THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A HETEROGENEOUS PANEL

This paper investigates the impact of government expenditure on growth, in a heterogeneous panel, for a sample of developing countries. Using generalized method of moments techniques, we show that countries with substantial government current expenditure have strong growth effects, which vary considerably across the nations.     

AVAILABILITY OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND LONG‐TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH*

In the present paper, we examine the economic growth effects of a limited availability of higher education in a simple endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. It is shown that this limited availability might promote economic growth by increasing aggregate savings. If the supply of human capital is restricted, its price remains high and a large share of aggregate output is distributed to young households, which need to save for their old age. When this growth‐enhancing effect is strong enough, an excessive increase in availability leads to a shortage of investable funds, which substantially reduces economic growth.     

MILITARY SPENDING,THREATS AND STOCHASTIC GROWTH

This paper analyses the impact of home military spending and foreign military threat on economic growth in a stochastic endogenous growth model involving the supply‐side and demand‐side effects produced by military spending. The paper states that an increase in home military spending affects economic growth through three channels, including the crowding‐out effect, the spin‐off effect, and the resource mobilization effect. The net effect which depends on these three channels is ambiguous. Hence, we demonstrate that there exists an optimal defence burden that maximizes the economic growth rate. Furthermore, the optimal defence burden depends on the degree of risk preference. Namely, the optimal defence burden of the risk‐loving agent is more than that of the risk‐neutral agent, and in turn is more than that of the risk‐averse agent. At the same time, we prove that the relationship between the volatility in military spending and economic growth also depends on the degree of risk preference. In addition, we show that greater volatility in foreign military spending leads to a decrease in home aggregate consumption, and hence speeds up economic growth in the home country.     

国内外旅游对经济增长影响研究综述

在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,文章对国内外旅游对经济增长的影响研究进行了较为详细的比较综述。国外的旅游经济增长影响研究始于19世纪末,兴盛于1960年代,研究焦点集中在基于出口驱动型经济增长假说的入境旅游对经济增长的影响、旅游专业化对经济增长的影响及基于收敛假说的旅游对区域经济均衡增长的影响三个方面。国内研究始于1990年代,研究焦点为旅游产业地位及其与经济增长关系的判断。国内外相关研究既有共同点,也有差异。旅游对区域经济增长及其均衡发展的影响开始受到关注。     

THE MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS*

This study develops a model wherein capital is used in final goods production and research and development (R&D) activities. This arrangement generates changes of the equilibrium capital allocation corresponding to capital endowment, which engenders a regime change from capital based growth with decreasing returns to R&D based perpetual growth. These two growth phases account for the polarization of economies. The model also engenders multiple equilibria on capital allocation—which emerge during the middle stages of capital accumulation—accounting for leapfrogging and the instability of the economic growth of developing countries with medium capital accumulation.     

外资对我国区域经济增长的影响

本文分析了我国利用外资的基本形势和区域分异,并利用Granger因果性检验法检验了我国各区域外资对区域经济增长的影响,发现外资对我国区域经济增长并没有决定性的影响,而西部地区较之东部沿海地区,外资对区域经济增长有着较为显著的影响。据此,笔者从改革开放后我国区域发展的基本格局和外资的经济影响的角度给予了初步的解释。     

以外贸为主的外部冲击,竞争与区域经济增长

全球化对于相对封闭的国家和区域而言可视为一种外部冲击，这种冲击会对消费结构、市场、政府及宏观经济产生影响。这种冲击的必要性和可能的效应源于个体效用函数。基于微观假设的多重效应可以在宏观上得以映证。选取外贸及人口密度等指标对中国各省市的实证分析表明，外部冲击的强弱会对经济增长产生不同的影响，而这种冲击的内在机制在于竞争机制。     

GROWTH, R&D AND WELFARE: THE ROLE OF PUBLIC POLICY

This paper analyzes the normative side of an R&D growth model in which market structure and growth are jointly determined in the equilibrium of a one‐sector economy under monopolistic competition. We find that a distortion in the allocation of R&D, namely the presence of technological spillovers between firms, generates two market failures: insufficient growth and excessive entry of firms. We show that this result is driven by the interplay between market structure and growth. A simple tax/subsidy scheme to support the efficient solution is proposed.     

SECTOR‐SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES AND STATUS PREFERENCES IN THE UZAWA‐LUCAS MODEL*

This paper shows that introducing preferences for social status based on human capital holdings modifies the finding of Gómez (2004 ) that sector‐specific externalities associated with human capital in the goods sector do not violate the optimality of the competitive economy in the Uzawa–Lucas model. The effect of an increase in the degree of sector‐specific externalities is qualitatively the same as that of an increase in the strength of the desire for status. Hence, paradoxically, a greater degree of sector‐specific externalities makes human capital accumulation more excessive from the social point of view.     

长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

采用协整检验和因果检验对长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。检验结果表明长株潭地区的贷款增长率与中介效率增长率对经济增长具有正向促进作用,但是中介效率增长率对经济增长的促进作用不显著;贷款增长率与经济增长率之间具有双向因果关系。在实证研究的基础上,提出了相关的结论和建议。     

“两次金融危机”产生的原因与影响及对中国经济发展的启迪

分析1997年"亚洲金融危机"和2007年"世界金融危机"产生的原因及其异同点与"两次金融危机"对世界及其中国经济发展的影响.在此基础上,探讨"两次金融危机"对中国经济发展的启迪,为中国在今后经济发展中防范和应对金融危机提供科学依据.     

