TIME DIVERSIFICATION: AN ESSAY ON THE NEED TO REVISIT FINANCE THEORY

In 1985 Findlay and Williams offered a cogent critique of mainstream finance theory and of the need to revisit its framework of assumptions. They argued that the assumptions of the mainstream finance theory are manifestly contradicted by observation. They further contended that in the field of finance the basic positivist notion that ”assumptions do not matter if the model works” has been subverted into the notion that “assumptions cannot be criticised so long as the model cannot be shown not to work”. They predicted that since many models cannot be rejected, this posture could only lead to intellectual stalemate between supporters of opposing models. In spite of this prediction they offered no concrete examples of the types of stalemate that might develop; instead they addressed the whole field of finance and consequently their criticisms and recommendations were very general in nature.$PThe purpose of this essay is to provide a detailed analysis of the specific issue of time diversification in investment as an example of an intellectual stalemate between prominent academics employing the mainstream approach to finance theory and the majority of investment practitioners. The intention is to use this example as an illustration of the need to revisit the arguments of Findlay and Williams and the underlying framework of mainstream finance theory. In conclusion, in the spirit of Findlay and Williams, the important example of time diversification offers firm evidence of the need to revisit finance theory and to adopt a more behavioural stance towards its development.     

Diversifying finance research: From financialization to sustainability

This paper seeks to overcome the apparent contradictions between global demand for sustainability and the structure of conventional financial discourse by putting forth a strategy for diversifying academic finance. It comprises four sections. I first situate academic finance within the broader spectrum of social sciences and highlight its ontological, epistemological and methodological assumptions. Second, I show that these assumptions, taken for granted within the field of finance, are the object of much debate within other fields – as is demonstrated by controversy regarding logical positivism, social ontology and performativity – which brings out the limitations of paradigmatic unity in finance. Third, I characterize diversification in finance with reference to the nested epistemological structure of scientific discourse. I argue that diversification is a process by which (i) finance research is extended to other existing paradigms in social sciences; (ii) new research metaphors are developed within the current paradigm; and (iii) puzzle-solving robustness is achieved. Fourth, I develop a research agenda for the diversification of academic finance. This agenda is broken down into themes, paradigmatic hypotheses, and research questions.     

Risk and the miller equilibrium: Capital structure choice with risk-averse investors

Merton Miller's (1977) tax model of equilibrium capital structure choice results in capital structure irrelevance and the existence of tax clienteles, assuming the restrictive case of risk-neutrality. Relaxation of the assumption of risk-neutrality in Miller's tax framework, allowing utility-maximizing risk-averse investors, indicates that capital structure irrelevance continues to hold under reasonable assumptions about utility. Evaluation of resulting tax clienteles shows that marginal tax rates do not restrict investors from investing in equities but do affect the tax status of purchased bonds.     

Positivism in finance and its implication for the diversification finance research: Diversifying finance research: From financialization to sustainability

This paper is a complementary comment to the article recently published in IRFA by Thomas Lagoarde-Segot on the necessity of diversification of modelling in finance. In his claim, the author explained that financial concepts used by the mainstream are not neutral because they refer to a particular ethical judgement mainly focused on the shareholders' interest. In this comment, I explain that this ethical judgement historically results from the role playing by the Gaussian distribution in finance: while this statistical framework gave the first scientific foundations to finance in the 1960s, its symmetrical configuration implies that negative changes occur with the same probability than positive ones. In this context, all potential intervention (regulation) could only interfere (disturb) this “ethically fair situation” within the only perturbing element is the shareholder whose behaviours are likely to influence the market. After having explained that this reasoning is based on an a priori statement about observational facts (in opposition with positivism), I present this situation as an opportunity for current researchers in finance to clarify their implicit assumptions; which would open the door to a diversification of modelling in finance as Lagoarde-Segot promoted it in his IRFA article.     

