The Political Economy of Interwar Egyptian Cotton Policy

The optimal tariff was a central concern to economists and policymakers in interwar Egypt. The government took the position that Egypt conformed to the small-country assumption in world cotton markets. Using time-series and panel data for the period 1895–1939, this article demonstrates that Egyptian long-staple cotton commanded significant market power in international markets. An optimal export tariff would have encouraged economic diversification and generated huge government revenues, making it possible to finance industrialization plans. However, the burden of taxation would have been shared by Egyptian landlords and British interests. Thus, an optimal export tariff was incompatible with the goals of Egypt's ruling elite, who dictated the orientation of trade policy until the 1950s.     

Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Egypt

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial reforms on competitiveness and production efficiency of the banking sector, as well as the short‐term and long‐term impact on economic growth, in Egypt during 1992–2007. The results suggest that the reforms have a positive and significant effect on competitiveness and production efficiency. Also, the evidence shows that state‐owned banks are generally less competitive than private banks and foreign banks are less competitive than domestic banks. The average x‐inefficiency of Egyptian banks is around 30 per cent, which is comparable to those reported for other African countries. Finally, there is evidence to suggest a significant relationship between financial bank productive efficiency and economic growth in the short run but not in the long run. Overall, the results support the argument for continuing the financial sector reform programme in Egypt.     

The canadian fiscal problem: The macroeconomic connection

Canada's public sector debt has increased from 5 percent of GDP in 1974 to 64 percent in 1994 on national accounts. The paper provides a summary assessment of the relative contributions of changes in taxation, program spending, interest rates, and economic growth and fluctuations to this explosion of public debt. By far the most important source of debt accumulation has been the anti-inflationary recessions of 1982 and 1990. Higher world interest rates and slower trend productivity growth have been significant, but secondary contributing factors. Lax spending has definitely not been a net source of debt over the period.     

Tying governments' hands in commodity taxation

In the 1970s, taxation of 'windfall' profits from primary productsand intervention in trade and production tempted governmentsinto expansionary fiscal policies, whilst stifling the privatesector and depressing growth. However, the experience of themid-1990s coffee boom has so far been more favourable: thoseAfrican countries which liberalised and left a large share ofthe 'windfall' with the private sector, and which committedthemselves to fiscal austerity via adjustment programmes, haveshown better results in terms of fiscal stability, private sectorresponses and economic growth than countries which did not reform.These findings suggest that constraints on discretionary governmentpolicies are desirable, and that domestic institutions and internationalcommitments could serve this purpose.     

IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs and their Critics: Evidence from the Recent Experience of Egypt

The IMF-supported stabilization and structural adjustment programs implemented by Egypt in the 1990s were successful in meeting their objectives, and when compared with earlier attempts and the experience of other developing countries. The authorities undertook a sharp reduction in the government's overall deficit and its central bank financing allowing for increased credit availability to the private sector within a framework of a rapidly decelerating monetary expansion. Despite initiating comprehensive market reforms that significantly improved the environment for private investment, the response of the private sector has been disappointing. It is argued that until institutional, regulatory and political constraints are removed, Egypt will not join the group of high-investing and fast-growing economies.     

Economic growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia before and after the asian financial crisis

This paper assesses the relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Indonesia before and after the Asian financial crisis. The annual rate of poverty reduction slowed significantly in the post-crisis period. However, the trend in the growth elasticity of poverty indicates that the power of each percentage point of economic growth to reduce poverty did not change much between the two periods. In both, service sector growth made the largest contribution to poverty reduction in both rural and urban areas. Industrial sector growth largely became irrelevant for poverty reduction in the post-crisis period even though the sector contributed the second-largest share of GDP. Agricultural sector growth, mean-while, remained important, but in rural areas only. The findings suggest the need to formulate an effective strategy to promote sectoral growth in order to speed up the pace of poverty reduction.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE STRUCTURE OF TAXES IN SOUTH AFRICA: 1960–2002*

One tenet of taxation is its distorting effect on economic behaviour. Despite the economic inefficiencies resulting from taxation, it is widely believed that taxes impact minimally on the economy's growth rate. Evidence in developing countries generally supports this view. In this paper, we present evidence that tax distortions in South Africa may be much more severe. Using tax and economic data from 1960 to 2002 and a two‐stage modelling technique to control for unobservable business cycle variables, we examine the relationship between total taxation, the mix of taxation and economic growth. We find that decreased tax burdens are strongly associated with increased economic growth potential; in addition, contrary to most theoretical research, decreased indirect taxation relative to direct taxation is strongly correlated with increased economic growth potential.     

