Intertemporal price–quality discrimination and the Coase conjecture

We examine time-consistent intertemporal price–quality discrimination by a durable goods monopolist, when there are a continuum of buyer demand-intensities with respect to product quality, and it is profitable for the monopolist to trade with the marginal buyer-type (i.e., the “gap” case). We show that along every subgame perfect equilibrium path, with probability 1, prices and qualities decline over time, and the market is completely and monotonically depleted according to buyer-type in a finite number of offers. But, unlike the fixed quality literature, the monopolist may randomize over price–quality offers along the equilibrium path. We also show that the Coase conjecture continues to be valid here, but in a form that is significantly different from the usual formulation. In the limit, as the time between offers evaporates, the monopolist makes a continuum of offers and perfectly screens the market. However, he effectively cannot price-discriminate, because the equilibrium profits converge to the complete “pooling” profits that would be made if the entire market had the marginal buyer-type’s valuation.     

Are Austrian returns to education falling over time?

In this paper, we make a systematic presentation of returns to education in Austria for the period 1981–1997. We use consistent cross-sections from the Mikrozensus and find falling returns over time. These falling returns are neither caused by changes in the sample design and reduced willingness to reveal personal incomes in the survey, nor by a declining quality of education. Moreover, it is shown that especially returns to tertiary and secondary education have fallen. Estimating quantile regressions provides further interesting insights: returns fall for all quantiles alike, but the spread of returns is much lower for females. The overall picture of falling returns is consistent with a rise in the supply of highly educated workers in the last two decades.     

Capital–labor substitution and equilibrium indeterminacy

This paper examines the quantitative relationship between the elasticity of capital–labor substitution in production and the conditions needed for equilibrium indeterminacy (and belief-driven fluctuations) in a one-sector growth model. With variable capital utilization, the substitution elasticity has little quantitative impact on the minimum degree of increasing returns needed for indeterminacy. However, when capital utilization is constant, a below-unity substitution elasticity sharply raises the minimum degree of increasing returns because it imposes a higher effective adjustment cost on labor hours. Overall, our results show that empirically-plausible departures from the Cobb–Douglas production specification can make indeterminacy more difficult to achieve.     

Multiple equilibria model with intrafirm bargaining and matching frictions

In this paper, we combine a matching model derived from Pissarides (2000) in the case of large firms with monopolistic competition on the product market and the model of intrafirm bargaining à la Stole and Zwiebel (1996). Moreover, we allow for increasing returns to scale in the aggregate production function leading to multiple equilibria. We study the dynamics of such a framework and propose numerical simulations. We show that labour market regulation can make unlikely the occurrence of the Pareto inferior equilibrium and that product market deregulation can have an effect on employment contrary to the expected result when the economy stands at this equilibrium. We give also some policy recommendations to reach the Pareto superior equilibrium when multiple equilibria exist.     

Economics of total quality management

This paper presents two models of the economics of total quality management. In the first, the concept of quality management is viewed as a technological innovation that requires investment. To reduce cost and improve quality, firms must make investments that are largely sunk. The effect of market competition on quality related technology investments is studied. Several results follow. With new quality technologies, price falls, quality rises and average cost declines. Firms must anticipate rivals' technology choices and the market prices when justifying quality technology investments. When all firms quickly adopt quality technology, returns of such investments are normal, that is, have a zero net present value. However, firms that do not invest in quality related technology are forced from the market. A firm that is faced by competitors that are slow to adopt quality related technology, can earn positive returns by early adoption. The firm invests more in quality related technology, and produces higher quality products, charges a higher price and earns higher profits than competitors. The firm's quality, price and profit advantages persist over time. In the second model, we show that firm value increases when customer satisfaction is used as an objective by aligning incentives. This explains the common use of customer satisfaction measures in TQM programs.     

Does it Pay to Work for Free? Negative Selection and the Wage Returns to Volunteer Experience

This paper offers the first instrumental variables estimates of the wage returns to volunteer experience. The returns are substantial and differ considerably by gender. The results imply that the unequal valuation of volunteer experience by gender is more important in explaining the gender earnings gap than is the unequal valuation of part‐time paid work experience. The results also indicate negative selection into unpaid work. In a simple model of optimal volunteering, negative selection implies that a lower cost of volunteering would produce both an expanded and higher‐skilled pool of volunteers, and greater societal benefits from volunteer work.     

