Bank risk in uncertain times: Do credit rationing and revenue diversification matter?

We show that bank risk rises, particularly for larger banks and those with greater interest-sensitive liabilities, during times of economic policy uncertainty through two economic channels: “credit rationing” and “revenue diversification.” The credit rationing channel shows that economic policy uncertainty increases aggregate loan spreads, exacerbating both adverse selection and moral hazard problems leading to higher bank risk. The revenue diversification channel suggests that as economic policy uncertainty reduces bank profits from traditional interest-based products, banks diversify into other non-traditional activities, thereby increasing their instability. Overall, our findings highlight the impact of economic policy uncertainty on exacerbating bank risk.     

Bank efficiency and foreign ownership: Do good institutions matter?

This paper contributes to the literature on foreign ownership and bank efficiency by examining whether the efficiency of foreign banks depends on the institutional quality of the host country and on institutional differences between the home and host country. Using stochastic frontier analysis for a sample of 2095 commercial banks in 105 countries for the years 1998–2003, we find that foreign ownership negatively affects bank efficiency. However, in countries with good governance this negative effect is less pronounced. We also find that higher quality of the institutions in the home country and higher similarity between home and host country institutional quality reduce foreign bank inefficiency.     

Does conglomeration really reduce credit risk?

I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case.     

Trust and affect: how do they impact risk information seeking in a health context?

This study examines college students’ intention to seek information about the H1N1 flu vaccine. We specifically focused on the relationship between trust and affect and whether they work together to influence risk information seeking. Results indicated that positive affect moderated the relationship between trust and information seeking, but negative affect did not. While both positive affect and negative affect influenced risk information seeking, when combined with trust, only positive affect remained as a significant predictor. These results suggest that by understanding the role that trust and affect play, medical professionals and disease control agencies can tailor their communication efforts to increase an individual’s intention to seek information about preventive measures. Specifically, maintaining the public’s trust and positive feelings toward these entities is key to successful communication about prevention measures such as vaccination.     

Systemic risk in non financial companies: Does governance matter?

The paper investigates the impact of four key corporate governance mechanisms - board, audit, compensation and ownership, and anti-takeover provisions - on the exposure and contribution to systemic risk of >400 US non-financial companies (NFCs) listed in S&P500 from 2005 to 2020. Our results show that in NFCs, unlike in banks, good corporate governance practices constrain both systemic risk exposure and contribution. We find a complementary effect between internal corporate governance mechanisms in reducing both the contribution and the exposure to systemic risk, and a substitution effect between internal and external governance practices in constraining the exposure of NFCs to systemic risk. Moreover, strong corporate governance practices are shown to constrain systemic risk both in steady-state conditions and in times of distress.     

Bank Ownership and Lending: Does Bank Ownership Matter?

Using the Central and Eastern European (CEE) bank-level data covering 2004–12, this article examines the differences in foreign-owned banks’ loan growth and its determinants in comparison with privately-owned domestic banks. The results indicate the greatest differences in the context of bank capital and liquidity. Bank capital remains an important loan growth determinant only for domestic private banks during the non-crisis periods and bank liquidity is of greater importance to domestic private banks during the crisis periods. This highlights local regulatory authorities’ limited ability to harness loan growth and excessive risk-taking during the non-crisis periods and points at the benefits of multinational banking groups’ internal capital markets during the crisis periods.     

Does idiosyncratic risk matter in IPO long-run performance?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper studies how firm-level idiosyncratic risk varies over time and affects both initial public offering (IPO) and matched non-IPO firms’...     

Bank ownership and stock price informativeness. Does politics matter?

This study investigates the effects of ownership on the informativeness of the stock prices of 636 commercial banks from 59 countries for 2002–2014. We find strong and robust evidence that state ownership is associated with stock prices having less information in developing countries. This result is consistent with the conjecture that state ownership is associated with a less transparent environment that discourages investors from trading on private information. Furthermore, we find that politics magnifies the effect of state ownership on the informativeness of stock prices during election years. In particular, we show that stock prices are less informative for state ownership in countries with civil law or parliamentary systems. These findings shows that the political channel plays an important role in determining the expropriation by government shareholders, especially in developing countries.     

Corruption and innovation in private firms: Does gender matter?

In this study, we examine whether bribery impairs gender-based asymmetries in product/process innovation in developing economies. Based on firm-level data from Latin American countries, we reject the proposition that women behave differently with respect to bribing on the grounds of higher ethical/moral standards. After controlling for endogeneity and non-random treatment effects, we find that, in line with the Differential association and opportunity (DAO) theory, women in positions of influence (i.e., firm ownership and top management) are equally associated with firm-level bribing. Furthermore, the results indicate that women receive, on average, a greater payoff from bribing compared to male counterparts. At a practical level for firms wishing to innovate, the question of how to gain maximum advantage from each peso paid in bribes becomes an interesting amoral exercise. Our study reveals that promoting women into high-level positions on the basis of their superior morality is an ill-conceived presumption, which is not supported empirically.     

Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?

We explore the impact of large banks and of financial openness for aggregate growth. Large banks matter because of granular effects: if markets are very concentrated in terms of the size distribution of banks, idiosyncratic shocks at the bank-level do not cancel out in the aggregate but can affect macroeconomic outcomes. Financial openness may affect GDP growth in and of itself, and it may also influence concentration in banking and thus the impact of bank-specific shocks for the aggregate economy. To test these relationships, we use different measures of de jure and de facto financial openness in a panel dataset for 79 countries and the years 1996–2009. Our research has three main findings: First, bank-level shocks significantly impact upon GDP. Second, financial openness tends to lower GDP growth. Third, granular effects tend to be stronger in financially closed economies.     