三种资本市场假说介评

西方金融投资学的主流观点是以有效市场假说为基础 ,以均衡、线性思维、标准计量模型优化求解为主要特征的。它们受到广泛的实证检验,是现代资本市场理论的基石。协同市场假说尤其是分形市场假说等新的更为广义的非线性理论的出现 ,为资本市场研究和投资策略设计开创了一种新视角和新方法 ,并可能重新构造资本市场理论框架     

Presidential Address: Collateral and Commitment

Optimal dynamic capital structure choice is fundamentally a problem of commitment. In a standard trade‐off setting with shareholder‐debtholder agency conflicts, full commitment counterfactually predicts the firm would rely almost exclusively on debt financing. Conversely, absent commitment a Modigliani‐Miller‐like value irrelevance and policy indeterminacy result holds. Thus, the content of dynamic trade‐off theory must depend on the commitment technology. In this context, collateral is valuable as a low‐cost commitment device. Because ex ante optimal commitments are likely to be suboptimal ex post, observed capital structure dynamics will exhibit hysteresis and depart significantly from standard predictions.     

Presidential Address: Pension Policy and the Financial System

In this paper, I examine the effect of pension policy on the structure of financial systems around the world. In particular, I explore the hypothesis that policies that promote pension savings also promote the development of capital markets. I present a model that endogenizes the extent to which savings are intermediated through banks or capital markets, and derive implications for corporate finance, household finance, banking, and the size of the financial sector. I then present a number of facts that are broadly consistent with the theory and examine a variety of alternative explanations of my findings.     

Capital Structures in Developing Countries

This study uses a new data set to assess whether capital structure theory is portable across countries with different institutional structures. We analyze capital structure choices of firms in 10 developing countries, and provide evidence that these decisions are affected by the same variables as in developed countries. However, there are persistent differences across countries, indicating that specific country factors are at work. Our findings suggest that although some of the insights from modern finance theory are portable across countries, much remains to be done to understand the impact of different institutional features on capital structure choices.     

THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE PUZZLE: ANOTHER LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE

Since the formulation of the M & M irrelevance propositions 40 years ago, financial economists have been debating whether there is such a thing as optimal capital structure—a proportion of debt to equity that maximizes current firm value. Some finance scholars have followed M & M by arguing that both capital structure and dividend policy are largely “irrelevant” in the sense that they have no significant, predictable effects on corporate market values. Another school of thought holds that corporate financing choices reflect an attempt by corporate managers to balance the tax shields and disciplinary benefits of greater debt against the increased probability and costs of financial distress. Yet another theory says that companies do not have capital structure targets, but instead follow a financial pecking order in which retained earnings are preferred to outside financing, and debt is preferred to equity when outside funding is required. In reviewing the evidence that has accumulated since M & M, the authors argue that taxes, bankruptcy (and other “contracting”) costs, and information costs (the main factor in the pecking order theory) all appear to play an important role in corporate financing decisions. While much if not most of the evidence is consistent with the argument that companies set target leverage ratios, there is also considerable support for the pecking order theory's contention that firms are willing to deviate widely from their targets for long periods of time. According to the authors, the key to reconciling the different theories—and thus to solving the capital structure puzzle—lies in achieving a better understanding of the relation between corporate financing stocks (leverage ratios) and flows (specific choices between debt and equity). Even if companies have target leverage ratios, there will be an optimal deviation from those targets—one that will depend on the transactions and information costs associated with adjusting back to the target relative to the costs of deviating from the target. As the authors argue in closing, a complete theory of capital structure must take account of these adjustment costs and how they affect expected deviations from the target.     

RETHINKING RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper presents a theory of corporate risk management that attempts to go beyond the "variance-minimization" model that dominates most academic discussions of the subject. It argues that the primary goal of risk management is not to dampen swings in corporate cash flows or value, but rather to provide protection against the possibility of costly lower-tail outcomes –situations that would cause financial distress or make a company unable to carry out its investment strategy. (In the jargon of finance specialists, risk management can be viewed as the purchase of well-out-of-the-money put options designed to limit downside risk.)
By eliminating downside risk and reducing the expected costs of financial trouble, risk management can also help a company to achieve both its optimal capital structure and its optimal ownership structure. For, besides increasing corporate debt capacity, the reduction of downside risk also encourages larger equity stakes for managers by shielding their investments from "uncontrollables."
The paper also departs from standard finance theory in suggesting that some companies may have a comparative advantage in bearing certain financial market risks–an advantage that derives from information acquired through their normal business activities. Although such specialized information may lead some companies to take speculative positions in commodities or currencies, it is more likely to encourage "selective" hedging, a practice in which the risk manager's "view" of future price movements influences the percentage of the exposure that is hedged.
But, to the extent that such view-taking becomes an accepted part of a company's risk management program, it is important to evaluate managers' bets on a risk-adjusted basis and relative to the market. If risk managers want to behave like money managers, they should be evaluated like money managers.     

