UNEMPLOYMENT PERSISTENCE AND THE NAIRU: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

This paper estimates the United States and euro area NAIRU in a Bayesian framework. We set out a simple structural model explaining unemployment by demand and supply factors, which are treated as unobserved variables that have observable effects on measured unemployment, output and inflation. The model allows for unemployment persistence and a time-varying core inflation rate. The results show that although cyclical shocks are very persistent, most of the increase in European unemployment is driven by structural factors. The degree of persistence is lower in the United States but demand shocks seem to be more important in explaining variation in unemployment.     

THE DYNAMICS OF LABOUR'S INCOME SHARES AND THE WAGE CURVE–PHILLIPS CURVE CONTROVERSY

Based on a re-parameterised Blanchflower–Oswald model this paper uses long macro-data from the OECD countries to discriminate between the Philips curve and the wage curve and examines whether there are any differences in wage dynamics between Europe and the United States. The evidence gives support for the Phillips curve and shows that wage dynamics are no different between the United States and Europe.     

MACROECONOMIC AND REDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF CONSUMPTION TAXES IN THE USA*

This paper studies the effect of an increase in consumption taxes using a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations calibrated to the US economy. When the proceeds are used to reduce income taxes, the reform raises the aggregate capital and labour supply in the long run. Workers increase labour supply immediately in response to the reform, while consumption rises only gradually. The tax reform also transfers wealth from old consumers to young consumers. As a result, while future generations experience significant welfare gains, current generations, particularly old consumers, tend to experience sizable welfare losses. When the proceeds are used for a lump‐sum transfer, the aggregate capital and labour both decrease in the long run. This reform is welfare‐improving for the current low‐income households.     

Dynamics of regional unemployment rates in Brazil: Fractional behavior,structural breaks,and Markov switching

This paper investigates unemployment dynamics in Brazil and in its major metropolitan regions using a fractional integration model. Aspects regarding structural breaks and regime switches are discussed as well. To do that, the methods proposed by Hassler and Meller (2009) and Tsay and Härdle (2009) are used. The major results indicate that unemployment rates have two different levels of persistence. The first one is nonstationary whereas the second one is nonstationary but mean-reverting. Based on these findings, the convergence hypothesis of regional unemployment rates was tested. Following the fractional stochastic convergence criterion put forward by Mello and Guimaraes-Filho (2007), it was concluded that regional unemployment rates are convergent.     

ENDOGENOUS SELECTION OF PRODUCERS,ASSET PRICES,AND PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN*

This paper presents a simple heterogeneous agent model to show that shocks that reduce aggregate borrowing capacity of producers under borrowing constraints cause endogenous productivity slowdowns through declines in asset prices and biased selections of producers. These dynamics of the model replicate the qualitative features of the Japanese economy during the 1990s, including a decline in the within effect in total factor productivity growth decomposition as well as default on mortgage loans. Policy experiments demonstrate that foreclosure restrictions already in place mitigate an exogenous productivity slowdown, but that a tightening of foreclosure restrictions causes an endogenous productivity slowdown.     

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES: THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND PUBLIC FUNDING

This paper presents microeconometric evidence on financing constraints for research and development activities in German small‐ and medium‐sized firms (SME). Special attention is paid to the role of public research and development (R&D) subsidies. For this purpose SMEs in West and East Germany are compared because these regions are very different in their supply of public R&D funding. The empirical evidence suggests that West German SMEs are financially constrained in their R&D activities by both internal and external resources. In East Germany, firms are not sensitive to external constraints, possibly due to high public R&D subsidies. The results show that R&D in East Germany is to a large extent driven by public subsidies and that the usual financial market mechanisms are dysfunctional with respect to R&D in this region.     

Economic growth, labor market and demographic patterns

This study addresses the dynamic interaction between income growth, patterns of demographic variables, and characteristics of the labor market. We attempt to provide an endogenous explanation for the origin and nature of long-run sustained oscillations in the population and in economic variables. First, we develop an economic growth model containing unemployment. The resulting dynamics reveal that the emergence of irregular sustained oscillations is related to the lack of sensitivity in wage growth to changes in the employment rate. Next, labor force growth is endogenized in the basic model through micro-founded fertility choices of individuals. By introducing the endogenous fertility rate into the basic model, we generate a demographic transition. Next, consistent with Malthusian cycle literature, the inevitable time lag between individual reproductive decisions and subsequent market needs, in conjunction with a highly specialized labor force, appear to be the primary source of such long-run oscillations. Finally, the model predicts that raising the age of entry into the labor force increases economic growth.     

A REGIONAL MODEL OF OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION IN THE UKCS

Existing exploration–discovery models are generally characterised by equations describing the behaviour of exploration, success rates, and discoveries. The present paper adds two equations describing the behaviour of finding costs and exploration efficiency. The model was disaggregated along regional lines. Applying the model to UK Continental Shelf data over the period 1964–2002 produced results that supported the new approach. Analysis of the model dynamics and simulation forecast reveals similarities, but also important differences in the responsiveness of activity in the regions to policy multipliers, implying that uniform policy instruments will produce unequal responses in areas with different levels of maturity.     

