美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。     

制度环境对贫困地区非正规创业行为的影响实证

非正规创业是指在非正规经济中实施的创业活动,因其有助于增加就业机会,提高经济收入,成为了缓解我国贫困问题的有效途径。基于制度理论,实证分析了制度环境对贫困地区非正规创业行为的影响机理与效应。研究发现:企业税费负担对贫困地区非正规创业行为有显著正向影响;政府行政管理和企业经营的法制环境对贫困地区非正规创业行为均有显著负向影响。     

Trade preferences and exports of manufactures: A case study of Bolivia and Brazil

Trade Preferences and Exports of Manufactures: A Case Study of Bolivia and Brazil. — This paper analyzes the impact of the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) on the exports of Bolivia and Brazil, whose levels of economic development differ substantially. While Brazil’s exports under GSP were larger than Bolivia’s, the preferences had a significant impact only on Bolivian exports. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that certain low-income countries have benefitted from trade preferences. Since the GSP is not costly to the U.S. economy, continuation of the program with some modifications to benefit the least developed countries is recommended.     

我国民间融资的风险性研究

民间融资是对供给不足的正规金融的一种有益补充,已成为我国金融市场的重要组成部分。然而,受经济下行和政策调控的影响,民间融资风险日益显现,并引发了一系列经济社会问题。本文结合我国当前的民间融资现状,对其风险性问题进行研究,并结合国际经验探索民间融资规范化发展的措施。     

Contribution of interest rate control to China’s economic development

China’s economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since 1978, which has resulted in a sustained improvement in the average living standard in China. A theoretical model is developed in the present study to analyze the role of interest rate control in China’s economic growth, where investment is primarily determined by interest rates available to firms and entrepreneurs. When the central bank regulates the interest rates and makes them below the equilibrium rate, high-level investment activities boost economic growth and introduce new technologies into the economy, which in turn promotes growth in labour productivity. As the current marginal product of capital is much higher than the interest rate, the output growth is much faster than consumption growth and exports become an important part of the economy. To maintain competitiveness of exports over a longer period, it is necessary to keep exchange rates low, which results in large foreign exchange reserves. When the export sector is losing its competitiveness edge due to increased labour costs and exports cannot digest the difference between output growth and consumption plus investment growth, interest rate control may lose its positive impact on economic growth.     

福建省农产品出口与农业经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,福建省的农产品出口和农业经济发展迅速,但两者之间的关系尚不明确。结合计量经济学的平稳性检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验等方法,我们对福建省的农产品出口和农业经济增长关系进行实证研究,结果表明农产品出口能促进农业经济增长,且两者互为Granger原因。最后,根据研究结果从产业发展、质量管理、人才培养和资金投入等方面提出了对策建议。     

Rising wages,yuan's appreciation and China's processing exports

This study investigates the impact of rising wage and the appreciation of the yuan on the structure of China's exports. China's exports are classified here as ordinary exports (OE), and two distinctive groups of processing exports, pure assembly exports (PAE) and mixed assembly exports (MAE). The data analyzed here are derived from panel data covering China's bilateral PAE and MAE with 120 trading partners from 1993 to 2013. The estimates of fixed effect models show that wage increase and the appreciation of the yuan reduced the proportion of assembly exports in China's bilateral exports. Specifically, for a 10% increase in Chinese manufacturing wages, the share of PAE in China's bilateral exports is expected to fall 4.59% and that of MAE to decrease 0.9%; and a 10% nominal appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar is expected to lower the shares of PAE and MAE 8.56% and 7.26% respectively. The empirical results imply that rising wage and cumulative appreciation of the yuan have eroded China's comparative advantage in the assembly of products for international markets, resulting in substantial contraction of assembly exports. The analysis provides a supply-side explanation for the fall of China's export growth.     

China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.     

Regional Integration,Bilateral Diplomacy and African Trade: Evidence from the Gravity Model

The paper examines the impact of two main instruments of economic diplomacy — regional integration and commercial diplomacy on export flows among African states. We test whether there is any evidence of a trade‐off or complementary interaction between these two instruments in trade facilitation using the gravity model for 45 African states over the period 1980–2005. The results show that bilateral diplomatic exchange is a more significant determinant of bilateral exports among African states compared to regional integration. We also find that the trade–stimulating effect of diplomatic exchange is less pronounced among African countries that shared membership of the same regional bloc.     

