Contract equilibria in housing markets

The paper provides a contractual equilibrium model of differentiated housing markets. Within a competitive framework the existence of a contract equilibrium, respecting certain enforceability conditions, is shown. The allocation, induced by these contract equilibria in the housing markets, is possibly characterized by demand rationing, even under the assumption of free contract markets.     

Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets

This paper extends the shift-contagion concept to housing price returns in order to examine co-movements between pairs of regional housing markets in the US. It associates nonlinearities of housing prices with the monetary policy criteria at disaggregate levels. The framework with Markov-switching volatility in Gravelle et al. (Journal of International Economics 68:409–423, 2006) is utilized to investigate housing contagion phenomena which are defined as the switches in the structural transmission of common shocks across regional housing markets. The empirical results suggest that interactions between regional and nationwide housing markets switch across low-volatility and high-volatility regimes of common shocks for the Northeast and the West whose housing price returns are nonlinear. In addition, there is the significantly time-varying interdependence between the West and each of the other three regional housing markets. The estimated indicator of the monetary policy effectiveness implies that monetary policies can be effective in the Northeast and the West because they are more closely linked with other regional housing markets in volatile phases which are subject to housing crises. Noticeably, the broken interrelationships between regional housing markets and real economies in the 2001 recession imply high vulnerability to housing bubbles for regional markets, while short-term monetary policies can be effective in stabilizing the housing market turmoil around 2007.     

Owner-occupied housing in a model of exchange rate determination

This study explores the effect of owner-occupied housing asset holdings on the short and long run determination of exchange rates. In the presence of consumption goods that can simultaneously serve as investment allocation subject to capital gains—such as owner-occupied housing—the general equilibrium model, based on the Obstfeld and Rogoff Redux model, produces exchange rate overshooting both in the presence and in the absence of price rigidities in the markets for final goods. This effect depends on the size of owner-occupied housing expenditures relative to total consumption expenditures, the initial level of housing market inflation, capital gains in housing and other parameters of the model. Depending on parameter values and initial conditions, the model supports the possibility for exchange rate dynamics that include either overshooting or undershooting.     

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing markets. We fit a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to empirical housing market data for six OECD countries, US, JP, UK, NL, SE and BE. Two different estimation approaches are considered – Cobb׳s method and Euler discretization. The analysis shows that while Cobb׳s approach describes the long-run stationary density better, Euler discretization is more tailored for time series, as it provides better one-step-ahead predictions. Proceeding using the Euler discretization method we discuss the dynamics of housing markets in terms of the multiple equilibria cusp catastrophe model. By considering the long-term interest rate as an exogenous variable we obtain new insights into the policy implications of interest rate levels, in particular concerning the stability of housing markets.     

A model of rental and owner-occupied housing

A complete model of owner-occupied and rental housing is developed. The model allows for the endogenous determination of rents, the user cost of owner-occupied housing and housing tenure choice by individuals. In the short run, structure prices are endogenous, while in the long run the size of the housing stock adjusts to equate structure prices to exogenous construction costs. Comparative static results emphasize the importance of marginal tax rates and distinguishing between the short and long run for a complete understanding of the impacts of inflation on housing markets.     

Housing market dynamics

The purpose of this paper is to consider the dynamic behavior of housing markets. I first set out a model in which interest rates affect the implicit rental value of housing and indicate how the latter is related to the stock demand for housing and new construction. Using this model and the actual values of U.S. mortgage interest rates in the late 60's and 70's I then find those values of the model's parameters most consistent with fluctuations in new construction in that period. Finally, I simulate the effects of various shocks to the model.     

Housing, taxation and retirement provision

This paper considers the tax treatment of housing and the issue of savings for retirement in the context of a simplified model that still allows key aspects of the household context to be realistically represented. A model is developed in which both housing and financial assets can be used as vehicles for household saving. Individuals face perfect capital markets and choose between owner-occupied and rented accommodations. For the model developed, it is shown that the tax advantage of owner-occupied housing is not fully removed even if imputed rents are subject to income taxation. However, deferred income taxation for both housing and savings in the form of financial assets would result in an equal treatment of tenants and owner-occupiers.     

房屋共有建筑面积分摊模型研究

本文由房屋共有建筑面积的分摊原则入手,通过分析房屋的分摊关系及共有建筑面积的分摊类型,提出了一种通用的、符合《规范》及程序运算要求的共有建筑面积分摊模型,实际应用证明了该模型的实用性和有效性。     

The supply of mortgage lending

This paper estimates the elasticity of supply of mortgage lending and tests the impact of the “availability” of funds on the markets for new housing and mortgage loans. Depending upon whether mortgage relative to total lending or the mortgage, Aaa bond yield differential is taken as the left-hand variable, the supply elasticity is found to be about 1 or about 5. No compelling evidence is found, however, that either federal agency purchases of mortgages or disintermediation has had an impact upon the supply of mortgage loans. The latter is more consistent with a relatively elastic supply of mortgage funds than with segmented mortgage markets. Examination of the determinants of both real house prices and of private residential construction also fails to reveal any significant impact of federal agency purchases or of disintermediation. It would appear, however, that real house prices are highly responsive to interest rates and that the elasticity of supply of new housing is about 5. Fluctuations in new construction would thus appear to be explainable by fluctuations in interest rates.     

