Volatility spillover in the foreign exchange market: the Indian experience

We find evidence of significant volatility co-movements and/or spillover from different financial markets to the forex market in India. Among a large number of variables examined, volatility spillovers from domestic stock, government securities, overnight index swap, Ted spread and international crude oil markets to the foreign exchange market are found to be significant. There is evidence of asymmetric reactions in the forex market volatility. Comparisons between pre-crisis and post-crisis volatility indicate that the reform measures and changes in financial markets microstructure during the crisis period had significant impact on volatility spillover. During the post-crisis period, the lagged volatility component that represents persistent or fundamental changes had significant spillover effect on forex volatility, rather than the temporary shocks component. There is evidence of a decline in the asymmetric response in the forex volatility during the post-crisis period in India.     

Spillovers among sovereign CDS,stock and commodity markets: A correlation network perspective

In the wake of the globalization of financial markets, studying spillovers among different asset markets, especially spillovers that include sovereign CDS markets, is of vital importance. This paper attempts to build a spillover network to investigate the complex interactions within the system of sovereign CDS, stock and commodity markets by adopting the spillover index based on forecast error variance (FEV) decomposition. The results reveal that emerging countries have larger average spillovers than developed countries with regard to sovereign CDS-to-stock returns spillovers, while the developed countries contribute more average spillovers than the emerging countries in the opposite direction. Moreover, the sovereign CDS market and the commodity market still demonstrate a relatively important role during certain periods although stock markets always occupy the dominant position during every phase. Our findings provide new insights into spillovers among the major global asset markets using a network perspective, which is valuable for regulation of financial markets, asset allocation and portfolio risk management.     

Financial crises and the dynamics of the spillovers between the U.S. and BRICS stock markets

We examine the spillover dynamics between the U.S. and BRICS stock markets using the multivariate DECO-GJR-GARCH model and spillover index method. We identify time variations in volatility equicorrelation and significant dynamic spillovers between these stock markets, as well as an increased impact of uncertainty on spillovers. Spillovers between markets intensify after the inception of the global financial crisis and subsequent European sovereign debt crisis. We also find, following the commencement of the crisis periods, that the U.S., Brazilian, and Chinese markets are net volatility transmitters, whereas the Russian, Indian, and South African markets are net recipients. These results shed new light on the information transmission channels between the U.S. and BRICS stock markets.     

Linkages between Indian and US financial markets: impact of global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis

This paper examines inter-linkages between Indian and US equity, foreign exchange and money markets using the vector autoregressive-multivariate GARCH-BEKK framework. We investigate the impact of global financial crisis (GFC) and Eurozone debt crisis (EZDC) on the conditional volatility and conditional correlation estimates derived from the multivariate GARCH model for Indian and US financial markets. Our results indicate that there is significant bidirectional causality-in-mean between the Indian stock market returns and the Rs./USD market returns, and significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from the US stock market returns to the Indian stock market returns. As regards volatility spillovers, we find that volatility in the Indian stock market rises in response to domestic as well as US financial market shocks but Indian financial market shocks do not impact the US markets. Further, impact of the recent crisis episodes on the covariance matrix is found to be significant. We find that volatility in the Indian and US financial markets significantly amplified during GFC. The conditional correlations across asset markets were significantly accentuated in the wake of the two crisis episodes. The impact of GFC on cross-market conditional correlations is higher for majority of the asset market pairs in comparison to the EZDC.     

