I Want to Be an Economist: A Rejoinder to Ross Gittins

This article provides a rejoinder to Ross Gittins’ commentary on the potential contributions of psychology and behavioural economics to public policy formation. It includes three main arguments. First, that behavioural economics is not a new approach to doing economics, but instead is best seen as a way of enriching ‘conventional economics’ (using Gittins’ terminology). Second, that behavioural economics is not a panacea. Not all aspects of economic activity need psychology to be understood and behavioural economics has limitations. Third, that the failings of conventional economics are not as severe as Gittins suggests.     

Applying behavioural economics to public policy in Canada

Behavioural economics incorporates ideas from psychology, sociology and neuroscience to better predict how individuals make long‐term decisions. Often the ideas adopted include present or inattention bias, both potentially leading to suboptimal outcomes. But these models also point to opportunities for effective, low‐cost government policies that can have meaningful positive effects on people's long‐term well‐being. The last decade has been marked by a growing interest from governments the world over in using behavioural economics to inform policy decisions. This is true of Canada as well. In this paper we discuss the increasingly important role behavioural economics plays in Canadian public policy. We first contextualize government policies that have incorporated insights from behavioural economics by outlining a collection of models of intertemporal choice. We then present examples of public policy initiatives that are based upon findings in the field, placing particular emphasis on Canadian initiatives. We also document future opportunities, challenges and limitations.     

An empirical investigation into the impact of US federal government budget deficits on the real interest rate yield on intermediate-term treasury issues, 1972–2012

This study provides new empirical evidence on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the real interest rate yields on intermediate-term debt issues of the US Treasury, represented herein by the ex post real interest rate yields on 3-year Treasury notes and 7-year Treasury notes, two interest rate measures that have received essentially no attention in the economics and finance literature in recent years. This study is couched within a loanable funds model that includes two ex post real interest rate yields, the monetary base as a per cent of GDP, the change in per capita real GDP, net financial capital inflows as a per cent of GDP and the budget deficit as a per cent of GDP. This study uses annual data for the study period 1972 to 2012, a time period that includes ‘quantitative easing’ monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Two-stage least squares estimations reveal that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a per cent of GDP, exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the ex post real interest rate yields on both 3-year and 7-year Treasury notes, even after allowing for quantitative easing and other factors. The study also considers the time period 1980 to 2012 and offers simple robustness testing.     

SOCIAL ECONOMY IN THE CO-CONSTRUCTION OF PUBLIC POLICY

ABSTRACT:  In this paper, I focus on the contribution of the social economy to the democratization of the State and of public policy by making use of the distinction between the concepts of co-production and co-construction. In part one, I clarify the meanings given to various concepts. In particular, I pay attention to the idea of a co-production of public policy. This concept relates to the organizational dimension of policy and enables a contextualization of the participation of both civil society stakeholders and market forces in the implementation of services to the public. In part two, I discuss the concept of co-construction which relates to the institutional dimension of public policy and enables an analysis of how both civil society stakeholders and market forces are defining public policies. While the co-construction of public policy can produce various types of outcomes, I favor a solidarity-based model in which the State is open to forms of governance inclusive of the contributions of civil society stakeholders and market forces. This type of co-construction is fitting with a concern for the general interest and is ready to use the resources of the social economy. In part three, I review the housing policy case study in Canada and Quebec during the last twenty years. Three observations emerge from this case study: 1) the presence of both co-production and co-construction in public housing policy; 2) an active presence of the social economy such as co-operatives and non-profit organizations; 3) this active presence of the social economy has helped to produce a number of social innovations that have improved the democratization of public policy in the housing field.     

The Henderson Question? The Melbourne Institute and 50 Years of Welfare Policy

I discuss selected research contributions of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research to 50 years of welfare policy for those of workforce age and focus particularly on the policy focus of R. F. Henderson, the inaugural director. Following the spirit of his 1960s poverty research, in the mid‐1970s, government doubled unemployment allowances in real terms and increased pensions by approximately 40 per cent. Both income support payments were to be indexed by average wage increases. At the time, unemployment was typically around 1 per cent and the pension take‐up for those of workforce age was also limited. Today, income support take‐up rates have probably increased fivefold. In response, government has adopted a ‘make work pay’ policy over the last two decades and indexed allowances for Consumer Price Index increases and allowances have fallen by 25–35 per cent, relative to community living standards. Pensions continue to be indexed by average wage changes. I address a range of questions arising from this experience, including: Why has government abandoned the Henderson recommendations?; Is there any evidence that a ‘make work pay’ policy is working?

     

Making economics more useful: how technological eclecticism could help

ABSTRACT

Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical utility of the discipline because universal propositions form only a part of new policy recipes. I further suggest that, as in engineering and medicine, developing economic recipes requires eclectic combinations of suggestive tests and judgement. Additionally, I offer a detailed example of how a simulation model can help evaluate new policy combinations that affect the screening of loan applications.     

