Reemployment wages and UI liquidity effect: a regression discontinuity approach

This paper puts together the non-distortionary liquidity effect of unemployment insurance and job match quality. We identify a big impact on subsidized unemployment duration and a small impact on wages on the job that follows the unemployment spell. Wage gains are heterogeneous and concentrated on individuals at the bottom of the pre-unemployment income distribution. The non-distortionary nature of the liquidity effect reduces the pressure on low-income workers to accept lower productivity jobs.

Premium subsidies and demand for private health insurance: results from a regression discontinuity design

This article investigates the impact of a private health insurance (PHI) subsidy on the demand for PHI in the context of the Australian health care system. In particular, we focus on the subpopulation of elderly Australians and exploit discontinuous increases to the universal ‘PHI rebate’ that occur when people turn 65 and 70 years. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find the policy has little effect on take-up of PHI and is best interpreted as a wealth transfer to elderly Australians who already have insurance.     

The deterrent effects of the penalty points system for driving offences: a regression discontinuity approach

Using data on road accidents, traffic fatalities and driving offences taking place in Italy over the period 2001–2005, we estimate the effects of the introduction on July 2003 of a penalty points system for driving offences. To identify the causal effect of the penalty points system (PPS) on road safety we use a regression discontinuity design. It emerges that, controlling for weather conditions, police patrols, speed cameras, gasoline price, unemployment rate, the introduction of the PPS has led to a reduction of about 9 % of road accidents and of about 30 % of traffic fatalities. These findings are robust to different specifications of the model and different time windows. Moreover, it emerges that the driving offences for which the introduction of the new regime has determined a sharp change in the sanction scheme have reacted more than offences for which the change was less relevant.     

Bayes prediction density and regression estimation — A semiparametric approach

This paper is concerned with the Bayes estimation of an arbitrary multivariate density,f(x), x ? R ^k. Such anf(x) may be represented as a mixture of a given parametric family of densities {h (x¦θ)} with support inR ^k, whereθ (inR ^d) is chosen according to a mixing distributionG. We consider the semiparametric Bayes approach in whichG, in turn, is chosen according to a Dirichlet process prior with given parameterα. We then specialize these results whenf is expressed as a mixture of multivariate normal densitiesΦ (x¦Μ, λ) whereΜ is the mean vector and λ is the precision matrix. The results are finally applied to estimating a regression parameter.     

A regression discontinuity approach to measuring the effectiveness of oil and natural gas regulation to address the common-pool externality

Oil and natural gas reservoirs typically span multiple productive leases so that no owner has rights to the entire stock of resource, resulting in production externalities. Previous literature has examined the effectiveness of government regulation in Texas and Oklahoma in abating these externalities, finding Oklahoma to be more successful in unifying common pools and securing property rights. Using regression discontinuity design, we quantify the impact of regulatory difference between the two states. We find that Oklahoma produces an average of 3361 more barrels of oil over the life of a well, relative to Texas. Given the maturity of the fields in question, the result underscores the continuing importance of addressing common pool externalities even after the primary phase of recovery has largely been completed.     

商品生产、流通、消费连续性及其会计核算连续性分析

在会计主体假设下,商品生产、流通、消费的会计核算一般不具有连续性。而商品生产、流通、消费是前后逻辑相关的连续过程,若以商品为主体来分析,商品生产、流通、消费的会计核算在逻辑上也具有连续性,并可全面完整反映商品的会计核算,保证会计信息的可靠、相关、全面。     

Budgets,expenditure composition and political manipulation

Abstract

This paper analyses the presence of political cycles in Portuguese Governments’ expenditures using monthly data over the period 1991–2013 for the main categories of government expenditures. The results indicate that Portuguese Governments act opportunistically regarding the budget surplus and that they favour capital instead of current spending near to the elections. Moreover, right-wing governments are more prone to reduce expenditures and deficits after the elections than left-wing ones. A deeper disaggregated analysis of the components of government expenditures corroborates these findings while disentangling other relevant patterns of political manipulation in Portugal.     

标准普尔的公司治理评分——标准、方法论、定义

2000年下半年,标准普尔公司开始向市场提供一项新的商业服务——公司治理评分。在1999—2000年,标准普尔的公司治理服务部门完成了一项小规模的实验性项目,即对俄罗斯的Vimpelcom,Rostelecom,Sibneft等5家公司的治理状况进行了评分。结果表明,标准普尔的这项新服务对公司和俄罗斯市场上的投资者都是有益的,同时使标准普尔能够更好地调整其为全球的公司进行评估的标准。标准普尔这一新的业务为公司治理理论的实证分析提供了可资借鉴的因素。有人甚至将这一评分体系称为公司治理理论的“最新进展”之一。本文对此进行了全面的介绍。     

Glatiramer acetate and interferon beta-1a for intramuscular administration: a study of outcomes among multiple sclerosis intent-to-treat and persistent-use cohorts

Abstract

Objective:

To study outcomes of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients treated with either glatiramer acetate (Copaxone) or interferon beta-1a for once-weekly, intramuscular administration (Avonex).