Wealth effect and investor sentiment

This paper investigated the relationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets as well as their influence on the wealth effect of consumption and found that the stock market sentiment index can explain changes in the wealth effect. The empirical results indicate that these two markets exert a wealth effect on consumption. The estimation results of the Markov-switching model indicate two states: a state in which the stock market influences its coexistence with the housing market and a state in which the housing and stock markets are unrelated. Public optimism regarding stock market investments affects the probability of transitioning between these states.     

New Geographies of Residential Capitalism: Financialization of the Turkish Housing Market Since the Early 2000s

The post‐2001 financial crisis era in Turkey gave rise to twin booms in housing construction and credit markets, both of which suffered from the subsequent debt crisis. The financial transformation of the economy in conjunction with state‐led urban legislation reform had significant effects on the housing market in terms of commodification of housing, countrywide construction activities and substantial increases in household debt and construction company loans. The changing role and function of the state as a direct provider of housing can be regarded as actually existing neoliberalism providing favourable conditions for financialization, as it ushered in the commodification of housing. The Turkish government, together with the government‐backed housing agency, metropolitan municipalities and publicly owned real‐estate investment company, has been active in nationwide housing construction and urban regeneration projects. This article argues that there is a lack of synchrony between the commodification of housing and the financialization of the household sector owing to the institutional setting of the mortgage system and structural macroeconomic problems. Rather, housing commodification has been accompanied by the financialization of the corporate sector through a steep rise in the external debt burden of construction companies.     

A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market

This study explores price dynamics and price relationships in the US housing market with a focus on four regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. It applies a multivariate state-space model to identify the common trends and common cycles in US regional markets. The study finds that the principal source of secular price variability in the Northeast and West markets is due to two common stochastic trends, while a large share of transitional price variability in the Northeast, West and Midwest originates from three common stochastic cycles. The study estimates the relationships between the common unobserved components and economic variables and finds that unemployment, federal funds rate, corporate default risk, economic expansion, unanticipated inflation in the construction market are significant underlying economic phenomena that impact the evolution of the common movements in both the short run and the long run housing dynamics. Authorship is equally shared between the authors.     

Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth

Differences in the supply of housing generate substantial variation in house prices across the United States. Because house prices influence migration, the elasticity of housing supply also has an important impact on local labor markets. I assemble evidence on housing supply regulations and examine their effect on metropolitan area housing and labor market dynamics. Locations with relatively few barriers to construction experience more residential construction and smaller increases in house prices in response to an increase in housing demand. Furthermore, housing supply constraints alter local employment and wage dynamics in locations where the degree of regulation is most severe.     

Existence and description of housing market equilibrium

A rental housing market with finite numbers of non-identical consumers and indivisible housing units, each composed of a vector of attributes, is studied. A partial equilibrium, open city analysis is presented in which all other commodities are perfectly divisible and elastically supplied on national markets. Sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium are rigorously established using a fixed point argument that is based on a bidding arrangement between agents. It is then shown that, although the set of equilibria is not a singleton, all equilibria are similar enough to ensure a strong resemblance between open and closed cities.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

The down-payment constraint and UK housing market: Does the theory fit the facts?

This paper considers empirical implications of the down-payment constraint for the UK housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate-level, models of the housing market with this constraint are consistent with a number of stylized facts. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets and considers how leverage affects the response of house price inflation to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993–2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high leverage (loan-to-value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model.     

我国保障房建设的PPP模式与公众参与改进

加快保障性住房建设,大幅提升保障性住房供给,可以解决由住房供给结构严重失衡引发的高房价等一系列社会和经济问题。但是由于融资渠道狭窄,我国保障房的建设推广遭遇资金瓶颈。本文在剖析PPP模式的内涵及优势的基础上,探讨了适合我国基本国情的保障性住房PPP模式的具体运作流程,并提出通过引入公众参与机制,构建政-企-民三方合作框架,改进PPP模式下保障房供给的构想,以期实现PPP融资模式在我国保障性住房建设中的推广应用。     

A probability model of the housing market based on quasi-classical considerations

This paper sets out a simple probability model for explaining locational patterns and trip-making in urban housing markets. As a prerequisite to formulating the model, the classical theory of residential location based on consumer theory is briefly outlined, and the difficulties of using such theory in an operational context are discussed. A more flexible approach, based on certain classical considerations involving rents, travel costs, and incomes is introduced and a model of the housing market is formulated using a probability-maximizing method. The model is then applied to residential location in the Reading sub-region, and tests of the model reveal that its performance in statistical terms is reasonable. In conclusion, certain possibilities for embedding the model into a more comprehensive modelling framework are explored.     

A linear programming model of the urban housing and land markets: Static and dynamic aspects

An extension of the Herbert-Stevens model is presented which incorporates the dynamic aspects of the housing market in order to simulate the filtering process. An open city is assumed with an exogenously given welfare level of the households and constant returns to scale in production. The bid-rent function can thus de defined independently of the resource allocation within the city. The maintenance policy of the landlords is endogenously determined allowing conservation, deterioration, as well as upgrading. Although the model has a normative formulation, the resulting allocation stipulates a competitive equilibrium. The model can be employed to show that discontinuous development can represent an efficient resource allocation.