THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A HETEROGENEOUS PANEL

This paper investigates the impact of government expenditure on growth, in a heterogeneous panel, for a sample of developing countries. Using generalized method of moments techniques, we show that countries with substantial government current expenditure have strong growth effects, which vary considerably across the nations.     

CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON OUTPUT GROWTH VOLATILITY: NONSTATIONARY VARIANCE AND GARCH MODELS

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates for Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the six countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm to detect structural change in the variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the six countries after identifying outliers and mean shifts in the growth rates. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications, modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada and Japan, and disappears entirely in Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the six countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary variance. Moreover, we also consider the possible effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth as well as the reverse effect of output growth on its volatility. The conditional standard deviation possesses no statistical significance in all countries, except a significant negative effect in Japan. The lagged growth rate of output produces significant negative and positive effects on the conditional variances in Germany and Japan, respectively. No significant effects exist in Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States.     

湖南省财政收入与区域经济增长的实证研究

财政收入与区域经济增长之间存在着相互促进、相互制约的关系.近年来湖南省经济增长与财政收人出现迅速增长的势头,但在全国而言优势并不明显.文章用计量模型分析了湖南财政收入与区域经济增长之间的关系,并提出若干优化财政收入的政策建议.     

经济增长与环境质量:来自中国省际面板数据的证据

环境库兹涅茨曲线是经济增长与环境污染之间呈倒U型关系的曲线,即随着经济增长,环境质量先恶化,当经济发展到一定程度,环境质量又会逐渐改善。文章基于中国1991—2003年29个省级区域环境质量与人均GDP的数据,利用工业废水、废气、固体排放物等变量与人均GDP拟合方程验证环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。研究结果验证了环境库兹涅茨假说,人口密度和外商直接投资对不同的污染物有不同的影响,而工业发展对这三种污染物排放的影响比较大,因此加强产业结构的调整将有助于改善环境质量。     

外贸对经济增长的影响分析:理论与经验模型验证

国际贸易理论的核心问题是探究贸易利益的产生及其分配,国际贸易与经济增长具有密切联系。理论分析和经验证据均表明,一国外贸规模对经济增长有着重要作用,对外贸易的变动往往成为决定一国经济增长趋势的关键因素。文章从理论和经验模型上对我国近10多年来外贸和经济增长的关系给出了相关的实证检验,旨在探讨并揭示国际贸易促进经济增长的内在机制。     

SELF‐CONTROL PROBLEMS AND CONSUMPTION‐SAVING DECISIONS: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE*

Time‐discounting is a fundamental preference which affects wealth accumulation. If people are impatient, they may spend their earnings instantaneously, and do not save enough for the future. People are often time‐inconsistent, i.e., they often put exceptionally high value on immediate consumption compared to any time in the future. Whether they are aware or not, these individuals are susceptible to self‐control problems. In this paper, we review theoretical and empirical research on time‐inconsistency and self‐control problems, particularly on consumption and saving, and discuss their policy implications.     

长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

采用协整检验和因果检验对长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。检验结果表明长株潭地区的贷款增长率与中介效率增长率对经济增长具有正向促进作用,但是中介效率增长率对经济增长的促进作用不显著;贷款增长率与经济增长率之间具有双向因果关系。在实证研究的基础上,提出了相关的结论和建议。     

标准对湖南省经济增长影响的实证研究

将标准存量作为研究湖南经济增长的重要因素之一,运用扩展的生产函数模型,得出1985—2007年期间各要素的贡献率。实证结果表明,标准在促进湖南省经济增长过程中发挥着十分重要的作用,对经济增长有着很高的贡献率,仅次于资本存量的贡献率,高于专利和劳动力投入对经济增长的贡献。因此,要大力加强湖南省标准化体系建设。     

THE MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION FOR THE EURO AREA: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper sets out to re‐examine the money demand function for the euro area. Traditional specifications often yield unsatisfactory results: instability of short and long‐term coefficients; relatively large differences between estimated and actual value of variables; and significant changes in the number of long‐term relationships, etc. Using a standard Vector Error Correction Model, we find that the usual specification is indeed unstable. However, introducing a European equity price gives rise to a more stable system. Furthermore, recursive estimates confirm the relative stability of long‐term coefficients. Estimates of the real money gap, based on the money demand equation including equity prices, point to moderate, albeit persistent, excess liquidity in the euro area in recent years. The real money gap contains information about future inflation but this content may have diminished since 2001.     