#FlattenTheCurve

In this paper I adapt a common model used in economics to study the diffusion of innovations to model the transmission of a virus. Emphasis is placed on the evolution of the number of new infections and the cumulative total number of infections over time and how they might be influenced by different policies. Although the model is very simple it does yield some useful implications for public policy.     

Pareto's ‘Chronicles’ in Relation to his Sociology

The ‘second series’ of the Giornale degli Economisti commenced in 1890 and established itself as the leading Italian vehicle for the dissemination of the new marginalist economics. From 1891 it also included a special feature entitled ‘cronaca’, which critically chronicled practical developments in Italian public policy, public finances and the state of the economy. Vilfredo Pareto was the regular author of the chronicles between 1893 and 1897. This study provides the context necessary for an appreciation of the juxtaposition evident in Pareto's chronicles between his radical-liberal critique of leading Italian politicians and his relatively gentle commentary on some Italian leaders associated with the extreme left. It also identifies attributes from Pareto's chronicles that extended, albeit in a modified form, to his 1916 Trattato di Sociologia Generale. In both instances: the actual political world is characterised on a similar basis; criticism is undertaken on a brutal, sarcastic and often polemic manner; and the left–right political divide is treated as a relatively low-order issue.     

The Economic Emergence of Women: Bergmann's Six Commitments

I suggest in this essay that Barbara Bergmann's approach to the economics of women is characterized by six striking dimensions, or what I call 'commitments', namely: (1) a willingness to incorporate values into her analysis openly; (2) a commitment to applied economics - economic analysis that supports policy change that will improve women's and children's lives; (3) a commitment to empirical economics, i.e. to data collection and data-based analysis; (4) a commitment to communication with the public; (5) a commitment to the truth even if it challenges convenient orthodoxy; (6) a commitment to focus on how change can occur - to be positive not defeatist. A review of these six commitments, I demonstrate, reveals that they are held together by the first one, her willingness to incorporate values into her scholarly work openly.     

Bound by Gravity or Living in a ‘Post Geography Trading World’?* Expert Knowledge and Affective Spatial Imaginaries in the Construction of the UK’s Post-Brexit Trade Policy

A key battle has been fought within the UK cabinet on the direction of post-Brexit trade policy. The opposing sides have favoured either continued alignment or a ‘hard’ break with the European Union’s (EU’s) regulatory and customs regime, in the latter case to allow the UK to pursue an independent and ambitious trade policy agenda. Contrary to much commentary on ‘post-truth’ politics, both sides have relied on rival forms of expertise to support their claims. I argue for the need to not only re-emphasise the malleability and political nature of expert knowledge, but also appreciate its emotional bases. The Treasury has led the charge in favour of a softer Brexit by drawing on econometric (‘gravity’) models that emphasise the economic costs of looser association with the EU. In contrast to this attempt at technocratic legitimation, the specific legal expertise drawn upon by cabinet advocates of ‘hard’ Brexit has appealed to an emotive political economy of bringing the UK, and its (in this imaginary) overly regulated economy, closer to its ‘kith and kin’ in the Anglosphere, deepening the UK ‘national business model’. I conclude by calling for more explicitly emotive and values-based argumentation in the public debate on the UK’s future trade policy to improve the quality of democratic deliberation.     

Regulating Service Quality: A Survey

This article reviews the major insights of the economics literature regarding the design of service quality regulation in public utility industries. The focus is on generic service quality issues of primary relevance in the industries, which include the electricity, telecommunications, and water industries. The instruments that public utility regulators commonly employ and the manner in which the regulators employ the instruments to secure desirable levels of service quality are emphasized.JEL classification: L51, L15I am grateful to Mark Armstrong, Sanford Berg, Michael Crew, Lynne Holt, Mark Jamison, Lilia Perez-Chavolla, Paul Sotkiewicz, Dennis Weisman, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

The “Treasury View”: An (un-)expected return?

Abstract

By examining the rhetorical use of an old piece of economic theory by some contemporary economists, this paper intends to report on “how today's economists conduct a public policy debate”. This paper is neither a scholarly history of the interwar debate nor a sophisticated critique of current economic policy. It is an attempt to link the policy and theoretical arguments of two similar debates separated by nearly 80 years. The second part of the paper demonstrates that the (un-)expected return of the Treasury View is a case study illustrating two very different modelling strategies.     

Institutionalism and Fiscal Policy at Midcentury

This article analyzes the career and contributions of Roy Blough (1901–2000) as a case study of Wisconsin institutionalism in government policy-making at midcentury. As a faculty member at Cincinnati, Chicago and Columbia, editor of the National Tax Journal, director of the research division of the U.S. Treasury and member of the Council of Economic Advisors, Blough played a significant role in the development of fiscal policy. The article also considers Blough’s contributions to tax policy and his views on Keynesian public finance. It further identifies the contributions of Wisconsin institutionalism to modern fiscal policy.     