波动溢出网络视角的金融风险传染研究

当前各类经济风险交叉关联,金融系统的风险溢出效应备受关注,为刻画我国金融系统性风险传染的路径特征,本文从波动溢出网络的视角分析金融系统内部的风险传染机制。首先使用广义动态因子模型对收益波动的共同波动率成分和特质性波动率成分进行区分。然后,根据货币市场、资本市场、大宗商品交易市场、外汇市场、房地产市场和黄金市场之间的特质性波动溢出效应,利用基于TVP-VAR模型的方差分解溢出指数分析金融系统波动溢出的动态联动性和风险传递机制。在分析方向性波动溢出效应的基础上,采用方差分解网络方法构建起信息溢出复杂网络,从网络视角分析金融系统内部的风险传染特征。实证研究发现,房地产市场和外汇市场的净溢出效应绝对值相较于其他市场更大,其受其他市场风险冲击的影响强于对外风险溢出效应,而股票市场的单向对外风险溢出效应强度最大。在波动溢出的基础上,进一步考虑股市波动率指数与其他市场波动率指数进行投资组合的资产配置权重,计算了波动率指数投资组合的最优组合权重和对冲策略。研究结论有助于更好地理解我国金融系统的风险传染机制,对监管机构加强宏观审慎监管、投资者规避投资风险具有重要意义。     

Volatility spillovers and the effect of news announcements

We examine the effect of US and European news announcements on the spillover of volatility across US and European stock markets. Using synchronously observed international implied volatility indices at a daily frequency, we find significant spillovers of implied volatility between US and European markets as well as within European markets. We observe a stark contrast in the effect of scheduled versus unscheduled news releases. Scheduled (unscheduled) news releases resolve (create) information uncertainty, leading to a decrease (increase) in implied volatility. Nevertheless, news announcements do not fully explain the volatility spillovers, although they do affect the magnitude of volatility spillovers. Our results are robust to extreme market events such as the recent financial crisis and provide evidence of volatility contagion across markets.     

Dynamic spillovers across oil,gold and stock markets in the presence of major public health emergencies

Extreme events have a systemic impact on global financial markets, leading to significant cross-market spillovers in the oil, gold, and stock markets and raising widespread concerns about market linkages and risk contagion. In this paper, with a focus on both return and volatility, a frontier spillover network analysis is used to examine the strength and scale characteristics of spillovers in the oil, gold and stock markets under major public health emergency shocks. In addition, the paper adopts a marginal spillover and network analysis to evaluate linkage relationships, risk sources and transmission paths in the oil, gold, and stock markets during such events. The results show that the return and volatility spillover effects generated across the oil, gold, and stock markets are significant, with return spillovers being more stable and volatility spillovers being highly sensitive to emergencies. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic has displayed the strongest return and volatility spillovers. The high intensity of the shocks during the COVID-19 period has changed the usual characteristics of the market, with the gold market becoming the risk receiver and the oil market becoming risk sources.     

Spillovers in risk of financial institutions

ABSTRACT

We analyse the total and directional spillovers across a set of financial institution systemic risk state variables: credit risk, real estate market risk, interest rate risk, interbank liquidity risk and overall market risk. We examine the response of the spillover levels, within the set of systemic risk state variables, to a number of events in the financial markets and to initiatives undertaken by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The relationship between the time-varying spillovers and policy-related events is analysed using a multiple structural break estimation procedure and looking at the temporary increases in the spillover indices. Our sample includes five European Union countries: core countries France and Germany, periphery countries Spain and Italy, and a reference country, the UK. We show that national stock markets and real estate markets have a leading role in shock transmission across selected state variables. However, the role of the other variables reverses over the course of the crisis. We document that the total and net spillover indices react strongly to the events relating to financial assistance packages in Europe.     

Dynamic volatility spillovers and investment strategies between the Chinese stock market and commodity markets

Building on the increased interest in the volatility spillover effects between Chinese stock market and commodity markets, this paper investigates the dynamic volatility spillovers of Chinese stock market and Chinese commodity markets based on the volatility spillover index under the framework of TVP-VAR. The result shows that there is a highly dependent relationship between the stock market and commodity markets. On average, the Chinese stock market is the net recipient of spillover, non-ferrous metals and chemical industry have a very obvious spillover impact on the stock market. The degree of total volatility spillover is different in different periods. After major crisis events, the volatility correlation between markets increases. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the spillover effect of the stock market on the commodity market has been significantly enhanced. Then optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios are calculated for portfolio diversification and risk management. The result shows that the ability of most commodities to hedge against risks is significantly reduced when the crisis occurs; NMFI (precious metals) and CRFI (grain) still have good hedging ability after the crisis, but the effectiveness of hedging risk is relatively low. Besides, the combination of CRFI and SHCI (the Shanghai composite index) is the most effective for risk reduction.     

