Risky public domestic debt composition in emerging economies

This paper explains why public domestic debt composition in emerging economies can be risky, namely in foreign currency, with a short maturity or indexed. It analyses empirically the determinants of these risk sources separately, developing a new large dataset compiled from national sources for 33 emerging economies over 1994–2006. The paper finds that economic size, the breadth of the domestic investor base, inflation and fiscal soundness are all associated with risky public domestic debt compositions, yet to an extent that varies considerably in terms of magnitude and significance across sources of risk. Only inflation impacts all types of risky debt, underscoring the overarching importance of monetary credibility to make domestic debt compositions in emerging economies safer. Given local bond markets' rapid development, monitoring risky public domestic debt compositions in emerging economies becomes increasingly relevant to global financial stability.     

Rare event risk and emerging market debt with heterogeneous beliefs

In a setting where the lender and the borrower have heterogeneous beliefs about the likelihood of a disastrous shock to the borrower's economy, we study the debt contract that defaults at the occurrence of that shock, as proposed by Barro (2006). We find that a higher belief by the lender compared to the borrower can lead to countercyclical interest rates and credit spreads in non-default times, and to an increase in the borrower's indebtedness in default times, as often observed in emerging market economies. When calibrating the model to prices in the credit default swap market, we show that heterogeneous beliefs can account for more than 40% of the variation in CDS spreads associated with shocks to the borrower's economy in non-default times.     

Universal bounds for asset prices in heterogeneous economies

We establish universal bounds for asset prices in heterogeneous complete market economies with scale invariant preferences. Namely, for each agent in the economy we consider an artificial homogeneous economy populated solely by this agent, and calculate the “homogeneous” price of an asset in each of these economies. Dumas (Rev. Financ. Stud. 2, 157–188, [1989]) conjectured that the risk free rate in a heterogeneous economy must lie in the interval determined by the minimal and maximal of the “homogeneous” risk free rates. We show that the answer depends on the risk aversions of the agents in the economy: the upper bound holds when all risk aversions are smaller than one, and the lower bound holds when all risk aversions are larger than one. The bounds almost never hold simultaneously. Furthermore, we prove these bounds for arbitrary assets.      

Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information

A technique is presented for deriving equilibrium models of asset risk premia in continuous time models which does not require the complete solution of a consumer's continuous time stochastic control problem. The technique is used to show that even if traders have heterogeneous information about asset returns and/or there are non-traded assets, then the risk premium of a traded asset is determined by the covariance between the asset's return and the rate of change in per capita consumption. We only require the assumption that traders' consumptions and traded asset values form an Ito process.     

A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics

We have created a novel index that classifies U.S. public firms by their leverage choice. Our statistical approach to the construction of this index considers the interaction of all firm characteristics and unpredictable events that shapes the observed leverage choices. We have subsequently associated our estimates of the degree and persistence of short-term and long-term debt fluctuations with pecking-order, market-timing, and static and dynamic trade-off theories. Our index reveals that: (i) one-third of firms have a stationary leverage target, (ii) adjustments to targets are faster for short-term debt, and (iii) the persistence of long-term debt ratios is driven by investment constraints and market conditions.     

Multiple equilibria in a monopoly market with heterogeneous agents and externalities

We explore the effects of social influence in a simple market model in which a large number of agents face a binary choice: to buy/not to buy a single unit of a product at a price posted by a single seller (monopoly market). We consider the case of positive externalities: an agent is more willing to buy if other agents make the same decision. We consider two special cases of heterogeneity in the individuals' decision rules, corresponding in the literature to the Random Utility Models of Thurstone, and of McFadden and Manski. In the first one the heterogeneity fluctuates with time, leading to a standard model in Physics: the Ising model at finite temperature (known as annealed disorder) in a uniform external field. In the second approach the heterogeneity among agents is fixed; in Physics this is a particular case of the quenched disorder model known as a random field Ising model, at zero temperature. We study analytically the equilibrium properties of the market in the limiting case where each agent is influenced by all the others (the mean field limit), and we illustrate some dynamic properties of these models making use of numerical simulations in an Agent based Computational Economics approach. Considering the optimization of the profit by the seller within the case of fixed heterogeneity with global externality, we exhibit a new regime where, if the mean willingness to pay increases and/or the production costs decrease, the seller's optimal strategy jumps from a solution with a high price and a small number of buyers, to another one with a low price and a large number of buyers. This regime, usually modelled with ad hoc bimodal distributions of the idiosyncratic heterogeneity, arises here for general monomodal distributions if the social influence is strong enough.     