Monetary and Fiscal Management, Finance, and Growth

This paper addresses three related aspects of monetary and fiscal management in Europe and elsewhere. First, I discuss the implications of economic integration for monetary and fiscal policy, especially the narrow focus on low inflation as the main objective of monetary policy. I argue that because inflation springs from several sources, monetary authorities held responsible by law for maintaining low inflation need to exercise their newfound independence by reserving the right to address all sources of inflation. In this context, I also ponder the question as to whether the increased independence of fiscal policy from short-term political interference would be desirable. Second, I present new empirical evidence of the relationship between inflation, finance, and economic growth across countries, arguing that long-run growth considerations provide an important additional justification for why price stability ought to remain a priority of independent policy makers. Third, I review some further aspects of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, emphasizing the traditional three-pronged role of fiscal management: stabilization, allocation, and distribution, all of which can be conducive to growth. The argument leads to the conclusion that only the stabilization function of fiscal policy and, perhaps, some aspects of the allocation function as well could be usefully delegated in an attempt to immunize them from shortsighted and socially counter-productive political interference, but not the distribution function.     

Public Policy for Growth and Poverty Reduction

In this paper, I would like to outline an approach to publicpolicy that focused on fighting poverty and is based on an understandingof growth and development. Such a public policy requires answeringtwo key questions. First, what are key determinants of a developmentthat benefits poor people – or what has been labelled"pro-poor growth"? And second, we need to answer the policyquestion: how can public action influence the key determinantswe identify? In putting the questions this way, we are settingourselves the task of building a dynamic public economics –a public economics of development. Given that development isthe objective, this task will require a better understandingof how to measure it. And we must also achieve a better graspof changes of behaviour in the process of development, sincechanging perspectives and behaviour are usually an integralpart of the development story. In laying our task of advancinga dynamic public economics, however, let me emphasise that shouldbe building – on – not overturning – pasttheory. In much of the work I will describe, the empirics seemto be ahead of theory. Thus one of my purposes is to highlightsome elements of an agenda for theoretical research. (JEL E6)     

Institutional Economics as Theory of Policy Change: Impact of Past Policy Failures on Present Policy

Social scientists have developed several theories for understanding or evaluating policy change over time. Since all costs or benefits are not internalized owing to positive transaction costs, policymaking is always implemented under cost underestimation conditions and, therefore, is imperfect. I call this trait policy failure in this article. Furthermore, I show that a new framework combining the social costs approach and the legal/economic approach in institutional economics is suitable and can be applied to evaluating how past policy failures affect present policy, providing as an example the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.     

An Agency Perspective on the Costs and Benefits of Privatization

This paper proposes a unified theoretical framework to discuss the costs and benefits of privatization using the recent advances of Incentive Theory. I begin by presenting a simple model in which the State (the principal) delegates a task (e.g., the production of a public good) to the private sector (the agent). I give and discuss conditions for the “Irrelevance Theorem” due to Sappington and Stiglitz [Sappington, D., & Stiglitz, J. (1987) Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 6, 567–582] to hold under complete contracting. I then show how various contract incompletenesses can make either public or private ownership optimal. Finally, I provide critical assessments of these results. I thank Patrick Rey and Wilfried Zantman for useful comments on an earlier draft. The excellent comments of two referees have also improved substantially the presentation and organization of the paper. I am deeply indebted to Denis Gromb for his extremely detailed comments.     

生态伦理观在公共经济政策中的培育与运用

生态环境危机是当今各国政府面临的重大难题,用生态伦理思想对待自然、协调入与自然之间的关系至关重要。生态伦理为公共经济政策的制订提供重要支持和参考。本文从伦理学和经济学角度阐述了生态伦理与公共经济政策的关系,提出了诸如加强生态环境法制建设、以技术创新为先导、鼓励发展潜势产业以及开征环境资源税等措施,探讨了矿区这一生态脆弱区的先进经验和有效做法,认为充分尊重并遵循生态伦理思想是新时代公共经济政策的必然选择。     

Evolutionary economics and the counterfactual threat: on the nature and role of counterfactual history as an empirical tool in economics

Counterfactual conditional statements are ubiquitous in any scientific endeavour. This paper contains an analysis of the nature of counterfactual conditionals and the conditions under which they are considered assertable by scientists. The paper then applies this analysis to the use of counterfactuals in evolutionary economics, arguing that because evolutionary economics is inherently concerned with historical processes it cannot avoid the use of counterfactual history as one of its tools of empirical analysis. We discuss the strengths and pitfalls of counterfactual history. We argue that because evolutionary economics starts from the foundation that randomness may be inherent in any economic system, the very aspects of evolutionary economics that make counterfactual history a desirable empirical tool also make that tool difficult to employ. RID="*" ID="*" We thank the participants of the International Seminar on Evolutionary Economics as a Research Programme in Stockholm, May 1997, for many helpful comments. We also thank Lorri Baier for many helpful substantive and textual comments. Correspondence to: R. Cowan