FDI Contribution to Technical Efficiency in the Tunisian Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from Micro-panel Data

This paper investigates the contribution of FDI to firms’ technical efficiency based on a two-stage empirical method. Using panel data for 674 firms belonging to the Tunisian manufacturing sector and observed over the period 1997–2001, a bootstrap procedure is applied to correct for serial correlation affecting DEA technical efficiency scores estimated in a first stage. Results obtained from second-stage regressions show that FDI presence at the firm level has a positive effect on its technical efficiency. However, horizontal FDI spillovers are not evidenced while sectoral export activity represents a potential source of technology spillovers for local firms.     

Using Quality of Interview Information to Assess Nonrandom Attrition Bias in Developing-Country Panel Data

Panel data often provide an understanding of household behavior not possible with cross‐sectional information alone. However, a disturbing feature of such data is that there can be substantial, nonrandom attrition and many analysts share the concern that this inhibits the ability to make accurate inferences. The author examines attrition in the KwaZulu–Natal Income Dynamics Study 1993–1998, assesses the extent of attrition bias for a specific empirical example, and proposes and implements a selection correction methodology using quality of first round interview variables as identifying instruments. The results show that attrition does lead to statistical bias in the “behavioral” coefficients in estimation of household‐level expenditure functions. Since it is typically difficult to determine the bias for a particular analysis a priori, and such bias is by its nature model‐specific, it behooves researchers using panel data to evaluate the effects of attrition in their analyses.     

Attrition and Follow‐Up Rules in Panel Surveys: Insights from a Tracking Experience in Madagascar

Most longitudinal surveys recontact households only if they are still living in the same dwelling, producing very high attrition rates, especially in developing countries where rural–urban migration is prevalent. In this paper, we discuss the implications of the various follow‐up rules used in longitudinal surveys in the light of an original tracking survey from Madagascar. This survey attempted in 2005 to search and interview all individuals who were living in the village of Bepako in 1995, the baseline year of a yearly survey, the Rural Observatories. The tracking survey yielded an individual recontact rate of 78.8 percent, more than halving attrition compared to a standard dwelling‐based follow‐up rule. The tracking reveals a very high rate of out‐migration (38.8 percent) and household break‐ups, as three‐quarters of recontacted households had divided between 1995 and 2005. The average income growth of the sample over the period increases by 28 percentage points when follow‐up is extended to those who moved out of their household or village, suggesting that dwelling‐based panels give a partial view of the welfare dynamics of the baseline sample. A higher baseline income per capita is associated with a higher probability of staying in Bepako and of being found in the tracking if one moved out. The hardest people to find are the poorest and most isolated. Special attention should be paid to collecting data that enable the identification and follow‐up of individuals, without which attrition is likely to remain a source of bias even after a tracking procedure is carried out.     

The Skill Bias: Comparative evidence and an econometric test

Many empirical studies have shown how technological change, organisational change and globalisation can be alternatively (or jointly) seen as causes of skill bias. In this paper, after discussing some evidence on the G7 countries which shows a clear upskilling trend in manufacturing industries over the 1980s, an illustrative example is provided.The panel analysis of a sample of 488 Italian manufacturing firms shows how the upskilling trend of employment is a function of the reorganisational strategy adopted by firms, while technological change and FDI seem to play negligible roles.     

The effects of foreign direct investment on domestic firms

This paper uses firm‐level panel data to investigate empirically the effects of foreign direct investment on the productivity performance of domestic firms in three emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Romania and Poland. To this end, a unique firm‐level panel dataset is used with detailed information on foreign ownership at the firm level. Two main questions are addressed in the present paper: (1) do foreign firms perform better than their domestic counterparts? (2) do foreign firms generate spillovers to domestic firms? The estimation technique in this paper takes potential endogeneity of ownership, spillovers and other factors into account by estimating a fixed effects model using instrumental variables in the general methods of moment technique for panel data. Only in Poland, do foreign firms perform better than firms without foreign participation. Moreover, for all three countries studied here, I find no evidence of positive spillovers to domestic firms, on average. In contrast, on average, there are negative spillovers to domestic firms in Bulgaria and Romania, while there are no spillovers to domestic firms in Poland. This suggests a negative competition effect that dominates a positive technology effect. JEL classification: D24, F14, O52, P31.     

Can the Large Swings in Russian Life Satisfaction be Explained by Ups and Downs in Real Incomes?*

Russians reported large changes in their life satisfaction over the post‐transition years. In this paper, we explore the factors that drove these changes, focusing on exogenous income changes, using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey over the period 1995 to 2001 and implementing a recently developed ordinal fixed‐effects estimator. We apply a causal decomposition technique that allows for bias arising from panel attrition when establishing aggregate trends in life satisfaction. Changes in real household incomes explained 10% of the total change in reported life satisfaction between 1996 and 2000, but up to 30% of some year‐on‐year changes.     

