Earnings management and accrual anomaly across market states and business cycles

This paper examines if the conditioning on market states is important to earnings management behaviors and profitability of accrual hedge strategy. This paper discusses four findings. First, accrual profits are consistently positive across both market states and significantly higher in DOWN markets. Second, while earnings management exists in both market states, the management effort is less effective and short-lived in the DOWN state. Third, this paper finds that the accrual effect exists but varies across industries. Finally, this paper examines how business cycles associate with accrual anomaly and show that accruals mispricing cannot be fully captured by macroeconomic model predicted returns.     

Explaining the accrual anomaly by market expectations of future returns and earnings

This study examines the accrual anomaly under the framework of the Campbell [Campbell, J.Y. (1991). A variance decomposition for stock returns. Economic Journal 101 (405), 157-179.] model. The Campbell (1991) model shows that realized asset returns are a joint function of 1) expected returns, 2) revisions in market expected future returns (i.e., return news), and 3) revisions in market expected future cash flows (i.e., cash flow news). The current study adopts the Easton [Easton, P. (2004). PE ratios, PEG ratios, and estimating the implied expected rate of return on equity capital. The Accounting Review 79 (1), 73-96.] model to estimate proxies for expected returns, return news, and cash flow news. The results show that firms with low accruals have lower expected returns than firms with high accruals, which is contradictory to prior research that argues that firms with low accruals are more risky. However, investors underestimate (overestimate) future earnings growth, a proxy for cash flow growth, for low (high) accrual firms. Further analysis demonstrates that earnings news (proxy for cash flow news) plays a major role in explaining abnormal returns associated with the accrual anomaly.     

IFRS adoption and analysts’ earnings forecasts: Australian evidence

We study 145 large listed Australian firms to explore the impact of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) adoption on the properties of analysts’ forecasts and the role of firm disclosure about IFRS impact. We find that analyst forecast accuracy improves, and there is no significant change in dispersion in the adoption year, suggesting that analysts coped effectively with transition to IFRS. However, we do not observe the expected relationship between firms’ IFRS impact disclosures in their financial statements issued at the end of the transition year with forecast error and dispersion in the adoption year. The results question the timeliness and usefulness of financial statement disclosure, even in a setting where disclosure was mandated by accounting standards (AASB 1047 and AASB 1) and firms had strong incentives to provide information to analysts.     

Limits-to-arbitrage, investment frictions, and the asset growth anomaly

We empirically evaluate the predictions of the mispricing hypothesis with limits-to-arbitrage suggested by Shleifer and Vishny (1997) and the q-theory with investment frictions proposed by Li and Zhang (2010) on the negative relation between asset growth and average stock returns. We conduct cross-sectional regressions of returns on asset growth on subsamples split by a given measure of limits-to-arbitrage or investment frictions. We show that: (i) proxies for limits-to-arbitrage and proxies for investment frictions are often highly correlated; (ii) the evidence based on equal-weighted returns shows significant support for both hypotheses, while the evidence from value-weighted returns is weaker; and (iii) in direct comparisons, each hypothesis is supported by a fair and similar amount of evidence.     

Estimating and validating a firm‐year‐specific measure of conservatism: Australian evidence

We provide new evidence on the asymmetric timeliness with which economic gains and losses are recognized in Australian financial reporting (i.e. conservatism), as well as some of the factors associated with variation in conservatism. We first derive, and then estimate and subsequently validate, a firm‐year‐specific measure of conservatism (C_Score) in the manner suggested by Khan and Watts (2007) . Our results indicate that conservatism is a pervasive feature of the Australian financial reporting environment. Conservatism is positively associated with stock return volatility, investment cycle length and prior period conservatism, and it is negatively associated with firm age, firm size and leverage. The results are an encouraging start for research into the causes and consequences of conservatism in Australian financial reporting.     

The effect of board composition on the informativeness and quality of annual earnings: Empirical evidence from Greece

This study examines how the informational quality of annual accounting earnings, varies according to the size and composition of the board of directors of publicly listed firms within the Greek capital market. Data analysis over a period of five years (2000-2004) revealed that the informativeness of annual accounting earnings is positively related to the fraction of outside directors serving on the board, but it is not related to board size. Additionally, firms with a higher proportion of outside board members proved to be more conservative when reporting bad news but on the contrary they do not display greater timeliness on the recognition of good news. Finally, firms with a higher proportion of outside directors report earnings of higher quality compared to firms with a low proportion of outside directors. Our results are robust to several sensitivity tests controlling for endogeneity, firm's fixed effects and alternative models for the estimation of discretionary accruals.     

