A household production approach to the evaluation of transportation system change

This paper intends to present a model for evaluating nationwide and interregional transportation system change from the viewpoint of the user's welfare. The model stems primarily from an adaptation of the household production approach, and thereby represents a departure from traditional methods of evaluation. In the development of our model, the transportation system changes are regarded as technical changes in the trip production function. With proper assumptions regarding the specified utility and trip production functions, it is possible to empirically evaluate the transportation system change and to measure the technical change in trip production function.     

An empirical comparison of the Tucker-Messick and INDSCAL models: Measuring viewpoints about transit attributes

This investigation sought (1) to identify perceptually homogenous respondent groups by two individual differences scaling models initially proposed by Tucker and Messick, and Carroll and Chang, (2) to reveal the significance of group percepts with respect to anticipated satisfactions and socio-economic and activity pattern characteristics of group members, and (3) to test empirically the significance of formal distinctions between the two individual differences models. The study utilized judgments about 12 transit attributes of three innovative urban, public transportation modes from a sample of 243 respondents. It was possible to specify seven perceptually homogenous groups, which were distinct in terms of a qualitative analysis of their perceptual spaces and a quantitative convergent-discriminant validity analysis predicated on the distances between pairs of attributes in their spaces. The perceptual groups were shown to have interpretable links to socio-economic and activity pattern characteristics of the respondents. In addition, it was possible to statistically account for the satisfaction ratings of the respondents by the dimensions of their corresponding spaces. Since the Tucker-Messick model was shown to derive more distinct spaces for the separate groups than the INDSCAL model of Carroll and Chang, the Tucker-Messick spaces more uniquely tied a group's percepts to its corresponding satisfactions.     

Utilization and productivity of the Duke physician's associate

The objectives of this study were as follows: (1) Formulate a theoretical model of the typical medical practice as a system for producing medical care, with particular attention to the role of middle-level health workers such as graduates of Duke University's Physician's Associate Program. (2) Develop a methodology for collecting data necessary to estimate the relevant parameters in the model, and to describe current patterns of utilization of Duke PA's. (3) Draw substantive conclusions, insofar as the model and data collection methodology permit, about the actual and potential productivity of Duke PA's.As of October 1971 Duke University had graduated 68 PA's from its Physician's Associate Program. Of these, 34 are employed as assistants in family practice or general medicine in a variety of private and institutional settings. Data were collected on eleven of these 34 PA's. No attempt was made to study the other 34 graduates engaged in clinical specialties, administration, or other functions. Neither was any attempt made to collect data on or draw inferences about the utilization and productivity of graduates of any other program such as the MEDEX Program.⁴     

The location of public services considering the mode of travel

By reason of their generally longer travel times, transit users are not so well-served by many public facilities as are automobile drivers. This paper investigates the implications of this fact for the location of a specific type of service, public child day care. A location-allocation model is employed to determine the most accessible locations for a set of centres in Edmonton, Canada, for users of both modes. Transit is found to be capable of providing only 51% of the accessibility of the automobile, at 2.4 times the average travel time. The argument is advanced that in order to reduce the inequality of service to a minimum, public facilities should be located with the accessibilities of transit users in mind. The optimal systems are compared with Edmonton's present system which is found to be spatially inefficient and quite discriminatory in its inefficiency against transit users. This is attributed to the city's piecemeal planning policy and an inadequate understanding of the notion of accessibility. The paper concludes by recommending improvements which would improve our simple diagnostic model to the level of a useful planning device.     

A psychometric analysis of residential location

Traditional housing needs studies focus on the trade-off between location and housing amenities. In most models, mode choice is viewed as conditional behavior in a given setting. New movers, however, select a new environment which includes a house, neighbourhood and transportation system. By using psychometric techniques, the attitudes and preferences of new movers to the suburbs of a large northeast city were analyzed to determine the relative importance in their selection process of the transportation characteristics of the new location. It was found that local and regional transportation and public transit played little role in selecting an apartment. There was no evidence of tradeoffs between travel time and living space postulated by urban economics. Most important to the choice process of these residents were internal characteristics of the apartment and pricing issues. This supports the idea that suburbanites chose to be captive auto users even when equivalent housing opportunities with transport alternatives are available. Implications for public transit and land use planning alternatives for the suburbs are discussed.     

