THE ECONOMICS OF ABSENCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Abstract. Worker absenteeism constitutes a significant loss of work-time and therefore has important implications for both household income and firm productivity. Despite this, the economics profession has been somewhat laggard relative to other disciplines in addressing the phenomenon. The situation is, however, changing, with recent years witnessing a mild flurry of activity. The aim of this paper is to maintain, and if possible, enhance this momentum. We do this firstly by developing some basic theoretical ideas which we consider to be central to an economic analysis of absence. In particular, we address the often cited claim that observed absence is unequivocally inefficient. Second, by reviewing some of the key contributions, we attempt to assess where the literature on the economics of absence stands at present, as well as suggesting some potentially fruitful lines of future enquiry.     

MACROECONOMIC POLICY EVALUATION AND OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY: A CRITICAL REVIEW OF SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Abstract. This survey addresses the recent literature on the application of optimal control theory and game theory to macroeconomic policy evaluation and design. This literature focuses on strategic interactions between governments and private agents engaged in dynamic non-cooperative games and emphasizes such issues as precommitment, credibility and reputation as important and endemic aspects of optimal policy design. A dominant theme is the problem of dynamic inconsistency and the inferiority of an equilibrium in single-stage full-information games without commitment. This may be alleviated in repeated games involving reputation effects and threat strategies designed to coerce rivals into pursuing particular strategies and to sustain a sequential equilibrium. The type and characteristics of a sequential equilibrium also depend importantly upon the information structure conditioning players'beliefs under uncertainty. Included here are separating and pooling equilibria, involving notions of learning, signalling and information revelation. Additional dimensions exist in stochastic systems which introduce other forms of uncertainty. Optimal control and game theory have also been applied to international macroeconomic policy design, with emphasis on the potential costs and benefits of non-cooperative and cooperative behaviour between countries and problems of international policy coordination.     

INSTITUTIONS AND PERFORMANCE IN EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKETS: TAKING A FRESH LOOK AT EVIDENCE

Abstract This paper presents a selective survey of the recent literature on labour market institutions and offers new empirical EU‐based evidence on the impact of labour market reforms on employment and labour market adjustment. Although the literature traditionally treats labour market institutions as exogenous, attention shifted recently towards understanding the underlying causes of specific institutional arrangements. As a consequence, the literature highlights the great importance of an efficient policy design exploiting these interactions wisely and identifies general principles for achieving an efficient policy design at both macro and micro levels. Although empirical evidence does not show a major change in terms of intensity of labour market reform after the setting of the Economic and Monetary Union and the creation of the euro, the reforms aiming at strengthening the labour market attachment of vulnerable groups tend to have been successful both in raising their employment and increasing labour market adjustment.     

THE ECONOMICS OF HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK: AN INTERDICIPLINARY REVIEW OF THE THEORY AND POLICY

Abstract This paper engages in an interdisciplinary survey of the current state of knowledge related to the theory, determinants and consequences of occupational safety and health (OSH). It first describes the fundamental theoretical construct of compensating wage differentials, which is used by economists to understand the optimal provision of OSH in a perfectly competitive labour market. The plethora of incentives faced by workers and firms in job and insurance markets that determine the ultimate level of OSH are discussed in detail. The extensive empirical evidence from the hedonic wage and stated choice approaches used to assess the value of OSH is reviewed. The causes of inefficiency and inequity in the market for OSH, such as externalities, moral hazard in compensation insurance, systematic biases in individual risk perception/well‐being and labour market segregation are subsequently examined. The implications of government intervention and regulation for tackling the aforementioned inefficiencies in OSH are then considered. Finally, the survey identifies areas of future research interests and suggests indicators and priorities for policy initiatives that can improve the health and safety of workers in modern job markets.     

THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF MARRIAGE: A REVIEW OF RECENT EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED STATES

In this essay I summarise recent evidence demonstrating that marriage is an institution of great social significance, one that offers economic and health benefits to married adults and similar benefits to their children. Many of these benefits can plausibly be ascribed to the changes in behaviour that ensue when men and women commit to one another in marriage.     

JUSTIFYING A POLICY MIX FOR POLLUTION CONTROL: A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Abstract This paper provides a review of economic studies analysing the use of multiple policies – a so‐called policy mix – to cope with single pollution problems. To guide and structure the review, an analytical framework is developed and applied. The framework integrates transaction costs into the analysis of pollution problems and policies to overcome them. Moreover, it understands a pollution externality not only as a market failure but more generally as the failure of private governance structures. Based on this insight, two rationales for using a policy mix are identified. First, a policy mix may help to correct for multiple reinforcing failures of private governance structures, such as pollution externalities and technological spillovers. Second, a policy mix can be employed if the implementation of single first‐best policies brings about high transaction costs, e.g. when marginal pollution damages are heterogeneous or polluters are unlikely to comply with the policy. For each rationale, the relevant literature is presented. Based on the review, avenues for future research are identified.     