中国城市经济增长多因素分析

本文用定量方法讨论了开放条件下影响中国城市经济发展的主要因素,发现工业效率仍然是最重要的影响因素;同时,开放政策、利用外资和三资企业等开放要素对城市经济发展具有重要的影响作用。各种开放要素对不同开放程度、不同规模级的城市所起的作用不同。     

区域经济增长的结构性分析与对策探究

随着市场经济体制的不断建立和完善,区域经济增长的主基调已开始转变为以结构调整为核心动力的内涵型增长。通过对区域经济增长结构性关键因素的实证分析,旨在探寻区域经济结构的变动特征,并给出若干政策模拟建议,有助于政府更好地对经济的结构性调整发挥引导作用。     

中国区域经济增长条件趋同研究

选择了地理环境、要素投入、增长过程、政策扰动4个稳态因子研究中国区域经济增长条件趋同。结果表明,1978—2008年中国区域经济增长没有发生绝对趋同。但是,在要素投入、增长过程这两个稳态因子的分别作用下,中国区域经济增长均发生了明显的条件趋同,趋同速度分别为1.2%和2.2%。而在地理环境、政策扰动因子的分别作用下,中国区域经济增长均没有出现条件趋同。在上述4个稳态因子的综合作用下,1978—2008年中国区域经济增长出现了条件趋同,趋同速度仅仅为1.4%。这提示我们,要解决好中国的区域经济差异问题,应该把注意力更多地放在有效推进区域的工业化、城市化、市场化、对外开放、信息化,以及增加物质资本、劳动力、人力资本和知识的投入上。     

外贸对经济增长的影响分析:理论与经验模型验证

国际贸易理论的核心问题是探究贸易利益的产生及其分配,国际贸易与经济增长具有密切联系。理论分析和经验证据均表明,一国外贸规模对经济增长有着重要作用,对外贸易的变动往往成为决定一国经济增长趋势的关键因素。文章从理论和经验模型上对我国近10多年来外贸和经济增长的关系给出了相关的实证检验,旨在探讨并揭示国际贸易促进经济增长的内在机制。     

THE EFFICIENCY OF THE STATE‐OWNED FIRM AND SOCIAL WELFARE: A NOTE

We consider a mixed market where a state‐owned firm competes with private firms. If the number of firms is exogenous, then a deterioration of the efficiency of the state‐owned firm might improve social welfare. This situation occurs when the state‐owned firm is inefficient and private firms are efficient. However, if the number of firms is endogenous, then a deterioration of the efficiency of the state‐owned firm must reduce social welfare.     

中国区域经济增长关联性与协调发展研究

文章提出了区域间经济增长关联性的定义,并以此定义为基础对我国东部、中部、西部及东北四大政策区域间经济增长的关联性进行检验。结果表明:①西部与东部及东北地区间均形成了良好的相互促进的经济增长关联性。同时,中部、东部及西部等三大地区之间也形成了较好的经济增长关联性。除此之外,其他区域组合之间不存在经济增长关联性。②西部经济增长是东部及东北地区经济增长的Granger原因,而东部、东北及西部同为中部地区经济增长的Granger原因。③利用VAR模型的脉冲响应函数方法分析了各区域的经济增长受到干扰后对其他区域经济增长的影响,并发现,发达的东部地区对欠发达的中部、西部及东北地区的经济具有明显的带动作用。然而,这些欠发达区域的经济对于东部地区的经济增长没有产生较强的推进作用,而且,欠发达区域之间也没有形成相互促进经济增长的机制。最后,提出了增强我国区域经济增长的关联性以推动区域经济协调发展进程的政策建议。     

1990年以来外资对江苏经济增长的影响

文章分析了1990年以来江苏利用外资的基本形势,利用FDI业绩指数和多元回归模型检验外资对江苏省经济增长的影响,证明外资对江苏经济增长有显著影响。江苏省开放型经济格局为外资流入创造了良好环境,外资流入与经济增长的省内差异显著,从地区结构看,苏南、苏中、苏北的外资与经济增长呈梯度递减,从城乡关系来看,城市,尤其是行政级别较高的地级市是外资和经济增长的主要集中地,再次证明二者之间联系紧密。     

台湾地区要素投入对经济增长的作用

经济增长是由资本、劳动力、技术等多种要素共同推动的,各要素投入的数量、质量和效率决定了产出的增长。文章以经济增长相关理论为基础,通过合理选取和度量有关变量数据,构建台湾地区经济增长模型,并对模型进行计量检验和要素分析,从而揭示台湾地区要素投入与经济增长的关系,以及各要素在经济增长中的作用。     

SOCIAL STATUS,EDUCATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A TWO‐SECTOR MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

This paper extends the relative wealth specification of status preference to the two‐sector Uzawa (1965 )– Lucas (1988 ) model and examines the effectiveness of government spending on economic growth. It is found that the desire for relative wealth‐induced social status and/or the education component of relative wealth‐induced social status are important ingredients in determining the growth rate effects of government spending. Provided that the agent is concerned with his or her relative social position, the education‐induced social status plays a more important role than the physical‐asset‐induced social status in determining the validity of public spending on growth. If individuals do not care about their education‐driven social rewards, then an increase in government spending has no effect on the balanced growth rate regardless of the presence of the physical‐asset‐induced social status. A rise in government spending reduces the long‐run growth rate if the education‐induced social status is present.