The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis

The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the Russian embargo from 7 August 2014 on certain agricultural food products from the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia. The effects of this economic sanction are analysed in the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a particular focus on bilateral and total exports, production and welfare. The detailed, based on real trade data, calibration of the model allows for an exact identification of the sectoral shares and prohibitive tariffs aggregated to match the CGE model’s sectoral level of aggregation. In addition, the paper carries on a validation exercise to compare the model’s predictions with real trade data developments. The modelling simulation results show that the impact of the ban on total exports of the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia is limited. Nevertheless at a disaggregate level there are sectors – ‘vegetables and fruits’, ‘other meat’ and ‘dairy products’ – which experience two digit percentage change declines.     

A comprehensive economic partnership between India and Japan: Impact,prospects and challenges

This paper examines the benefits and challenges of the 2011 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan, specifically the ways to maximize gains from their complementary economies, trade and FDI relations. It also measures the partnership's economy-wide impact empirically, and its role in regional and global integration. An analysis of the trade intensity indices shows that the bilateral trade flow is small considering the other country's importance in world trade, suggesting the existence of great potential for improving trade relations. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the economy wide impact of the CEPA suggests that tariff reductions will create a marginal increase in output growth for both India and Japan as compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of the effect on exports, India's exports to Japan would increase more than those of Japan to India while positive net welfare gains are expected for both countries as a result of trade liberalization. This is in contrast to the study by Ahmed (2010), which finds welfare gains only for Japan, not for India. Furthermore, one of the striking results of the paper is that Japan will not reduce its heavy reliance on the Chinese market, though India will. In general, India, compared to Japan, will gain more, if CEPA materializes by 2020. Japan too will have welfare gains in spite of opening up the agriculture sector with 100% tariff reduction by 2020. Both countries need to accelerate structural reforms to remove the border barriers in addition to reducing tariffs, in order to reap maximum benefit of their economic partnership.     

Trade in the shadow of power: Japanese industrial exports in the interwar years

During the interwar years, Japanese industrialization accelerated alongside the expansion of industrial exports to regional markets. Trade blocs in the interwar years were used as an instrument of imperial power to foster exports and as a substitute for productivity to encourage industrial production. The historiography on Japanese industrialization in the interwar years describes heavy industries’ interests in obtaining access to wider markets to increase economies of scale and reduce unit costs. However, this literature provides no quantitative evidence that proves the success of those mechanisms in expanding exports. In this article we scrutinize how Japan—a relatively poor country—used colonial as well as informal power interventions to expand regional markets for its exports, especially for the most intensive human capital sector of the industrializing economy. Our results show that Japanese exports in 1938 would have been around one-third smaller had no empire ever existed, which indicates an outstanding effect of empire in the international context.     

服务贸易对浙江经济增长影响的实证分析

本文实证检验了服务贸易对浙江GDP增长的影响,发现浙江服务贸易出口会促进经济增长,进口则会制约经济增长。而且出口、进口均是GDP增长的格兰杰原因。在尝试性地对这些结果进行相应解释的基础上,提出了发展服务贸易、促进浙江经济增长的建议。     

Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?

This study uses panel data on the Bohai Rim Region of China to test for spatial autocorrelation, and measures economic spatial spillover effects with the space Durbin econometric model. We discuss whether the economic development of coastal counties benefits the whole area. To do this, we focus on the “distance from the coast” factor, which is influenced by transportation time. The results indicate the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in the Bohai Rim Region. Further, economic spatial spillover effects exist in this region. “Distance from the coast” exerts a significantly negative impact on the local GDP per capita but a significantly positive impact on the GDP per capita of other districts. This means that the economic development of coastal counties does not benefit the whole region. “Value of exports” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and no significant influence on other counties, while “foreign direct investment” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on other counties. “Number of employees in units” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on the other counties. The factors “primary industry's share in GDP” and “tertiary industry's share in GDP” influence the local economy positively, but the former exerts no significant influence on other counties and the latter exerts a negative influence on other counties. “Rate of fixed asset investment” influences the local economy negatively and has no significant effect on other counties. “Total retail sales of social consumer goods” has no significant influence on the local economy but a positive significant influence on the others. Finally, marine resource utilization and marine output can affect economic growth positively. On this basis, we propose policy suggestions for harmonious economic development in this region.     