Public debt,bailouts, and common bonds

We look at a model where countries of different sizes provide local public goods with positive spillovers. Matching grants can give rise to optimal expenditure levels, but countries can induce bailouts. We study the characteristics of these bailouts in a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium and how these characteristics are affected by the introduction of common bonds. Partial substitution of common for sovereign bonds has two implications. First, it lowers the average and marginal borrowing costs of countries which may be eligible for bailouts. This effect leads to higher borrowing in these countries irrespective of their bailout expectations. Second, the lower borrowing costs mitigate the incentives of countries to induce a bailout and, therefore, constrain the parameter set for which a soft budget constraint equilibrium exists. As a result, the introduction of common bonds can also be in the interest of those countries that provide the bailouts.     

Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents

Standard asset pricing models based on rational expectations and homogeneity have problems explaining the complex and volatile nature of financial markets. Recently, boundedly rational and heterogeneous agent models have been developed and simulated returns are found to exhibit various stylized facts, such as volatility clustering and fat tails. Here, we are interested in how well the proposed models can explain all the properties seen in real data, not just one or a few at a time. Hence, we do a proper estimation of some simple versions of such a model by the use of efficient method of moments and maximum likelihood and compare the results to real data and more traditional econometric models. We discover two main findings. First, the similarities with observed data found in earlier simulations rely crucially on a somewhat unrealistic modeling of the noise term. Second, when the stochastic is more properly introduced the models are still able to generate some stylized facts, but the fit is generally quite poor.     

Capital market equilibrium with externalities, production and heterogeneous agents

The paper studies general equilibrium in an economy with externalities, production and heterogeneous agents. The model developed builds on Brock [Brock, W.A., 1982. Asset prices in a production economy. In: McCall, J.J. (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 1–43] and Merton [Merton, R.C., 1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510]; it involves both a stock market and a market for loans, together with negative externalities produced by a subset of firms. Importantly, the technological production structure of the firms is reflected in the properties of the shares traded in the stock market. Agents are heterogeneous in their financial choices, potentially discriminating against the firms producing a negative externality. The model sheds light on the utility costs of the discriminating behavior and on the impact on the price of the stock issued by the firm which is responsible for the externality. The model is used to study the factors which may magnify or reduce the impact of discrimination. A set of discriminated firms may be seriously affected only if the discriminating investors command a large portion of overall wealth and/or they do not represent important diversification instruments. The model can be applied to understanding the effects of socially responsible investment, whereby investors discriminate against companies belonging to some sectors which are perceived as socially dangerous or unethical.     

Public or private gatekeepers in non-consensual debt restructurings in emerging jurisdictions

In advanced jurisdictions, the choice of a non-consensual debt restructuring is between a public or a private gatekeeper model where either the court or the licensed insolvency professional respectively approves a restructuring plan that binds dissenting creditors. In the United States, the only gateway is found in Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code 1978, which requires court approval and gives the debtor a significant say in the outcome. In contrast, in the United Kingdom, there exist four gateways, only two of which require court approval (scheme of arrangement and restructuring plan), while the remaining two (administration and company voluntary arrangement) give significant powers to the insolvency practitioner to decide on the outcome. In emerging jurisdictions such as Mainland China and India, due to path dependency and lack of institutional capacity, the court-supervised model is chosen as the only or primary gateway to legitimise non-consensual restructurings though the insolvency practitioner has an important statutory role. Using the two jurisdictions as case studies, this article argues that such a choice has several initial benefits but also leads to several problems, including delays in the restructuring, does not necessarily improve substantive outcomes and does not adequately address the shareholder–creditor and creditor–creditor agency costs. This article proposes that for debt restructuring that involves the sale of the business as a going concern, the private gatekeeper should be able to decide on the sale and the distributions following pre-bankruptcy entitlements. Recourse to the court as a public gatekeeper should only be used for reorganisation proceedings.     

Public debt,sovereign default risk and shadow economy

This paper analyzes the interactions between government's indebtedness, sovereign default risk and the size of the informal sector. We test an underlying theory that suggests that in societies with limited tax enforcement, the presence of informality constrains the set of pledgeable fiscal policy alternatives, increases public debt and the implied probability of sovereign debt restructuring. The hypotheses that we test in our empirical analysis are: a larger size of the informal sector is associated with (1) higher public indebtedness, (2) higher interest rates paid on sovereign debt, (3) a higher level of financial instability and (4) a higher probability of sovereign default. The empirical results from cross-country panel regressions show that after controlling for previously highlighted variables in the literature that could explain the variation in financial instability, sovereign default risk and public indebtedness, the size of informality remains as a significant determinant of these variables.     

Dynamic capital structure with callable debt and debt renegotiations

We consider a dynamic trade-off model of a firm's capital structure with debt renegotiation. Debt holders only accept restructuring offers from equity holders backed by threats which are in the equity holders' own interest to execute. Our model shows that in a complete information model in which taxes and bankruptcy costs are the only frictions, violations of the absolute priority rule (APR) are typically optimal. The size of the bankruptcy costs and the equity holders' bargaining power affect the size of APR violations, but they have only a minor impact on the choice of capital structure.     

