Can industry regulators learn collusion structures from information-efficient asset markets?

This note combines a dynamic industrial organization model, in which an industry is subject to exogenous processes of market-size and collusion structure, with a consumption-based asset pricing model for the shares in the industry’s firms. Three main findings emerge for our model under the assumption of information-efficient asset markets. First, the volatility of a firm’s share price is exclusively driven by the volatility of the industry’s market-size. Second, the volatility of a firm’s price-dividend ratio is exclusively driven by the volatility of the industry’s collusion structure whereby high (resp. low) ratios indicate less (resp. more) collusion. Third, for non-volatile collusion structures the price-dividend ratio is constant across different collusion structures.     

Welfare effects of competitive lobbying efforts in international oligopoly markets

Conventionally, rent-seeking activities have been considered to deteriorate social welfare and to distort resource allocation. This paper examines whether rent-seeking behavior can improve social welfare by focusing on the welfare effects of firms’ competitive lobbying efforts when governments can impose market entry regulation against foreign firms. We demonstrate that competitive lobbying efforts can improve social welfare when such lobbying efforts are directed to reduce market entry barriers. In addition, social welfare can be maximized when the government shows the maximum sensitivity to the foreign firm's political contributions while maintaining competitive market structure. Moreover, it is shown that the dominant strategy for a domestic firm is to allocate more resources to R&D sectors while it is optimal for foreign firms is to exert more efforts in lobbying to reduce the market entry barriers when a government makes political economic approach in market entry regulations.     

GARCH with omitted persistent covariate

This paper analyzes the effect of omitting a persistent covariate in the GARCH-X model. In particular, we show that if the relevant persistent covariate is omitted and the usual GARCH(1,1) model is fitted, the model will be estimated approximately as an IGARCH model. This may well explain the ubiquitous evidence of the IGARCH in empirical volatility analysis.     

Pricing to Market of German Exporters: Evidence from Panel Data

This paper investigates pricediscrimination of German exporters across differentforeign markets. We examine the degree of pass-throughof exchange rate fluctuations in the pricing of 70export items. The model is estimated using panel dataon export unit values. Parameter estimation relies onGMM first difference, fixed effects, LAD, OLS firstdifference, and the random coefficients model. Themain results for 70 manufactured goods and 15destination countries between 1990–1994 are: Thedegree of pricing to market differs among destinationsand products. Highest pricing to market is observedfor U.S., Japan, Italy and Spain. Pricing to market ismore prevalent in exports of chemicals and fertilisersthan in machinery products.     

On the Endogeneity of the Mean-Variance Efficient Frontier

The endogeneity of the efficient frontier in the mean-variance model of portfolio selection is commonly obscured in the portfolio selection literature and in widely used textbooks. The authors demonstrate this endogeneity and discuss the impact of parameter changes on the mean-variance efficient frontier and on the beta coefficients of individual assets.     

Models of trust-sharing in Chinese private enterprises

This paper presents two related models of development patterns of Chinese private enterprises. They illustrate incentive-based reasons for ownership arrangements of private enterprises, and highlight how institutional foundations of trust, particularly government and family-based cultural values, play an important role in influencing the development of private enterprises. These models attempt to explain why government and family-based culture are crucial for the ownership structure and management of private enterprises. The main argument in the models is that the structure of family businesses can be viewed, in essence, as a form of trust-sharing (Guanxi-sharing) arrangement within the firm. Furthermore, the increase in the prevalence of family businesses can be seen as a result of family trust replacing government trust in the firm's economic activities.     

纽约黄金期货价格波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对纽约黄金期货价格波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。     

Estimates of China capital input index by industries (1981–2000)

The purpose of this paper is to report estimates of capital input index classified by industries in China from 1981 to 2000. We estimate capital stock based on the perpetual inventory method, and then estimate the flow of capital service and capital service price consistently with the capital compensation in input-output table. In our study, we discuss various assumptions and adjustments made on the data and estimation implementation.      

Is dynamic general equilibrium a theory of everything?

