On the optimal external tariff of a free trade area with internal market integration

Previous analyses of free trade areas suggest that member countries reduce external tariffs to the level that improves welfare of non-member countries. Using an oligopoly model with product differentiation, this paper shows that when a free trade area entails endogenous change from segmented to integrated markets for internally produced goods, external tariffs become strategic complements and their equilibrium level is higher than in the market segmentation case. In this case, the non-member may lose from the formation of free trade area whereas each member gains more.     

Vertical trade and free trade agreements

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on tariffs and welfare in vertical trade. We consider a three-country model, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good and a country exporting an intermediate good. The FTA unambiguously leads to a reduction in the member country’s tariff, but may cause the non-member country’s tariff level to increase. In the case, where FTA raises the non-member country’s tariff level, the FTA increases that country’s welfare. In contrast, the FTA may render its member countries better off. This result implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto-improving.     

INDONESIA'S TEXTILES AND APPAREL: THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

International rules governing textiles and apparel trade are undergoing transformation. The Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) is being phased out, and as of January 2005 textiles and apparel trade will be conducted under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. For Indonesia, this presents challenges and opportunities. The global trading system is increasingly seeing the introduction of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) that liberalise trade among members but discriminate against nonmembers. Major markets are negotiating new PTAs that divert trade away from low-cost non-member producers such as Indonesia. China's entry into the WTO allows producers there to take advantage of liberalised quotas and the integration of textile and apparel products into the tariff-based trade system as of 2002. With rising domestic production costs, increased local government interventions and poor tax administration, Indonesian producers face a 'double squeeze'. This paper outlines the key challenges confronting the sector and makes recommendations for sustaining exports in coming years.     

Union membership,union coverage and wage dispersion of rural migrants: Evidence from Suzhou industrial sector

Using the data from an original survey on rural migrant workers from Suzhou industrial sector in 2013, we estimate the wage effect of both union membership and union coverage across the wage distributions using decomposition approach based on unconditional quantile regression. The results show that union membership has a significant effect on the wage level of rural migrant workers across the wage distribution. The effect of coefficient differences which results from the different rewarding systems explains the majority wage differentials between union members and non-members in non-unionized firms. There is also significant union coverage effect at the lower part of the distribution when comparing the union-covered non-member to the nonunion-covered non-member, which is also mainly caused by the coefficient effect. By contrast, wage differentials between union members and non-members in unionized firms are attributed to significant composition effect, which reveals that union members are positively selected within unionized firms. As a result, the positive wage effect of union is limited to the more advantaged group among migrant workers.     

THE DEBATABLE ISSUES IN THE STUDY OF THE CONTEMPORARY HISTORY OF INDIA*

The present study is an attempt to present the issues which arise out of the task of making a historical evaluation of the major problems in the development of contemporary Indian history. First, the period from the Indian Rebellion to World War I is defined as the transition stage from modern history to contemporary history. Second, the problems in contemporary Indian history after World War I have been reviewed applying the rules of historical methodology. Finally, the problems of the post-independence era are considered mainly from the aspects of the role of Jawaharlal Nehru, of the changes in the character of the Congress Government, and of the split of the Communist Party and its ideological struggles. An attempt has also been made to forecast the India's prospects from the point of view of unity of the nation-states in South Asia.     

高度重视农村住房制度国家公共政策研究

中国农村住房制度具有一供、三非、四保、五自的基本特点。农民住房兼具生产生活功能,兼具居住和社会保障功能。随着改革开放和城镇化发展,农民建房和农村居民点调整遇到前所未有的挑战,应从国家公共政策角度构建中国农村住房基本制度的理论框架和政策指引,保障农民在农村的居住权益,依法制度规范农村居民点(乡镇、村落)的空间调整,解决城乡建设用地合理调剂使用的主要范式,与时俱进地推动十二五农村住房制度改革。     

INTEGRATING THE HISTORIOGRAPHY OF THE NINETEENTH-CENTURY GOLD RUSHES

In the century preceding World War I, the world experienced a series of gold rushes. The wealth derived from these was distributed widely because of reduced migration costs and low barriers to entry. While gold mining itself was generally unprofitable for diggers and mine owners, the increase in the world's gold supply stimulated global trade and investment. In this introductory article we integrate the histories of migration, trade, colonisation, and environmental history to identify endogenous factors that increased the world's gold supply and generated sustained economic growth in the regions that were affected by gold rushes.     