Pricing To Signal Product Line Quality

This paper offers a general characterization of the optimal product line prices for a monopolist whose quality of products is initially unknown to consumers. In the focal equilibrium, a monopolist signals a high-quality product line by pricing as if quality were known to be high, but costs of production were higher than they truly are. In a rich set of environments, this characterization implies that the prices of all products are initially distorted upward, with the price distortion being largest for products with the most inelastic demands and/or quality-sensitive production costs. These implications yield predictions for the time path of prices flint are broadly consistent with evidence from the marketing literature. The multidimensional signaling problem is made tractable by the satisfaction of a very simple and powerful single crossing property.     

EVENT STUDY METHODS AND EVIDENCE ON THEIR PERFORMANCE

Abstract. The paper outlines widely used methods of estimating abnormal returns and testing their significance, highlights respects in which they differ conceptually, and reviews research comparing results they produce in various empirical contexts. Direct evidence on the performance of different methods is available from simulation experiments in which known levels of abnormal return are added. The market model is most commonly used to generate expected returns and no better alternative has yet been found despite the weak relationship between beta and actual returns. Choice of procedure for significance testing depends on the characteristics of the data. The evidence indicates that in many cases the best procedure is to standardise market model abnormal returns by their time series standard errors of regression and use the t -test. Alternatively a rank test appears to be at least as powerful. If errors are cross-correlated or increase in variance during the test period, other methods discussed should be used.     

Tradability,closeness to market prices,and expected profit: their measurement for a binomial model of options pricing in a heterogeneous market

A reliable method of options pricing in real time would help various players, including hedgers and speculators, to make informed decisions. In this study, we develop an extensive simulation with multiple business environments, which includes the use of real data from the S&P 500 Index between the years 2010–2017 for the 30 days prior to expiration of the options. Forecasted tradability is computed based on the SH model: a theoretical model of real-time options pricing that takes into account players’ heterogeneity with regard to their willingness to accept offers proposed by the opposing player. The quality of the model is examined for the scenario in which the model players are speculators who act against the real market prices. We show that the equilibrium prices predicted by the SH model are close to the market prices (a deviation of up to approx. 3%) in an In-The-Money environment. Additionally, the tougher the players (i.e., the greater their level of unwillingness to accept a bid from the opposing player), the higher the average tradability. We also find that the level of willingness of the players has a greater effect on tradability than does option moneyness or the market trend.

     

A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy

This paper develops a portfolio approach to modeling endogenous growth in continuous time that is especially suitable for addressing fiscal and financial issues in policy design. The analysis focuses on the equilibrium relationship between fiscal and financial policy, rates of return and wealth allocation. We analyze two models. The first is based on the Arrow-Romer model with increasing returns and an external effect of capital on labor productivity. The second draws on Barro's analysis of government spending and endogenous growth. In both models, we study the equilibrium allocation and discuss the optimal fiscal and financial policy.     

Event-study evidence of the value of relaxing long-standing regulatory restraints on banks, 1970–2000

In a partial-equilibrium model, removing a binding constraint creates value. However, in general equilibrium, the stakes of other parties in maintaining the constraint must be examined. In financial deregulation, the fear is that expanding the scope and geographic reach of very large institutions might unblock opportunities to build market power from informational advantages and size-related safety-net subsidies.This paper reviews and extends event-study evidence about the distribution of the benefits and costs of relaxing long-standing geographic and product-line restrictions on U.S. financial institutions. The evidence indicates that the new financial freedoms may have redistributed rather than created value. Event returns are positive for some sectors of the financial industry and negative for others. Perhaps surprisingly, where customer event returns have been investigated, they prove negative.     

A two-region model with two types of manufacturing technologies and agglomeration

A two-region model is proposed in this paper. Manufactured goods can be produced with cottage technology under constant returns to scale or with modern technology using differentiated intermediate goods, which are produced with increasing returns to scale technology. In the model, there may be multiple equilibria, and, in such cases, the initial conditions determine the equilibrium that the economy reaches. It is shown that strong increasing returns due to specialization and low transportation costs bring about industrialization with agglomeration. This framework explains the mechanism behind the different industrialization process in Japan and in less developed countries.     

Existence of competitive equilibrium under financial constraints and increasing returns

This paper studies a ‘factor cost in advance’ model with increasing returns in production. In the model both partial equilibrium and general equilibrium may exist since working capital of firms limit their input demand. We provide a sufficient condition for the existence of partial equilibrium of a firm operating on a non-convex choice set. Furthermore we establish the existence and uniqueness of competitive equilibrium in the special case of logarithmic utility.     