洛阳市公交线路优化模型的构建

随着个人用车数量的增多,交通拥堵问题在各个城市显现的更加严峻,发展公交事业是缓解交通问题的有效途径之一。为了对现有公交线网进行优化,有效利用现有交通资源,解决城市交通问题,本文分析了公交路线的优化目标及约束条件,建立了公交线网的线性优化模型。针对洛阳市公共交通存在的问题,文中又建立了公交线网优化的直达乘客密度模型。     

A socio-economic activity distribution model for nonincorporated minor civil divisions; The case of Maryland

Planners and administrators alike increasingly recognize the need for a quantitative tool that could be used to evaluate the effects of policies and other socio-economic attributes on the level of activities in non-incorporated subcounty areas of the State. In this paper, a quantitative model that could be used for such a purpose in presented.To overcome the problem of insufficiency of census data, temporal administrative data were collected for 224 Minor Civil Divisions or Election Districts (MCD's or ED's) of 20 counties of the State of Maryland from eclectric sources and then processed through utilization of University of Maryland multi-variate computer programs. Regressional equations were then constructed for a host of socio-economic activities (e.g. population, employment, etc.). The outcome of this endeavor supports a proposition advocated by the author in an earlier working paper (June 1979) namely that variables denoting such activities and their respective attributes could be obtained by processing administrative data which is tabulated periodically by county, State and public utility organizations.Although only the general model is presented hereafter, the results obtained in this research endeavor reinforce the idea that a family of models rather than a single general model should be constructed for various types of MCD's of the State (e.g. rural and urban). Moreover, the results seem to support ideas advocated by the author [13] and Hill [11] in their respective studies that the equations of the model could be improved even further by transforming them into a “Semiendogenous” form.The model in its present form could be used as a tool for carrying out an impact analysis study. For instance, the impact of sewer and water facilities as well as land use policies on building permits could be examined through the utilization of this model. Another example of its applicability is the examination of employment opportunity impact on population or the average price of dwelling units. Although all needed data were assembled, to use the model as a forecasting tool requires consultation with county planning officials concerning future policies (e.g. land use, sewer/water) and some improvement of the mode(s).     

M regression approach for satisfaction of municipality services: the case of Eskisehir

Studies on increasing the effectiveness of municipality services will be carried out only by measuring and increasing the public’s satisfaction with the services. Such studies are considered as feedback for increasing the quality of municipality services and maintaining the productivity of these services. In recent years, thanks to the services provided in line with the understanding of social municipality services, Eskisehir, which has become one of the most popular cities in Turkey, set an example for the municipalities of other cities. The purpose of the present study was to determine the factors influencing the degree of public satisfaction with the services provided by the Metropolitan Municipality of Eskisehir and to establish a mathematical model determining the public’s level of overall satisfaction with the services. In the study, first, the attitudes of the public in Eskisehir towards the services of the Metropolitan Municipality of Eskisehir were examined via factor analysis. As a result of the analysis, the factor scores regarding the factors obtained from the public’s satisfaction with the municipality services were considered as independent variables, and a mathematical model determining the public’s level of overall satisfaction with the services was created. Because, while creating this model, outliers were found in y direction within the data set, M regression analysis, resistant to such outliers, was applied. With the help of the mathematical model established as a result of the study, it was possible to determine all the factors influencing the public’s overall satisfaction with the municipality services and to find out how influential these factors were on the degree of their satisfaction with such municipality services as the transportation and traffic regulations, cultural and art activities, environmental cleaning and planning and arrangement of parks/gardens and sports areas.     

Optimal allocation of land to transportation in a non-optimal urban structure

This paper deals with the optimal allocation of land to competing uses, residential and transportation, in a built-up urban structure. The land to be allocated is being produced by an optimal demolition activity of the standing housing stock. The population removed has to be housed on the allocated residential land. Hoyt's sector theory is supported.     