Should we interpret the contributions of Edward C. Prescott and his collaborators, especially Finn Kydland and Rajnish Mehra, to dynamic general equilibrium as just a mathematical restatement of pre-Keynesian business cycle theory in the language of Arrow and Debreu? This essay advances the contrary view that Prescott has been laying the foundations for a theory of everything in macroeconomics that will stretch well beyond the frictionless environments treated in its early version. A theory of everything is an attempt to explain key empirical observations in nearly every subfield of macroeconomics from a simple, logically coherent conceptual platform with a minimum of institutional detail. After reviewing the current state of Prescott’s agenda, we examine several examples of dynamic equilibrium in economies with constant returns to scale, complete markets, idiosyncratic productivity shocks, and limited capital mobility. These examples suggest that the Solow residual controls the entire path of aggregate output if redefined more broadly to include financial, distributional and institutional variables; that the discount factor used in pricing streams of income will shift autonomously over time in response to endogenous changes in the set of unconstrained asset traders; and that a dynamic general equilibrium model with substantive frictions in financial markets goes some distance towards a joint account of well-known empirical anomalies in growth, business cycles, and asset returns.     

On the impact of leverage constraints on asset prices and trading volume

Abstract. Researchers have used stylized facts on asset prices and trading volume in stock markets (in particular, the mean reversion of asset returns and the correlations between trading volume, price changes and price levels) to support theories where agents are not rational expected utility maximizers. This paper shows that this empirical evidence is in fact consistent with a standard infinite horizon – perfect information – expected utility economy where some agents face leverage constraints similar to those found in todays financial markets. In addition, and in sharp contrast to the theories above, we explain some qualitative differences that are observed in the price-volume relation on stock and on futures markets. We consider a continuous-time economy where agents maximize the integral of their discounted utility from consumption under both budget and leverage constraints. Building on the work by Vila and Zariphopoulou (1997), we find a closed form solution, up to a negative constant, for the equilibrium prices and demands in the region of the state space where the constraint is non-binding. We show that, at the equilibrium, stock holdings volatility as well as its ratio to stock price volatility are increasing functions of the stock price and interpret this finding in terms of the price-volume relation. We would like to thank the editor and two anonimous referees for valuable substantive comments. Our gratitude also to Franklin Allen, Kerry Back, Domenico Cuoco, Xavier Freixas, Sanford Grossman, Michel Habib, Lutz Hendricks, Richard Kihlstrom, Fernando Restoy, Mary Thomson, Jean-Luc Vila, participants to seminars at Birkbeck College, Carnegie-Mellon, Columbia, ESSEC, HEC, IAE, INSEAD, London Business School, London School of Economics, McGill, Michigan, National University of Singapore, Pompeu Fabra, North Carolina, Washington-St-Louis, Wharton, the Jornadas de Economía Financiera BBV, and the Meetings of the Society for Economic Dynamics and Control and the American Finance Association. Special thanks are due to Süleyman Basak for his enthusiastic support and many helpful suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the BBV and Caja de Madrid Foundations and CREF (both authors) and of the Spanish Ministry of Education under DGICYT grant no. PB93-0388 (first author).     

燃煤电厂脱硝电价研究——基于经营期电价与模拟退火算法

本文在经营期电价方法计算脱硝电价的基础上,为了简化该法复杂的计算过程,提出运用模拟退火算法思想对脱硝电价的计算进行优化,并建立了基于经营期电价与模拟退火算法的脱硝电价计算模型,最后,以新建电厂国华太电四期(2×600MW)烟气脱硝工程为例,验证了模型的合理性。     

人民币汇率变动对价格传递效应的差异研究

本文主要研究汇率波动对中国三十多个省市物价水平的影响,并分析了可能影响物价水平的诸多因素。从中国样本省市价格水平方面,运用计量经济学模型对人民币汇率波动对中国价格水平的影响差异进行了实证分析,验证了人民币汇率传递的程度与经济开放度有关,并得出了应关注汇率传递差异、积极应对物价变化的结论。     

中国A股市场个股收益影响因素的实证分析

选取公司市值、账面市值比、净营运资产、市净率和管理费用作为解释变量来构建面板数据模型,利用2007—2011年我国A股市场中573家上市公司的面板数据进行回归分析,探析这些财务指标对中国A股市场的股票月收益率的解释力度。研究结果显示:上述解释变量对股票月度收益率具有显著影响,说明这些财务指标对股票收益的解释力度较强;公司市值和账面市值比与股票收益率正相关,在研究期间存在明显的账面市值比效应;净营运资产、市净率和管理费用与股票收益率负相关;中国股票市场是一个弱式有效市场。