Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another Look at the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement

We revisit the benefits of the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) and, in particular, evaluate the insurance value of this agreement in the face of regional and global trade wars. The insurance benefits are quantified by comparing the AUSFTA against alternative scenarios where some or all regions raise tariffs by 10 percentage points. Issues regarding expectations and the timing of potential trade wars are considered by using a dynamic model. The potential gains relative to these alternative trade war status quo scenarios are found to be as much as four times larger than the traditional efficiency gains.     

Regional Trade Agreements and Cross‐border Lobbying: Empirical Evidence from the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement Negotiations

This paper documents participation of special interest groups in negotiations of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement. Using data on the tariff reduction schedules mandated by the agreement, it shows that industries represented by strong lobby groups were faced with more favorable tariff reduction paths in both countries: phase‐out periods were longer at home and shorter in the partner country. This result provides evidence on the involvement of industry lobbying in negotiation of regional trade agreements and suggests that countries negotiating trade agreements are responsive to the interests of lobbying groups from across the border. Both results provide important implications for the political economy theory of trade agreements.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Australia

Australia is a recipient of large foreign direct investment (FDI) flows by world standards. Despite this, there is little empirical work on the determinants of FDI in Australia. We carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of aggregate FDI inflows into Australia since the mid-1980s. We find that interest rates, wage changes, a measure of the openness of the economy and a variable representing industrial disputes are important determinants of FDI inflow into Australia over the period. The estimated model successfully explains within-sample variability but this success is greater in the beginning of the sample than at the end.     

外国直接投资与我国国际贸易困境

近年来，我国与其他国家特别是美国贸易摩擦日益增多，已影响到我国出口贸易的增长。本文分析表明，外国直接投资在促进我国贸易增长和经济增长的同时，也成为我国国际贸易摩擦产生的一个重要原因。以东亚为主且偏向于劳动密集型的外国投资使得我国成为东亚跨国公司的出口平台，增加了我国与其他国家发生贸易冲突的可能。这种现象的产生既有其国际背景，又有着国内政策取向的原因，因此调整我国的外国直接     

国际贸易与对外直接投资互补关系的一种解释

以垂直型跨国企业为研究对象,假定中间产品贸易仅以跨国企业内部贸易的形式实现,这样,企业对外直接投资的决策,必然导致中间产品和最终产品贸易的增加,显示了对外投资与贸易之间的互补关系。这种互补关系的基础在于,FDI对企业水平规模经济、外部经济和动态规模经济的影响,简单的实例提供了一种经验证据。     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

The effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on Canadian multilateral trade liberalization

In this paper show that the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) tariff preferences have triggered a decline in Canadian external tariffs, explaining a two percentage point reduction in the average tariff between 1989 and 1998. Next, we found that industries that generate the least export rent to the US firms experienced deeper tariff cuts in Canada; this result provides evidence of cooperation in trade policies between the US and Canada. Finally, we estimate the effect of the CUSFTA on the intensity of industrial lobbying for trade policy in Canada and find no relationship between preferential trade liberalization and lobbying activity.     

Trade Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Convergence

This paper examines the hypothesis that countries which pursue export-promoting (EP) policies are much more likely to converge than countries which pursue import-substituting (IS) policies. The hypothesis is tested statistically in the context of a sample of developing countries which have in the recent past pursued inward-looking or outward-looking or export-promotion (EP) policies. The empirical eviddence supports the hypothesis EP countries converge at approximately 1.9% per annum, while IS countries converge at approximately 0.9% per annum.     

US Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: Strategy and Policy Issues

East Asian trade and investment policies have attracted US investment into the region, but these policies should be fine-tuned for the region to compete effectively for US investment inflow and increase their global share of US foreign direct investment. The changes should consider the needs of the US investors and East Asia's own economic development. Bilateral free trade agreements with the US are the likely channel for these changes, but the question is whether East Asia is ready for a comprehensive and deep liberalization. East Asia should work toward a regional investment policy framework to facilitate and expand the regional production network developed by the US foreign direct investment.     

Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada – United States Free Trade Agreement

In this paper the changes in trade patterns introduced by the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement are examined. Variation in the extent of tariff liberalization under the agreement is used to identify the impact of tariff liberalization on the growth of trade both with member countries and non-member countries. Data at the commodity level are used, and the results indicate that the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement had substantial trade creation effects, with little evidence of trade diversion. JEL Classification: F13, F14
Création de commerce et diversion de commerce dans l'Accord de libre-échange Canada-U.S. Ce mémoire examine les changements dans les patterns de commerce international engendrés par l'Accord de libre-échange entre la Canada et les Etats-Unis. La variation dans l'intensité de libéralisation tarifaire selon les secteurs dans l'Accord est utilisée pour identifier l'impact de la libéralisation tarifaire sur la croissance du commerce à la fois entre les pays membres et avec les pays non-membres. A l'aide de données par produits, on montre que l'Accord a eu des effets substantiels de création de commerce mais qu'il n'y a pas lieu de croire qu'il y a eu beaucoup de diversion de commerce.     