JOSÉ RIZAL: THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL VIEW OF HISTORY AND NATIONAL CONSCIOUSNESS IN THE PHILIPPINES

The rewriting of the history of the Philippines from the standpoint of the Filipinos is today one of the major subjects of research in the history of that country. A perspective on Philippine history from the standpoint of the Filipino people themselves and free from the bias of the colonialists, was first attempted in the era of the Propaganda Movement, 1882–1896. In this paper, I should like to probe into the process of the formation of the historical view of the Filipino people taken by the greatest thinker of the Propaganda Movement era, José Rizal, and into the notion of the national solidarity of the people of the Philippines (i. e., their national consciousness), which that historical view heightened.     

轮轴-辐条型自由贸易协定的产业区位效应——基于流动资本模型的分析

本文在流动资本模型的基础上分析了轮轴-辐条型自由贸易协定的产业区位效应。轮轴-辐条型FTA具有双层区位效应,即生产转移效应和轮轴效应。一方面它使制造业从非成员国转移到成员国;另一方面它可能使产业从辐条国转移到轮轴国。区位效应取决于轮轴-辐条体系的规模和贸易开放度。轮轴-辐条型FTA的区位效应最终可能导致国家之间产业发展不平等和贫富分化,发展中国家必须采取积极措施避免这种区位效应的不利影响。     

中国-东盟FTA贸易效应实证研究

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的成立对中国和东盟国家具有重要的经济与政治意义。本文利用一个扩展后的引力模型对CAFTA的贸易效应进行了实证分析。结果显示:CAFTA对区内贸易具有显著扩大效应的同时也显著地促进了与非成员之间的贸易;CAFTA符合"自然的贸易伙伴"的事前贸易关系紧密和空间距离接近标准;同时,CAFTA成员间产品出口结构以互补性为主;进一步降低成员间贸易壁垒、加强贸易合作对CAFTA成员间和世界贸易的扩大具有积极意义。     

REVIEW OF THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION IN SOUTH AFRICA*

I have pleasure in formally presenting to you the Final Accounts of the Bank, and the Reports of the Board and the Auditors, for the year ended 31st March 1969. I also submit to you the Bank's Annual Economic Report which describes in some detail the economic and monetary developments in South Africa during the year ended June 1969 and which in general serves as a background to my remarks today. As is customary, however, I will survey these developments very briefly before discussing the present situation and the prospects for the near future.     

International Trade, OECD Membership, and Religion

Transaction costs in trade gravity equation are proxied by the distance that separates two trading partners, under the assumption that the distance elasticity is the same across all trading partners. We show that distance elasticity, however, critically depends on whether trading partners are industrial countries (i.e., members of the OECD) or share same religion. These heterogeneities are both statistically and economically significant. For instance, expected trade flows are the largest when an OECD member trades with a non-member and both are non-religious. Expected trade flows fall as much as by 62.9% between two non-religious, non-OECD members. Expected bilateral trade drops by 48.1% when both countries in the pair are OECD members while one is Christian and the other is Islamic. Both religion and OECD membership significantly affect the typical transaction costs implied by the gravity equation. JEL Classification Number: F13     