The French Communication Industry Defined and Analyzed through the Social Fabric Matrix,the Filiere Approach,and Network Analysis

This paper examines the relative impact of economic freedom, civil liberties, and political rights on growth. A system of three simultaneous equations is used to unearth the channels through which these institutional dimensions affect economic growth. These include greater efficiency and enlarged investment in physical and human capital. The sample contains 79 countries and six periods covering the years from 1976 to 2005. The results show that the three dimensions of institutional quality are important for economic growth either through a better allocation of resources or, indirectly, through the stimulation of investment in physical and human capital.     

台湾地区要素投入对经济增长的作用

经济增长是由资本、劳动力、技术等多种要素共同推动的,各要素投入的数量、质量和效率决定了产出的增长。文章以经济增长相关理论为基础,通过合理选取和度量有关变量数据,构建台湾地区经济增长模型,并对模型进行计量检验和要素分析,从而揭示台湾地区要素投入与经济增长的关系,以及各要素在经济增长中的作用。     

区域物流系统与经济增长的动态耦合机理与实证仿真

采用系统动力学的方法对区域物流系统与区域经济增长之间的动态关联关系及耦合结构进行模型设计和仿真实证,分析了其三大作用子系统及多重嵌套反馈回路,结合天津滨海新区案例,模拟了自适应、物流系统适度超前和其它产业优先三种发展模式下的协同演化路径。结果表明二者存在自适应调节机制,物流适度超前短期内会略微减缓区域经济增速,但长期则能使区域经济增速显著提升。     

区域增长格局和地区差距的实证分析——以陕西省为例

通过重心模型以及泰勒系数对陕西省1989--2006年区域增长格局与地区差距进行了实证分析.结果表明,国家西部大开发战略实施以后陕北地区增速明显加快,区域增长重心持续向东北转移.三大地区间差距持续不断扩大,而各地带内部地区经济差距在1995年之后呈现不同的特征,地带内的差距一直是影响陕西区域差距的主要力量.     

DISCRIMINATING SHORT AND LONG MEMORY IN FINITE SAMPLES USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO GROWTH CONVERGENCE

The standard linear model where u_t is generated from an ARFIMA process, is considered. The sensitivity of the predictor and sensitivity of variance estimates of the linear model to long memory are investigated by constructing the statistical measures B_L/S and D_L/S , respectively. B_L/S and D_L/S is interpreted as a sensitivity measure for the long‐memory process without the short‐memory effects. As an application, the memory characteristics of per capita GDP of 30 countries are investigated from the Maddison GDP dataset. It is found that per‐capita GDP exhibits long memory characteristics, and the long‐run growth estimates are sensitive to the long memory characteristics.     

SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS REGULATIONS AND DYNAMIC LABOUR DEMAND: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

We present a dynamic labour demand model where we evaluate the impact of employment regulations on permanent and temporary employment. We consider three different kinds of regulations, namely firing costs, hiring costs and a constraint on temporary contracts. These regulations differently affect the size and composition of employment. The theoretical results are interpreted and questioned on the basis of empirical evidence on the employment effects of the regulation reforms that occurred in the major European countries in the period 1983–1999. The empirical analysis is based on a new set of time‐varying indicators on permanent employment protection, fixed‐term contracts and temporary agency work regulations. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that fixed‐term contracts have been effective stepping‐stones to permanent jobs during the period under observation. On the contrary, flexible temporary agency work regulations seem to induce a substitution of permanent with temporary contracts.     

THE IMPACT OF ANTI‐TERRORISM EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFARE

This paper examines the effects of increasing anti‐terrorism expenditure on economic growth rate and social welfare. It is shown that: (i) spending the least amount possible on anti‐terrorism expenditure will lead to a maximum economic growth rate; and (ii) to achieve maximum social welfare, the government should allocate its budget to anti‐terrorism expenditure. The results shed light on why the US government has chosen to uphold and pursue its anti‐terrorism policies in recent years to present day.     

Contract-Intensive Money: Contract Enforcement, Property Rights, and Economic Performance

We introduce a new, easily accessed and objective measure of the enforceability of contracts and the security of property rights. This measure, called contract-intensive money or CIM, is based on citizens decisions regarding the form in which they choose to hold their financial assets. Country case studies show that CIM varies over time in response to political events in ways predicted by our arguments. We also show that CIM is positively related to investment and growth rates, and to the relative size of contract-dependent sectors of the economy.     

INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL TEST SCORES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Hanushek and Kimko's analysis of the relationship between growth and schooling quality, as measured by scores in international tests, suffers from potential endogeneity as schooling quality is not always measured at a date strictly prior to the observed growth. To address this problem we treat the data as a panel, relating growth only to test scores at earlier dates. The estimates of the effect of schooling quality on growth are similar to those obtained from cross‐section regressions.