Land rental markets and rural poverty dynamics in Northern Ethiopia: Panel data evidence using survival models

There is growing interest in understanding the links between land reforms, land markets, and poverty reduction in Africa. The study uses four‐wave panel data from the northern highlands of Ethiopia to assess the dynamics of rural poverty taking into account the status of participation of rural households in the land rental market. Applying both nonparametric (Kaplan–Meier estimator) and semi‐parametric survival models that control for duration dependence of poverty transition, results show participation and degree of participation on the supply side of the tenancy market (landlords) have highly significant and positive effect on the chances of escaping poverty while the same cannot be said about the demand side of the tenancy market (tenants). The empirical evidence also confirms that households headed by older and literate people have relatively larger exit rates from poverty as compared with households headed by younger and illiterate ones. Though transacting farmers may engage themselves in win–win rental arrangements by the time they join the tenancy market, results indicate that gains are unequal as those tenants who enter the markets from low economic leverage (were poor) are liable to face a lower margin of net gains, which may limit their ability to move out of poverty.     

Incentives to (not) disclose energy performance information in the housing market

Disclosure of energy performance certificates (EPCs) is often incomplete, which hampers their effectiveness in relieving information asymmetries between landlords and tenants in the housing market. Even when a certificate is available, landlords do not always disclose it. This contradicts the unraveling result, according to which all landlords should disclose quality information unless it is costly to do so. We leverage a cross-sectional dataset of residential rental advertisements from the Belgian region of Brussels to empirically evaluate incentives to disclose an EPC. We find that two fundamental assumptions for the unraveling result are not confirmed in our setting: tenants do not necessarily value energy performance of rental property and do not appear to rationally adjust their expectations when faced with dwellings that withhold their EPC. The paper formulates specific policy advice for reforming EPC mechanisms to increase disclosure rates.     

Ethnic divisions,contract choice,and search costs in the Guatemalan land rental market

This paper shows how ethnic diversity in a context of weak property rights enforcement can result in market segmentation. The paper analyzes how contract enforcement problems affect the joint decision of partner and contract choice by landlords in the land rental market in Guatemala. The empirical method allows partner choice to be determined not only by the characteristics and relative scarcity of the specific landowner and tenant, but also by the characteristics of other potential tenants. The results show that landowners without formal title are more likely to restrict their partners to tenants from the same ethnic group. Partner choice is found to be less important for renting with interlinked land–labor contracts.     

The estimation of a hedonic asking and offer rent equation model: An EM algorithm approach

In this paper we claim that modeling housing markets, specifically the rental housing market, should be based on some sort of disequilibrium framework. We posit a model of asking and offer rents in the spirit of a sample selectivity model. This approach allows us not only to test whether landlords and tenants agree upon the marginal evaluations of unit attributes, but also to estimate the impact on rental demand of tenant specific attributes such as family income and race. Since estimators obtained from this procedure are consistent, but not efficient in this two equation context, we employ an EM algorithm in our estimation in order to obtain MLE equivalent estimators. We have found that our data support the use of this disequilibrium approach in that the coefficient estimates for the asking rent equation, under the assumptions of a sample selectivity model, are not coincident with those obtained from an uncorrected equation.     

Insecurity of property rights and social matching in the tenancy market

This paper shows that insecurity of property rights over agricultural land can have large efficiency and equity costs because of the way it affects matching in the tenancy market. A principal-agent framework is used to model the landlord's decision to rent when he takes into account the risk of losing the land to the tenant and when contract enforcement is decreasing in social distance with the tenant. These effects are quantified for the case of local land rental markets in the Dominican Republic. Results show that insecure property rights lead to matching in the tenancy market along socio-economic lines, severely limiting the size of the rental market and the choice of tenants for landlords, both with efficiency costs. Social segmentation reduces access to land for the rural poor, with high equity costs. Simulations suggest that improving tenure security would increase rental transactions by 21% and the area rented to the poor by 63%. Increased property rights security is hence beneficial not only to asset owners, but also to those with whom they might interact in the market.     

Factors influencing commercial buildings to obtain green certificates

Identifying the key factors that influence commercial buildings’ decision to obtain voluntary green certificates is essential to building sustainability enhancement. Using commercial buildings in the state of New York, multinomial logit and nested logit models demonstrate that there is a significant correlation between the characteristics of commercial buildings (such as square footage, lot size, and years built) and green certification. More interestingly, if a commercial building is occupied by its owner, likelihood of green certification is actually smaller. This finding not only confirms that ongoing energy savings are heavily discounted when deciding whether to incur the upfront cost of green certification, but also suggests that the rental premium enjoyed by green buildings is likely greater in terms of present value than the expected operating cost savings. Another explanation could be that investor owners must operate in a competitive market for tenants while owner-occupiers do not operate in that competitive market, so they do not need to obtain green certificates to attract tenants. Consequently for policymakers, building owners that plan to rent out their commercial property space should be the early targets to promote green certification.     

