PROSPECTS FOR ‘CLOSING THE GAP’ IN SOCIOECONOMIC OUTCOMES FOR INDIGENOUS AUSTRALIANS?

Practical reconciliation' and more recently 'closing the gap' have been put forward as frameworks on which to base and evaluate policies to address Indigenous disadvantage. This paper analyses national-level census-based data to examine trends in Indigenous wellbeing since 1971. There has been steady improvement in most socioeconomic outcomes in the last 35 years; a finding at odds with the current discourse of failure. Evidence of convergence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous outcomes, however, is not consistent. For some outcomes, relatively rapid convergence is predicted (within 25 years), but for the majority of outcomes, convergence is unlikely to occur within a generation, if at all.     

IS THERE AN ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOUR IN AFRICAN INFLATION? A NON‐LINEAR APPROACH

In this paper we test the inflation persistence hypothesis as well as model the long‐run behaviour of inflation rates in a pool of African countries using a non‐linear framework. In order to do so, we rely on unit root tests applied to non‐linear models and fractional integration. The results show that the hypothesis of inflation persistence does not hold empirically for most of the countries. In addition, the estimated models (logistic smooth transition autoregressions) are stable in the sense that the variable tends to remain in the regime (low inflation or high inflation) once reached, and changes between regimes are only achieved after a shock. The results also indicate that the effects of the shocks on inflation tend to die out; exogenous factors, i.e. supply shocks and inertia may be causing this outcome, as they play a substantial role in the determination of the inflation rates for our selected African countries.     

PARCHING THE LAND?: THE CHETTIARS IN BURMA

In the history of Burma's economy, few groups have been as vilified as the Chettiars. A community of Indian moneylenders, the Chettiars were crucial agents in transforming Burma into the rice bowl of Asia. Following the global depression of the 1930s, Burmese agriculture became severely distressed and wide-scale loan default saw the transfer of much of Burma's cultivatable land to the Chettiars, who were demonised and made scapegoats for the vices of colonialism. The paper draws on the 'information-theoretic revolution' in economics to reappraise the role of the Chettiars in Burma. We conclude the Chettiars merit history's better judgement.     

THE ROLE OF THE HIGH COURT IN FEDERAL ARBITRATION DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION: PRESERVING A FUTURE FOR ‘REASON AND MORAL SUASION’?

Between 1929 and 1933 the Australian federal system of conciliation and arbitration came under economic and political strain. This article reveals that arbitration proved to be an adaptable industrial relations framework for dealing with economic depression. While the monetary entitlements of workers were reduced, the legal instrumentality that conferred the wage cuts, the Arbitration Court, itself defied abolition and evolved to be a protective body. There was a subtle and previously unremarked interaction in the regulatory functions of the High Court, the Arbitration Court, and the Commonwealth Parliament characterised by the purposeful abstention of the High Court and Scullin Government and the activism of the Arbitration Court.     

DELAYS IN STABILIZATION OR IN REFORMS? THE DEBT CRISIS

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s’ debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long‐run approach. Revising this long‐run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade‐policy reforms, with a model in which terms‐of‐trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.     

IS THERE EVIDENCE OF A WAGE PENALTY TO FEMALE PART‐TIME EMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA?

In this paper, we investigate female part‐time employment in South Africa. Using household survey data for South Africa from 1995 to 2004, we show that women are over‐represented in part‐time employment, and that the growth in part‐time work has been an important feature of the feminisation of the labour force. In contrast to many studies of part‐time work in other countries, however, we find evidence of a significant wage premium to female part‐time employment. The premium is also robust to fixed effects estimations using Labour Force Survey panel data from 2001 to 2004, where controlling for unobservable differences increases its size. The premium persists with different hourly thresholds defining part‐time employment and when we account for possible reporting errors in hours worked.     

WHO DEVELOPS INNOVATIONS IN MEDICINE FOR THE POOR? TRENDS IN PATENT APPLICATIONS RELATED TO MEDICINES FOR HIV/AIDS,TUBERCULOSIS, MALARIA,AND NEGLECTED DISEASES

This paper analyzes patent data of medicines and vaccines for diseases spreading in low‐income countries. The data were retrieved from a database of the Japan Patent Office. Who invents medicines for the poor of the world? This is the main question that the paper addresses. Results indicate that not only public institutions but also private firms have played an important role in developing innovations for fighting both global diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, and so‐called neglected diseases including malaria, which seem to spread almost exclusively in low‐income countries. Moreover, the basic mechanism of innovation is similar between the development of medicines for HIV/AIDS and those for neglected diseases. Finally, among firms, infectious disease fighting innovations are quite diverse. R&D stock and economies of scope are used to explain frequent patent applications by a high‐performing pharmaceutical firm.     

AN INDUSTRIOUS REVOLUTION IN AN EAST ASIAN MARKET ECONOMY? TOKUGAWA JAPAN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GREAT DIVERGENCE

This paper addresses a question raised by Jan de Vries' on the relationship between industriousness and the rise of the market in East Asia. Was the growing industriousness in Tokugawa Japan, as de Vries suggests, a substitute ‘for the absence of markets’? The examination refers to two versions of Chayanov's peasant farm model and their empirical relevance to the Tokugawa agrarian history, with special reference to the formation of labour‐intensive peasant farming (Akira Hayami's version of an industrious revolution), product specialisation, and the markets for production factors, land, and labour. Its implications for the Great Divergence debate are also discussed.     

