Surplus people and expendable children: The structure of apartheid and the mortality crisis in South Africa

South Africa’s apartheid scheme is considered as a paradigm case for the creation and maltreatment of a putatively surplus population. Both active and passive policies are identified that are utilized to contain the numbers of the black population of the nation. Of particular significance is a strategy of neglect that has led to exceptionally high infant and child mortality rates in the “homelands.” In addition, the South African authorities’ efforts to destabilize neighboring regimes in Angola and Mozambique has had similarly adverse repercussions on mortality rates there.     

The Localized Geography of Foreign Aid: A New Dataset and Application to Violent Armed Conflict

Existing foreign aid databases – the OECD’s CRS data and now AidData – are project-based. And yet nearly all empirical analyses using these data aggregate to the country-year level, thereby losing project-specific information. In this paper, we introduce new data on the geographic location of aid projects that have been committed to many African countries between 1989 and 2008. The data enable an examination of project-level information in a wider variety of systematic research contexts. To demonstrate the utility of the new data, we discuss how geographically disaggregated foreign aid and armed conflict data are needed to capture the theoretical mechanisms in the aid-conflict literature. We then map the disaggregated aid and conflict data in Sierra Leone, Angola, and Mozambique as specific examples of how these data could help disentangle competing causal mechanisms linking aid to conflict onset and dynamics. The research provides an important new perspective on the connections between aid and conflict. More generally, it is a crucial first step in geo-referencing and comparing foreign aid projects to various localized development outcomes.     

Modelling Monetary Union in Southern Africa: Welfare Evaluation for the CMA and SADC

This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader groupings among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii) joining the CMA individually is beneficial for all SADC members except Angola, Mauritius and Tanzania; (iii) creating a symmetric CMA‐wide monetary union with a regional central bank carries some costs in terms of foregone anti‐inflationary credibility; and (iv) SADC‐wide symmetric monetary union continues to be beneficial for all except Mauritius, although the gains for existing CMA members are likely to be limited.     

OPPORTUNITIES AND COSTS OF PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION IN SADC'S SMALLEST EQUITY MARKETS

This paper contrasts the performance of three time series models, a simple stochastic drift, GARCH, and a time varying parameter CAPM for three of SADC's smallest equity markets: Namibia, Swaziland and Mozambique. Analysis of the portfolio characteristics for each reveals the level of integration with South Africa using optimised portfolio frontiers. In addition, the implications of adopting a minimum investment retention levy by the smaller states is examined. Namibia is found to exhibit the greatest degree of integration with South Africa, followed to a much lesser extent by Swaziland with Mozambique. The evidence suggests that investors in the smaller markets would face considerable additional costs should such a policy be adopted.     

Measuring Persistence in Inflation: Evidence For angola

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in five inflation indicators for Angola, and to identify the implications for decision making. Our results suggest that when structural breaks are accounted for, all five inflation indicators are stationary. Second, our findings suggest that persistence is not too high. Moreover, the degree of persistence is similar among the five inflation indicators and throughout the sample period. Finally, our results also show that extracting the most volatile components of the headline inflation indicator does not generate a new inflation indicator that is less volatile and more persistent than the original. These results have important policy implications as the National Bank of Angola is preparing to change its monetary policy focus to a more inflation‐targeting regime.     

Migration and development in Mozambique: poverty,inequality and survival

Migration is many Mozambicans' preferred employment option (and sometimes last resort). Rural southern Mozambique, short of resources and traditionally less productive agriculturally than other regions of Mozambique, is now more developed and better off than other rural areas. An inter-regional analysis of the South, Centre and North of Mozambique demonstrates developmental differences largely attributable to labour migration (mainly to South Africa) and remittances. However, although migrant worker households, usually deficit agricultural producers largely dependent on migrant remittances, are often better off than non-migrant ones, many are still vulnerable to poverty. Migration has changed significantly over the last 15 years, with the eclipsing of mine migration and the increasing scarcity of jobs available to young Mozambicans. Despite the overall positive economic impact of migrant labour in southern Mozambique, as remittances decrease because earnings are lower and mechanisms for transfer are limited, its benefit may diminish.     

The counting approach to multidimensional poverty. The case of four African countries

This paper investigates the levels and evolution of poverty in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe using the decomposability properties of poverty measures based on a counting approach. We compare poverty measures such as the Alkire and Foster index with alternative poverty indices that are sensitive to inequality. Poverty is estimated using Demographic and Health Surveys for different years for Malawi (2004, 2010 and 2015), for Mozambique (2003 and 2011), Tanzania (2004, 2010 and 2015) and for Zimbabwe (2005, 2010 and 2015). Our findings show that one obtains insightful information when looking at the breadth and inequality components of multidimensional poverty.     

