Financial stress and economic contractions

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil in advanced economies using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress – in particular banking distress – on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with deeper and longer downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arm's-length financial systems seem to be more exposed to contractions in activity following financial stress, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.     

Exploring the nexus between financial sector reforms and the emergence of digital banking culture – Evidences from a developing country

Several financial and banking sector reform programs were instituted in different countries over the last three decades. The underlining purpose of these reforms was largely to improve banking sector supervision and regulation, introduce bank privatization mechanism, introduce clearance and settlement systems, infuse competition and to stimulate financial innovation. The objectives of this study are to 1) review the relevant published literature and market survey reports on the financial & banking sector reforms undertaken in Pakistan and elsewhere, 2) analyze how these reform programs develop digital banking culture and increase financial inclusion in the country and 3) guide future research by putting forward a research agenda. The findings of the study suggest a link between the financial and banking sector reforms and the stimulation of financial innovation; the promotion of digital banking culture; and the infusion of financial inclusion in Pakistan. We discuss managerial/policy implications of the study, limitations and presents recommendations for future research.     

Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial development

This study assesses the effect of time-dynamic financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in 53 African countries for the period 2000–2011. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. The following findings are established. First, financial globalisation uncertainty does not significantly affect money supply, financial system deposits and financial size. Second, the uncertainty increases banking system efficiency, banking system activity and financial system activity. Moreover, the positive effects are consistently driven by above-median uncertainty levels. It follows that uncertainty in foreign capital flows may be a disguised advantage for domestic financial development, especially in dealing with the substantially documented issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions. Additionally, the sceptical view in the financial globalisation literature that ‘allocation efficiency’ is only plausible in the absence of uncertainty/instability is not substantiated by the findings. Justifications for the nexuses and policy implications are discussed.     

从全球金融危机看我国银行业金融创新的进一步发展问题

金融创新是国际银行业发展的持续动力,随着我国银行业改革开放的深化,我国商业银行对金融创新的重视和参与程度也越来越高。但是此次全球金融危机却反映出国际银行业在创新过程中的一些严重问题,为我国银行业金融创新提供了一些启示。本文对国际银行业近年来的金融创新进行了反思,总结了我国银行业金融创新的现状,并对我国银行业金融创新的进一步发展提出了建议。     

新形势下金融服务贸易出口策略探讨

世界贸易自由化和我国金融业的开放给我国金融机构发展和金融服务的出口提供了良好的机遇.本文对金融服务出口的目前的形势做了较全面的分析,指出了限制我国金融服务贸易发展的问题,并针对这些问题提出了相应的扩大金融服务出口的对策.希望对金融机构制定金融服务出口策略有所帮助.     

Overview on the recent developments of banking and risk management

This note aims at focusing at the recent developments in banking and risk management with a particular focus on empirical analyses about banks’ regulation and financial risk. It notably describes a financial atmosphere whereby, in response to the US subprime mortgage crisis and the continuing stress in financial markets, policymakers developed alternative monetary policies and regulators pursued different reforms and new regulations to overcome the effects of this crisis. To better understand these different changes and reforms, this note presents the 9 best articles selected from the second International Workshop on Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics (Paris, June 4–5, 2015, www.fmnd.fr) that focused on these topics. Interestingly, through these different contributions, this special issue has developed new insights about methodologies and quantitative risk management techniques that assess the effects of the financial crisis, explain its different challenges, and suggest some solutions.     

Cross-border interbank networks,banking risk and contagion

Recent events have highlighted the role of cross-border linkages between banking systems in transmitting local developments across national borders. This paper analyzes whether international linkages in interbank markets affect the stability of interconnected banking systems and channel financial distress within a network consisting of banking systems of the main advanced countries for the period 1994–2012. Methodologically, I use a spatial modeling approach to test for spillovers in cross-border interbank markets. The results suggest that foreign exposures in banking play a significant role in channeling banking risk: I find that countries that are linked through foreign borrowing or lending positions to more stable banking systems abroad are significantly affected by positive spillover effects. From a policy point of view, this implies that in stable times, linkages in the banking system can be beneficial, while they have to be taken with caution in times of financial turmoil affecting the whole system.     

银行综合经营财务效应实证研究

本轮金融危机后,美国沃克尔法则的提出引发了金融界强烈的争议,对银行综合经营问题的探讨具有了新的时代意义。本文采用美国资产10亿美元以上的约70家一级银行控股公司2000年到2009年的季度财务数据,对综合经营实际财务效应进行了实证研究,验证了银行综合经营对于银行控股公司资本利润率的增长的确存在正面的影响,但这种影响可能被银行非利息收入占比提高的负面影响抵销。     

Financial markets development,business cycles,and bank risk in South America

In this paper, we examine whether banking crises or business cycles affect the influence of financial markets development on bank risk in a sample of 37 publicly listed commercial banks in seven South American countries over a 22-year period between 1991 and 2012. Banking crises in this region offer a natural setting in which the impact of financial markets development on bank risk is examined. We find that financial markets development improves banks’ capitalization ratio and reduces their exposure to non-traditional banking activities, suggesting that financial markets development on average reduces bank risk. In addition, banking crises and business cycles appear to moderate the impact of financial markets development on bank risk. In the aftermath of banking crises, banks appear to concentrate more on their core traditional banking activities.     

