An axiomatic foundation for poisson frequency analyses of weakly interacting populations

An axiomatic foundation is developed for Poisson frequency analyses of population processes. In particular it is shown that for a wide range of population processes, Poisson frequencies can be characterized in terms of two simple independence axioms: (i) independence of the individual states of population members for any given population size, and (ii) independence of the population frequencies within any given partition of states. Hence, for all independent population processes satisfying these two conditions, one must necessarily employ the Poisson distribution for all frequency analyses. More generally, it is shown that for a variety of weakly interacting populations in which these conditions are approximately satisfied, the Poisson distribution continues to provide a natural framework for analysis. In addition, it is shown that this notion of independent population processes yields a new characterization of classical spatial Poisson processes. Finally, these results are applied to a specific class of population processes involving spatial flow phenomena.     

我国人口资源可持续发展存在的问题及发展策略

人口、资源、环境是影响社会经济可持续发展的三大基本因素,人口因素之所以对可持续发展产生重大影响,处理好人口与资源、环境的关系,对促进社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。从中国人口的可持续发展来看,中国首要的任务是要控制人口数量,提高人口素质。不仅要强调人口文化智力素质的提高和人口资源环境素质的提高,而最根本的是要实现中国人口的现代化。     

基于流动人口特征的首都人口疏解与管控

流动人口的迁移行为是多种因素共同作用的结果,关于人口迁移的政策制定应建立在对流动人口特征及变化趋势的深入了解基础之上。在京流动人口以劳动年龄人口为主,对于增加劳动力供给和缓解老龄化压力做出了显著的贡献。多数流动人口在京居住依赖租房,房租是导致其生活成本日益上升的重要因素;流动人口的社会融入程度较低,尤其城乡接合部地区社会隔离现象较为显著,大量流动人口未能有效融入现代城市的生产生活体系。首都的人口管控与城市治理是一个系统工程,既要通过“控”“收”联动,加强人口的有序流动,也要疏解与引导相结合,使流动人口的结构与行为更符合首都发展的需要。     

"非典"与流动人口管理模式改革路径的选择

从人口迁移规律入手,分析了"非典"流行期间,北京流动人口管理中存在的种种问题,认为这是执行流动人口和户籍人口"分立并行"管理体制的结果;提出了以"居住地人口管理"模式取代"户籍属地管理"模式的改革设想.     

Predictive estimation of finite population mean using product estimator

If the predictive approach advocated byBasu [1971] is adopted for estimating the mean of a finite population, it is observed that the use of mean per unit estimator, regression estimator and ratio estimator as a predictor for the mean of unobserved units in the population result in the corresponding customary estimators of the mean of the whole population. Whereas if the product estimator is used as a predictor for the mean of unobserved units in the population, the resulting estimator of the mean of the whole population is different from the customary product estimator. The new estimator so obtained is compared with the customary product estimator.     

上海远郊区流动人口集聚研究

远郊区流动人口集聚是大城市人口分布变动的新动向.本文论述了上海远郊区流动人口集聚的现象和集聚过程的阶段性,分析了远郊区流动人口集聚的利弊及动力机制,指出了经济发展是远郊区流动人口集聚的根本动力,提出了调控远郊区流动人口集聚的对策建议.     

北京市人口规模现状与调控

认为有效的人口规模调控,关系着城市发展的最终命运.从北京市人口规模过度膨胀的态势分析入手,提出人口问题直接关系到首都"四个服务"职能的履行,关系到和谐社会首善之区的构建,必须采取切实可行的措施对北京市的人口规模加以调控.而对人口进行必要的调控疏导应当注重策略和方式方法,应当以积极稳妥、正面引导、源头治理为原则,采取经济、法律、行政等综合手段调控北京市的人口总量.     

On the foundations of land use theory : Discrete versus continuous populations

Urban economists and location theorists have long employed land use models with a continuum of agents distributed over a continuum of locations. However, these continous models have been criticized on behavioral grounds in that individual households can consume only zero amounts of land in equilibrium. Hence the central purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative interpretation of these continous models as limiting approximations of discrete population models. In particular, it is shown that for large population sizes, the population distributions of the classical continuous model uniformly approximate the equilibrium population distributions generated by an appropriately defined class of discrete population models.     