The Political Economy of Public Expenditures in Agriculture: Applications of Concepts to Mozambique

This paper undertakes an investigation of agricultural public investments in Mozambique, drawing on insights from qualitative field interviews conducted in Mozambique, secondary data analysis and examination of the existing empirical literature, and by situating these insights within a political economy conceptual framework. We explore the driving factors behind the amount and allocation of public funds to agriculture, and behind the differential attention that various types of public investments receive in the process of making decisions on resource allocation. Agricultural public investments are more likely to be made that have two key features: higher attributability to politicians and donors of the output of public spending, and a shorter lag time between expenditures incurred and outputs produced. Evidence on geographical targeting of agricultural public funds corresponds more closely with theories suggesting that resources are used to sway communities opposed to the ruling party, rather than to reward political supporters. Examination of the effect of actors' and organisations' incentives and constraints on resource allocation in agriculture points to the importance of not treating “government,” “the ruling party” and other institutions as monolithic bodies; the paper instead highlights how differentiated interests within seemingly coherent institutions drive what gets public expenditure attention in the agricultural sector.     

Diverse family forms and quality-of-life in sub-Saharan African countries

ABSTRACT

Family is the foundation on which other institutions are built. Its quality has resultant effects on the quality of the society in its entirety. It is, therefore, expedient to examine the relationship between diverse family forms and quality-of-life in sub-Saharan African countries. Demographic and Health Surveys for four countries were used for the study. The study reveals a significant relationship between cohabitation, marriage and wealth status in all the four countries, while marriage remains significantly related with education in all the countries except Kenya. Poisson regression revealed a higher effect of education on diverse family forms except single parents in Mozambique and Nigeria, while with the adjusted data divorce/separated women in Kenya have a significantly higher coefficient (β?=??1.03, p-value = 0.000) compared with other countries in the study area The study concludes that family formation cannot be overlooked, as it relates to the wellbeing of women in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in Mozambique

ABSTRACT

Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed the implementation of blending mandates by 2020. South Africa is one of these countries. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we estimate the impacts of expanding biofuel production in Mozambique under both commercial and smallholder-type farming models, including and excluding bagasse cogeneration.     

Comparing Exchange Market Pressure across Five African Countries

This paper compares the credibility of exchange rate arrangements for the five African countries which are members of the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries and will be referred to as Afro-Luso. Our working hypothesis is that credibility necessarily implies low mean exchange market pressure (EMP), low EMP conditional volatility and low-severity EMP crises under financial-market integration. In addition, economic fundamentals must account for EMP dynamics. We also seek evidence of a risk–return relationship for mean EMP and of “bad news” (negative shocks) having a greater impact on EMP volatility than “good news” (positive shocks). Using our econometric models, we are able to rank Afro-Luso countries’ conditional volatility in ordinal terms. Our main conclusion is that countries with currency pegs, such as Guinea-Bissau (GB) and Cape Verde (CV), clearly have lower volatility when compared to those with managed floats and are therefore more credible. Moreover, EMP crises episodes under pegs are much less severe. We find that economic fundamentals correctly account for mean EMP in all countries and that the risk–return relationship is much more favourable for investors under currency pegs, as the increase in volatility is lower for the same rate of return. The exception to this finding is Mozambique (MOZ), which apparently has a risk–return profile akin to that enjoyed by countries with pegs. A plausible reason is that MOZ has the only managed float in our sample implementing monetary and exchange rate policy within the confines of an IMF framework, which establishes floors for international reserves and ceilings for the central bank’s net domestic assets. This intuition needs to be tested, however. EMP conditional volatility, meanwhile, is generally driven by changes in domestic credit (lowers it) and foreign reserve changes (raises it). The first effect is more pronounced under currency pegs, but also under MOZ’s managed float. “Bad news” increases volatility more that “good news” only in the case of CV’s currency peg, which we take to be another sign of its credibility. A few striking cross-country comparisons also emerge in our analysis. Among countries with managed floats, Angola (ANG) has the most severe EMP crises, MOZ the least severe and São Tomé &; Príncipe (STP) lies between the two extremes but closer to MOZ.     

Policy and trade issues for a future regional biofuels market in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the domestic political and legislative context surround biofuels initiatives to highlight what opportunities exist for establishing a biofuels trade network between South Africa (as an anchor market) and its neighbours, specifically in Zambia and Mozambique. By analysing global developments in major biofuel importers, reasons for policy inertia in South Africa, and recent experiences with biofuels investments, we suggest that the likelihood for a regional biofuels market developing is slender without addressing land-related challenges in producer countries and revising South Africa’s domestic legislation.     