Exploring attitudes to financial reporting in the Australian not‐for‐profit sector

The current level of satisfaction among different stakeholders about the current approaches and practises of financial reporting of not‐for‐profit (NFP) entities is underexplored ( Christensen and Mohr, 2003 ; Lee, 2004 ; Gray et al., 2006 ; Parker, 2007 ). This paper uses content analysis to examine submissions to the 2008 Australian Senate Economics Standing Committee for its inquiry into the disclosure regimes of charities and NFP organisations, which aimed to explore attitudes about financial reporting in the NFP sector. Financial reporting is viewed as an important part of accountability, but the sector identifies deficiencies in the current regime in terms of consistency, efficiency and transparency. Respondents to this inquiry believed that a sector‐specific accounting standard was important. Financial reporting standards, regulations and legal structures should be uniform across the entire sector, but with some variation allowed for smaller NFPs. The cost of complying with standards was a significant issue for smaller NFPs.     

Regulations,earnings management,and post-IPO performance: The Chinese evidence

In this study, we examine whether government regulatory initiatives in China involving IPO by SOEs may have contributed to opportunistic behaviors by the issuer. We focus on two sets of IPO regulations issued between January 1, 1996 and February 11, 1999: pricing regulations, which stipulate that IPO prices be a function of accounting performance, and penalty regulations, which penalize IPO firms for overly optimistic forecasts. We find that IPO firms that report better pricing-period accounting performance have larger declines in post-IPO profitability, lower first-day stock returns and worse long-run post-IPO stock performance. Furthermore, IPO firms that make overoptimistic forecasts also have lower first-day returns and worse post-IPO stock performance. Using non-core earnings as the proxy for earnings management, we document some evidence that IPO firms that report higher pricing-period accounting performance have engaged in more income-increasing earnings management. Hence, pricing regulations may have induced IPO firms to inflate pricing-period earnings and affect the post-IPO performance negatively. On the other hand, penalty regulations have deterred IPO firms from making overoptimistic earnings forecast and therefore have a positive impact on the behavior of IPO firms.     

Proportionate consolidation versus the equity method: Additional evidence on the association with bond ratings

From a financial analysis perspective, proportionate consolidation of significant influence equity investments is often presumed to provide more useful information than equity method accounting. Surprisingly, Kothavala [Kothavala, K., 2003, Proportional consolidation versus the equity method: A risk measurement perspective on reporting interests in joint ventures, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 22, 517-538.] finds that financial statement measures based on the equity method are more relevant for bond ratings than are similar measures based on proportionate consolidation. This study provides additional evidence regarding this issue. Using a sample of manufacturing firms with significant influence equity investments accounted for under U.S. GAAP, the results indicate that pro forma proportionately consolidated financial statements have greater relevance than equity method statements for explaining bond ratings.     

How do corporate political connections influence financial reporting? A synthesis of the literature

A large stream of research has analyzed the effects of corporate political connections (CPCs) on firms, including first evidence on their effects on financial reporting behavior. However, the evidence so far is inconclusive, and attempts to explain the causality of effects on reporting are limited. In this article, we present the results of a systematic review of the literature on CPCs. We draw on findings in the accounting, finance, and economics literature and derive a framework that identifies four channels through which CPCs affect financial reporting. Our review of the literature suggests that effects of political connections tend to be more ambiguous than suggested by individual studies that often offer directional hypotheses. We also identify eight distinct types of political connectedness and discuss their interrelations and the proxies used in the literature to measure them.     

News-driven return reversals: Liquidity provision ahead of earnings announcements

This study documents a six-fold increase in short-term return reversals during earnings announcements relative to non-announcement periods. Following prior research, we use reversals as a proxy for expected returns market makers demand for providing liquidity. Our findings highlight significant time-series variation in the magnitude of short-term return reversals and suggest that market makers demand higher expected returns prior to earnings announcements because of increased inventory risks that stem from holding net positions through the release of anticipated earnings news. Collectively, our findings suggest that uncertainty regarding anticipated information events elicits predictable increases in the compensation demanded for providing liquidity and that these increases significantly affect the dynamics and information content of market prices.     

Value versus growth: Australian evidence

The value‐growth effect is one of the most pervasive patterns in stock prices. In this study, the ability of four proxies for value‐growth, book‐to‐market, sales‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and cash‐flow‐to‐price to explain equity returns is analysed. The findings show that in aggregate, book‐to‐market best explains cross‐sectional variation in Australian equity returns, which in isolation suggests that it is the superior proxy for value‐growth. The analysis is taken further and the value‐growth effect is examined separately in positive and negative earnings firms. After segregating firms, it is found that in the negative earnings sample, book‐to‐market is the best value‐growth proxy and in the positive earnings sample, cash‐flow‐to‐price has the highest level of significance and is thus the superior value‐growth proxy. The economic significance of this result is telling, as the firms that report positive earnings are much larger than those that report negative earnings.     