Development and structural change in rural Egypt, 1952 to 1982

This study evaluates the changes which have occurred in rural Egypt since 1952 in terms of a growth-conscious, poverty-oriented definition of development. According to the study, development requires improvements in three criteria over time: poverty, inequality and productivity (land and labor). Using a variety of empirical data, the study demonstrates that each of these criteria has either stabilized or improved in rural Egypt since 1952. The study therefore concludes that ’development’ has indeed taken place in the Egyptian countryside. However, the low rate of qualitative structural change in the basic factors of production (land and labor) raises questions about the prospects for such development in the future.     

The Role of the Real Estate Sector in the Structural Dynamics of the Chinese Economy: An Input–Output Analysis

Market‐oriented housing reforms and the rapid urbanization process have led to spectacular growth in the Chinese real estate sector (RES). However, the changes in the role played by this sector in the structural dynamics of the Chinese economy have not been examined sufficiently. Accordingly, we analyze the intersectoral structural changes to the Chinese RES, its linkages with the rest of the economy, and its growth sources, using four Chinese input–output tables from 2002 to 2017. We depart from existing work on the RES by using the causative matrix approach and structural decomposition analysis, and obtain three main results. First, the RES, which received little non‐RES feedback during the 2002–2007 period, has subsequently received much more substantial feedback. Second, the impact of the RES on China's economic growth stems mainly from its forward linkages. Third, the growth in the RES has been driven mainly by domestic demand expansion. Our results highlight that the Chinese RES, which plays a key role in value chains, is highly dependent on its own final demand and a fall in its demand would impede economic development. An important implication of these results is that developing the national economy by stimulating the RES would not be as effective as developing the RES through stimulating the national economy.     

Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth: Role of Tax Revenues and Infrastructures

To encourage economic growth in a developing economy, higher agricultural productivity has been believed to enhance the manufacturing sector's development, which provides the transition into industrialization. Although this positive linkage between agricultural productivity and economic growth has been judged to be incorrect, based upon the comparative advantage argument in a model of small-open economies by Matsuyama (1992), this article revisits the linkage by extending Matsuyama's model by introducing the revenue-generating effect, which is missing in his model. As agriculture is an important source of taxation in an early stage of economic development, higher agricultural productivity generates more tax revenues and facilitates spending on infrastructure. By introducing government taxation and infrastructure expenditure, we show that under proper conditions, higher agricultural productivity creates a positive growth effect via the revenue generation that dominates the negative growth effect through the comparative advantage. Moreover, introducing infrastructure expenditure may shift the manufacturing sector's original comparative disadvantage into comparative advantage, thereby enabling a trapped economy to take off and eventually industrialize. From the early stages of economic development in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, we can quantitatively assess an obvious net positive effect of agricultural productivity upon labor allocation and economic growth.     

内生经济模型下税收与经济增长的关系研究综述

本文对内生经济增长中的AK模型、人力资本模型和公共支出模型进行了对比和总结研究,以考察税收和经济增长的相关性。     

Industrial Structural Change and Economic Growth in China, 1987–2008

The present paper studies the sources of economic growth and the nature of structural change in the Chinese economy from 1987 to 2008. Using a methodology that evaluates the contribution of an industry to economic growth, the present paper shows that the post‐2000 subperiod marked an increased reliance on the services sector as a source of growth in the Chinese economy. Much of the acceleration in real GDP or aggregate labor productivity growth in China in the post‐2000 subperiod compared to the pre‐2000 period can be traced to an increased contribution from service‐producing and high‐technology exporting manufacturing industries. The evidence indicates that the Chinese economy has been rebalancing toward domestic consumption and shifting its export sector toward high‐technology manufacturing industries.     

政府财政政策对经济增长的影响——基于一个资本积累与创新相互作用模型的分析

政府财政政策对经济增长和社会福利的影响,是经济增长理论和宏观公共财政理论研究的重点,已经有大量的研究。本文在一个资本积累与创新相互作用的框架下内生化劳动力供给,假设政府通过征收平滑的收入税为公共支出融资,并且将政府公共支出区分为资本性支出和研发性支出,从而考察了税收和财政支出结构对经济增长的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,当政府通过征收收入税为生产性公共支出融资时,收入税税率与经济增长率之间存在一个倒U形的关系,从而回到了Barro(1990)的结论,尽管本文强调的政府财政政策作用于经济增长的机制与Barro(1990)差别较大;在基准经济(benchmark economy)的参数环境下,财政支出结构与经济增长率之间存在一个倒U型关系,从而经济中存在一个最优的财政支出结构。     

1992-2020年京津冀全要素生产率的估算——基于3种估计方法

基于1992—2020年京津冀3地宏观数据,利用索洛余值法、隐性变量法和数据包络分析3种方法,测算京津冀3地全要素生产率水平、增长率以及对经济增长贡献度等重要指标。结果显示：北京全要素生产率水平明显高于天津、河北;不同方法测算的全要素生产率增长率具有相同变化趋势,天津、河北两地的增长率变化趋势较一致,但与北京的增长率变化趋势不一致;京津冀区域的全要素生产率增长乏力,增长出现放缓甚至略微下降的局面;京津冀的经济增长主要来源于要素投入而非全要素生产率的提高;全要素生产率的增长,主要来源于技术进步而非效率提高。     