State transformation of information spillover in asset markets and effective dynamic hedging strategies

This paper aims to develop a strategy to effectively and dynamically hedge risk by considering regime transitions of spillover effects between assets. We take six assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, currency exchange, crude oil, and gold) that are commonly used to construct investment portfolios as examples and analyze asset price data between September 2002 and January 2022. In doing so, we aim to examine the information spillover of different asset prices in both bear and bull market environments to determine whether state transformation affects dynamic hedging effectiveness. Using Markov-Switching Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (MS-FAVAR), we construct a regimen-switching model using variables from finance and economic conditions as endogenous variables to define the state transformations of the information spillover. Empirical results reveal that the MS-FAVAR model highlights changes in information spillover during a financial crisis/economic recession. Using dynamic-weighted hedging portfolios constructed with different indicators, we find that hedging effectiveness and volatility vary depending on the state of information spillover between different asset markets and that bear markets significantly impacted hedging effectiveness. Results also show that the panic sentiment (the fear index) explains the probability of a bear market. It is suggested that the state transformation of information spillovers should be monitored periodically, and hedging portfolios should be dynamically adjusted (bear or bull market) with shifting fear sentiment.     

Risk spillovers from China's and the US stock markets during high-volatility periods: Evidence from East Asianstock markets

This paper studies cross-country risk spillovers through C-vine copula quantile regression. We find Both China's and the US markets can result in large risk spillovers to East Asian markets. Furthermore, their significant conditional spillovers indicate they can emit risk through an intermediary market. However, their distinctive dependency structures with East Asian markets reflect their differences in spillovers to the markets in magnitude. The risk spillovers from US are stronger than China in magnitude. Moreover, the risk spillover from China's stock market during its high-volatility period is weaker than the whole period, which is contrary to the US market. It may imply Chinese financial influences gradually increase with Chinese financial liberalization and regional integration. Our results have implications for macroprudential regulators adopt the effective supervision and regulation to deal with the cross-border risk spillovers, and for international investors in risk hedging, derivative valuation and investment.     

Foreign exchange market return spillovers and connectedness among African countries

This paper examines the foreign exchange return shock spillovers and network connectedness among African countries during crisis periods using (Diebold & Yilmaz, 2012; 2014; 2016) which is based on generalized VAR and network theory between June 2004 and June 2021. Overall, the study found a low system-wide spillover connectedness among African foreign exchange markets. However, the total systemic spillover index increased during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis followed by global financial crisis, indicating evidence of contagion effects. This offers good diversification opportunities in the African currency market during crisis periods. The study also found no significant evidence of spillover effects among African currencies. Nonetheless, the network connectedness analysis found a positive significant pairwise return spillovers from the South African rand, Moroccan dirham and the CFA francs to Botswana pula, and from Moroccan dirham to CFA francs and South African rand. Furthermore, the study found South African rand, Moroccan dirham and CFA francs as the most significant net-transmitter of return shocks to other currencies whiles the Kenyan shilling and Botswana pula are the net-receivers of return shocks from other currencies. These results have implications for African central banks interventions in stabilizing their exchange rates to facilitate intra and inter-African trade and for international portfolio investors in managing their foreign exchange risk exposures.     