A Simple Model of Recent Changes in the Residential Property Market*

A simple model of the Australian residential property market incorporating two form of tenure, owner occupation and renting, is developed. While the supply of housing services is common to both tenures, the demands of tenants and owner occupiers are independent and separate. The equilibrium values of rental and house prices are determined simultaneously in the two sectors. The model is then used to qualitatively assess the likely effects on rents and house prices of some important elements of the September 1985 tax package.     

Job protection,housing market regulation,and the youth

Young Europeans experience high unemployment rates, job instability, and late emancipation. Meanwhile, they do not support reforms weakening protection on long‐term contracts. In this paper, we suggest a possible rationale for such reform distaste. When the rental market is strongly regulated, landlords screen applicants with regard to their ability to pay the rent. Protecting regular jobs offers a second‐best technology to sort workers, thereby increasing the rental market size. We provide a model where nonemployed workers demand protected jobs despite unemployment and the share of short‐term jobs increases, whereas the individual risk of dismissal is unaffected. Our theory can be extended to alternative risks and markets involving correlated risks and commitment under imperfect information.     

保障性住房、社会身份与公平感——来自社区实地实验的证据

2020年中央经济工作会议指出要重视保障性租赁住房建设,同时明确提出要逐步使租购住房在享受公共服务上具有同等权利。长期租购权利的不平等容易使得人们在心理认知上给予租房与购房不同的价值权重,这种认知上的差异进一步造成了租、购两类住户社会身份上的差异。因此,探究租购身份差异是否会影响人们日常交往时的公平感,对于改善人民居住条件,避免租购不同群体之间的社会分割,促进全体人民共同富裕有重要意义。为控制其他因素的干扰,我们运用实地实验方法,以同一社区的经济适用房住户和公租房住户为实验对象,以是否公开租购身份信息为干预手段,将租购身份外生地引入最后通牒博弈中,从自我认知和对他人的认知两个角度考察租购身份是否会影响租、购住户之间的公平分配行为。结果显示,公开租购身份会唤醒租房者的自我认知,长期的租购权利不平等使得租房者渴望更公平的资源分配。同时,公开租购身份也会改变人们对他人的认知,相比于面对购房者,人们在面对租房者时会提出更加公平的分配方案。     

Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes

Do sovereign bond markets react systematically to microeconomic policy reforms? Some observers suggest that investors are very attentive to supply‐side policies such as those related to labor markets, corporate taxation, and product standards. They argue that, along with macroeconomic outcomes and broad financial market conditions, such reforms affect sovereign bond premiums, for developed as well as emerging economies. In contrast, we predict few systematic effects of supply‐side policy reforms on sovereign bond market outcomes. Our theory draws on a standard three‐equation model of the economy, widely accepted among economic and finance professionals. That model makes few clear predictions regarding the anticipated effects of microeconomic policy changes; as a result, we expect that such reforms will not generate systematic market reactions. Our analyses, based on daily data from 37 countries from 2004 to 2012, indeed reveal little evidence of a systematic bond market reaction to the 47 most significant reforms to corporate taxation and labor market regulation. These results call into question the notion that “bond market vigilantes” play a central role in compelling governments to enact specific microeconomic policy changes.     

Efficiency and equity impacts of rural land rental restrictions: Evidence from India

Recognition of the potentially deleterious implications of inequality in opportunity originating in a skewed asset distribution has spawned considerable interest in land reforms. However, little attention has been devoted to the fact that, in the longer-term, the measures used to implement land reforms, especially rental restrictions, could negatively affect productivity. Use of state level data on rental restrictions, together with a nationally representative survey from India suggests that, contrary to original intentions, rental restrictions negatively affect productivity and equity by reducing scope for efficiency-enhancing rental transactions that benefit poor producers. Simulations suggest that, by doubling the number of producers with access to land through rental, from about 15 million currently, liberalization of rental markets could have far-reaching impacts.     

Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market

The presence of a bubble in the US housing market prior to the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis is investigated. This is done by looking into the relationship between house prices and rental prices, known as the price–rent ratio, which is an important measure of a potential deviation between house prices and its fundamental value. Additionally, the interest rate is taken into account since it is an important factor in determining demand for housing mortgages and thereby influencing house prices, and explosive behavior of house prices is considered. These relationships are investigated through a theoretical and econometrical framework. The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bubble in the housing market prior to the financial crisis, even when controlling for the decreasing interest rate and the fundamental information given by the rental price in the period. Explosiveness was the main source of the price increase, such that a bubble was present in the housing market after correcting for other fundamental factors. The econometric procedures used in the analysis may therefore be relevant for monitoring the housing market.     

THE INVERSE DOMINO EFFECT: ARE ECONOMIC REFORMS CONTAGIOUS?*

This article examines whether a country's economic reforms are affected by reforms adopted by other countries. Our theoretical model predicts that reforms are more likely when factors of production are internationally mobile and reforms are pursued in other economies. Using the change in the Index of Economic Freedom as the measure of market‐liberalizing reforms and panel data (144 countries, 1995–2006), we test our model. We find evidence of the spillover of reforms. Moreover, consistent with our model, international trade is not a vehicle for the diffusion of economic reforms; rather the most important mechanism is geographical or cultural proximity.     