Recession and the informal sector in South Africa

Despite the recent avalanche of writings investigating the informal sector, scant consideration has been accorded to the impact of an economic recession upon the growth and complexion of the informal sector.The object of this paper is to reflect upon the likely consequences of economic recession upon the South African informal sector in light of the extant international literature. Two different sets of processes are identified as impacting upon the growth and composition of the informal sector. The first suggests that the growth of the informal sector is the consequence of the lack of expansion of the formal sector. The second argues that much of the expansion in the informal sector is directly linked to its integration with formal sector enterprises. Under recessionary conditions, it is suggested that the growth of the informal sector may occur as a refuge from destitution but that the complexion of the informal economy will shift and be dominated by activities of a more ‘socially unacceptable’ nature.     

Bilateral Relations and Exports: Evidence from Google Big Data

This paper investigates the effect of bilateral relations on exports using data from Google Global Data. It finds that bilateral relations significantly reduced the negative effect of cultural distance on exports, indicating that they can promote exports by reducing trade costs. The paper finds that higher average Goldstein scores of events correlated with more exports and that bilateral relations had a larger effect on trust-intensive products, indicating that positive relations built trust and decreased the emotional distance between trading partners. The results also show that bilateral relations promoted exports at both the intensive and extensive margins but with a greater effect on the latter. Finally, bilateral relations had a greater positive effect on developing countries than on developed ones. The results were qualitatively unchanged when endogeneity issues and robustness concerns were considered.     

EXPORT‐LED GROWTH IN CHILE: ASSESSING THE ROLE OF EXPORT COMPOSITION IN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This study examines the export‐led growth hypothesis using annual time‐series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, several single‐equation and system cointegration techniques are applied. The estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity‐enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity‐limiting effects of primary exports.     

全球华人网络的出口贸易效应及其影响机制研究

文章利用全球131个国家(或地区)的华人网络和贸易数据,考察了华人网络对国家之间出口贸易的影响,通过区分华人网络中的直接联系与间接联系,检验了移民偏好机制和移民信息机制的有效性。研究结果表明:华人网络不仅会通过直接联系促进中国对海外华人所在国出口贸易的增长,而且会通过间接联系带动海外华人所在国之间出口贸易规模的扩大;移民信息机制是华人网络促进国家之间出口贸易增长的主要机制,但是,华人网络会同时通过移民信息机制和移民偏好机制促进差异化商品和资本品出口贸易增长。进一步的研究发现,发达国家移民网络的出口贸易创造效应普遍高于发展中国家,华人网络的出口贸易创造效应明显高于其他发展中国家。因此,中国不仅要重视海外华人在促进中国出口发展中的重要作用,而且要积极地引进国际人才特别是来自发达国家的国际人才,通过参与其他国家的移民网络构建中国与世界各国的联系,促进中国出口贸易稳定增长。     

Does Country Risk Promote the Informal Economy? A Cross-National Panel Data Estimation

This article investigates whether country risk plays an important role in determining the size of the informal economy. Using annualized panel data for a sample of 131 countries and regions covering 1999–2007, and controlling for a set of control variables, we find that country risk is a robust and significant determinant of the informal economy: a 1% increase in the country risk rating (decrease in the country risk) causes a 0.1% fall in the informal economy, and political risk has the largest effect, followed by economic risk. Moreover, the estimation results provide little evidence in support of an inverted-U relationship between urbanization and the share of the informal sector, which shed new light on the urbanization-the informal economy nexus.     

Trade,Investment and Economic Interdependence between South Korea and China*

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low‐cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross‐border production networks.