THE EMPLOYER SIZE-WAGE EFFECT: CAN DYNAMIC MONOPSONY PROVIDE AN EXPLANATION?

In this paper we argue that a dynamic monopsony model (basedon labour market frictions) predicts a positive relationshipbetween wages and employer size, but also that the effect willbe larger in the non-union sector than in the union sector,and larger for women than for men. We examine evidence on theemployer size-wage effect using several microeconomic data sources,and find it to be generally consistent with these predictions.After examining other theoretical explanations, our conclusionis that at least part of the employer size-wage effect is aresult of monopsony power in the labour market.     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.     

IS EAST ASIA FIT FOR AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA? AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF A HIGHER DEGREE OF MONETARY COOPERATION IN EAST ASIA

This paper attempts to make a contribution to the recent search for a suitable assessment of the economic feasibility of a higher degree of monetary cooperation in East Asia. By using a structural vector autoregression approach as well as a generalized purchasing power parity approach, we find that a larger group of appropriately selected East Asian economies does satisfy the macroeconomic conditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The East Asian group consists of four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and four Northeast Asian economies (Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan). This finding presents a striking contrast to the existing research results whose policy recommendation has generally been that countries in East Asia should start with a smaller subgroup currency area. It is time that many East Asian economies as a region made a serious effort to pursue a higher degree of monetary cooperation among themselves for forming an OCA.     

WHY IS THE TAKE-UP OF MICROINSURANCE SO LOW? EVIDENCE FROM A HEALTH INSURANCE SCHEME IN INDIA

Insurance for the poor, called microinsurance, has recently drawn the attention of practitioners in developing countries. There are common problems among the various schemes: (1) low take-up rates, (2) high claim rates, and (3) low renewal rates. In the present paper, we investigate take-up decisions using household data collected in Karnataka, India, focusing on prospect theory, hyperbolic preference, and adverse selection. Prospect theory presumes that people behave in a risk-averse way when evaluating gains but in a risk-loving way when evaluating losses. Because insurance covers losses, the risk-loving attitude toward losses might explain the low take-up rates, and we find weak empirical support for this. Households with hyperbolic preference were more likely to purchase insurance, consistent with our theoretical prediction of demand for commitment. We also find some evidence on the existence of adverse selection: households with a higher ratio of sick members were more likely to purchase insurance.     

HONG KONG'S INFLATION AND DEFLATION UNDER THE US DOLLAR PEG: THE BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT OR EXPORT PRICE SHOCKS?

Hong Kong's US dollar peg, adopted in 1983, has failed to deliver price stability. Hong Kong experienced high inflation before the Asian financial crisis and prolonged deflation after it. The annual rate of inflation (GDP-deflator based) was 7.4% in the first period (1985–97) and −2.0% in the second (1998–2007). There was no clear trend for the inflation rate to converge to the US level. The nominal anchor via a fixed exchange rate in Hong Kong had an upward and downward drift in the order of 4% from the US inflation rate, casting doubt on the anchor's efficacy. Despite Hong Kong's high output growth relative to that of the United States, the Balassa-Samuelson effect was not the main factor behind the pre-Asian crisis inflation. Price shocks in service exports played a major role in Hong Kong's general prices through the two periods.     

IS A GOVERNMENTAL MICRO‐CREDIT PROGRAM FOR THE POOR REALLY PRO‐POOR? EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

It is argued that without collateral the poor often face binding borrowing constraints in the formal credit market. This justifies a micro‐credit program, which is operated by the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies to provide the poor with preferential credit. The present paper examines poverty targeting and the impact of the micro‐credit program. It is found that the program is not very pro‐poor in terms of targeting. The nonpoor account for a larger proportion of the participants. The nonpoor also tend to receive larger amounts of credit compared to the poor. However, the program has reduced the poverty rate of the participants. The positive impact is found for all three Foster‐Greer‐Thorbecke poverty measures.     

EXCHANGE RATE PASS‐THROUGH TO IMPORT PRICES IN SOUTH AFRICA: IS THERE ASYMMETRY?1

This paper examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) to import prices in South Africa. It further explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass‐through effects on import prices, i.e. whether the exchange rate pass‐through is symmetric or asymmetric. The findings of the study suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation, which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also evidence to suggest that pass‐through is slightly higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate in harmony with the menu cost theory when the invoices are denominated in the exporters' currency.     

WILL THE MARKET KEEP BRAZIL LIT UP? OWNERSHIP AND MARKET STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

After achieving significant success until the 1970s, the Brazilian electric power sector stalled due to financial problems. The government promoted a shift toward a private ownership model and tried to entrust the market with creating a stable and efficient energy supply. However, the energy crisis highlighted the difficulties in this transition. This paper points out that the uncertainty inherent in the market‐based model increased information rent for the private companies and complicated the post‐privatization expansion scenario. Privatization driven by macroeconomic problems should be carefully reexamined, especially for public utilities with strong natural monopoly characteristics, since markets tend to fail to supply the socially optimal supply, thus directly affecting people's lives.