REASSESSING SEGMENTATION IN THE LABOUR MARKET: AN APPLICATION FOR ITALY 1995–2004

The aim of this paper is to test for the presence of dualism in a standard wage regression. The disparity in wages between primary and secondary workers, according to labour market segmentation theory, is not provided by worker characteristics, but rather by job characteristics. A standard way to assess this situation is by looking at the estimated coefficients in a standard regression for comparable workers across different labour market segments. In an attempt to avoid arbitrary modelling choices, we deploy mixture regression methods which allow for endogenous determination of the number of existing labour market segments. Using Italian data, our modelling strategy outlines stark differences in returns to human capital between homogeneous workers in different markets. Thus, future policies should consider these findings when implementing labour market measures.     

MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION POLICIES IN THE EMU: SPILLOVERS, ASYMMETRIES AND INSTITUTIONS

This paper studies the institutional design of the coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within a monetary union in the framework of linear quadratic differential games. A central role in the analysis plays the partitioned game approach of the endogenous coalition formation literature. The specific policy recommendations in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) context depend on the particular characteristics of the shocks and the economic structure. In the case of a common shock, fiscal coordination or full policy coordination is desirable. When anti‐symmetric shocks are considered, fiscal coordination improves the performance but full policy coordination does not produce further gains in policymakers' welfare.     

浙江省县域经济差异演化实证研究与R/S分析

文章探讨了浙江省县域经济差异的演化关系,主要运用基尼系数、加权变异系数、泰尔系数及经济区位嫡等指标对浙江省11个地级市进行衡量,并在此基础上对各指标进行分形的肪分析.结果显示,浙江省经济发展的县域差异遵守赫斯特律,其在时间上具有典型的自相似性,并且地区间发展差异在未来具有进一步扩大的趋势.最后,文章对县域经济发展差异的形成原因进行了深入的探讨.     

中国区域公立科技创新资源与经济发展水平相关性分析

各国各政府相继开展了创新系统建设,而"创新型城市"、"创新型区域"的建设成为国家创新体系的重要组成部分。利用突变级数法综合考虑地区生产总值、年末总人口、人均地区生产总值、经济密度,对地区经济发展水平进行评价;并基于地区公立科研机构对地区科技创新资源进行评估,研究区域公立科技创新资源与经济发展水平之间相关性。中国区域经济发展水平与公立科技资源之间并无明显的正相关关系。由二者决定的散点图,呈现较弱的抛物线分布。因此,区域公立科技投入如何与经济发展水平进行匹配,以提高科技产出效率,有待进一步研究支撑。     

产业地域联动的测度方法及其应用探讨

产业地域联动对于优化区域产业结构、提升区域经济竞争力至关重要.文章在阐述产业地域联动内涵的基础上,对其测度方法进行了讨论,并以苏北、苏中、苏南为代表,定量分析了近年来三大区域产业联动的实际状况,据此提出了加快产业地域联动促进江苏区域经济发展的对策建议.     

APPRENTICES AND YOUNG WORKERS: A STUDY OF THE NORWEGIAN YOUTH LABOUR MARKET

Apprenticeship programmes are in many countries important stepping stones into the labour market. However, recruitment of apprentices seems to follow the business cycle. This pattern may be caused by firms' contemporaneous demand for labour, but may also be consistent with an investment hypothesis. A model, in which the tightness in the labour market is taken into account, is tested on a sample of Norwegian quarterly firm‐specific data. The empirical findings give moderate support to an investment hypothesis. The apprentices substitute to some degree for skilled labour but are recruited primarily based on the labour market situation. The wage level plays a minor role for recruitment of apprentices.     

中国农村信息化发展态势及其区域差异

新的信息技术(ICTs)社会扩散的不均等性成为地区信息化发展的障碍之一,这种不均等不仅体现在城乡之间,广大农村地区的差异亦非常显著。作者从农村信息基础设施发展、农村网民发展、涉农网站建设等角度出发,通过宏观与中观区域视角剖析了农村信息化的时空演变特征。研究发现,固定电话、电视机与移动电话普及率的东、中、西差异不明显,而家用电脑普及率的区域差异最大,说明家用电脑拥有率是造成农村信息化区域差异的主要因素。农村网民主要集中在东部地区,且增长速度高于中西部地区,农村网民的东西差异会继续增大。从中观省域层面上,农村信息基础设施拥有情况与居民纯收入呈明显正相关,并且家用电脑拥有水平与收入相关性最高。     

"新区域主义"与我国的区域协调发展

章总结了20世纪90年代出现的“新区域主义”的主要特点：①关注区域特性,研究方法注重系统分析与实地调研;②直面区域和城市发展中的各种社会问题;③综合平衡社会公平、环境保护、经济增长的发展目标;④重视物质规划以及不同层次物质规划与社会、经济发展规划之间的密切配合,在此基础上,进一步分析了“新区域主义”对我国区域协调发展研究方法、研究对象、发展目标及区域规划方面的启示,并探讨了区域协调发展的组织实施。