Volatility spillovers and hedging effectiveness between the oil market and Eurozone sectors: A tale of two crises

This paper aims to analyze the mean and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the Eurozone supersector returns. It uses daily data of the Brent prices and 19 Eurozone supersector indices for the period from August 2004 to August 2015. This area experienced two important instabilities in that period, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Euro debt crisis (EDC). Because financial turbulences are suspected to induce changes in the volatility dynamics, the full sample is divided into three sub-samples. Empirically, this study employs a bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model that allows for transmission in volatility. The obtained volatilities and covariances are used to compute the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil–stock portfolio holdings. The findings show that both mean and volatility spillovers between the oil market and the different Eurozone sectors are time-varying and heterogeneous. In the GFC sub-period, there is evidence of contagion effects because there is an intensification of volatility spillovers. The EDC does not seem to have induced any particular change in the spillover effects. The optimal weights, hedge ratios, and correlation analysis results allow an accurate understanding of the time series relationship between the two markets and are useful for financial market participants and policymakers.     

Spillover of fear: Evidence from the stock markets of five developed countries

This study investigates the spillover effect in five leading stock markets (i.e., the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and France). It estimates the spillover indices of these countries and finds that information transmission between these stock markets increases considerably after 1998. Germany and the United States are the main stock markets conveying information to other international markets. Germany primarily influences the French stock market, and the United States significantly influences many other stock markets. Results show that the US stock market shows three periods during which its net spillover effect exceeds zero: the period prior to 1997, the dot-com bubble from 2000 to 2002, and the subprime mortgage crisis and Lehman Brothers bankruptcy from 2007 to 2008. The fear index correlates significantly with the spillover of the US stock market into other markets. The spillover effect of the US stock market demonstrates asymmetry and the likelihood to spread positive fundamental information and non-fundamental information (e.g., fear).     

Comparative analysis on the effects of the Asian and global financial crises on precious metal markets

The global financial crisis has vigorously struck major financial markets around the world, in particular in the developed economies since they have suffered the most. However, some commodity markets, and in particular the precious metal markets, seem to be unscathed by this financial downturn. This paper investigates therefore the nature of volatility spillovers between precious metal returns over fifteen years (1995-2010 period) with the attention being focused on these markets’ behavior during the Asian and the global financial crises. Daily closing values for precious metals are analyzed. In particular, the variables under study are the US$/Troy ounce for gold, the London Free Market Platinum price in US$/Troy ounce, the London Free Market Palladium price in US$/Troy once, and the Zurich silver price in US$/kg. The main sample is divided into a number of sub periods, prior to, during and after the Asian crisis. The aim of this division is to provide a wide and deep analysis of the behavior of precious metal markets during this financial event and of how these markets have reacted during times of market instability. In addition, this paper also looks at the effects of the global financial crisis from August 2007 to November 2010 using GARCH and EGARCH modeling. The main results show that there is clear evidence of volatility persistence between precious metal returns, a characteristic that is shared with financial market behavior as it has been demonstrated extensively by the existing literature in the area. In terms of volatility spillover effects, the main findings evidence volatility spillovers running in a bidirectional way during the periods; markets are not affected by the crises, with the exception of gold, that tends to generate effects in all other metal markets. However, there is little evidence in the case of the other precious metals generating any kind of influence on the gold market. On the other hand, there is little evidence of spillover effects during the two crisis episodes. Finally, the results from asymmetric spillover effects show that negative news/information have a stronger impact in these markets than positive news, again a characteristic that has been also exhibited by financial markets.     

Taming polysemous signals: The role of marketing intensity on the relationship between financial leverage and firm performance