动态资本资产定价理论评述

本文主要讨论了动态资产定价理论的产生和发展.默顿和布里登使用贝尔曼开创的动态规划方法和伊藤随机分析技术,重新考察在由随机过程驱动的不确定环境下,个人如何连续地做出消费/投资决策,使得终身效用最大化.无须单期框架中的严格假定,他们也获得了连续时间跨期资源配置的一般均衡模型--时际资产定价模型(ICAPM)以及消费资产定价模型(CCAPM).这些工作开启了连续时间金融方法论的新时代.     

资产定价:理论演进及应用研究

资产定价理论是现代金融理论的核心.本文通过对资产定价理论的综述,揭示了从传统资产定价理论到行为资产定价理论的演进脉络,并对各理论及相应模型的内涵和应用进行了描述,最后对传统资产定价理论和行为资产定价理论进行了比较,以期对我国金融理论和实践的发展有所帮助.     

Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure

This study finds shortcomings in empirical tests of the capital structure irrelevance hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that firms choose value maximizing mixes of debt and equity on account of bankruptcy costs and the tax deductibility of interest payments. Based upon the cross-sectional implications of the tax shelter-bankruptcy cost hypothesis, an alternative test of the irrelevance hypothesis is performed. The test examines the relationship between failure rates and leverage ratios for 36 lines of business. The results are inconsistent with the irrelevance hypothesis.     

Incorporating Competition into the APV Technique for Valuing Leveraged Transactions

According to a recent survey, the discounted cash flow approach is the valuation technique most widely used by companies evaluating acquisition targets. But because the DCF approach is inappropriate when the capital structure is changing during the forecast period, many analysts turn to the adjusted present value (APV) approach, which can easily accommodate a changing capital structure. Still, the finance literature has not shown how to incorporate assumptions about the effect of competition in the post-forecast period into an APV analysis.
This paper provides two new tools for calculating horizon values with changing leverage and competition. First, it provides a new model, based on more realistic assumptions, for valuing a growing annuity of free cash flows when ROIC is expected to decline due to competition. Second, it provides a model for valuing tax shields that correctly incorporates the impact of competition in the post-forecast period. When used together with the APV approach, these two new tools allow an analyst to estimate the value of a company with a changing capital structure that faces competition in the post-forecast period.     

Capital investment and momentum strategies

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether capital investment can affect stock price momentum. We provide empirical evidence that momentum strategies tend to be more profitable for stocks with large capital investment or investment changes. We present a simple explanation for our empirical results and show that our finding is consistent with the behavioral finance theory that characterizes investors?? increased psychological bias and the more limited arbitrage opportunity when the estimation of firm value becomes more difficult or less accurate.     

公共部门理财学科的兴起与建设

随着我国政府职能转变和非营利组织的不断发展,公共资金的管理问题倍受社会公众关注,也成为学术研究的热点。但是,从教育层面来说,高等学校关于公共部门理财学科的建设比较滞后,存在理论交叉、课程互相取代和不完整的状况。本文从公共部门理财学科的兴起历程研究公共部门不同理财课程的内涵和外延,提出高校相关专业应当在背景学科、基础学科和核心学科三个层面设置公共部门理财类课程,以完善公共部门理财学科的课程体系,为培养复合型人才服务。     

