Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study

At the same time as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been encouraging trade liberalized, there has been a proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). These RTAs also aim to reduce trade barriers, but they do so it in a preferential way. There is continued debate as to whether such RTAs are an effective way of achieving free trade, or if increased trade among members causes less trade with non-member countries? If RTAs increase total trade, this is known as ‘trade creation’, whereas if the extra trade occurs at the expense of non-members, this is called ‘trade diversion’. Trade creation implies improved welfare, whereas ‘trade diversion’ may adversely affect welfare. This paper examines five different RTAs using a gravity model to see if they have been trade creating or trade diverting. Annual data from 26 countries covering five RTAs in the Asia and Pacific region for the years 1980–2000 was used.The results show that the effects of the different RTAs varied remarkably. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) fostered greater trade with trading partners and with the rest of the world. While the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) tended to be trade diverting, that is, they expanded intra-bloc trade at the expense of trade with others.     

BORDER BARRIERS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE IMPACT OF THEIR ELIMINATION: EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIA

We investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and nontariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade in a notional East Asian Free Trade Agreement using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-based computable general equilibrium model. The investigation is divided into two parts. We first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely used method derived from the literature on border effects. Then, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does incorporate, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and NTPBs) on GDP. The result shows that there are remarkable differences between the effect of abolition of import tariffs and that of entire elimination of all import barriers.     

The impact of AFTA on intra-AFTA trade

ASEAN countries have liberalised intra-ASEAN trade over the last 20 years by establishing the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). This paper aims to examine the impact of trade liberalisation under AFTA on intra-ASEAN trade. By applying a gravity model, we find positive and significant trade creation effects from the tariff elimination for a wide range of products. In addition, the analysis reveals that the elasticity of tariff reduction on imports tends to be much larger than that on exports. Trade creation effects for the new ASEAN members are relatively small compared to those for the old members. Our results show that AFTA has been successful in promoting intra-AFTA trade, while we argue that further expansion may be achieved by increasing the use of AFTA and by reducing/removing non-tariff measures (NTMs) through such ways as improving customs procedures and harmonizing/mutually recognizing product standards.     

新环境新变化--日本对外贸易政策动向评析

进入新世纪以来，日本所面对的贸易环境发生了较大变化，WTO首轮多边贸易谈判得以启动，区域自由贸易协定(下称区域协定)发展势头强劲，中国成功加入WTO，日本贸易收支盈余出现减少倾向等，都对日本对外贸易政策产生了一定的影响。     

INTRAINDUSTRY SPECIALIZATION AND THE UNITED STATES–CENTRAL AMERICA–DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This paper examines changes in intraindustry specialization indicators over the 1992–2004 period to assess the potential for structural adjustment problems that may arise in the United States with growth in trade resulting from the United States–Central America–Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA‐DR) between the United States and six Central American countries—Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. CAFTA‐DR will expand market access for US exporters. Few US industries are likely to encounter structural adjustment problems. Given the relatively large size of the US economy, and the small number of industries that face potential adjustment pressures, the United States should have liberalized all trade immediately. When potential adjustment pressures are indicated, long tariff phaseouts, complex rules of origin, and import safeguards are used to delay factor adjustments in import‐sensitive industries.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

Evolutionary paths toward a region-wide economic agreement in Asia

The creation of a region-wide economic agreement in Asia has become a hot topic among trade policymakers in the region. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2010 Summit Statement clearly states that members should pursue a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) by building on various ongoing regional cooperation frameworks including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+3, ASEAN+6, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This paper attempts to streamline the policy arguments over sequencing issues by clarifying the pros and cons of various paths toward a future region-wide agreement in Asia. The paper presents two possible approaches: consolidation versus expansion. It then identifies how the two approaches differ in terms of evolutionary parameters including the timing of negotiations, scope of agreement, and development of membership. The driving forces behind the evolution of regional agreements in each approach are also clarified. The second half of the paper analyzes three possible paths toward a region-wide agreement—ASEAN+α free trade agreements, TPP, and the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA)—in terms of both evolutionary parameters and driving forces.     

Swing Voting and Fast‐Track Authority

Following the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993 and the Uruguay Round Agreement in 1994, the United States appeared to be on the verge of an era of unprecedented trade liberalization. Since that time, however, the United States has struggled to pass almost every important trade liberalization bill. Results indicate that the factor most likely responsible for the difficulty in achieving trade liberalization over the last 15 years is shifting pressures within the U.S. House of Representatives related to partisanship and constituency.     

中、澳经贸:自由贸易协定的机遇和挑战

中、澳自由贸易协定谈判从2005年10月开始,迄今已经进行了9个回合。本文分析了中、澳双边经贸关系的现状,并探讨了自由贸易协定给中、澳经贸可能带来的机遇和挑战,并提出推动中、澳经贸关系、加速中、澳自由贸易区建设的一些建议。     

日本依托区域经济一体化主导国际经贸规则制定权的战略分析

以安倍第二次出任日本首相为分水岭,起步晚、发展迅速的日本区域经济一体化战略发生了巨大的变化:由昔日高度重视通过参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来确保日本经济稳定发展的资源供给、不断开拓的海外市场转向了依托参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来主导国际经贸规则制定权。为此,安倍政府实施了以TPP/CPTPP、RCEP、中日韩FTA等区域多边贸易协定为龙头,以日欧EPA、日美贸易协定、日美数字贸易协定、日英EPA等双边自由贸易协定为两翼的区域经济一体化战略,使日本"成为在区域层面以及双边层面创造规则的国家"。     