THE PROBLEM OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

Suppose that land is communally owned. Every person has theright to hunt, till, or mine the land. This form of ownershipfails to concentrate the cost associated with any person's exerciseof his communal right on that person. If a person seeks to maximizethe value of his communal rights, he will tend to overhunt andoverwork the land because some of the costs of his doing soare borne by others. The stock of game and the richness of thesoil will be diminished too quickly. It is conceivable thatthose who own these rights, i.e. every member of the community,can agree to curtail the rate at which they work the lands ifnegotiating and policing costs are zero... [However,] negotiatingcosts will be large because it is difficult for many personsto reach a mutually satisfactory agreement, especially wheneach hold-out has the right to work the land as fast as he pleases.[Furthermore,] even if an agreement among all can be reached,we must yet take account of the costs of policing the agreement,and these may be large, also. Footnotes ¹ I have benefited greatly from comments made by David Pearceon an earlier draft of this paper.     

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

With the rapid economic development from the Meiji era on, Japan has progressed from an agricultural nation at the beginnig of this century to a present-day advanced industrialized nation. However, because of a pronounced regional concentration of industry which exists despite Japan's small size, there have come to be wide regional differences in the structure of industry. I believe that this may be witnessed in the regional differences in the distribution of industrial empolyment.     

Prospects for the manufacturing exports of the non-candidate Mediterranean countries in a community of twelve

The paper examines the impact of the accession of Greece, Portugal and Spain on the exports of manufactures of the non-candidate, non-member Mediterranean countries (NCMC). The effects of the second enlargement of the EEC on the manufacturing exports of the NCMC are examined by looking at the changes in post-enlargement market access principally in two groups of markets, i.e. the markets of the European Community of Nine (EEC-9) and the markets of the new entrants. The structure of the manufacturing exports to the EEC-9 of the newly acceding countries is compared to the structure of the exports of NCMC to the Community in order to see the extent to which EEC-9 imports from NCMC will be replaced by sources from the new entrants. The potential for NCMC trade expansion and trade discrimination in the markets of the new entrants is also investigated. The paper concludes by pointing out the commodity groups where trade conflicts between the enlarged EEC and the NCMC can potentially arise.     

THE LAND SYSTEM IN CENTRAL THAILAND*

Although the view that Thai peasants are almost all owner-cultivators is commonly accepted, I demonstrate the fact that in the Chaophraya Delta at least nearly half the peasants are tenants or part-owners. I also suggest that the tendency for owner-cultivators to become tenant-cultivators is increasing remarkably. In the course of discussion the emphasis is placed upon the socio-economic function of landownership in the development of Thai society on the grounds that the clarification of the land system is indispensable for a dynamic analysis of social change in Thailand.     

EFFECTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.     

MANAGERIAL STRUCTURE OF BUSINESS GROUPS IN TAIWAN: THE INNER CIRCLE SYSTEM AND ITS SOCIAL ORGANIZATION

This paper examined the management structure of Taiwan's business groups. The objective was to determine how independent group firms coordinate their business. Employing longitudinal data of the top 100 groups, I investigated the “inner circle” system and its evolution. I found that group leaders occupied overlapped positions at the director rather than at the manager level, which implied a separation of strategic planning and routine administration. Secondly, the dynamics of inner circle management did not hinge upon the group president as in the Korean chaebol, nor on the norm of corporate community as in the Japanese keiretsu, but on the social ties in the inner circle. Analyzing the background of the leaders indicated that family never dominated the scene even in the early years, and their significance decreased along with environmental changes. The transition in Taiwan in the late 1980s motivated business groups to introduce more “outside” talent into decision‐making.     

THE ROLE OF COMMODITY TERMS OF TRADE IN THE DETERMINATION OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there exists a long‐run relationship between the real exchange rate and the commodity terms of trade in the so‐called Mediterranean or MENA countries. These economies are good candidates for this type of formulation, as are commodity exporting countries. Using cointegration techniques, we find long‐run relationships linking the real exchange rate and a commodity‐based measure of the terms of trade. Therefore, commodity terms of trade are a potential explanation for the apparent nonstationarity of MENA countries’ real exchange rates previously found in the empirical literature.