Offshoring and Firm Performance: Evidence from the Italian Manufacturing Industry

The fundamental question of whether offshoring is value enhancing and, more specifically, whether Italian manufacturing firms that undertake offshoring benefit from higher productivity and profitability is explored. Using data from the tenth wave of the “Survey on Manufacturing Firms” conducted by Unicredit‐Capitalia, it was found that, compared with domestic firms, firms relocating activities to a foreign country have different characteristics, and “better” firms might self‐select into offshoring decision. To disentangle the effect of offshoring on firms' performances from the effect of firm characteristics, several variants of propensity score matching are used. A mild and insignificant positive effect of offshoring on profitability was found and also evidence of a statistically significant positive effect of offshoring on productivity.     

Optimism bias in financial analysts' earnings forecasts: Do commissions sharing agreements reduce conflicts of interest?

Implemented in May 2007, the French rules governing commission-sharing agreements (CSAs) consist of unbundling brokerage and investment research fees. The goal of this paper is to analyze the effect of these rules on analysts' forecasts. Based on a sample of one-year-ahead earnings per share forecasts for 58 French firms during the period from 1999 to 2011, we conduct panel data regressions. We show that the analysts' optimistic bias declined significantly after CSA rules, which suggests that these rules are effective at curbing the conflicts of interest between brokerage activities and financial research. Our results are robust to the impact of the Global Settlement and the Market Abuse Directive.     

The missing link between innovation and performance in Brazilian firms: a panel data approach

This study aims to verify if there is a positive relationship between innovation and productivity and/or profit in Brazil using a recursive model in line with the Crépon, Duguet and Mairesse (CDM) model. Using a rich combination of three databases, this paper considers a sample of more than 10,000 Brazilian industrial firms and the period 2001–2008. Besides using R&D expenditure as a measure of innovation input, this study also tests the technical-scientific personnel stock as a more appropriate measure of innovative effort in emerging countries. This variable considers the tacit knowledge intrinsic to the worker and corrects a possible measurement error bias in the R&D expenditure variable. The empirical strategy uses a reduced form of the CDM model in a panel data structure to provide consistent estimates as it controls for selectivity, simultaneity and endogeneity due to unobserved firm effects. There are still few studies that apply the CDM model for panel data, especially regarding developing countries. The main results suggest that technical-scientific workers positively affect the firms’ probability to innovate while R&D expenditure has no effect. The results also highlight the absence of the effect of innovation on productivity and profit, suggesting a missing link between innovative efforts and Brazilian firms’ performance.     

Innovative growth: the role of market power and negative selection

ABSTRACT

This paper relies on register-based statistical data from Finland to measure broad research and development (R&D), organizational capital (OC) and information and communication technology (ICT) investments as innovation inputs in addition to formal survey-based R&D and CIS survey data on innovations. The linked panel data are appropriate for a comparison of low-market-share (small) and large-market-share (large) firms. We analyze the productivity growth and profitability of Finnish firms with varying market power. In contrast to high-market-share firms, low-market-share firms are characterized by low profit derived from new innovations. This study suggests that in addition to imitative growth, a ‘negative selection mechanism’ explains the high productivity growth relative to the low profits.     

Is newest always best? Firm-level evidence to challenge a focus on high-capability technological (product or process) innovation

This paper sets out to address a gap in the empirical literature on the importance of ‘low-capability’ innovation for firms. The study is framed around discussion of the conceptual bias that remains in policy and academic literature towards a narrow subset of technological (product or process) innovation labelled ‘high-capability’ innovation in this paper. The paper argues that this bias influences the public and business community's understanding of the term ‘innovation’ and has implications for innovation measurement, research, policy and strategy. The study uses data from an economy-wide, regional innovation survey based on the Oslo manual, and includes 648 innovative firms covering all industry sectors. The paper combines elements of both subject and object approaches to innovation measurement, using data from an open-ended survey question to explore the alignment between what firms report as their ‘most important innovation’ (MII) and firm capabilities for introducing ‘high-capability’ technological innovation. Results show that a substantial share of firms report an MII that is a ‘low-capability’ innovation, including those firms with high R&D intensity, those with novel technological innovation, and firms in more innovative sectors of manufacturing and knowledge intensive business services. The paper discusses the implications of this result for future innovation measurement and research.     

Sources of productivity differentials in manufacturing in post-transition urban South-East Europe

The paper analyses the effects of urbanization and localisation economies on manufacturing firms’ productivity across urban landscapes in post-transition South-East European (SEE) countries. Fixed-effects panel data estimations on a large sample of firms show that the factors accounting for productivity advantages of manufacturing firms in urban post-transition SEE are related to the firms and to the environment in which these firms operate. Firms located in diversified cities benefit from a productivity premium generated in this type of agglomeration, while no evidence was found that the relative specialization across industries has any effect on firm productivity levels.     