Banks' Use of Accounting Discretion and Regulatory Intervention: The Case of European Banks' Impairments on Greek Government Bonds

This paper analyzes troubled banks' use of accounting discretion and its interaction with regulatory intervention in a time of financial distress. We analyze impairment losses that Europe's largest banks recognized on Greek Government Bonds (GGB) during 2011, the time during which GGB were considered impaired. Our findings reveal considerable variation in the impairment ratios across banks. Banks with larger GGB exposures, for which a full impairment would deplete a large share of regulatory capital, recognize significantly lower impairment ratios. Furthermore, we find that troubled banks delay full impairments until state aid is provided. Troubled banks recognize significantly lower impairment ratios in the quarter before they are provided with state aid, but substantially increase their impairment ratios afterwards. This pattern is consistent with the notion that troubled banks initially understate impairments to conceal the full extent of their financial difficulties from less sophisticated non-regulator outsiders (e.g., depositors and the general public), which increases regulators' ability to practice forbearance by not intervening immediately.     

Stock return volatility,operating performance and stock returns: International evidence on drivers of the ‘low volatility’ anomaly

This study highlights the link between stock return volatility, operating performance, and stock returns. Prior studies suggest that there is a ‘low volatility’ anomaly, where firms with a low stock return volatility out-perform firms with a high stock return volatility. This paper confirms that low volatility stocks earn higher returns than high volatility stocks in emerging markets and developed markets outside of North America. We also show that low volatility stocks have higher operating returns and this might explain why low volatility stocks earn higher stock returns. These results provide a partial explanation for the ‘low volatility effect’ that is independent from the existence of market anomalies or per se inefficiencies that might otherwise drive a low volatility effect. We emphasize the importance of controlling for stock return volatility when analyzing operating performance and stock performance.     

Accounting-based regulation in emerging markets: The case of China's seasoned-equity offerings

In China, listed companies are required to achieve a minimum return on equity (ROE) before they can apply for permission to issue additional shares through seasoned-equity offerings (SEO). We document two benefits of this accounting-based regulation in China. First, this regulation limits the increase in the supply of shares and the dilution of existing share prices. The Chinese stock market reacted positively to the announcement of this accounting-based regulation. Moreover, investors' reactions to SEO, announcements are less negative since the accounting-based regulation was introduced than before the regulation was enacted. The second benefit is that the regulation reduces adverse selection in SEO, as shown by the finding that prior to this regulation, firms below the ROE threshold underperformed the market after their SEO, much like what has been observed in other markets; while those above the threshold outperformed the market. Thus, although positive accounting theory predicts that regulations based on accounting numbers create incentives for managers to manipulate their accounting numbers, accounting-based regulations in China seem to serve some useful purposes.     

The impact of the stapled security structure on the quality of financial disclosure: Evidence from Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts and Listed Infrastructure Funds

This paper is the first study to explore whether the stapled structure influences firms’ activities in earnings management (EM). Trusts and firms under stapled securities are exposed to various managerial opportunities and activities that can provide the flexibility of using EM approaches. Therefore, the stapled structure is expected to induce increased EM behavior and signal a lower level of financial disclosure quality than the unstapled structure. This empirical research analyzes a panel dataset that contains information of Australian REITs (A-REITs) and Listed Infrastructure Funds (LIFs) from the year of 2000–2017. Evidence shows that stapled A-REITs and LIFs use a greater magnitude of EM approaches than unstapled entities. The results imply that the stapled security structure may signal lower-quality of financial disclosure for firms than the unstapled security structure. This study provides additional insight into the understanding of how the security structure may impact firms’ financial disclosure behavior.     

The impact of accounting information quality on the mispricing of accruals: The case of FRS3 in the UK

We exploit a unique setting of accounting regulation change to examine how accounting information quality affects the well-documented accrual anomaly. We show a significant reduction in the negative return predictability of accruals among UK companies with poorer accounting information quality following the introduction of Financial Reporting Standard No. 3: Reporting Financial Performance (FRS3). While the functional fixation hypothesis attributes the mispricing of accruals to the judgemental error of end-users of information, our findings suggest that the supply side of information also plays a crucial role. Our results provide evidence that regulatory interventions seeking to improve accounting information quality can reduce the mispricing of securities in the capital market.