PROPERTY RIGHTS AND THE GENERAL THEORY OF EXCHANGE: FREQUENTLY NEGLECTED IMPLICATIONS OF THE DIVISION OF LABOUR AND THE LAW OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

The importance of the division of labour and the law of comparative advantage to the operation of modern economies are well known, but many of the implications of these phenomena are less widely appreciated. This article examines the implications of the division of labour and the law of comparative advantage for the ownership and exercise of property rights and the creation and distribution of wealth. It is argued that a fuller appreciation of these phenomena leads to the conclusion that restraints on trade and redistributory measures infringe private property rights and reduce wealth.     

OFFSHORING, MULTINATIONALS AND LABOUR MARKET: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on the effects of offshoring and foreign activities of multinational enterprises on developed countries' labour markets. Results suggest that material offshoring worsens wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers; it also seems to make employment more volatile, by raising the elasticity of labour demand and the risk of job losses. Service offshoring exerts at most small negative effects on total employment, and changes the composition of the workforce in favour of high-skilled white-collar employees. Multinationals tend to substitute domestic and foreign labour in response to changes in relative wages across countries; substitutability is weak, however, and mainly driven by horizontal, market-seeking foreign direct investments.     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: EVIDENCE AND THEORY

Abstract. The term structure of interest rates is an old topic. Over the years, both the hypotheses debated and the research techniques used have changed considerably. Two fairly recent developments which distinguish current research are the widespread adoption of rational expectations and the integration of the term structure with the general theory of asset pricing. This survey reviews previous work from this perspective. The main objective is to catalogue available evidence about term premia and to interpret this evidence in light of alternative models of term premia determination.     

LONGITUDINAL STUDIES OF HUMAN GROWTH AND HEALTH: A REVIEW OF RECENT HISTORICAL RESEARCH

Abstract This paper reviews recent literature using stature and weight as measures of human welfare with a particular interest in cliometric or historical research. We begin with an overview of anthropometric evidence of living standards and the new but fast‐growing field of anthropometric history. This literature is always implicitly and often explicitly longitudinal in nature. We then discuss (i) systematic empirical research into the relationship between conditions in early life and later life health and mortality and (ii) historical evidence on the relationship between body mass, morbidity and mortality. We conclude with a discussion of the importance of historical sources and understandings to health economics and population health.     

THE REGIONAL GEOGRAPHY OF U.S. BUSINESS SERVICES GROWTH, 1977–1987: EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Regional analysts and policy makers have long struggled with problems arising from the uneven development of industrial systems. Most efforts have focused on manufacturing even though the business services sector continues to gain importance as a source of employment. This paper provides rigorous analyses of the regional organization of business services employment growth in the United States and discusses some implications of regionalism for the development of industrial policy. The analyses use chi-square goodness-of-fit tests and spatial statistics to examine regional structure. State-level employment data in ten business service industries for two periods, 1977–1982 and 1982–1987, are used in the analyses. The results show that although employment growth varies across the United States, it does not exhibit consistent regional organization. Instead, growth is organized more around metropolitan complexes. The lack of regional organization suggests that industrial policy should focus on the urban concentration of growth, telecommunications infrastructure and urban-rural linkages.     

THE ROLE OF FEES IN PATENT SYSTEMS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper reviews the economic literature on the role of fees in patent systems. Two main research questions are usually addressed: the impact of patent fees on the behavior of applicants and the question of optimal fees. Studies in the former group confirm that a range of fees affect the behavior of applicants and suggest that a patent is an inelastic good. Studies in the latter group provide grounds for both low and high application (or pre‐grant) fees and renewal (or post‐grant) fees, depending on the structural context and policy objectives. The paper also presents new stylized facts on patent fees of 30 patent offices worldwide. It is shown that application fees are generally lower than renewal fees, and renewal fees increase more than proportionally with patent age.     

BRIDGING TRADE THEORY AND LABOUR ECONOMETRICS: THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION*

Abstract This paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics.     

HOW TO MEASURE LABOUR MARKET EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION: A REVIEW

Abstract.  This paper surveys available empirical evidence on labour market effects of immigration. Many different approaches have been used already to try to find out whether immigration hurts the labour market opportunities of natives. No doubt new approaches will follow in the future as globalization will keep the migration issue on the agenda. This literature review discusses the different approaches concentrating on both the methodology and the results. At the end, it tries to summarize available evidence.     

