数据挖掘技术在寿险业交叉销售中的应用

一般来说,保险公司获得新客户的成本比维持老客户的成本要高得多,因此保险公司开始更多地关注现有客户的发展,交叉销售正是挖掘现有客户的消费潜力的有效方法。本文以CRISP-DM(Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining)方法论为基础,探讨聚类分析和关联规则在寿险行业交叉销售中的应用,并结合某寿险公司的基础数据应用Clementine挖掘工具建立了交叉销售模型,帮助寿险公司有针对性地开展产品营销。     

Exploring advertising as an antecedent to brand experience dimensions: an experimental study

The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of advertising on brand experience dimensions for an existing bank and a financial technology (Fintech) brand. A 2?×?2 between-subject experimental study was conducted that analyzed the antecedents of brand experience dimensions and compared them between an existing bank and a fintech brand. The study confirmed the main effect of advertising on all brand experience dimensions. The brand experience scores for the fintech brand were higher than that of the existing bank brand, and significant differences were observed for sensory, emotional, and behavioral brand experience dimensions. The study confirms the influence of advertising on both existing bank and fimtech brand. While most of the previous studies are based on survey research, the present study provides deep probing using experimental study. It seeks to understand the antecedent to brand experience in the context of an emerging country.     

The Asset Price Theory of Shareholder Revaluations: Tests with the Tax Reforms of the 1980s

A tax reform providing incentives for fixed investment may increase shareholder wealth because after-tax cash flows on planned investment increase. Alternatively, shareholder wealth may decline because existing assets receive disadvantageous tax treatment relative to new ones and equities are largely claims on existing assets. This study tests the alternative hypothesis by predicting in a simulation model the revaluation of existing assets resulting from the 1981 and 1986 tax acts and then by comparing the predictions to stock returns data. The results reject the hypothesis that cumulative excess returns accruing because of tax reform equal the revaluation on existing assets.     

商业银行存量资源风险转化研究

本文从剖析存量资源、存量资源风险的内涵出发 ,探寻存量资源风险存在的根源 ,思考化解存量资源特别是信贷资源风险的对策     

财政收入增长迅猛 收入结构亟待调整——对桐庐县财政收入结构的分析与思考

本文选取2006-2010年的桐庐县级财政数据为样本,通过分析现行财政体制下桐庐县政府财政收入结构的变化,力求揭示收入结构中存在的问题,从而为该县政府财政收入的可持续增长提供有效的政策建议。     

A Note on the Determinants of the Outcomes of Bankruptcy Petitions: Evidence From Korea

This study provides evidence on the determinants of the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions using Korean firms for the period from 1977 to 1994. We hypothesize that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, longer existing period, larger size, lower operating risk, and more goodwill would have higher survival prospects from the bankruptcy petition. The results from logit estimation confirm this hypothesis. The free assets, existing period, firm size, and goodwill have positive influence on the probability of reorganization, while the liquid assets, and operating risk are negatively related to the probability of reorganization. Among these variables, the free assets percentage is the most significant at the one percent level in determining the outcomes of bankruptcy petitions. This reveals that a bankrupt firm with more free assets tends to be reorganized because it would be easy to obtain additional financing needed for the successful reorganization. The liquid assets and existing period are also significant at the five percent level. We conclude that a firm with more free assets, less liquid assets, and longer existing period would have higher survival prospects in Korea.     

Developing country finances,present and future

Existing ways for developing countries to obtain finance are explained-IMF credits, compensatory finance, private loans, etc. Reforms to these arrangements are discussed; for instance, the IMF could ease the conditions it imposes for loans, compensatory finance could react to rising import bills as well as to falling export revenues, and Special Drawing Rights could be better linked to aid schemes. Given inertia in existing facilities, a new World Development Fund may be needed to complement existing institutions.     

护盘式股份回购的弊端及风险防控机制探究——兼评《公司法》第142条第六项

护盘是上市公司回购股份的重要理由之一,2018年10月我国《公司法》第142条专项修改明确护盘式回购的合法性,是资本市场基础制度改革的重要一步。同时尤需注意护盘式回购的固有弊端,主要集中于市场秩序与债权人及中小股东合法权益的保护。本文旨在深入分析护盘式回购存在问题,结合我国立法变迁及市场回应,通过比较借鉴域外护盘式回购及安定操作的法律规制技术,进一步探讨如何从现有法规制度层面最大化防控其风险并有效保证护盘功能的发挥,促进资本市场的发展进步。     

Simulation-based Value-at-Risk for nonlinear portfolios

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness, however, substantially diminishes when the portfolios concerned involve a high dimension of derivative positions with nonlinear payoffs; lack of closed form pricing solution for these potentially highly correlated, American-style derivatives further complicate the problem. This paper proposes a generic simulation-based algorithm for VaR estimation that can be easily applied to any existing procedures. Our proposal leverages cross-sectional information and applies variable selection techniques to simplify the existing simulation framework. Asymptotic properties of the new approach demonstrate faster convergence due to the additional model selection component introduced. We have also performed sets of numerical results that verify the effectiveness of our approach in comparison with some existing strategies.     