Game ranching inter-sectoral linkages: A structural path analysis for South Africa

Unfamiliarity with the economic structure of the game ranching sector is regarded as one of the reasons why questions are raised with regard to the potential economic impact of continued growth in the sector. This study employs structural path analysis to provide a better understanding and subsequently improves the ability to conceptualise the potential economic impact of the sector. Amongst others, results revealed strong economic links between the community, social and personal, chemicals and chemical products, manufacturing and equipment, transport equipment, business services sector, and so forth, either directly or indirectly, and the game ranching sector. The same accounts for income distribution, with households receiving income from production activities in other sectors that are directly or indirectly generated by stimulus within the game ranching sector. Finally, results underline the fact that game ranching has the potential for making a meaningful contribution towards economic and socioeconomic challenges in South Africa.     

Recession and the informal sector in South Africa

Despite the recent avalanche of writings investigating the informal sector, scant consideration has been accorded to the impact of an economic recession upon the growth and complexion of the informal sector.The object of this paper is to reflect upon the likely consequences of economic recession upon the South African informal sector in light of the extant international literature. Two different sets of processes are identified as impacting upon the growth and composition of the informal sector. The first suggests that the growth of the informal sector is the consequence of the lack of expansion of the formal sector. The second argues that much of the expansion in the informal sector is directly linked to its integration with formal sector enterprises. Under recessionary conditions, it is suggested that the growth of the informal sector may occur as a refuge from destitution but that the complexion of the informal economy will shift and be dominated by activities of a more ‘socially unacceptable’ nature.     

Economic Reform,Structural Changes,and Regional Economic Growth in China: Cross-Province Regressions

Through cross-province growth regressions this paper analyses the relationship between China's regional economic growth and economic reforms and structural changes since 1978. By applying the extreme bound analysis, the paper has demonstrated the statistical significance and robustness of the estimated coefficients of the following variables of interest: share of the state sector, share of foreign capital in capital formation, extra-budgetary funds to GNP ratio, and standard deviation of inflation. With these and such ‘always-included’ variables as GNP share of investment and initial level of illiteracy, regression models explain about 60% of cross-province variations in growth. The results suggest that continuing reductions in the state sector and attraction of foreign capital are two of the most important factors for rapid per capital income growth in China.     

Rural Informal Taxation in China： Historical Evolution and an Analytic Framework

The present paper examines the historical evolution of China's rural taxation system from the pre-reform period to the late 1990s. We propose that because of information asymmetry between the upper-level and the lower-level governments, local governments had to be granted some informal tax autonomy to fulfill the upper-level policy mandates. This easily led to excessive local informal taxation on farmers. As market liberalization of the grain sector progressed, the low-cost tax instruments implemented through the traditional approach of implicit taxation gradually eroded. Local governments in agricultural regions had to resort to informal fees collected directly from individual rural households while the more industrialized regions shifted to non-agricultural taxes that are less costly in terms of tax collection. Hence, political tension between farmers and local governments in agriculture- based regions emerged and rural tax reform became necessary.     

Indonesian Foreign Debt: Headed for A Crisis or Financing Sustainable Growth?

This paper examines the build-up in Indonesia's foreign debt between 1981 and 1993, and explores the potential for a debt crisis during Repelita VI. It concludes that Indonesia is not headed toward a crisis in the immediate future- Borrowed funds have generally financed productive investments, contributing to rapid growth in GDP and exports since the late 1980s. If recent trends continue, debt should ease gradually; if not, the economy could withstand a substantial balance of payments shock, at least for a while. A debt servicing problem, although unlikely, is conceivable by the end of the decade. Short-term debt is growing rapidly, non-oil export growth has slowed, and debt service remains high. Appropriate government actions to reduce the potential for a crisis include further deregulation to support growth in non-oil exports, discouraging implicit government guarantees for private sector projects, and reducing government exposure to yen-denominated debt.     

补贴资源性产业的扭曲效应研究——基于开放经济下的经济增长视角

本文在索洛—斯旺模型的基本框架下引入了资源中间品部门和资源中间品的国际贸易,构建了一个开放的经济增长模型。在此基础上进一步分析了补贴资源中间品部门引发的市场扭曲及其福利效应。本文的研究指出,在开放经济中,资源中间品的国际价格水平会影响经济增长的模式。当资源中间品的国际价格低于某一临界值时,经济增长是可持续的,否则经济增长将进入稳定状态。补贴资源中间品部门所产生的扭曲效应会受到资源中间品国际价格水平的影响,资源中间品的国际价格越高,补贴的福利损失越大。