Mode choice,transport structure and urban land use

A theoretical model of the urban land market is solved to examine the impact of bimodal passenger transportation on equilibrium residential land use. In this model travel to the central business district occurs on a dense system of radial roads or bus routes and a competing system or radial expressways or mass transit lines fed by a subsidiary system of densely spread access streets. Under rational behavior assumptions for households, it is shown that various basic urban forms can result depending on the relative generalized cost characteristics of the competing dense and sparse radial networks. The basic urban forms yield fundamental shapes, differing as to the relative geometry and position of the market areas for the two modes. The standard Alonso-Muth model of unimodal travel and circular urban form is found to result as a special case in several of these cases. American urbanized areas of various sizes and modal mix provide plausible examples for each of the basic forms. The paper concludes with a discussion of the model's implications as a framework for examining optimum urban transport structure and the proliferation of transport routes as a function of urban size.     

Macroeconomic forecasting with a vector arima model: A case study of the finnish economy

The vector ARIMA (VARIMA) model is a multivariate generalization of the univariate ARIMA model. VARIMA can accomodate assumptions on exogeneity and on contemporaneous relationships. Exogeneous forecasts and non-zero future shocks make it possible to generate alternative forecasts. In a case study VARIMA well describes developments in the 1970's and successfully competes with judgemental methods and ARIMA in providing a general outlook of the early 1980's.     

An extension of Mohring's model for land rent distribution

In an early paper Herbert Mohring (J. Pol. Econ., 49 (1961)) presented a model for land rent distribution yielding the well-known result that the price of land must fall with the distance from the city center to offset transportation costs. Our paper is an extension of Mohring's model in which we relax some of his drastic simplifying assumptions. This extended model has been incorporated in a method for economic evaluation of city master plans which has been applied to a Swedish city. In this method the interdependence among housing, heating, and transportation, the durability of urban structures, and the uncertainty of future demand are explicitly considered within a cost-benefit approach. Some empirical results from this pilot study concerning land rent distributions are also presented here.     

How supervisors set the tone for long hours: Vicarious learning,subordinates' self-motives and the contagion of working hours

This paper develops a theoretical model that highlights the mechanisms underlying the contagion of long working hours from supervisors to subordinates at different stages of their relationship. Drawing upon social learning theory, we suggest that subordinates mimic the supervisor's working hours through vicarious learning. Focusing first on the role-taking stage of the supervisor-subordinate relationship, we identify four factors, namely supervisor's perceived status, subordinate's work centrality, congruence between organizational norms and supervisor's working hours, and subordinate's identification with the supervisor, that may influence the perceived desirability of adopting the supervisor's working hours. We then examine the relative influence of each of these factors through the lens of subordinates' self-motives. Turning, next, to the routinized supervisor-subordinate relationship, we elaborate on how social contagion may evolve over time. Lastly, the implications of our model as well as future research avenues are presented.     

Spatial equilibrium with local public goods: Urban land rent,optimal city size and the Tiebout hypothesis

This paper extends the standard model of urban land rent to consider the spatial equilibrium conditions in a local public goods market as hypothesized by Charles M. Tiebout. An analysis is made of the spatial dimensions of public goods, their degree of ‘localness’ and their impact on land values. It is shown that the optimal population size of the community (Tiebout's sixth assumption) is simultaneously derived with the optimal supply of local public goods and local taxes. It is also shown that land rent is a poor output indicator of Tiebout's equilibrium conditions and that the capitalization assumption is not the appropriate test for his hypothesis.     

On the existence of maximum likelihood estimates in random effects models for clustered multivariate binary data

We consider a class of random effects models for clustered multivariate binary data based on the threshold crossing technique of a latent random vector. Components of this latent vector are assumed to have a Laird–Ware structure. However, in place of their Gaussian assumptions, any specified class of multivariate distribution is allowed for the random effects, and the error vector is allowed to have any strictly positive pdf. A well known member of this class of models is the multivariate probit model with random effects. We investigate sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for the location and the association parameters. Implications of our results are illustrated through some hypothetical examples.     