A model of attrition and income for dynamic longitudinal surveys

This paper develops a random effects model of attrition and income applicable to a dynamic longitudinal survey such as the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Based on the partial dynamic adjustment hypothsis, this study finds that the speed of adjustment of income is not instantaneous as suggeted in many past studies using annual panel data. Also, the short-run coefficients are much smaller than their long-run counterparts, and the coefficient estimates differ substantially among individuals with divergent socioeconomic characteristics. Caution should therefore be exercised when applying dynamic panel data to models with the assumption of an instantaneous speed of adjustment.     

What Drives the Operating Performance of Privatised Firms?

Using a panel data analysis of Spanish privatised firms, we study how different factors influence the operating performance of divested companies. The results show that it is not privatisation per se but other factors that matter. After controlling for possible sample selection bias related to government timing of divestments, we find that the greater the relinquishment of State control and the smaller the percentage of ownership held by managers and/or employees, the better the firms’ post‐privatisation performance. Moreover, privatisations that are accompanied by liberalisation programmes and occur during buoyant economic cycles turn out to be more successful.     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

International outsourcing versus FDI under contractual incompleteness

This paper empirically analyses the boundaries of a large sample of Italian multinational enterprises, with firm-level data from Capitalia, AIDA and Centrale dei Bilanci. Within the broad array of feasible contracts in a foreign country, we focus on the trade-off between international outsourcing and foreign direct investment (FDI), in a context of contractual incompleteness. Probit estimates reveal that Italian enterprises operating in highly relation-specific environments are more prone to international outsourcing than FDI, consistently with recent theoretical contributions on the topic. Results are robust to different specifications and alternative measures of contractual incompleteness and international outsourcing.     

Financial constraints and investment: assessing the impact of a World Bank credit program on small and medium enterprises in Sri Lanka

Abstract.  This paper examines the investment behaviour of a sample of small, credit-constrained firms in Sri Lanka. Using a unique panel data set, we analyze and compare the activities of two groups of small firms distinguished by their differential access to financing; one group consists of firms with subsidized loans from the World Bank, while the other group consists of firms without such subsidies. The paper shows that the program led to higher levels of investment for financially constrained firms. However, the evidence is inconclusive on whether the program improved economic efficiency.     

Price stickiness and the contractionary effect of technology shocks

We derive a measure of technological change from a dynamic cost minimization model that controls for imperfect competition, increasing returns and unobserved factor utilization. We estimate this measure using highly detailed panel data of a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms for the period 1984-1997. Our key finding is that technological improvements result in a contraction of labor input on impact. In principle, this result can be reconciled with the transmission mechanism of flexible-price models by resorting to reorganization and reallocation effects. On the other hand, however, it is consistent with the predictions of a sticky-price model. Using survey information on the frequency of price revisions, we corroborate the latter interpretation, by showing that the contractionary effect of technology shocks is much stronger for firms with stickier prices.     

Foreign exchange exposure and impact of policy switch – the case of Malaysian listed firms

This article undertakes an in-depth study of the foreign exchange exposure of Malaysian listed firms. We examine several issues related to firm-specific and overall exposure, including an evaluation of the efficacy of adopting a hard-peg on such exposure. Our sample consists of 158 listed firms and spans the 16 year period, 1990–2005. A multivariate model using four bilateral exchange rates is used to determine firm level exposure while panel data analysis using a random-effects Generalized Least Squares (GLS) model is used to determine system-wide or aggregate sample exposure. We find a total 71% of our sample firms to have significant exchange rate exposure, a rate substantially higher than that reported for most countries, especially developed ones. The US$ is by far the single most important source of exposure with 63% of sample firms exposed to it. The sign of the beta coefficient for three of the four currencies are negative, implying that our sample firms are largely net importers in these currencies. We find exposure to be time variant and dependent on the sector within which a firm operates. Interestingly, the panel data analysis which measures aggregate exposure, shows the US$ to be a significant source of exposure even with the adoption of the hard peg. The change in policy regime to a fixed peg following the crisis appears to have had no impact at either firm-level exposure or overall system-wide exposure.     

Equilibrium Search with Continuous Productivity Dispersion: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation

In this article we develop an equilibrium search model with a continuous distribution of firm productivity types within a given labor market. We characterize equilibrium, derive expressions for the endogenous equilibrium wage distributions, and characterize the set of wage distributions that can be generated by the model. We develop a structural nonparametric estimation method for the productivity distribution. We estimate the model using French longitudinal survey data on labor supply, and we compare the results with those from a French panel data set of firms. The results are informative on the degree to which firms exploit search frictions.