Development vectors of railway transport

The article is devoted to analyzing the functioning of the sector under the conditions a decline in economic activities, the possibilities of the formation of service products on the market of transport services, problems of the cooperation of railways with seaports, and peculiarities of their operation in the range outbound directions of the network, as well as development prospects of the railway transport in the economic and geopolitical processes in the country and world.     

Sugar market in Russia: Retrospective analysis and development trends

The article is devoted to analyzing the functioning of the sector under the conditions a decline in economic activities, the possibilities of the formation of service products on the market of transport services, problems of the cooperation of railways with seaports, and peculiarities of their operation in the range outbound directions of the network, as well as development prospects of the railway transport in the economic and geopolitical processes in the country and world.     

Introduction to Special Issue on: ‘Inequalities in the Least Developed Countries – Some Lessons from Africa’

This special issue comprises six papers analysing different dimensions of inequalities in African countries. Three papers deal with the trend in inequality in consumption in Mozambique, with multidimensional poverty in four sub‐Saharan countries, and with the relationship between living conditions and subjective well‐being in African countries. The other three are focused on gender issues and are focused on Mozambique, dealing with gender inequalities in the access to contract farming arrangements as well as to employment out of subsistence agriculture, or with the effect of women’s empowerment on children’s health. This introduction provides a short overview of how they contribute to a better understanding of inequalities in low‐income countries.     

Revitalising and modernising smallholder agriculture: The Aldeia Nova Project in Angola

The Aldeia Nova Project in Angola is aimed at demobilising ex-combatants to rural areas and settling them in modern agricultural communities. The first settlers arrived in the Waku-Kungu Valley in 2005 and now 600 families are using modern agricultural technology to produce milk, eggs and vegetables, which are marketed in the urban centres. The Project has enhanced the families' livelihoods and provided employment to hundreds of other Angolans, and the entire region has been revitalised, with a large number of new families arriving to enjoy the benefits of the improved local economy. This paper presents the concept of the Project, describes its evolution and discusses its strengths and weaknesses. It concludes that the Project has had benefits beyond its measureable economic impact and that Aldeia Nova's original and ambitious goals are not beyond the reach of the Angolan people.     

河北省沿海地域城市化的过程、类型与主导模式

城市化是河北省沿海经济隆起带建设的重要内容。以具有后发特征的河北省城市化状态为素材,揭示了在新兴港口基础上推进沿海地域城市化的一般过程,并提出河北省沿海地域城市化的三种主导模式。     

International trade and net investment: theory and evidence

The theory of welfare accounting shows that comprehensive measures of net investment can be used to test whether an economy is following unsustainable paths of consumption. However, the notion of net investment used in most applied studies rules out technological progress and terms-of-trade gains from international trade. This paper considers an augmented expression of net investment derived from a dynamic growth model featuring international trade in different types of resource inputs, exogenous productivity growth in final sectors, and cost-reducing progress in resource extraction. Calculating augmented net investment for the world’s top twenty oil producers, we show that the difference with standard non-augmented measures can be large and may even revert some established conclusions regarding sustainability: prospects are more favorable than previously thought in oil-exporting countries endowed with large reserves like Angola, Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In oil-importing economies, future consumption possibilities are limited by the lack of expected rental incomes from future resource exports.     

Literacy Practices and Schooling: A Case Study from Mozambique

A novel approach to the assessment of literacy is used to tackle the issue of effectiveness of years of schooling. The dichotomy inherent in the literacy rate is rejected in favor of a “practice-based” approach, which considers literacy as a multifaceted phenomenon as advocated in anthropological and economic research. Primary data collected in the poorest region in Mozambique suggest that years of schooling have a differentiated impact on acquired literacy practices of adults. Results that are robust to different specifications are reported.     

Women’s Empowerment and Child Malnutrition: The Case of Mozambique

Using data from the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey in Mozambique this paper checks whether women empowerment has an impact on the nutritional status of children. We evaluate the degree of empowerment of women via multidimensional approaches, making a distinction between five domains: decision making, use of violence by husband/partner, attitude of the woman towards this use of violence, available information, material resources. Each domain includes several questions reflecting different aspects of empowerment. For each domain of empowerment, three different methods of aggregation are used: correspondence analysis, the so‐called Alkire and Foster methodology and the “fuzzy sets” approach. The impact of women empowerment on the nutritional status of children is analyzed via the MIMIC approach. No clear‐cut conclusion concerning the possible impact of women’s empowerment on the nutritional status of children could be drawn. But, ceteris paribus, the material wealth of the household, the educational level of the mother and her BMI are positively correlated with the nutritional status of children which is also higher when the child is female. Finally, there are important differences in the nutritional status of children between the various regions of Mozambique and this nutritional status is in most regions lower in rural areas.