Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model

We extend the classic approach (SIR) to a SEAIRD model with policy controls. A social planner’s objective reflects the trade-off between mortality reduction and GDP, featuring its perception of the value of statistical life (PVSL). We introduce realistic and drastic limitations to the control available to it. Within this setup, we explore the results of various control policies. We notably describe the joint dynamics of infection and economy in different contexts with unique or multiple confinement episodes. Compared to other approaches, our contributions are: (i) to restrict the class of functions accessible to the social planner, and in particular to impose that they remain constant over some fixed periods; (ii) to impose implementation frictions, e.g. a lag in their implementation; (iii) to prove the existence of optimal strategies within this set of possible controls; iv) to exhibit a sudden change in optimal policy as the statistical value of life is raised, from laissez-faire to a sizeable lockdown level, indicating a possible reason for conflicting policy proposals.     

水利水电工程施工企业“三级三全”合同管理模式的研究与实践

合同管理是现代企业经营管理的重要内容之一,合同管理是否妥当,是企业经营成败的关键之一。文章指出合同管理应当实行多层次、全员、全过程、全方位和高效率的动态管理;坚持专业性和综合性相结合的原则,建立“三级三全”合同动态管理模式,设立专门的合同管理机构;制定完善的合同管理制度;加强法律事务和相关职能部门的沟通和协助,实现对合同的有效管理,保证企业生产经营活动的正常开展。     

Gross job flows and institutions in Europe

We examine job flows in the 1990s for a sample of 13 European countries. By using a dataset of continuing firms that covers all sectors, we find firm characteristics to be important determinants of job flows, with smaller and younger firms within services typically having a larger degree of job turnover. Once controlled for firm and sectoral effects, the role of institutions in the dynamics of job creation and destruction is examined. As expected, employment protection is found to reduce job flows. Similarly, countries with higher unemployment benefits and more co-ordinated wage bargaining systems are characterised by lower job flows.     

Residential Enclosure,Power and Relationality: Rethinking Sociopolitical Relations in Southeast Asian Cities

As in many other areas around the globe, enclosed residential spaces have proliferated in Southeast Asia since the 1990s. Recent publications have presented such gated communities as ‘porous enclaves', implying multiple socio‐spatial dynamics of movements through gates and walls. However, the enclave model does not suffice for analyzing the relational dynamics generated by enclosed residential estates. The concept of ‘ecotonal space' and social geography are used to show, in the case of Cambodia's capital Phnom Penh, that the enclosure and its borders are producers and products of multiple social, spatial, economic and political relations, both symbolic and material. Property developers assert their position as an emerging elite in the city's society and politics, a process based on different types of everyday relations they have with the inhabitants of their residential estates and territorial institutions. The enclosed residential estate can serve as a resource for deploying new power relations. Consubstantial with the neopatrimonial nature of the Cambodian economy and politics, this process is a response to the opacity and uncertainty of real estate markets and urban development.     

Motivating faculty through transactional and transformational leadership strategies

The use of both transactional and transformational leadership strategies can have a tremendous impact on the dynamics of organizational agility and subsequent competitive advantage. For educational institutions, organizational agility refers to the ability of administration and faculty to identify, acknowledge, and adapt to factors important to academic quality, quality of instruction, and overall learning experiences. When it comes to motivating faculty performance, both transactional and transformational leadership styles are important. From a transactional perspective, faculty appreciate administrators who clearly communicate both university and departmental goals. For true motivation, administrators must seek to affect faculty on an intrinsic level where personal efficacy is raised through the successful accomplishment of objectives. A model for college steering committees and a specific faculty training program for sharper instructional focus are presented.     

Forecasting ATM cash demands using a local learning model of cerebellar associative memory network

Forecasting cash demands at automatic teller machines (ATMs) is challenging, due to the heteroskedastic nature of such time series. Conventional global learning computational intelligence (CI) models, with their generalized learning behaviors, may not capture the complex dynamics and time-varying characteristics of such real-life time series data efficiently. In this paper, we propose to use a novel local learning model of the pseudo self-evolving cerebellar model articulation controller (PSECMAC) associative memory network to produce accurate forecasts of ATM cash demands. As a computational model of the human cerebellum, our model can incorporate local learning to effectively model the complex dynamics of heteroskedastic time series. We evaluated the forecasting performance of our PSECMAC model against the performances of current established CI and regression models using the NN5 competition dataset of 111 empirical daily ATM cash withdrawal series. The evaluation results show that the forecasting capability of our PSECMAC model exceeds that of the benchmark local and global-learning based models.     

Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model

We evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectations assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant-gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of the model and only learn about the parameters, both expectation mechanisms produce very similar results, and only the transition dynamics that are generated by specific initial beliefs seem to improve the fit. If, instead, agents use only a reduced information set in forming the perceived law of motion, the implied model dynamics change and, depending on the specification of the initial beliefs, the marginal likelihood of the model can improve significantly. These best-fitting models add additional persistence to the dynamics and this reduces the gap between the IRFs of the DSGE model and the more data-driven DSGE-VAR model. However, the learning dynamics do not systematically alter the estimated structural parameters related to the nominal and real frictions in the DSGE model.     

Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation

We extend a continuous-time approximation approach to the analysis of escape dynamics in economic models with constant gain adaptive learning. This approach is based on the application of the results of continuous-time version of large deviations theory to the linear diffusion approximation of the original discrete-time dynamics under learning. We characterize escape dynamics by analytically deriving the most probable escape point and mean escape time. The approximation is tested on the Phelps problem of a government controlling inflation while adaptively learning a misspecified Phillips curve, studied previously by Sargent (1999) and Cho et al. (2002) (henceforth, CWS), among others. We compare our results with simulations extended to very low values of the constant gain and show that, for the lowest gains, our approach approximates simulations relatively well. We express reservations regarding the applicability of any approach based on large deviations theory to characterizing escape dynamics for economically plausible values of constant gain in the model of CWS when escapes are not rare. We show that for these values of the gain it is possible to derive first passage times for learning dynamics reduced to one dimension without resort to large deviations theory. This procedure delivers mean escape time results that fit the simulations closely. We explain inapplicability of large deviations theory by insufficient averaging near the point of self-confirming equilibrium for relatively large gains which makes escapes relatively frequent, suggest the changes which might help approaches based on the theory to work better in this gain interval, and describe a simple heuristic method for determining the range of constant gain values for which large deviations theory could be applicable.     

Learning and coordination with dispersed information

We analyse adaptive learning in a model of incomplete and dispersed information, with externalities and strategic interactions. We build on the framework proposed by Angeletos and Pavan (2007a) and extend it to a dynamic multi-period setting where agents need to learn to coordinate. We derive conditions under which adaptive learning obtains in such setting and show that, when actions are strategic substitutes, the information structure affects the speed of convergence: while more precise private information is beneficial, better public information has negative effects. We also show that adaptive learning dynamics converge to the Bayesian Nash equilibrium, which means that agents can learn to act strategically by relying only on observable (exogenous) information.     

Cultural distance and cross-border bank linkages

This study investigates the effect of cultural distance on global bank linkages using country-pair data for the period 1990–2013. We followed Schwartz (2006) to measure cultural distance, and employed the number of bank pairs involved in cross-border syndicated lending from the source to target countries as a measure of bank linkages. We found that cultural distance has a negative association with bank linkages. This effect is stronger in countries featuring higher informational asymmetries, as represented by weaker institutions, higher uncertainty, or revolution shocks. Our results hold even when employing alternative measures of bank linkages and cultural distance, and when considering the potential endogeneity of cultural distance.     

Learning to bid in sequential Dutch auctions

We propose an agent-based computational model to investigate sequential Dutch auctions with particular emphasis on markets for perishable goods and we take as an example wholesale fish markets. Buyers in these markets sell the fish they purchase on a retail market. The paper provides an original model of boundedly rational behavior for wholesale buyers׳ behavior incorporating learning to improve profits, conjectures as to the bids that will be made and fictitious learning. We analyze the dynamics of the aggregate price under different market conditions in order to explain the emergence of market price patterns such as the well-known declining price paradox and the empirically observed fact that the very last transactions in the day may be at a higher price. The proposed behavioral model provides alternative explanations for market price dynamics to those which depend on standard hypotheses such as diminishing marginal profits. Furthermore, agents learn the option value of having the possibility of bidding in later rounds. When confronted with random buyers, such as occasional participants or new entrants, they learn to bid in the optimal way without being conscious of the strategies of the other buyers. When faced with other buyers who are also learning their behavior still displays some of the characteristics learned in the simpler case even though the problem is not analytically tractable.     