中国出口贸易与对外直接投资关系的实证分析

根据母国或跨国公司投资的动机类型和发展阶段的不同,出口贸易与对外直接投资之间存在着三种关系:替代、互补和融合.本文在对对外直接投资与贸易关系的理论回顾的基础上,分别对发达国家和发展中国家出口贸易与对外直接投资关系进行了实证研究,并结合中国对外直接投资与贸易的实际,按公司投资的动机、类型、行业和发展阶段分析并论证对外直接投资与出口贸易的关系.同时,也证明了政府给予具有贸易创造能力的对外直接投资在政策上大力支持的必要性.     

外商直接投资对我国货物贸易收支影响分析

改革开放以来,我国的对外贸易发展迅速,货物贸易收支的状况发生了巨大的变化文章在回顾分析我国吸引外商投资的基础上,较为深入地分析了外商直接投资对货物收支的影响,并进一步提出了相关的政策建设。     

外商直接投资对我国对外贸易方式影响的实证分析

本文对 1 985 - 2 0 0 1年间 ,FDI与我国对外贸易方式的关系进行了相关分析 ,结果证明FDI与我国对外贸易方式的变化显著相关 ;接着分析了该现象形成的原因 ,最后指出了我国在利用FDI方面需要注意的一些问题。     

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Poland's Trade with the European Union

Over 75% of FDI in Poland originates from the EU. The EU also predominates in the exports and imports of FDI companies. The objective of this article is to examine whether FDI is likely to replace trade or to create new trade flows. In particular, the article shows the influence of FDI on Poland's trade with the EU. The FDI impact on Polish trade can be seen as its contribution to export creation. Moreover, externalities caused by trade and FDI inflow are influencing Polish specialisation patterns, which is important in the process of integrating the economy into the world market.     

Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on US foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to a sample of 16 emerging market countries using annual panel data for the period 1990–2002. Three separate exchange rate effects are considered: the value of the local currency (a cheaper currency attracts FDI); expected changes in the exchange rate (expected devaluation implies FDI is postponed); and exchange rate volatility (discourages FDI). The results reveal a negative relationship between FDI and more expensive local currency, the expectation of local currency depreciation, and volatile exchange rates. Stable exchange rate management can be important in attracting FDI.     

国际贸易与国际直接投资的关系及我国对策选择

近年来,国际贸易和国际直接投资出现了融合的趋势.我国1983～2003年间有关国际贸易和国际直接投资的统计数据也证实了两者的融合程度正在增强.基于这一情况,我国的对外开放应有新思路,在投资和贸易流程方面进行创新,采取最优的国际经济资源转换政策,实施均衡发展战略.     

FDI与出口贸易关系的协整分析——基于陕西省1985-2006年数据的实证研究

随着经济全球化的日益深化和西部大开发战略的实施,外商直接投资对陕西省出口贸易起着越来越重要的作用。本文运用协整方法和误差修正模型分析外商直接投资和陕西出口贸易之间的关系,得出了外商直接投资和陕西出口贸易之间存在着长期稳定的正相关关系,而且它们之间的短期偏离会向长期均衡调整的结论,最后提出了几点启示和政策建议,希望对陕西省外资引导政策的制定具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Investor Expectations and the North American Free Trade Agreement

The paper uses a stock market event study to examine investors' expectations of NAFTA's effect on the profitability of manufacturing industries in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The main finding is that factor intensity, specifically a measure of the industry–wide labor–capital ratio, is the most significant determinant of excess returns. The results suggest that investors believed the NAFTA would favor industries that used abundant factors intensively and reduce profitability in industries that relied heavily on scarce factors; and, more generally, that factor intensity is a primary source of comparative advantage. No significant relationship was found between the relative scale of industries among the three countries and the NAFTA's expected influence on profitability.     

外商直接投资再创新高

<正> 中国“入世”的第一年,我国利用外商直接投资更加保持了较高的增长势头,据外经贸部统计,今年1至6月全国新批设立外商投资企业15155家,比去年同期增长26.39％;合同外资金额439.9亿美元,同比增长31.47％;实际使用外资金额245.79亿美元,同比增长18.69％。截至今年6月底,全国累计批准外商投资企业405180家,合同利用外资金额7892.81亿美元,实际使用外资金额4198.02亿美元。主要指标分析 1.增长幅度较大。在2001年我国利用外资进入恢复性增长及中国加入世贸组织后的半年时间里,外商直接投资以前所未有的速度和规模涌入中国。2002年1～6月我国利用     

Morocco and the US Free Trade Agreement: A specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports

This paper examines the impact in Morocco of its pending free trade agreement with the US in a specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports. Projected price scenarios across eight industries lead to adjustments in outputs, energy imports, rural wages, urban wages, and the unemployment rate. The model predicts substantial adjustments for reasonable price scenarios. Rural wages fall unless agriculture is subsidized. Unemployment, assumed inversely related to output, is sensitive to price changes. Factor substitution only affects the degree of output adjustments. Adjustments in capital returns lead to industrial investment and subsequent long run output adjustments.