Permanent and Transitory Driving Forces in the Asian-Pacific Stock Markets

This paper uses weekly data from November 1987 through May 1999 to examine whether U.S. or the Japan stock market (or both) is the main driving force behind major movements in eleven emerging Asian-Pacific stock markets. We find a robust cointegrating relation linking each of the emerging market with the two matured markets of the U.S. and Japan. The results also show that the U.S., rather than Japan, is the main permanent force driving the equilibrium relations across all Asian-Pacific markets. In contrast, the effect of the Japanese market on the Asian-Pacific region is only transitory. Therefore, strategic asset portfolios in the Asian-Pacific region should include Japanese stocks to diversify any country specific risks. As to U.S. investors, the persistent influence of the U.S. market may limit long-run diversification gains from Asian-Pacific stocks.     

Withholding tax rates on dividends: symmetries versus asymmetries or single- versus multi-rated double tax treaties

Out of all double tax treaties (DTTs) in force in 2012, around 41% are symmetric (single-rated) and 59% are asymmetric (multi-rated), i.e., they prescribe different dividend withholding tax rates depending on the foreign investor’s ownership fraction. The paper investigates the reasons for this phenomenon, namely why some countries in their DTTs prefer homogenous withholding tax rates over separate rates for participation and portfolio dividends. In a theoretical model, I demonstrate why home countries may have an interest in a high withholding tax rate in the host country, even though they do not receive the revenue from this tax. Further, I find confirming evidence that a reason for having multi-rated withholding taxes on dividends is an existing spatial dependence on the rates of the countries’ peers that may be a driving factor for setting multi-rated taxes. Finally, I confirm that the spread itself (i.e., the difference between the portfolio and participation dividends negotiated in the tax treaty) is also affected by the peer countries.

     

全球化：前景、潜力与问题

本文扼要阐述了经济全球化发展的前景和潜力,并运用李嘉图模型对全球化可能导致的经济损害作出论证分析进而说明,尽管经济学家在极大程度上趋向于将全球化视为基本良性的现象,但全球化仍然对某些国家（包括发达国家）带来经济损害,及对部分人群可能造成极其痛苦的后果。不过,源自于全球化的不断增长的竞争压力,会加强创新和增长,从长远来看,的确对每个国家有利。     

未来20年国际金融格局演进的推动因素与新特征

肇始于美国的全球金融危机凸显旧有国际金融秩序的弊端,并加快了全球经济重心格局的演变,势必对未来国际金融格局产生重大影响。该文指出,受全球经济重心转移、全球化浪潮、人口老龄化差异以及技术革命推动金融周期演变这四大主要因素的推动,未来10～20年国际金融格局的新特征主要表现在：国际金融力量对比、国际移民与金融资本流动的模式将发生新变化;在金融业发展新周期中,银行业进入平稳发展阶段。     

Globalization,exports, and effective exchange rate indices

This paper offers a new way of compiling effective exchange rate indices, which is then shown to perform generally better in prototype equations explaining total real exports than other published indices. Researchers can use this method to compile effective exchange rates, real or nominal, readily for any country. The generally superior performance, based on cointegration tests using data from four major economies, four Latin American countries, and four South East Asian countries, suggests the proposed index which uses GDP weights rather than trade weights, is more appropriate in a highly globalized world. Intensified globalization in the past two decades appears indicated by the higher elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate over time.     

Variety of pattern of the post-fordist economy: Why are the ‘old times’ still with us and the ‘new times’ yet to come?

Despite the complex changes which the economies of the most industrialized countries have undergone, current interpretations of the evolution of the economic system remain extraordinarily simplistic. The popular view has been that ‘Fordism’, at the heart of the continued development of the capitalist world since World War II, is no longer the driving force of the economy. This article challenges the all too simplistic view of the ‘old’ and ‘new’ times thesis, arguing that transformations occurring in the post-Fordist societies incorporate elements of the old system. On the contrary, in many cases old and new are blurred together. The article discusses the features of a variety of models of the post-Fordist economy, in terms of the ‘governance’ of different production systems where a massive debureaucratization of work is occurring, together with the globalization of local economic systems.     

Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification

This paper looks at the determinants of country and industry specific factors in international portfolio returns using a sample of forty eight countries and thirty nine industries over the last three decades. Country factors have remained relatively stable over the sample period while industry factors have significantly increased during the last decade and dropped again since 2000. The importance of industry and country factors is correlated with measures of economic and financial international integration and development. We find that financial market globalization is the main driving force behind the changes in relative magnitude of the different shocks. Country factors are smaller for countries integrated in world financial markets and have declined as the degree of financial integration and the number of countries pursuing financial liberalization has increased. Higher international financial integration within an industry increases the importance of industry factors in explaining returns. Economic integration of production also helps in explaining returns. Countries with a more specialized production activity have higher country shocks.     