THE WEALTH DISTRIBUTION WITH DURABLE GOODS*

In the United States, the distribution of houses is less egalitarian than that of earnings for the total population, but these two distributions are remarkably similar for homeowners. Additionally, housing as a fraction of total wealth decreases with the level of wealth. In order to understand the different factors that account for these wealth composition patterns, we introduce illiquid houses and collateral credit in a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous agents with idiosyncratic uncertainty. A combination of very persistent shocks to earnings, frictions in the housing market, and a rental market is necessary to obtain numbers in line with the evidence.     

Land rights,rental markets and the post-socialist cityscape

Inefficiently organized, factory-dominated cityscapes have been one of the more enduring legacies of the twentieth century experiment with socialist central planning in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Drawing on a unique survey of large, formerly state-owned urban industrial firms in Russia, we explore how land tenure reforms affect the pace at which this legacy is being erased. For various historical, political, and economic reasons, there is substantial variation across firms as to their ownership of the land on which they sit. Despite facing no additional formal constraints, those that do not own their plots rent them out at a lower frequency than those that have acquired private tenure to their land. The privatization of plots, in other words, promotes the development of a rental market that transfers land use rights away from socialist-era industrial users. We address the potential endogeneity of land tenure using a measure of regional variation in urban land policy and Communist party vote shares as instrumental variables.     

Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: Berlin and the German Reunification

Abstract. We analyze the behavior of investors in the Berlin rental apartment house market over the years 1980–2004. Using constant‐quality multipliers (price–rent ratios), we reject the hypothesis that multipliers in the market were set in a rational manner. Supported by narrative evidence, we conjecture that investors misjudged the economic effects of the German reunification. To examine this, we employ a stylized structural economic model and analyze the effects of shocks on rational multipliers. It seems that investors confused the reunification with a permanent supply side shock to the economy. By basing their investment decisions on this misjudgement, investors behaved irrationally, but in a very uncertain and unprecedented environment.     

On the user cost and homeownership

This paper studies the differences in the cost of housing services for renters and homeowners and calculates the bias that results when we value owner-occupied housing services using a rental equivalence approach. Our framework is a life-cycle model with endogenous tenure choice with households facing idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk and housing price risk. We model houses as illiquid assets that provide collateral for loans. To analyze the impact of preferential housing taxation on the tenure choice and the bias, we consider a tax system that mimics that of the US economy. Namely, owner-occupied housing services are not taxed and mortgage interest payments are deductible. Through simulations, we show that a rental equivalence approach (relative to a user cost approach) overestimates the cost of housing services. The magnitude of the bias is very sensitive to both the income tax rate and the size of adjustment costs in the housing market.     

Productivity effects of land rental market operation in Ethiopia: evidence from a matched tenant–landlord sample

As countries increasingly strive to transform their economies from agriculture‐based into a diversified one, land rental will become of greater importance. It will thus be critical to complement research on the efficiency of specific land rental arrangements such as sharecropping with an inquiry into the broader productivity impacts of the land rental market. Plot‐level data for a matched landlord–tenant sample in an environment where sharecropping dominates allow us to explore both issues. We find that pure output sharing leads to significantly lower levels of efficiency that can be attenuated by monitoring while the inefficiency disappears if inputs are shared as well. Rentals transfer land to more productive producers but realization of this productivity advantage is prevented by the inefficiency of contractual arrangements, suggesting changes that would prompt adoption of different contractual arrangements could have significant benefits.     

Monetary Policy Transparency in the UK: The Impact of Independence and Inflation Targeting

There is a widespread belief that the transparency of UK monetary policy has increased substantially as a result of the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 and a number of procedural and institutional reforms which accompanied and followed it. Here, money market responses (and other data) are used to test the possibility that improved anticipation of policy moves may be the result of developments other than the institutional reforms popularly cited. We find overwhelming evidence that the switch to inflation targeting itself significantly reduced monetary policy surprises, while subsequent reforms have contributed little. Where we advance substantially on earlier work is to look at the cross‐sectional dispersion of agents’ anticipation. If the benefit of transparency is the elimination of policy surprise, there is little benefit if the averagely correct anticipations of agents conceal a wide dispersion of view.     

The paradox in the privatization of Hungary's public housinhg: a national gift or a bad bargain?1

The vast majority of Hungary's publicly owned, rental housing, once heavily subsidized, has passed through privatization into owner-occupation. Most tenants hoped to gain a financial advantage by privatization. This study sets out to discover how far such expectations have been met. Bearing in mind the cost of neglected renovation, what does a new owner gain by acquiring ownership of the dwelling and what costs does he or she incur? The study shows that privatization has presented the tenants, who had already benefitted from subsidies, with a sizeable ‘national gift’. The bigger and better the home they rented, the greater their privatization gift. However, there is a paradox to analyse: why has the gift proved a burden to many recipients? The study also looks at how the adaptation occurring in the housing sector might be improved and how the losses of those who find themselves in a predicament after privatization might be reduced.