European Agriculture after Brexit: Does Anyone Benefit from the Divorce?

The UK exited the EU on 31 January 2020, with a transition period agreed as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. During this transition period the UK and the EU will decide on their future trading relationship. No matter what form this relationship takes, there will be disturbances to agri‐food markets. This study analyses four different scenarios with increasing barriers to trade, ranging from a very close relationship similar to the European Economic Area to a distant relationship in which the UK and EU trade on Most Favoured Nation terms, using the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase in all scenarios, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. Only in a free trade agreement scenario does the UK show an unambiguous positive net welfare gain in just the agri‐food sector. In the case of the European Economic Area scenario, which assumes continued access to the single market, the net welfare impact would depend on the size of the UK’s continued contribution to the EU. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but the sum of the loss in farmers’ incomes and the UK’s EU CAP contribution would be much greater than the consumer’s gain. These impacts in agricultural markets under different future trade arrangements will also be influenced by the UK’s agricultural policy changes in direct payments as well as by possible further UK trade liberalisation after the end of the transition period.     

为何逆差越拉越大：中国农产品国际贸易结构、逆差逻辑与破局之道

目的 当前我国农产品国际贸易已迈入新的发展阶段,但同时也为维护国家农产品安全带来了一系列前所未有的非传统压力和挑战。方法 文章以中国农业国际贸易逆差持续扩大为视角,基于2000—2022年中国农产品国际贸易数据,全面比较分析了中国农产品国际贸易的发展与变化。结果 （1）我国农业国际贸易逆差达到历史最高水平,由于内需缺口扩大和比较优势逐渐消失,逆差在中长期无法缓解。区域上,逆差呈现南美洲北美洲大洋洲欧洲（非洲基本持平）,贸易对象上,逆差主要来源于巴西、美国、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、泰国和阿根廷等国;（2）贸易产品上,大豆、畜产品、棉花和谷物等成为逆差主要来源。（3）逆差成因上,既包含内部技术体系不成熟,出口产品缺乏核心竞争力;内源性产能不足,个别产品缺口明显;国际组织能力不强,缺乏农业国际话语权;农产品市场开放度高,保护性措施不足等因素引发的农产品“难以出去”“不得不进”“难以竞争”“难以调配”和“难以抵挡”的情况,也包含外部外源性竞争激烈,市场容量压缩;特异性壁垒高筑,出口面临“围城”的“难以抗衡”和“不得而出”的困境。结论 新一轮更高水平开放背景下,亟须转型思维、构建多元农产品安全供给体系。从需求端强化技术支撑稳定提升国内供给能力,完善贸易规则保护国内市场;从供给端细分出口市场,扩大优势农产品出口,从而推动我国农业国际贸易高质量发展。     

Preface

The paper examines the main issues surrounding distributional effects in the domains of natural resource management and land policies, agricultural technology and research policies, agricultural market and trade policies, and consumer‐oriented policies, including standards, subsidies, and labeling. Agriculture is drifting into an ever more drastic bifurcation at a global level and within many countries. Correcting that bifurcation will require large investments in rural areas and rural people, in institutions, and in information and biological technologies accessible by the poor in the world's smallholder sector. Large and growing national and international inequalities related to agriculture and rural areas threaten peace, growth, and sustainable development.     

Feasibility of Trading International Futures Contracts for Shelled Peanuts

A survey of the world-wide peanut industry was conducted to investigate the feasibility of an international shelled peanut futures contract. The study finds that there is a substantial interest and favorable attitudes toward the futures markets and the proposed contract among the respondents. The potential trading volumes, based on the survey responses and international trade statistics, were estimated to fall between 113,745 and 562,645 contracts (20 metric tons per contract). The estimates were considered high enough to indicate a potential for successful introduction of the contract to a futures market.     

新发展格局下中国主要农产品进口战略分析

目的 改革开放以来,中国粮食等重要农产品生产取得举世瞩目成就,谷物、肉类等重要农产品总产量稳居世界前列,人均占有量和消费量稳步提升,满足城乡居民不断增长的消费需求,但受诸多因素影响,通过国际市场调剂国内余缺、补充国内农产品结构性供需缺口业已成为客观现实。近年来,中国农产品进口面临的国内外风险与压力不断增大。方法 文章采用统计分析等方法,系统梳理农产品进口现状,研判未来农产品进口趋势,最后研究提出应对策略建议。结果 当前,在保持主要农产品基本自给的同时,中国农产品进口呈持续增长态势;进口结构有所调整,大豆占进口农产品的份额最大;进口渠道呈现多元化,但市场集中度高的现实未得到转变。未来,在国内市场供需“紧平衡”且国内生产竞争优势不足的情况下,中国农产品进口将继续保持在较高水平;进口空间尚存,但须警惕外部不确定性因素的负面影响。结论 应理性看待中国农产品进口这一客观形势,坚持适度安全原则,进一步夯实国内农产品供给保障基础,加大农产品贸易合作力度,增强不确定性因素应对能力。     

Is native timber tree intercropping an economically feasible alternative for smallholder farmers in the Philippines?

Integration of trees on upland farms in the Philippines has been slower than expected and desirable from an environmental perspective. Our economic and risk analysis points to current policies as part of the problem. The study compares three domesticated indigenous timber trees (Shorea contorta V., Pterocarpus indicus J., and Vitex parviflora W.) intercropped with maize against a benchmark of the widely used exotic mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla K.). We used a biophysical simulation model (WaNuLCAS 3.1) to represent interaction between trees and crops for a fundamental level of water, nutrient and light capture as the basis for production functions. External conditions affecting systems profitability were accounted for in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Elements of risk were introduced through Monte Carlo simulation. Study results revealed that from a farmer’s perspective intercropping systems provide similar (within an uncertainty range of + or ? 10%) returns to monocropping scenarios. When net subsidies and taxes are accounted for, social profitability evaluations favour tree intercropping at high tree densities. The net effect of the current bias in price policies towards food production therefore refrains farmers from making decisions to integrate trees on farms; a decision that is actually in the national interest on economic grounds, even without consideration of positive environmental effects.     

全球农产品贸易网络演化与中国对策

[目的]面对日益严峻复杂的国际经济政治环境,理清全球农产品贸易格局演变的特征及趋势,对于及时应对国际农产品市场风险、提高国际循环利用能力具有重要意义。[方法]基于社会网络分析法,利用1996—2021年世界农产品贸易数据,文章从总体—行业—加工程度3个维度分别构建了全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了全球农产品贸易网络的格局演化及重要节点特征。[结果]（1）各国间农产品贸易关联日益加深,处于核心地位的国家数量显著增加,以美国为代表的单中心主导地位被削弱,但由少数国家主导全球农产品贸易的情形并未改变。（2）中国在全球农产品贸易网络中地位显著提升,点度中心度和接近中心度均位于前列,但中介中心度处于较低水平,说明中国对全球农业资源和市场的掌控能力依然不足。（3）各国在不同细分行业中的地位呈现明显的异质性,大多数国家的进口集中于少数贸易伙伴的少数产品,加工贸易逐渐成为全球农产品贸易的主流,发展高附加值农产品贸易成为各国农业贸易长远发展的战略选择。[结论]为此,应持续优化农产品贸易布局,拓展与亚洲、拉美、非洲等新兴市场的贸易,不断提升农业全球价值链地位。