Foreign Property Shocks and the Impact on Domestic Securitized Real Estate Markets: An Unobserved Components Approach

As the globalization of world financial markets continues unabated the issue of benefits arising from international diversification becomes increasingly important. Due to the fixed geographical nature of the underlying product, securitized property might be considered immune from the effects of globalization, and to this extent researchers have considered the issue of international property market interdependence using a variety of statistical procedures. In this paper the question of interdependence across securitized property markets is examined by combining the Inoue (1999) cointegration methodology with the structural time series procedure of Harvey (1989). In the event of commonality of movement across property markets, this approach permits the researcher to isolate and visualize common movement, an operation that may be helpful to a portfolio manager trying to understand cross market activity. The results indicate that there is some unifying force across international property markets and that this unifying force may stem from the United States. The results also suggest that, at least to some extent, shocks to securitized property markets produce a similar response to stock market shocks.     

Oil at 150$—The tipping point for changing course of civilizations?

The present work offers a systemic perspective on post conventional oil futures. It is based on the model that accounts for a causal relationship between a dominant worldview in a society and the societal choice of technology and institutions, which then constrain and direct dynamics at the level of production and consumption. The Business as usual scenario provides an idea as where the world might be heading under the assumption of a myopic and unchanging worldview. The Western group leads the process of change scenario describes an evolutionary cascade of change in the Western group, which starts with a substantial change in a dominant worldview. Note that this substantial change is not a revolution – although its institutional solutions appear very challenging today, they do not necessarily stand out of the capitalist democracy. Finally, the third scenario is about global governance – a future that would leave least unknowns and least threats to Western civilization.     

Do industries matter in explaining stock returns and asset-pricing anomalies?

Industry returns cannot be explained fully by well-known asset pricing models. This study reveals that common factors extracted from industry returns carry significant risk premiums that go beyond the explanatory power of size, book-to-market (BM) ratios, and momentum. In particular, this study shows that (1) the small-firm effect is significant only for firms whose market capitalization is below their industry average; (2) the BM effect is an intra-industry phenomenon; (3) a one-year momentum effect is significant only for firms whose BM ratio is smaller than the industry average and limited to non-January months; and (4) there is seasonality in all effects that cannot be explained by risk-based asset-pricing models. Neither rational nor behavioral theories alone can explain industry returns, and it is perhaps too hasty to attribute asset pricing anomalies to a single driving force.     

Financial market globalization,nonconvergence and credit cycles

This paper explores the dynamic consequences of variable investment-project size in a global economy consisting of many small open countries that are plagued with domestic credit market frictions. As is customary in the literature, borrowers provide some internal funds, but they also need external funds to implement their investment projects, which are subject to the costly-state-verification problem. Contrary to the literature, the investment-project size increases with the country’s own capital stock. We find that financial market globalization may lead to a process of oscillatory convergence, even in the absence of any exogenous shocks, if the investment-project size is very sensitive to the change in capital stock.     

基于经济转型产业升级研究(英文)

中国正处于经济转型产业升级的关键时期,有很多制约障碍需要突破,有很多关键问题需要解决。本文试从产业升级是经济转型的内驱力,经济转型理论支撑产业升级,促进经济转型产业升级战略和产业升级方式四个方面进行阐述。     

The future of tourism and globalization: Some critical remarks

Present-day generalizations on the future of tourism see it as a key force in the process of globalization. This paper challenges this notion by pointing out that our knowledge of the real shape of world travel and tourism is still quite limited and that the sketchy evidence we can gather with present-day tools thus presents a much more modest picture confronting the claim that tourism has reached a high level of globalization. While it is an activity practiced all over the world, it is scarcely global. In this sense, the perception that tourism is wholeheartedly global and that it mainly connects the richer parts of the world with the poorest pleasure peripheries is but a figment of the post-romantic collective imagination that dominates much tourism research.     

Electronic Finance: Reshaping the Financial Landscape Around the World

In recent years, the emergence of electronic finance—especially online banking and brokerage services, and new trading systems—has reshaped the financial landscape around the world. This paper reviews these developments and finds that they are greatly impacting the structure of and competition in financial services industries and will have a large impact on incumbents. Its assessment of how e-finance, and globalization more generally, affects countries highlights the need for changes in four financial sector policy areas—safety and soundness, competition policy, consumer and investor protection, and global public policies—to mitigate risks and reap as much as possible the potential benefits of e-finance.     