This study traces the degree of integration and volatility spillover effect between the Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets by analyzing the Meteor shower hypothesis. Daily data are used from nine worldly equity markets (KSE 100, NIKKEI 225, HIS, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW JONES, GADXI, FTSE 350 and DFMGI) for the period of 2005 to 2014. First, we used the whole data set and after that we split data set into two subsets, First subset of data contains the era of global financial crisis of 2008 from 2005 to 2009 and Second subset is after global financial crisis time period from 2010 to 2014 (The global crisis prevailed till end of 2009). By following the Hamao et al. (1990) technique the univariate GARCH type models are employed to explore the dynamic linkages between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets. The results from whole data set illustrate that there is mixed co‐movements between leading foreign stock markets and Pakistani stock market. The results from both subsets provide an evidence that there is a unidirectional mean and volatility spillover effect from S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJI and DFMGI to KSE 100. Also we found bidirectional spillover effect between DFMGI and KSE 100 from both subsets of data. We concluded that there is only one indirect linkage through which may the information transmitted to KSE 100. This linkage is developed due to the co‐movement among KSE 100, DFMGI and NASDAQ 100 in crisis period. This integration between these markets may provide a sign of indirect linkage. It also exhibits the volatility in Pakistan stock market returns is instigated through direct effects as well as indirect effects. Our study brings important conclusions for financial institutions, portfolio managers, market players and academician to diagnose the nature and level of linkages between the financial markets.     

DIVERGENT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997

An important question concerning integration of global financial markets is whether local investors in an equity market react differently from international investors, particularly during periods of financial crisis. Considering local investors are closer to information, they might turn pessimistic before foreign investors before a crisis. We examine whether local investors in each of the six Asian stock markets—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand—reacted differently from international investors during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Our empirical results indicate that, in general, closed‐end country fund share prices (mainly driven by foreign investors) Granger‐cause the respective net asset values (NAVs, mainly driven by local investors). Moreover, this one‐way Granger‐causality effect from share prices to NAVs becomes much stronger during the crisis period after controlling for U.S. stock returns. Our results suggest international investors turned pessimistic before local investors. JEL classification: G15     

Illiquidity,return and risk in G7 stock markets: Interdependencies and spillovers

Trading activity in G7 stock markets reflects not only the macroeconomic and financial impact of these G7 economies in international economic growth, but also their financial interdependence. While this nexus of major stock markets has been explored in terms of volatility and return spillovers, there has been no combined analysis of return, volatility and illiquidity spillovers. We study illiquidity spillovers because they are transmissions of trading activity and, thereof, transmissions of information and market sentiment. We find that the dynamics of international stock markets are characterized by persistent illiquidity and also that illiquidity shocks are significantly correlated across markets. Furthermore, we discover Granger causal associations between risk, return and illiquidity across G7 stock market and also within each stock market. Our findings bear significance for the regulation of international financial markets and also for international portfolio diversification.     

中国金融周期与横向关联:时空双维度相结合视角

宏观审慎政策关注各金融子市场在时间维度上的金融周期和空间维度上的横向关联。本文结合时间维度与空间维度视角,使用股票市场、货币市场、房地产市场以及信贷市场的数据,测算2001—2019年中国金融周期和横向关联的波动特征、作用关系与频域叠加机理。研究结果表明:时间维度金融周期与空间维度横向关联的波动趋势具有一致性。我国金融周期长度约为10.33年,横向关联波动周期的长度约为10.58年。从作用关系上看,首先,我国房地产周期达到波峰后,会对股票市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。随后,股市周期达到波峰后,会向房地产市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。最后,我国信贷市场接受股票市场和房地产市场溢出后,信贷周期会逐渐达到波峰。从频域叠加机理的角度看,我国金融子市场间横向关联的波动主要由中低频波段驱动,中低频波段横向关联的持续期在2个月以上。     

Return and Volatility Spillovers and Cojump Behavior Between the U.S. and Korean Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

In this study, we examine return spillover, volatility transmission, and cojump behavior between the U.S. and Korean stock markets. In particular, we focus on cojump behavior between the two markets in order to explain the transmission of unexpected shocks. We find that the U.S. stock market causes return spillover effects in the Korean stock market, and there is significant volatility transmission between the two markets. Importantly, we find a stronger association in size, as compared with intensity, of cojumps between the U.S. and Korean stock markets, particularly during the recent financial crisis.