基于委托代理的区域高校协作激励机制设计

区域化的经济发展为区域高等院校协作提供了现实需求,加强高等教育区域协作已经成为必要,而如何设计有效的激励机制是协作成功与否的关键。本文通过建立地方政府和高校之间的协作机制模型,研究了我国区域高等院校协作中的委托代理问题和激励机制设计问题,并通过对模型的优化得到相应的激励机制。     

Determining the optimal market structure using near-zero intelligence traders

We evaluate an agent-based model featuring near-zero-intelligence traders operating in a call market with a wide range of trading rules governing the determination of prices, which orders are executed as well as a range of parameters regarding market intervention by specialists and the presence of informed traders. We optimize these trading rules using a population-based incremental learning algorithm seeking to maximize the trading volume. Our results suggest markets should choose a large tick size and ensure only a small fraction of traders are informed about the order book. The effect of trading rules regarding the determination of prices, priority rules, and specialist intervention, we find to have an ambiguous effect on the outcome.     

Linkage lock-in and regional economic development: the case of the Øresund medi-tech plastics industry

This paper examines the role of interfirm linkages in influencing the dynamics of regional economic development. Developing a conceptual framework, we claim that switching costs (real or perceived) can lock firms into existing linkages with the potential effect of impeding regional economic development. A main argument is that in dynamic and competitive environments a class of switching costs, learning opportunity costs, might arise out of the relative importance of learning and innovation. We apply our framework to understand what goes on in the Øresund medi-tech plastics industry, taking as a starting point the lack of cross-border linkage participation in this industry. Through a case study research design we obtain evidence about the characteristics and dynamics of linkage lock-in and switching costs in this particular context and explain that learning opportunity costs prevail and make increased linkage participation across Øresund tardy. Promising future research arising from the present study includes enquiry into dissimilar industries, the possible intermediating role of third parties and the complementarities of the Danish and Swedish areas with a focus on the potential of cross-border regional specialization. All this would potentially add to a more complete picture of the notion of switching costs.     

技师学院校纳入高等学校序列人才培养方案的研究与设计——以物流管理专业为例

对照高等学校人才培养方案、专业教学标准和人社部颁发的关于技能人才培养、一体化课程规范等文件,分析技师学院与高等学校教育教学系统异同,按照技师学院既要在形式和标准上合规纳入高等学校实现专业对接,又要融合技师学院和高等学校办学优势,创新设计职教新模式的目标,研究设计纳入高等学校序列的技师学院人才培养方案,为实施专业创新建设、培养更高质量的技术技能人才提供保障。     

浅析高校《食品生物技术》教学方法

普通本科院校教学中,由于《食品生物技术》的课程特点以及学生知识面的限制,对教学方法和教学内容都有较高的要求。本文结合实际教学情况,探讨了科学史料、多媒体教学手段和科学研究对于该门课程的重要性,旨在打破传统的教学模式,探索出有利于教学、有助于提高学生学习效率的教学方法。     

Inhabited Actors: Internalizing Institutions through Communication and Actorhood Models

We argue that accounts of relationships among actors, actorhood and institutions are predominantly based on a spatial metaphor of actors operating within institutions. We outline how an inversion of this metaphor – i.e., the perspective that institutions inhabit actors – may prove generative for theory, particularly with respect to recent discussions about the microfoundations of institutions. We outline how communication and actorhood models function as transmission mechanisms of institutions from one actor to another. We conclude with a discussion of how the inverted metaphor of institutions inhabiting actors can be useful for future theoretical developments.     

Non-smooth dynamics and multiple equilibria in a Cournot–Ramsey model with endogenous markups

We consider a Ramsey model with a continuum of Cournotian industries where free entry generates an endogenous markup. The model produces two different regimes, monopolistic and Cournotian monopolistic competition, resulting in non-smooth dynamics. We analyze the global dynamics of the model, demonstrating it may exhibit heteroclinic orbits connecting multiple equilibria. Small transitory changes in parameters can lead to large permanent effects and there can be a poverty trap separating a low-capital and high-markup equilibrium from a high-capital low-markup equilibrium. We apply results from the mathematics of non-smooth dynamic systems, which provide a more general framework for understanding regime switching.     

People,Actors, and the Humanizing of Institutional Theory

In much contemporary institutional scholarship, the term ‘actor’ is used as a shorthand for any entity imbued with agency. Talking about actors in institutions thus serves the necessity of allocating agency before returning to the analysis of institutional structures and processes. We find this approach to actorhood limiting, conceptually and normatively. Grounded in the perspective of pragmatist phenomenology, we assert the need for distinguishing between persons and actors, and the value of integrating the person into institutional analysis. We conceive of persons as humans with a reflective capacity and sense of self, who engage with multiple institutions through the performance of institutional roles. People may acquire actorhood by temporarily aligning their self with what is expected from a particular actor-role in an institutional order. Conversely, institutions enter people’s lifeworld as they are personified in people’s social performances. We outline this perspective and examine conceptual and normative implications that arise from the integration of human experience in institutional analysis.