政府干预、大股东资产注入:支持抑或掏空

政府干预企业经营活动是普遍存在的现象。本文研究了国有控股上市公司资产注入中的"支持"、"掏空"现象。研究发现,政府控股股东比民营控股股东资产注入的动机更强烈。当上市公司盈利时,政府控股股东通过向上市公司注入资产"掏空"上市公司的动机比民营控股股东更加强烈,从而导致盈利的国有控股上市公司在资产注入之后业绩下降更多;而当政府控股上市公司被ST时,政府控股股东通过向国有控股上市公司注入资产"支持"上市公司的动机和力度比民营控股股东更加强烈,从而导致ST国有控股上市公司在资产注入之后业绩增长更快。     

Causes,benefits, and risks of business tax incentives

This paper provides an updated overview of tax incentives for business investment. It argues that tax competition is likely to be a major force driving countries’ tax reforms, and discusses tax incentives as a possible response to this. This is complemented by more detailed arguments for and against tax incentives, and by an illustrative analysis of different incentives using effective tax rates. Findings from the empirical literature on tax incentives are also presented. Based on the overview of theoretical and empirical findings, the paper then suggests a matrix of criteria to determine the usefulness of different tax incentives depending on a country’s circumstances.     

Anticipating transitions beyond the current mobility regimes: How acceptability matters

Today's car-based transportation systems require a transition toward sustainability. This is particularly the case in suburban areas, where the costs for introducing a new transportation system are high due to the low population density. At the same time the negative externalities of the current mobility regime – such as health costs and congestions – are increasing rapidly. Based on expert interviews with car manufacturers, transportation authorities, environmental groups, and scientists we identify two visionary characteristics of future, more sustainable transportation systems: automated driving and sharing. Using these two characteristics, we apply the scenario-axes technique to develop four mobility scenarios for a suburban context that range from business-as-usual to a radical and more sustainable one. In an evaluation with ten criteria that measure a scenario's performance from a user perspective, the radical scenario performs worst since it does not meet current individualistic user requirements. Our findings suggest that lock-ins of users’ expectations act as barriers for the diffusion of novel transportation systems. These barriers cannot be overcome by technological innovations and regulation alone. Hence, we call for innovative arenas, wherein technology and user acceptability could co-evolve.     

Differences and similaritites between corporate governance principles in Islamic banks and Conventional banks

The purpose of this paper is to present the some differences and similarities between corporate governance principles in Islamic banks and conventional banks by paradigmatic diversification. Since Corporate governance in Islamic banks is a social phenomenon in Islamic societies, the paper uses social theory paradigms (functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist and radical structuralist) to compare between corporate governance in Islamic banks and conventional banks. This paper demonstrates that mainstream corporate corporate governance theories are not a law of nature but a social construct.     

Turning gadflies into allies

Multinational companies are the driving force behind globalization, but they are also the source of many of its most painful consequences, including currency crises, cross-border pollution, and overfishing. These problems remain unsolved because they are beyond the scope of individual governments; transnational organizations have also proved unequal to the task. Nonprofit, nongovernmental organizations have leaped into the breach. To force policy changes, they have seized on all forms of modern persuasion to influence public sentiment toward global traders, manufacturers, and investors. By partnering with NGOs instead of opposing them, companies can avoid costly conflict and can use NGOs' assets to gain competitive advantage. So far, however, most companies have proved ill equipped to deal with NGOs. Large companies know how to compete on the basis of product attributes and price. But NGO attacks focus on production methods and their spillover effects, which are often noneconomic. Similarly, NGOs are able to convert companies' standard competitive strengths--such as size and wide market awareness of their brands--into liabilities. That's because the wealthier and better known a company is, the juicier the target it makes. Emboldened by their successes, NGOs continue to take on new causes. By partnering with NGOs instead of reflexively opposing them, companies could draw on NGOs' key strengths--legitimacy, awareness of social forces, distinct networks, and specialized technical expertise--which most companies could use more of. And with NGOs as allies and guides, companies should also be able to accelerate innovation, foresee shifts in demand, shape legislation affecting them, and, in effect, set technical and regulatory standards for their industries.     

Herding and excessive risk in the American stock market: A sectoral analysis

This paper aims to test whether herding behavior is a driving force of excessive market volatility and increasing bubbles in the US stock market at a sectoral level. Trading volume turnover and investors’ sentiment are ubiquitous factors besides market return to fuel herding movement in most sectors. Our sample covers all listed companies in the American stock market over four major turmoil periods. Granger causality test shows that herding is a vital ingredient to increasing bubbles in some sectors, but not all. Moreover, herding and trading volume have an inhibiting effect on both overall and in-sector market volatility in large markets, as opposed to concentrated markets commonly studied in the literature.