A Look Back at Modern Finance: Accomplishments and Limitations

In a conversation held in June 2016 between Nobel laureate Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago and Joel Stern, chairman and CEO of Stern Value Management, Professor Fama revisited some of the landmarks of “modern finance,” a movement that was launched in the early 1960s at Chicago and other leading business schools, and that gave rise to Efficient Markets Theory, the Modigliani‐Miller “irrelevance” propositions, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. These concepts and models are still taught at prestigious business schools, whose graduates continue to make use of them in corporations and investment firms throughout the world. But while acknowledging the staying power of “modern finance,” Fama also notes that, even after a half‐century of research and refinements, most asset‐pricing models have failed empirically. Estimating something as apparently simple as the cost of capital remains fraught with difficulty. He dismisses betas for individual stocks as “garbage,” and even industry betas are said to be unstable, “too dynamic through time.” What's more, the wide range of estimates for the market risk premium—anywhere from 2% to 10%—casts doubt on their reliability and practical usefulness. And as if to reaffirm the fundamental insight of the M&M “irrelevance” propositions—namely, that what companies do with the right‐hand sides of their balance sheets “doesn't matter”—Fama observes that “we still have no real resolution on the key questions of debt and taxes, or dividends and taxes.” But if he has reservations about much of modern finance, Professor Fama is even more skeptical about subfields now in vogue such as behavioral finance, which he describes as “mostly just dredging for anomalies,” with no underlying theory and no testable predictions. Although he does not dispute that a number of well‐documented traits from cognitive psychology show up in individual behavior, Fama says that behavioral economists have thus far failed to come up with a testable theory that links cognitive psychology to market prices. And he continues to defend the concept of “efficient markets” with which his name has long been closely associated, while noting that empirically based asset pricing models such as his (with Ken French) “three‐factor” CAPM have produced much better results than the standard CAPM.     

农村金融发展影响农民收入增长的机制研究

本文运用1986-2007年的数据实证研究了我国农村金融发展与农民收入之间的相关性关系及影响机制.本文的研究表明,农村人均固定资产投资、农村人力资本、农村劳动力的转移与农民收入之间存在着显著的正相关性;农村金融规模和农村金融结构与农村人均固定资产投资、农村人力资本和农村劳动力转移都是正相关的,但是农村金融效率与农村人均固定资产投资、农村人力资本和农村劳动力转移却呈负向关系;我们认为,农村金融资金由于种种原因导致的配置低效率是阻碍农民收入增长的主要因素.     

基于价值的管理与公司理财创新

本文从基于价值管理理念出发,引出了现代公司发展的基础与导向是资本增值的主题。在此基础上,将会计报告、财务分析、资本经营和管理控制融入公司理财之中,形成创新的公司理财体系框架:以资本增值为公司目标和财务目标,以基于价值管理为公司理财导向,以会计报告与财务分析为理财基础,以处理与投资界的关系、评估战略以创造价值和借助全面绩效管理创造价值为理财领域,以资本经营与管理控制为理财两翼。文章论述了基于价值的公司理财创新与会计报告、财务分析、资本经营及管理控制的关系,明确它们在公司理财创新中的地位与作用。     

Estimating the Cost of Capital Using Stock Prices and Near‐term Earnings Forecasts

Earnings‐based valuation models, although long used by finance practitioners, have become increasingly popular among finance academics as well. Among the most important reasons for academics' increased acceptance of earnings‐based valuation is the well‐documented claim that earnings over a short (three‐ to four‐year) forecast horizon tend to capture a large fraction—as much as 80%—of today's value, much more than is captured by near‐term forecasts of free cash flow, the measure long advocated by finance theorists as the basis for DCF valuation. But most important for the purposes of this article, the recognition that such a large percentage of the current values of many public companies is captured within a short forecast horizon has led to a large academic literature that uses earnings‐based valuation models together with current stock prices to “back out” estimates of the companies' implied expected rates of return and costs of equity capital. The effectiveness and precision of such reverse engineering depend on the reliability of the forecasts both within a finite forecast horizon and beyond. And although the models tested in academic work, which are based on large samples of forecasts and hard‐to‐verify assumptions about earnings beyond the forecast horizon, often do not appear to provide useful estimates, the author argues that such reverse engineering of the valuation models should become straightforward and workable once reliable forecasts of earnings are obtained—say, from the corporate (or investment) analysts who are familiar with the operations of the companies they work for (or cover).