吉林省农村金融发展现状研究

本文以2007年中国银监会实施调整后的农村金融政策为界点,阐述2007年以来吉林省农村地区各类涉农金融机构发展现状,分析各类涉农金融机构当前存在的问题,并对存在的问题提出相应的发展对策,以期通过浅显的研究,对吉林省农村金融业的发展提供一些有益参考。     

Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty

Replacement investment is essentially a regenerative optimal stopping problem; that is, the key decision concerns when to terminate the life of existing plant – and hence when to start over again. This paper examines this optimisation problem within a continuous time framework and studies the qualitative and quantitative impact of uncertainty on the timing of new investment (and the criteria that should be used for terminating the life of existing plant).     

关于会计计量的几个理论问题

随着当代财务会计试图把越来越多的所谓“资产负债表外业务”纳入表内核算和试图在会计报表中反映资产、负债价值的变化,会计准则中已经越来越多引入了公允价值等除历史成本以外的其它会计计量基础,从而对现行的历史成本会计模式产生了很大挑战。不仅如此,由于过去的财务会计概念框架没有考虑这一新的会计计量发展趋势,也使得会计准则与概念框架之间、会计准则与会计准则之间因为会计计量问题而产生了诸多的不一致,十分不利于会计信息质量的提高和国际会计的趋同。为此,本文以现行国际财务报告准则中存在的会计计量问题为出发点,系统研究了当前会计计量问题的实质、理论基础、未来发展趋向及其国际努力,并进而提出了我国的因应对策。     

Using bandwidths to visualize and improve patient pathways

Global healthcare systems are struggling to manage the increasing demand for services. What is becoming apparent is the need for a greater understanding of the design of existing patient care pathways (journeys) and how these might be improved. Taking a Lean perspective, a popular approach employed for improving healthcare services, the authors consider how existing patient pathways can be visualized. Examples are used to illustrate varying degrees of complexity within the design and when Lean principles might help in providing a standardized and predictable service. The merits and challenges associated with using bandwidths are discussed and suggestions for future research are provided.     

NPM REFORMS AND THE PERCEPTION OF BUDGET BY HOSPITAL CLINICIANS: LESSONS FROM TWO CASE‐STUDIES

This paper investigates how clinicians perceive managerial budgeting and how this affects clinical practice. To this end, case‐studies were conducted involving two Italian public hospitals. The results show that clinicians' commitment to organizational objectives was strongly enhanced by the use of the budget as a means to evaluate and reward clinicians' performance. One of the main lessons learned from this study is that aligning existing institutions to organizational objectives is the only way forward for effective reform implementation. Consequently, the challenge for future reforms is to deal with the search of balance between efficiency goals and existing institutions.     

The Impact of Deregulation on Efficiency: An Analysis of Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan From 1981 to 2004

We examine the impact of deregulation and liberalization (D&L) on the efficiency of the Taiwanese life insurance industry from 1981 to 2004. We utilize the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency performances and the Malmquist index approach to measure changes in efficiency and productivity over time. Both the DEA and Malmquist results show that the old domestic firms have been slightly impacted by the new competitors around 1992–1994 (the end of foreign and new local entry period and the beginning of post-D&L period). More important, our results show that the D&L does not have major adverse impact on the technical, cost, and revenue efficiency performances of existing domestic firms in the long run. The dominance of existing domestic firms has declined but persists throughout the sample period. In addition, our results show that it is relatively easy for new firms to become technically efficient in just few years after entering the market, but it is more difficult for them to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency. We, thus, suggest that a new market entrant should take advantage of the existing mechanisms by acquiring an old (existing) firm, rather than establish a new one, if a new entrant wants to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency in a short time.     

Joint Insolvency Analysis of a Shared MAP Risk Process: A Capital Allocation Application

In recent years, multivariate insurance risk processes have received increasing attention in risk theory. First-passage-time problems in the context of these insurance risk processes are of primary interest for risk management purposes. In this article we study joint-ruin problems of two risk undertakers in a proportionally shared Markovian claim arrival process. Building on the existing work in the literature, joint-ruin–related quantities are thoroughly analyzed by capitalizing on existing results in certain univariate insurance surplus processes. Finally, an application is considered where the finite-time and infinite-time joint-ruin probabilities are used as risk measures to allocate risk capital among different business lines. The proposed joint-ruin allocation principle enables us to not only capture the risk dynamics over a given time horizon, but also overcome the “cross-subsidizing” effect of many existing allocation principles.     

社会保障税的开征及其制度设计

《中华人民共和国社会保险法》把我国现行社会保障制度及其改革成果以法律形式固定下来,同时也固化了现有社会保障制度的先天缺陷。社会保障制度改革需要建立普遍平等的普惠型基本社会保险制度,并以社会保障税筹集社会保障基金。社会保障税本质上是资本所有者向政府缴纳的劳动力消费税,是资本所有者对其消费劳动力的社会成本补偿。社会保障税按社会保障项目设置,税率设定与社会保障费相衔接,并按社会保险项目在不同层级政府之间合理分配管理权。     

Firm Age,Investment Opportunities,and Job Creation

New firms are an important source of job creation, but the underlying economic mechanisms for why this is so are not well understood. Using an identification strategy that links shocks to local income to job creation in the nontradable sector, we ask whether job creation arises more through new firm creation or through the expansion of existing firms. We find that new firms account for the bulk of net employment creation in response to local investment opportunities. We also find significant gross job creation and destruction by existing firms, suggesting that positive local shocks accelerate churn.