Bank size and macroeconomic shock transmission: Does the credit channel operate through large or small banks?

In this paper, I use U.S. call report data to construct a larger panel dataset with bank-level observations. I find that larger banks' lending is considerably more sensitive to the strength of their borrowers' and their own balance sheets compared to smaller banks and that the sensitivities to borrower balance sheets are larger in magnitude compared to lender balance sheets. When I incorporate various macroeconomic shocks (identified by an estimated DSGE model) into the empirical model, I similarly find that the transmission of shocks to the real economy operates mostly through large bank lending and borrower balance sheets.     

Does risk disclosure in prospectus matter in ChiNext IPOs’ initial underpricing?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Using a unique and hand-collected dataset, we investigate the impact of the risk factors disclosed in the prospectuses on the initial returns for...     

Disclosure quality vis-à-vis disclosure quantity: Does audit committee matter in Omani financial institutions?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine the impact of audit committee (AC) characteristics (e.g. AC foreign members, AC female members, AC members with multiple directorships, AC...     

Does firm visibility matter to debtholders? Evidence from credit ratings

This paper investigates the role of a firm's information visibility in the assessment of its default risk. We use press coverage to proxy for firm visibility and find that highly visible firms generally have better credit ratings. The positive association between firm visibility and credit ratings arises because (1) press coverage facilitates the generation and dissemination of firm-specific information to market participants and (2) it disciplines the activities of managers and large shareholders. This positive association becomes stronger for firms with more severe information asymmetry or weaker alternative monitoring systems. Our findings contribute to the accounting literature by providing new evidence on the influence of firm visibility in the debt market.     

Does adding up of economic capital for market- and credit risk amount to conservative risk assessment?

There is a tradition in the banking industry of dividing risk into market risk and credit risk. Both categories are treated independently in the calculation of risk capital. But many financial positions depend simultaneously on both market risk and credit risk factors. In this case, an approximation of the portfolio value function separating value changes into a pure market risk plus pure credit risk component can result not only in an overestimation, but also in an underestimation of risk. We discuss this compounding effect in the context of foreign currency loans and argue that a separate calculation of economic capital for market risk and for credit risk may significantly underestimate true risk.     

Income diversification and risk: Does ownership matter? An empirical examination of Indian banks

We examine the impact of ownership on income diversification and risk for Indian banks over the period 2001–2009. We investigate both the determinants of non-interest income and the impact of diversification on various profitability and insolvency risk measures for public sector, private domestic, and foreign banks. We document that ownership does matter in the pursuit of non-interest income. Relative to private domestic banks, public sector banks earn significantly less fee-income, while foreign banks report higher fee income. Public sector banks with higher levels of governmental ownership are significantly less likely to pursue non-interest income sources. Fee-based income significantly reduces risk, measured by profitability variables, for public sector banks. Default risk is also reduced for these banks. From a regulatory perspective, it appears that diversification benefits India’s public sector banks. Our research has implications for the changes in the risk profile for banks in emerging banking markets pursuing non-interest revenue sources.     

Does carbon risk matter for corporate acquisition decisions?

In this study, we examine whether carbon risk matters in acquisitions. Using a firm's carbon emissions to proxy for carbon risk, we examine whether an acquirer's level of carbon emissions is related to the decision to engage in acquisitions and achieve subsequent acquisition returns. The results show that firms with higher emissions have an increased likelihood of acquiring foreign targets while, at the same time, having a decreased likelihood of acquiring domestic targets. Acquirers with large carbon footprints seek out targets in foreign countries that have low gross domestic product (GDP) or weak environmental, regulatory, or governance standards. We also examine the relationship between carbon emissions and announcement returns. We find that cross-border acquisition announcement returns are higher when acquirers with high carbon emissions acquire targets in countries with fewer regulations or weaker environmental standards. Focusing on the interplay of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and carbon emissions, we find that investors censure acquirers that promote CSR while also having high carbon emissions, thus resulting in worse abnormal returns. This is particularly the case if the target country is wealthy or has stronger country governance or strong environmental protection. Our findings add insight on the channels through which a focus on reducing carbon risk can add value for shareholders.     

Currency hedging for single-currency equity portfolios: Does cross-asset risk matter?

Foreign investors who are fully invested in a single-currency domestic equity portfolio are exposed to domestic equity risk, but also to currency risk. The standard approach to hedging the currency risk optimally is to estimate a single optimal hedge ratio, but this approach hedges only exchange rate risk, not cross-asset risk. We provide an alternative approach that estimates two optimal hedge ratios to adjust the currency exposures—one associated with the domestic currency and one associated with the foreign currency—and hedges both exchange rate risk and cross-asset risk. This alternative approach can significantly reduce risk.     

Does the accruals quality premium arise from information risk?

In this study, we examine whether the accruals quality premium arises from information risk through the following: (i) an investigation of the accruals quality (AQ) premium conditioned by market competition levels; (ii) a test of the impact of an exogenous shock on tax‐loss‐selling incentives; and (iii) an examination of the quality of specific accruals. Consistent with an information risk explanation, we find that the pricing effect of AQ is concentrated in firms with low market competition; that tax‐loss selling is unlikely to explain the observed AQ premium; and that specific accruals quality measures which are more likely to reflect information risk are priced.