Urban household behavior in a model of completely centralized employment

The following results are obtained from an urban residential model of completely centralized employment, first expounded by Richard Muth: Housing price falls at a decreasing numerical rate with distance from the CBD; the CBD-employed household's housing consumption and location (distance from the CBD) are positively related to preferences for housing, but negatively related to housing price (level and rate of decline with distance) and transportation costs (level, rate of increase with distance, and rate of increase with value-of-time). Some of these results are new and others are generalizations, corrections, or clarifications of Muth's original results.     

Two-level national-regional planning and mathematical programming decomposition applied to spatial price equilibrium models2

This paper is concerned with computation strategies related with the quantitative analysis of only a sector of a global economy (e.g. agriculture or energy). Under a ceteris paribus condition on the environment of the sector, and within the hypothetical context of the neoclassical economic theory, it is well known a type of partial equilibrium model that can be cast mathematically into an optimization framework. We attempt here to a typical specification which considers spatially separated markets, that has been called spatial price equilibrium model and that has contained within it many classical transportation problems (one for each commodity). The model is specially suitable for mathematical programming decomposition, resulting regional sybsystems whose coupling variables are the transportation flows. We explore here this structure, discussing two decomposition algorithms with economic interpretations that suggest decentralized procedures for planning. The first—of the price coordination type—is a variant of the Dantzig-Wolfe's principle which is expected to have a low number of cycles of information flow between the master level and the sub-problems (at each cycle it is calculated a series of regional production-consumption responses to alternative prices generated by transhipment problems at the central planning level). The second algorithm specializes the Geoffrion's projection/feasible directions technique, so interpreting the problem solution within the context of a net-output target coordination.     

Operations change interactions in a service environment: Attitudes,behaviors, and profitability

An attitudinal and behavioral change program was developed and implemented in a service operations function. Changes were (1) stabilizing operations management (reducing turnover) and (2) improving attitudes and behaviors of employees with strong union affiliations in a common carrier trucking terminal when compared to similar employees in a control terminal undergoing no planned change. Management turnover was reduced. Other results from the eighteen-month longitudinal study indicated that employee attitudes in both groups remained negative toward work, management, and the company throughout the study period. Behaviors relating to attitudes — particularly turnover, absenteeism, and accident rates—improved at the experimental terminal, even though expressed attitudes remained negative. Operating efficiencies and profitability improved at the experimental terminal. It was found that these employees, pick-up and delivery drivers, retain positive attitudes toward customers and customers the same toward them, in spite of the drivers' negative attitudes toward the company. The operative service employee appeared to discriminate between attitudes toward the company and the customer; the drivers' negative attiudes toward most everything (except the customer) not affecting the customer's perceptions of the driver or the company.     

Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations

The paper develops a two-step estimator for use in rational-expectations models with autocorrelated residuals and predetermined, but not strictly exogenous, instruments. The estimator extends the applicability of McCallum's (1976) error-in-variablesapproach to estimating such models, and is asymptotically efficient in a class of intrumental-variables estimators. As an application we use instrumental-variables techniques to estimate Taylor's (1979) rational-expectations macroeconomic model of the United States.     

Using the variance structure of the conditional autoregressive spatial specification to model knowledge spillovers

This study investigates the pattern of knowledge spillovers arising from patent activity between European regions. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed that specifies region‐specific latent effects parameters modeled using a connectivity structure between regions that can reflect geographical proximity in conjunction with technological and other types of proximity. This approach exploits the fact that interregional relationships may exhibit industry‐specific technological linkages or transportation network linkages, which is in contrast to traditional studies relying exclusively on geographical proximity. We also allow for both symmetric and asymmetric knowledge spillovers between regions, and for heterogeneity across the regional sample. A series of formal Bayesian model comparisons provides support for a model based on technological proximity combined with spatial proximity, asymmetric knowledge spillovers, and heterogeneity in the disturbances. Estimates of region‐specific latent effects parameters structured in this fashion are produced by the model and used to draw inferences regarding the character of knowledge spillovers across the regions. The method is illustrated using sample data on patent activity covering 323 regions in nine European countries. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.