MEASUREMENT,EVOLUTION, DETERMINANTS,AND CONSEQUENCES OF STATE CAPACITY: A REVIEW OF RECENT RESEARCH

There is increasing realization that state capacity is a fundamental ingredient for effective governance, and is a crucial element of long‐run economic development. This paper offers an overview of the strengths and limitations in current empirical research on the measurement of state capacity. The paper also surveys the fast emerging literature on the determinants and effects of state capacity. We argue that existing measures on governance quality used in cross‐national research can be usefully exploited to capture different aspects of state capacity, and show that post the end of the Cold War, developing economies have experienced improvements in legal, administrative and bureaucratic capacity, but the gap with advanced economies is still wide. Future research should address the short temporal coverage of available measures of state capacity, as well as providing a systematic quantitative assessment of the determinants of capacity and of its effects on development outcomes, such as health and education, which have not received sufficient scrutiny.     

COLLATERAL AND CREDIT RATIONING: A REVIEW OF RECENT EMPIRICAL STUDIES AS A GUIDE FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

Abstract.  The relationship between firms and banks often suffers from informational opacity that may result in credit rationing. In theory, providing collateral to the bank can have a mitigating effect on these informational asymmetries and thus solve the credit-rationing problem. Even though collateral is already a widespread debt contract feature, recent trends predict that, in the future, collateral will become even more important for informationally opaque firms. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we provide a review of the recently growing empirical research on collateral as a remedy for credit rationing. Second, we would like to pinpoint gaps and limitations in current empirical research. Most studies contend with a flawed research design by not distinguishing between business and personal collateral and excluding other information opaqueness reducing tools such as the strength of the relationship between borrower and lender, loan maturity and covenants. We also discuss the limitations of using a single equation estimation method and the usefulness of incorporating interaction effects into the estimation models. Finally, we provide suggestions for fruitful research avenues that would fill these gaps and enrich the empirical knowledge in this research domain.     

EVALUATING MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: A CONCISE REVIEW OF SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed, and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyze some recent developments from that perspective. The literature on forecast evaluation predominantly assumes that macroeconomic forecasts are generated from econometric models. In practice, however, most macroeconomic forecasts, such as those from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the ECB, are typically based on econometric model forecasts jointly with human intuition. This seemingly inevitable combination renders most of these forecasts biased and, as such, their evaluation becomes nonstandard. In this review, we consider the evaluation of two forecasts in which: (i) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct econometric models; (ii) one forecast is generated from an econometric model and the other is obtained as a combination of a model and intuition; and (iii) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct (but unknown) combinations of different models and intuition. It is shown that alternative tools are needed to compare and evaluate the forecasts in each of these three situations. These alternative techniques are illustrated by comparing the forecasts from the (econometric) Staff of the Federal Reserve Board and the FOMC on inflation, unemployment, and real GDP growth. It is shown that the FOMC does not forecast significantly better than the Staff, and that the intuition of the FOMC does not add significantly in forecasting the actual values of the economic fundamentals. This would seem to belie the purported expertise of the FOMC.     

A BRAVE EXPERIMENT: KOREA'S RECENT LAND POLICY REFORM AND THE ROLE OF THE LAND HOLDING TAX

Korea's land policy has evolved around the presumption that market intervention is necessary to combat rising prices and speculation. In this paper it is argued, however, that the essence of the land problem is a distributional issue, and that the efforts to selectively punish speculators have had detrimental consequences. Past and present land policy is evaluated from this perspective, and a current policy issue, increasing land holding taxes, is examined. Notwithstanding the theoretical effect of a higher land holding tax, even a radical increase of the tax will not be able to stabilize land prices as long as urban land remains scarce. The government should accelerate deregulation in land use and development.     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE

Abstract The literature on the relationship between the size of government and economic growth is full of seemingly contradictory findings. This conflict is largely explained by variations in definitions and the countries studied. An alternative approach – of limiting the focus to studies of the relationship in rich countries, measuring government size as total taxes or total expenditure relative to GDP and relying on panel data estimations with variation over time – reveals a more consistent picture. The most recent studies find a significant negative correlation: an increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5% to 1% lower annual growth rate. We discuss efforts to make sense of this correlation, and note several pitfalls involved in giving it a causal interpretation. Against this background, we discuss two explanations of why several countries with high taxes seem able to enjoy above average growth. One hypothesis is that countries with higher social trust levels are able to develop larger government sectors without harming the economy. Another explanation is that countries with large governments compensate for high taxes and spending by implementing market‐friendly policies in other areas. Both explanations are supported by ongoing research.