中国-东盟经贸关系的发展进程及前景

上世纪90年代中期以来,中国与东盟的政治经济关系获得了很大的发展,《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》的正式签订更使中国-东盟经贸关系出现了里程碑式的转折。本文在充分阐述中国与东盟经贸关系发展进程与初步成效的基础上,着重对中国-东盟自由贸易区建设面临的主要问题进行了深入的分析,并提出了相应的对策措施。这对人们充分认识中国-东盟自由贸易区建设的复杂性与重要性,以及如何更好地推进中国与整个东亚的区域经济合作不无裨益。     

关于外高桥保税区对浦东经济发展的推动性分析

外高桥保税区是我国成立最早、规模最大的保税区,与浦东新区"同龄"。本文通过多角度、多方位的分析,反映了外高桥保税区对浦东经济发展的巨大推力作用。论文首先以时间为轴,动态分析外高桥保税区经济发展水平的快速增长;然后从综合经济指标和单位产出效益两方面对外高桥保税区与浦东新区的经济效益关系进行分析,继而比较保税区与其他开发区的经济效益,凸显保税区的优势;最后建立回归方程,分析保税区的贸易活动对浦东新区经济增长的影响。     

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans‐Pacific Partnership: Policy Options of China

As a result of deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have embarked on the establishment of bilateral and regional trade agreements. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project database and a computable general equilibrium model, our paper focuses on the impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Chinese economy under three scenarios. The results suggest that when only the TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both the TTIP and the TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage to the Chinese economy is higher than the damage with the TTIP alone. However, the inclusion of China in the TPP has a positively effect on economic variables in China. This indicates that the impacts of China's participation in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP. Therefore, China should consider being part of the TPP to offset the negative impacts of the TTIP.     

Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China＇s International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

This study aims to examine the impact of the China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; (ii) CAFTA will accelerate China's export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages, such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and (iii) CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China's regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer. Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.     

Free trade or protection? belgian textile and clothing firms’ trade preferences

Free Trade or Protection? Belgian Textile and Clothing Firms' Trade Preferences. -This paper examines the positions of Belgian textile and clothing firms on trade policies. Observations on positions are generated by a survey. Along the lines of the political economy of protection and anti-protection we test whether firm-specific characteristics influence textile and clothing firms' trade policy preferences. The results show that international competition and having foreign establishments significantly determine firms' positions, but that product differentiation does not. A Chow test indicates no significant difference between firms' sensitivities in the textile and clothing industries. This suggests that the two professional organizations should co-operate on trade issues.     

Eastern European trade and the Austrian labour market

Eastern European Trade and the Austrian Labour Market. — Recent years have seen a major break in trade relations between Western and Eastern European countries. Austria experienced a large bilateral trade creation with these countries. In this paper, the authors take a closer look at the impact this trade growth had on the Austrian labour market. To differentiate as far as possible between different segments of the labour market, they concentrate on unemployment experience and wage growth for a panel of individual workers in Austrian industry. The results show rather small employment effects, the impact on wage growth is more pronounced with interesting modifications for mobile and immobile workers.     

中国—东盟自贸区如期建成背景下的人才培养研究

中国—东盟自由贸易区已于2010年1月1日如期建成,加强自由贸易区人才资源开发领域的交流与合作成为加快自由贸易区建设、促进自由贸易区发展繁荣的重要内容。研究中国—东盟自由贸易区需要的人才类型,在人才培养方面存在的主要问题,进而提出中国—东盟自由贸易区人才培养的对策,以满足自贸区发展对人才的需要。     

Changing Comparative Advantage,Real Exchange Rate Impact and Sino–Japanese Trade Fluctuations

China, as an important source country in the global value chain, especially in the East Asian production networks, has exerted significant influence on Sino–Japanese trade fluctuations. This paper explores the real factors that lead to the fluctuations in Sino–Japanese trade. Using the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique and OECD–WTO Statistics on Trade in Value Added from 1995 to 2011, the impact of the changing comparative advantage between the two countries is also examined. The empirical results indicate that determinants of the fluctuations in Sino–Japapese trade include changing comparative advantages, the volatility of the real exchange rate and quite a few external shocks. Some policy suggestions are put forward in regards to the stability of trade between the two countries.     

A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade

We used social network analysis to examine the country attributes and patterns of intra‐African trade between 2002 and 2017. The results showed that, generally, trade networks in Africa have become denser, and have the characteristics of the core‐periphery structure and small world phenomenon. Trade imbalances are widely found among African countries with the evidence that structure holes exist in intra‐African trade networks highlighted by the motif detectors. Using Quadratic Assignment Procedure, we found that countries that possess closer economic, geographic and cultural distance, but longer institutional distance, are more likely to form trade networks. However, many countries and the regional economic communities on the continent, have not adequately manifested these favourable characteristics for enhancing intra‐African trade. The implications are proposed that countries should develop their strategies, expedite structural adjustment, and foster competitive industries to cope with the external competition and seize opportunities of regional integration brought by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. It is also critical to efficiently address the overlapping problems of regional economic communities and intensify their coordination with AfCFTA.     

INDONESIAN TRADE LIBERALISATION: ESTIMATING THE GAINS

Indonesia has undergone comprehensive trade liberalisation by participating in multilateral and regional trade arrangements and by conducting unilateral liberalisation. This paper evaluates the different paths of liberalisation the country has followed, and measures their effects on the economy. It considers the impact of several liberalisation scenarios: unilateral liberalisation; regional liberalisation through APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) and AFTA (the ASEAN Free Trade Area); and multilateral trade liberalisation through the Uruguay Round (UR). The results show that the full implementation of UR and APEC liberalisation would greatly benefit Indonesia, and that unilateral liberalisation, carried out in conjunction with the UR commitment, would lead to large welfare gains. On the other hand, the creation of AFTA is expected to add little to welfare in Indonesia or in the other ASEAN member countries.