On existence in equilibrium models with endogenous default

The equilibrium concept defined by Dubey et al. ,  and  generates equilibria such that asset buyers could raise expected returns by paying more for the assets that they purchase. A simple example shows that, in fact, all equilibria may be return-dominated in that sense. Universal existence in the DGS model thus depends critically on the assumption that lenders are unable to exploit an obvious profit opportunity.     

Relationship between oil,stock prices and exchange rates: A vine copula based GARCH method

In this paper, we apply a vine copula approach to investigate the dynamic relationship between energy, stock and currency markets. Dependence modeling using vine copulas offers a greater flexibility and permits the modeling of complex dependency patterns for high-dimensional distributions. Using a sample of more than 10 years of daily return observations of the WTI crude oil, the Dow Jones Industrial average stock index and the trade weighted US dollar index returns, we find evidence of a significant and symmetric relationship between these variables. Considering different sample periods show that the dynamic of the relationship between returns is not constant over time. Our results indicate also that the dependence structure is highly affected by the financial crisis and Great Recession, over 2007–2009. Finally, there is evidence to suggest that the application of the vine copula model improves the accuracy of VaR estimates, compared to traditional approaches.     

Unlimited shelf space in Internet supply chains: Treasure trove or wasteland?

Internet retailing offers merchants limitless shelf space. This has led experts to highlight the existence of a “long tail” of offerings on the web and assert that the future of online business is “selling less of more.” However, it is difficult for Internet retailers of physical goods to sell a large scope of products without having to handle potentially large amounts of product returns from customers. This is due to the fact that customers can and do get overwhelmed by excessive product variety and often make erroneous purchasing decisions. We shed light on this issue through an assessment of theoretical predictions based on data from sales and returns of almost 7000 products in a particular product category. While retailers can benefit from expanding the scope of their inventories to generate Internet sales, the success of this strategy will depend on the control of unjustified product returns by consumers and the management of recurrent execution errors and product fit failures in transactions with customers. Furthermore, from our results, the gains that this strategy will bring to retailers will be bound by the amount of time products have been available on the Internet retailer's site, as well as by other attributes such as product price and size.     

Strategic Delegation and Vertical Integration

This paper proposes a game‐theoretic model to analyze owners' vertical integration choices if they delegate pricing decisions to their managers. We find that all three vertical structures are possible Nash equilibrium outcomes. If the products are weak substitutes, then the outcome is that both owners adopt vertical integration. When the products are close substitutes, both owners adopt vertical separation in equilibrium. When substitution between the products is medium, the coexistence of vertical integration and vertical separation is the equilibrium outcome, and the owner corresponding to vertical separation offers exactly a profit‐maximization contract to his or her manager under this situation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Price and quality competition with quality positions

In this study, we investigate price and quality decisions in a duopoly in the presence of firms’ quality positions , which are determined by the quality levels of their existing core products. Into a standard model of vertical differentiation, we incorporate a “repositioning cost” that is proportional to the quality differences between firms’ current and new products. By varying the levels of quality positions, we analyze the impact of this cost on the equilibrium outcomes. Our results show that the presence of repositioning costs restricts firms’ abilities to improve profitability and differentiate themselves vertically. As a result, a high‐positioned firm does not necessarily have a competitive advantage over a low‐positioned firm, even if the former offers a superior new product in equilibrium. In addition, if a low‐positioned firm is significantly cost‐efficient compared with its rival with regard to repositioning, then that firm can earn higher profits than those of a high‐positioned firm by strategically offering its low‐end product. These results contrast sharply with those based on the standard vertical differentiation model.     

论单项资产投资的收益和风险

民众或经济组织在进行资产投资时,主要是对资产的收益和风险进行分析权衡。本文旨在对单项资产投资的收益和风险损失进行探讨——即单项资产的收益率是否可以补偿该投资所可能产生的风险损失。     

Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model

Since the bubble of the late 1990s the dividend yield appears non-stationary indicating the breakdown of the equilibrium relationship between prices and dividends. Two lines of research have developed in order to explain this apparent breakdown. First, that the dividend yield is better characterised as a non-linear process and second, that it is subject to mean level shifts. This paper jointly models both of these characteristics by allowing non-linear reversion to a changing mean level. Results support stationarity of this model for eight international dividend yield series. This model is than applied to the forecast of monthly stock returns. Evidence supports our time-varying non-linear model over linear alternatives, particularly so on the basis of an out-of-sample R-squared measure and a trading rule exercise. More detailed examination of the trading rule measure suggests that investors could obtain positive returns, as the model forecasts do not imply excessive trading such that costs would not outweigh returns. Finally, the superior performance of the non-linear model largely arises from its ability to forecast negative returns, whereas linear models are unable to do.