraction of Rincón-Zapatero and Rodriguez-Palmero (Econometrica 71:1519–1555, 2003; Econ Theory 33:381–391, 2007) to study discounted stochastic dynamic programming models with unbounded returns. Our main results concern the existence of a unique solution to the Bellman equation and are applied to the theory of stochastic optimal growth. Also a discussion of some subtle issues concerning k-local and global contractions is included.     

Environmental Financing in European Economies in Transition

The paper offers a perspective on environmental predicament of economies in transition. Emphasis is put on how these economies finance their environmental needs. It is observed that the demand for environmental financing can be affected both by environmental policy measures (such as internalization of externalities) and by other factors (such as the softness of budget constraints faced by firms). The role of subsidies – in many countries of the Central and Eastern European region provided through special purpose ‘environmental funds’ – is then scrutinized. In particular the question is asked whether such funds crowd out commercial capital from the market. Conditions are discussed that would allow the funds to play their constructive environmental roles without crowding out private financing.     

Bank-lending channel and non-financial firms: evidence for Spain

During the 1990s, liquidity was relatively abundant in the European Union and the European central banks mostly developed a relaxed monetary policy. While the bank lending channel view of the monetary policy would have suggested an increase in loans to firms in this context, the demand for bank corporate lending, however, slowed down, suggesting that monetary policy was not effective in this area. This article analyses how the financing behaviour of Spanish firms during 1992–2003 is related to their liquidity holdings and how this relationship may affect the effectiveness of the bank lending channel. The empirical evidence provided suggests that firms holding high liquid assets may replace bank lending by other sources of financing. Hence, higher liquidity holdings allow firms to invest in attractive investment projects in the event of a tightening of monetary conditions.      

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Europe: an analysis of European micro data from the ECHP 1994–2001

This paper substantially extends the available evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity in the European Union (EU) and the Euro Area. We develop an econometric multi-country model based on Kahn’s (Am Econ Rev 87(5):993–1008, 1997) histogram-location approach and apply it to employee micro data from the European Community Household Panel for 12 of the EU’s member states. Our estimates for the degree of downward nominal wage rigidity on the national as well as the EU-wide level point to substantial downward nominal wage rigidity within the EU. A detailed comparison with other cross-national studies reveals an emerging consensus about which countries can be characterized as high or low rigidity countries, although the status of some countries remains unclear. The variation in national degrees of downward nominal wage rigidity cannot convincingly be explained by institutional variables.      

Cost Savings From Generation and Distribution with an Application to Italian Electric Utilities*

In the last decade, the European Commission promoted a new regulatory framework aiming at a gradual liberalization of the energy markets. The introduction of competition among generators implies the need to separate generation from transmission and distribution activities. However, if savings can be reached by operating at different stages, vertical separation would increase the costs of providing power. This paper tests for the presence of economies from vertical integration on a sample of Italian local electric utilities and finds evidence of both multi-stage economies of scale and vertical economies. Even if the hypothesis of global subadditivity is not supported, our evidence suggests that a complete divestiture policy would entail efficiency losses. *For helpful comments and discussions, we thank two anonymous referees, Graziano Abrate, Bruno Bosco, Diego Piacentino, and participants at the 31st Annual Conference of the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE), Berlin, Germany, 2–5 September, 2004, the 60th Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF), Milan, Italy, 23–26 August, 2004, and seminars held at the Bocconi University, University of Lecce, University of Naples, University of Pavia, and University of Turin, where earlier versions of this paper were presented. The financial support of MIUR (COFIN 2002) and HERMES Research Center is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies. **HERMES, Center for Research on Regulated Services, Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto, Via Real Collegio 30, 10024 Moncalieri (TO), Italy, http://www.hermesricerche.it.     

The risk of falling house prices in Italy

This paper shows that Italian house market is less exposed to price shocks than the American one. Variations in the house price index in real terms have been studied along with the affordability ratio and the relation between house prices and rent levels for the period 1995–2004 in Italian provinces. Comparison with US data reveals greater overpricing in the US during the expansion phase (2000–2004). Although a speculative bubble in all US metropolitan areas considered does not emerge, US financial and economic structural factors make the US real estate sector more exposed to price shocks. To test the compatibility of Italian house prices with fundamentals an econometric model is designed to analyze the provincial house prices from 1995 to 2003.     

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance on the Job Match Quality: A Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity on the distribution of the match starting wage and tenure. We show evidence of a positive shift in the location (mean) and scale (variance) of both variables: more generous UI increases expected starting wage and tenure, and this impact is greater at the highest quantiles. In this sense, more generous UI reduces the thickness of the lower tail of match quality (shorter and lower paid jobs), and, at the same time, increases the quality of matches available to all workers (the location effect on match duration and wages). These results can be seen as favorable evidence of match quality gains from UI generosity.The authors would like to thank Pedro Portugal, José A. F. Machado, Francisco Lima and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and discussions, as well as participants at the following conferences: ESPE – Paris, EEA – Amsterdam, LACEA – Paris and IV Brucchi Luchino – Milan. We are also grateful to Marianne Bertrand for providing a file used to construct the simulated unemployment insurance benefits. Opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banco de Portugal.     

Innovation and Employment: Evidence from Italian Microdata

The microeconomic empirical literature devoted to the link between innovation and employment tends to suggest that technological change has a positive effect on jobs, at least at the firm-level. The main purpose of this paper is to see whether this result still holds in a situation where intermediate technologies are implemented mainly through non R&D expenditures, as in Italian manufacturing. Applying GMM-SYS to an employment equation augmented for technology and using a unique longitudinal dataset of 575 Italian manufacturing firms over the period 1992–1997, this paper finds a significant – although small – positive relationship between innovation and employment.