影子银行体系的脆弱性、监管改革及对我国的启示

影子银行体系的超常规发展和信用扩张,是全球金融危机爆发的重要原因之一。本文对影子银行体系的内涵、运作特点和崩溃原因开展研究,分析危机后西方主要国家的金融监管改革举措,并结合中国影子银行体系的现状,提出有助于我国金融体系发展的启示与建议。     

中国金融市场化与开放进程对银行效率的影响研究——基于DEA的Malmquist指数方法

本文一方面结合我国金融市场化与开放进程的沿革路径,构建中国金融自由化指数;另一方面采用非参数的数据包络分析方法计算Malmquist指数,以此来衡量银行效率。在此基础上,我们对中国金融自由化进程与银行效率的内在关联展开计量分析。研究发现,伴随着中国金融市场化与开放政策的渐近推进和逐步深化,中国银行业的整体效率有了明显的改善。这其中受益良多的是股份制商业银行,而国有商业银行的效率虽有所改善,但成效并不明显。     

The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis

Extensive regulatory changes and technological advances have transformed banking systems to a great extent. Banks have reacted to the challenges posed by the new operating environment by creating new products and expanding their activities to some uncharted business areas. In this paper, we study how modern banking which gave birth to the off-balance-sheet leverage activities affected the risk profile of U.S. banks as well as the level of systemic risk before and after the onset of the late 2000s financial crisis. Towards this, we separate on- from off-balance-sheet leverage and capture the latter with different, yet complementary, measures which do not exist in the current literature. Special attention is paid on the deleveraging process that occurred in the banking market after the crisis erupted, which is an additional innovative feature of this study. Our findings reveal that leverage, both explicit and hidden off-the-balance-sheet, increases the individual risk of banking firms making them vulnerable to financial shocks. Reverse leverage, on the other hand, is beneficial for individual banks’ health, but is found to be harmful for financial stability. We also demonstrate that the banks which concentrate on traditional lines of business typically carry less risk compared to those involved with modern financial instruments.     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

How does corporate social responsibility affect financial performance,financial stability,and financial inclusion in the banking sector? Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the financial performance, financial inclusion, and financial stability of the banking sector, focusing on annual data for 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2008–2017. The results suggest that CSR, as well as age and size, has a positive impact on all three factors. However, high levels of leverage reduce financial inclusion and financial stability, while financial inclusion is also negatively associated with the tangibility of assets.     

银行业涉农金融服务的现状、问题及建议——以吉林省辽源市为例

为适应新形势下农村经济和社会发展变化,不断满足农村多层次、多元化的金融服务需求,吉林省辽源市银行业不断加大涉农信贷资金投放,为促进农业发展、农民增收提供了有力的金融支持。本文概述了辽源市银行业涉农金融服务的现状,总结了存在的问题和困难,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Does financial connectedness predict crises?

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial interconnectedness—a possible source of systemic risk—can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper, we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises during the 1978–2010 period. Our results indicate that increases in a country’s own connectedness and decreases in its neighbours’ connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. Our findings suggest that financial interconnectedness has early warning potential, especially for the 2007–2010 wave of systemic banking crises.     

影子银行的发展及其监管

自上个世纪末以来,影子银行快速发展,资产规模已接近传统银行体系。影子银行的风险被认为是造成2008年全球金融危机的重要原因,各国和国际金融机构近年纷纷出台加强影子银行监管的措施,试图改变过去监管缺失的状态。和国外影子银行以资产证券化为核心不同,我国影子银行的主要功能是作为融资渠道。因此,我国要借鉴国外影子发展和监管的经验,正确看待影子银行的作用,引导其规范发展并将其作为银行体系的有益补充。     

银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响——来自工业企业的经验证据

本文在充分考虑中国信贷市场本地竞争特征的基础上,利用手工收集的商业银行分支机构独特数据构造了城市层面的银行业市场结构指标,并将其与2002-2007年中国工业企业数据库进行合并构造基础数据库,考察了银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响。研究发现:首先,一个更具竞争性的银行业市场结构显著提高了企业生产率,这支持了银行业市场结构的“市场力量假说”;其次,从影响机制来看,一个更具竞争性的银行业市场结构更有利于缓解企业面临的融资约束;最后,银行业市场结构对企业生产率的影响在那些面临更多融资约束的企业中更为显著,小企业、非国有企业、新企业和高技术行业的企业从银行业竞争中获益更大。