Methods:

An ‘intent-to-treat’ (ITT) cohort (n?=?1282) was established, consisting of patients diagnosed with MS who began therapy on either glatiramer acetate (GA) or intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IFN beta-1a-IM) and had continuous insurance coverage from 6 months before to 24 months after the date when they began taking the medication. A ‘persistent use’ (PU) cohort (n?=?639) was also constructed, consisting of individuals who, in addition to the criteria listed above, had a claim for GA or IFN beta-1a-IM within 28 days of the end of the 2-year post-period. Data were obtained from the i3 InVision Data Mart Database from July 2001 to June 2006. Multivariate regressions were used to examine both the 2-year total direct medical costs and the likelihood of relapse associated with the use of each of these alternative MS medications. A relapse was defined as either being hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of MS or having an outpatient visit with a MS diagnosis followed within 7 days by a claim for a corticosteroid. All regressions controlled a wide range of factors that may potentially affect outcomes.

Results:

In the ITT cohort, patients who started therapy on GA had a significantly lower 2-year risk of relapse (10.01 vs. 5.18%; p?=?0.0034) as well as significantly lower 2-year total medical costs ($44,201 vs. $41,121; p?=?0.0294). In the PU cohort, patients who used GA also had a significantly lower 2-year risk of relapse (7.25 vs. 2.16%; p?=?0.0048) as well as significantly lower total medical costs ($67,744 vs. 63,714; p?=?0.0445).

Limitations:

The analyses relies on an administrative claims database of an insured population and hence, may not be generalizeable to other populations. In addition, such a database precludes measurement of lost work time, unemployment, caregiver burden or other costs associated with MS.

Conclusions:

Results from this study indicate that the use of GA is associated with significantly lower probability of relapse as well as significantly lower 2-year total direct medical costs than IFN beta-1a-IM.     

Efficient tests for normality,homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals

We use the Lagrange multiplier procedure to derive efficient joint tests for residual normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence. The tests are simple to compute and asymptotically distributed as χ².     

Testing for normality in linear regression models using regression and scale equivariant estimators

In this paper we provide a general solution to the problem of controlling the probability of a type I error in normality tests for the disturbances in linear regressions when using robust-regression residuals. We show that many classes of well-known robust regression estimators belong to the class of regression and scale equivariant estimators. It is these equivariance properties that are used to reduce the nuisance parameter space under the null, from which we develop Monte Carlo and Maximized Monte Carlo tests for the null of disturbance normality. Finally, we illustrate in a simulation experiment the potential power gains from using robust-regression residuals in testing this null hypothesis.     

The relations among accounting conservatism,institutional investors and earnings manipulation

Most scholars have indicated corporations using accounting conservatism to reduce earnings manipulation, although certain scholars believe that firms have more incentive to increase earnings manipulation. Institutional investors play an important external monitoring role, and affect firm's earnings manipulation. Previous studies adopted accruals as an earnings manipulation proxy to detect the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation. We further investigate the relationship among accounting conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings, and earnings manipulation by using Benford's law. Our results indicate that firms with more conservative financial reporting have less probability of engaging in earnings-manipulative activities. We also find the negative association between earnings management and institutional investor shareholdings. However, if corporate financial statements tend toward conservatism, institutional investor shareholdings could increase managers' incentive to manage earnings. Our findings have important implications for investors to make investment decisions.     

Pricing accuracy,liquidity and trader behavior with closing price manipulation

We study the effects of closing price manipulation in an experimental market to evaluate the social harm caused by manipulation. We find that manipulators, given incentives similar to many actual manipulation cases, decrease price accuracy and liquidity. The mere possibility of manipulation alters market participants’ behavior, leading to reduced liquidity. We find evidence that ordinary traders attempt to profitably counteract manipulation. This study provides examples of the strategies employed by manipulators, illustrates how these strategies change in the presence of detection penalties and assesses the ability of market participants to identify manipulation.     

Not quite the best response: truth-telling,strategy-proof matching,and the manipulation of others

Following the advice of economists, school choice programs around the world have lately been adopting strategy-proof mechanisms. However, experimental evidence presents a high variation of truth-telling rates for strategy-proof mechanisms. We crash test the connection between the strategy-proofness of the mechanism and truth-telling. We employ a within-subjects design by making subjects take two simultaneous decisions: one with no strategic uncertainty and one with some uncertainty and partial information about the strategies of other players. We find that providing information about the out-of-equilibrium strategies played by others has a negative and significant effect on truth-telling rates. That is, most participants in our within-subjects design try and fail to best-respond to changes in the environment. We also find that more sophisticated subjects are more likely to play the dominant strategy (truth-telling) across all the treatments. These results have potentially important implications for the design of markets based on strategy-proof matching mechanisms.     

Efficient tests for normality,homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals: Monte Carlo Evidence

In this paper we study the performance of various tests for normality (N), homoscedasticity (H) and serial independence (I) of regression residuals (u) under one, two and three directional departures from H_O:u～NHI.     

The impact of collinearity on regression analysis: the asymmetric effect of negative and positive correlations

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain how collinearity in general, and the sign of correlations in specific, affect parameter inference, variable omission bias, and their diagnostic indices in regression. It is found that collinearity can reduce parameter variance estimates and that positive and negative correlation structures have an asymmetric effect on variable omission bias. It is also shown that the effects of collinearity are moderated by the relationship between the dependent variable and the regressors, a consideration not incorporated into most commonly used collinearity diagnostics. The formulae derived enable researchers to assess the sensitivity of regression results to the underlying correlation structure in the data.     

Efficient realized variance, regression coefficient, and correlation coefficient under different sampling frequencies

Efficiency of the realized variance of an asset is improved by taking advantage of another asset whose return is cross-sectionally correlated with that of the asset and is less sensitive to market microstructure noises permitting higher frequency sampling than the original asset.