Credit derivatives with multiple debt issues

We evaluate the most actively traded types of credit derivatives within a unified pricing framework that allows for multiple debt issues. Since firms default on all of their obligations, total debt is instrumental in the likelihood of default and therefore in credit derivatives valuation. We use a single factor interest rate model where the exponential default frontier is based on total debt and is made coherent with observed bond prices. Analytical formulae are derived for credit default swaps, total return swaps (both fixed-for-fixed and fixed-for-floating), and credit risk options (CROs). Price behaviors and hedging properties of all these credit derivatives are investigated. Simulations document that credit derivatives prices may be significantly affected by terms of debt other than those of the reference obligation. The analysis of CROs indicates their superior ability to fine-tune the hedging of magnitude and arrival risks of default.     

Asset pricing in production economies with extrapolative expectations

Introducing extrapolative bias into a standard production-based model with recursive preferences reconciles salient stylized facts about business cycles (low consumption volatility, high investment volatility relative to output) and financial markets (high equity premium, volatile stock returns, low and smooth risk-free rate) with plausible levels of risk aversion and intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Furthermore, the model captures return predictability based upon dividend yield, Q, and investment. Intuitively, extrapolative bias increases the variation in the wealth–consumption ratio, which is heavily priced under recursive preferences; adjustment costs decrease the covariance between marginal utility and asset returns. Empirical support for key implications of the model is also provided.     

Stabilization policies in open economies with imperfect current information

In an open economy with perfect capital mobility the exchange rate and the interest rate may convey different information about current shocks. In a model with one-period wage contracts we explore the information content of the financial signals along with the optimal stabilization policy and how the two may be related. Some self-fulfilling properties of the information structure are encountered, and it is shown that the market clearing level of outputs is generally obtainable while full information output may only be obtained in special cases, where it is a necessary condition that the agents believe the signals are informationally different.     

Asset prices in dynamic production economies with time-varying risk

We examine the effect of changes in output uncertainty on theprice of aggregate capital and on the prices of levered claimson capital. The relation between the volatility of the marginalproduct of capital and the price of capital depends on the levelof capital adjustment costs and the elasticity of intertemporalsubstitution. For available estimates of this elasticity thevalue of capital and risk are directly related while the valueof levered equity claim on capital may be decreasing in risk.We use these results to analyze the argument that increasedrisk was responsible for the U.S. stock market decline of the1970s.     

A simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents,uninsurable labor income and limited stock market participation

In this paper we study a simple two-period asset pricing model to understand the implications of uninsurable labor income risk and/or borrowing constraints, limited stock market participation, heterogeneous labor income volatilities, and heterogeneous preferences. We appraise the performance of each of these in matching moments of asset returns to the data and show that limited stock market participation generates a significantly large equity premium. We also show that the distribution of wealth between stock market participants and non-participants plays an important role in asset pricing, and that the effect of borrowing constraints on asset returns are similar to that of limited participation. Finally, we discuss the practical implications of our investigation, providing an appraisal of ongoing changes in asset returns.     

Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis.     

Innovation capacities in advanced economies: Relative performance of small open economies

This paper offers an empirical examination of the determinants of a nation's ability to produce commercially viable innovations, measured as Patents Granted across a sample of 23 advanced economies. The approach employed is based on estimating National Innovative Capacity that focuses on the long-run ability of economies to produce and/or commercialise innovative technologies, in the spirit of Furman et al. (2002). The time period of our analysis covers 1993 to 2005 and employs panel estimation.Motivated by differences in the rate of innovation between economies with different economic structures we examine the Small Open Economies (SOEs) in our country sample to assess whether there is a significant difference between the determinants of Innovative Capacity in SOEs and the other larger developed economies.We find that advanced SOEs and larger economies do not differ substantially in their determinants of producing innovative technologies and, notwithstanding the limitations of Patents as measures of innovative activity, we conclude that policy choice and variation plays a key role in determining the productivity of R&D, when measured as patenting activity.     

Public debts capitalize into property prices: empirical evidence for a new perspective on debt incidence

In economies with reasonably mobile individuals, the demand for property depends on current as well as future taxes and public services. As a consequence, the current level of public net debts, i.e. public debts minus assets, should capitalize into property prices. While debt capitalization has been unduly disregarded in the academic literature and policy debates, the Swiss Canton of Zurich provides an institutional setting for identification. Our results imply that public net debts capitalize into property prices. The extent of debt capitalization seems to be substantial but it widely varies over estimation strategies. The existence of debt capitalization offers new perspectives on debt incidence.