Topography and spatial population dualism in the People's Republic of China (1933-1990)

"Looking at half a century of available data, a sharp spatial dualism is observed in the regional population distribution of the People's Republic of China. The vast share of the PRC's population is located in the Eastern and South-Eastern regions. Two topographical variables related to accessibility, distance from the eastern seaboard and elevation, seem to be at the core of this dualism. Their isolated and combined effects upon the spatial distribution of the PRC's population are examined for the period 1933-1990. It is documented that the population concentration in certain regions of the PRC is not so much because of their proximity to the seaboard, but because of their low elevation, especially in the eastern part of the nation. Also documented is a result indicating that in time the combined effects of these impedances on the regional population distribution in the PRC is linearly declining."     

Het begrip Universum in de Statistica

Summary  (The meaning of population in statistics).
The general opinion, that a population consists of a number of objects of observation is shown to be incorrect.
It is pointed out that a series of similar individual discriminations of observation has to be called a population.     

A model for population-recreational quality interactions of a fresh water site

A computer model is devised to explore the structure of the population-recreational site quality relationship. The model is comprised of a hydrology-pollution section and a population forecasting section. The hydrology-pollution section translates the total population load on the watershed of the site into pollutant concentrations in the lake. The population forecasting section determines recreational demand temporally modified by the level of crowding and perceived pollution quality of the lake. Both sections are coupled into a cyclic system iteratively updated on a yearly basis. The 12 yr dynamic performance of a scenic fresh water site located outside of a number of major population centers is illustrated as a test case. The model is programmed for operation on the IBM 360/50 digital computer.     

Some tests of alternative urban population density functions

The purpose of this study is to test the usefulness of some alternative gross population density functions for urbanized areas. Two evaluation criteria are used; maximum explanatory power in standard regression analysis and accuracy in predicting total population in the urbanized area. It is concluded that the explanatory power of the negative exponential function can be improved upon in some cases by adding a quadratic distance term, but that population can be predicted more accurately if the quadratic term is omitted. Also, it is found that constraining the negative exponential function to predict population exactly reduces explanatory power by an insignificant amount.     

引导京津冀地区人口合理布局的思路与对策研究

近年来,北京城市人口规模持续高位攀升,造成了交通拥堵、就业紧张、住房困难、水资源紧缺、环境污染等城市问题。从城市发展战略出发,采取引导和疏散人口的有效措施和政策,是首都实现可持续发展的重要环节。本文基于"京津冀一体化"国家战略,探索通过产业发展和功能提升增强首都周边区域对人口的吸引力,引导京津冀区域人口合理分布和有序流动,从而促进京津冀地区人口与经济社会、资源环境全面协调可持续发展。     

从"人口空间"解读城市:武汉的实例

从"人口空间"上系统解读一个城市为理解中国城市转型提供了一个新的视角,也是人文地理学格局与过程分析的重要组成部分.结合人口普查数据.利用GIS工具,以武汉作为实证时象,系统分析了城市人口迁移和分布的空间特征.试图从"人口空间"的视角解读武汉.研究发现:武汉人口的省外联系特征逐渐突出.人口的辐射地区以中部地区为主兼及四川...     

The components of landline telephone survey coverage bias. The relative importance of no-phone and mobile-only populations

The continuously growing mobile-only population raises concerns regarding the representativeness of traditional landline telephone surveys. At this time, the mobile-only population differs significantly from general population, which leads to coverage bias when using fixed-line samples only for telephone surveys. However, in many European countries the mobile-only population is not the only source of coverage bias in telephone surveys. In addition, we have to consider coverage biases caused by considerable proportions of citizens without any telephone service. Since these two groups differ from the general population with respect to differential socio-demographic categories, in our view, the negative effects of mobile-only coverage error in traditional landline telephone surveys might in fact compensate—in part—for coverage bias caused by the no-phone population. To test this hypothesis of compensating coverage biases we calculated relative coverage biases caused by the mobile-only population and relative coverage biases caused by the no-phone population in 30 European countries for two socio-demographic variables in two points in time. Results are presented for four groups of countries that differ with respect to no-phone and mobile-only rates. Results suggest that—in general—mobile-only biases and no-phone biases do not compensate to a great extent, and thus the alarming mobile-only biases cannot be neglected when using telephone surveys in the estimation of population parameters. Nevertheless, there are several countries where the bias caused by the mobile-only population is far bigger than the joint bias caused by the mobile-only population and the no-phone population. This finding suggests that biases caused by the recent mobile-only population would be even more severe if the no-phone population did not exist.     

Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education-Fertility Link

Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi-state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population.
This first attempt to endogenize structural change with respect to education—which is the greatest measurable source of fertility heterogeneity in Asia—has resulted from a larger exercise of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis to collect empirical information, scientific arguments as well as informed opinions about likely future population trends in Asia from a large number of population experts in the region. In this process, future changes in the educational composition of the population have been identified as a key driver of future fertility.
The actual probabilistic population projections for India show that with high certainty, the Indian population will continue to grow to about 1.3 billion over the next quarter of a century. After that the uncertainty will get much wider, ranging from a continued strong increase to the beginning of a population decline in India.     

湖北省人口收缩城市的空间格局与类型识别

通过对湖北省82个县(市、区)的常住人口变化率和人口净流量进行交互分析,引入城乡建设用地脱钩模型和人口—土地城镇化协调指数,分析了人口收缩区域建设用地结构和城镇化协调类型。结果显示,湖北省存在37个人口持续流出、规模减少的区域,这些区域不仅在总量上表现为人口收缩与建设用地扩张的悖论关系,而且在城镇化方面也多表现为人口城镇化与土地城镇化不协调的状态,而从城乡建设用地结构的角度表现为不同的脱钩类型,其中仅有少数收缩区域是强脱钩的合理利用状态。从不同表现特征可将收缩城市类型分为空间无序扩张型、工业衰退型、资源枯竭型以及中心袭夺型四个类别,并概括为人口资源与土地资源、经济发展等在时空上的不匹配。最后,结合资源禀赋、经济结构变化等特征对人口收缩区域类别进行了归纳,并提出了针对性的城市规划和发展建议。     

A theoretical relationship between the rank-size rule and Clark's law of urban population distribution: Duality in the rank-size rule

This paper theoretically shows the necessary and sufficient conditions for the robust rank-size rule: the rank-size rule that robustly holds for any choice of threshold urban population density by which populations of cities are determined. First, it is shown that when urban population distribution follows Clark's law, the robust rank-size rule holds if and only if the gradient parameter of the negative exponential distribution of the ith ranked city as √i times as large as that of the first ranked city and the population density at the center is the same for all cities. Second, when urban population distribution follows a certain general class of urban population distribution functions, the robust rank-size rule (of population) holds if and only if the boundary condition is satisfied and the rank-size rule holds with respect to urban areas. These two rank-size rules, the rank-size rule of population and the rank-size rule of urban areas, form the primal-dual relation. Third, if the robust rank-size rule holds, then the constant density rule holds, that is, the average population density of a city over its urban area is the same for all cities.     

Sub-Saharan Africa thirty years hence

By the year 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa's population will probably rise from a 1985 level of about 460 million to about 1.1 billion. Today Africa's population is growing at a rate of roughly 3% a year, with exceptionally high growth rates in some countries. The leaders of Africa, and those who wish to help Africa, confront difficult and urgent problems of drought, political and military conflict, accumulated debt, lower commodity prices, and other factors of immediate and important concern. Africa has given education a high priority and should be as well known for its success in increasing school enrollment as it is for its relative failures in other areas. A projected population of 1.1 billion people and a fertility rate down to 30/1000 by the year 2015 suggests that the number of children old enough to enter primary school will be of the order of 30 million a year at this time. The working-age population will grow from 235 million now to perhaps 600 million in 30 years. The urban population has been growing at about 6% a year--twice the pace of population increase. All of these situations will have an effect on environment, water, and health. Coping with Africa's burgeoning population in terms of children in school, the demand on health systems, the need for jobs, achieving an adequate diet, the provision of basic urban services, and all the rest, is an extraordinary challenge. While the government's role is critical, success at the sectoral level almost always means cost recovery, administration decentralized to the community or to the private sector, and program implementation that does not burden the budget.     

Capital,population and urban patterns

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.