Testing the inflation rates in MENA countries: Evidence from quantile regression approach and seasonal unit root test

We investigate the dynamic behavior and seasonal property (with regime shift) of inflation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Our investigation uses the quantile regression approach developed by Koenker and Xiao (2004) and the newly developed seasonal unit root test of Narayan and Popp (2011) respectively. Our empirical results show that the inflation rates are not mean-reverting, and they show the asymmetries in their dynamic adjustment. Further, we find a seasonal unit root does not exist in the inflation rate for any country in this study. This finding implies that shocks do not have lasting effects on the inflation rate.     

The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises

European banks became a source of risk to global financial markets during the financial crisis and attention to the European banking sector increased during the sovereign debt crisis. To measure the systemic risk of European banks, we calculate a distress insurance premium (DIP), which integrates the characteristics of bank size, probability of default, and correlation. Based on this measure, the systemic risk of European banks reached its height in late 2011 around €500 billion. We find that this was largely due to sovereign default risk. The DIP methodology is also used to measure the systemic contribution of individual banks. This approach identifies the large systemically important European banks, but Italian and Spanish banks as a group notably increased in systemic importance during the sample period. Bank-specific fundamentals like capital-asset ratios predict the one-year-ahead systemic risk contributions.     

The performance of banks in the MENA region during the global financial crisis

This paper examines the impact of the global financial crisis on the banking sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as the main determinants of the profitability of both domestic and foreign banks. The empirical findings suggest that during the crisis the former outperformed the latter in that region. As for the determinants of profitability, size does not appear to play a role, whilst the liquidity ratio and net interest revenues seem to have a negative and positive effect respectively; GDP has a positive effect in the case of domestic banks.     

The impact of state and foreign ownership on banking risk: Evidence from the MENA countries

This paper investigates the impact of foreign and state ownership on banking risk. Panel data regression analysis is applied to a sample of 171 commercial banks from the MENA region during the 2006–2012 period. Two-stage least-squares analysis is conducted. Our results show that State ownership encourages banks to take more risks while foreign ownership reduces risk-taking. In addition, state-owned banks tend to increase capital adequacy ratio to hedge against high level of risk. Our finding also indicates that all categories of shareholders take a prudent attitude that influences risk reduction after the 2008 crisis.     

Determinants of financial covenants and pricing of debt in private debt contracts: the UK evidence

This paper presents details of financial covenants given by a sample drawn from the largest 200 non-financial quoted firms in the UK in private debt contracts and analyses these data to see whether there are relationships between the nature of the covenants given and firm characteristics. Data were obtained from 72 firms, of which 17 gave no financial covenants. Firm size was found to be the only significant factor influencing whether firms did or did not give covenants as well as the only factor which influenced the margin given on debt. Some types of covenants given were found to be different from those found in previous research. In particular, there is greater use of EBITDA as a base for both interest cover and gearing covenants. This shows the importance of cash flow based lending as opposed to asset based lending for general financing for large firms.     

The performance of newly privatized firms in selected MENA countries: The role of ownership structure, governance and liberalization policies

The paper analyzes 95 newly privatized firms (NPFs) in four Middle Eastern and North African countries (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey). We find that these firms experienced significant increases in profitability and operating efficiency, and significant declines in employment and leverage. We also document strong performance improvements for firms that did remain state-owned, that were not sold to foreigners, and that came from Egypt. Job losses are higher in Egypt and in firms where the state is no longer in control. Also, the results indicate that revenue firms and NPFs in Morocco display significantly less leverage than control firms and those from other countries. We find that profitability changes are negatively related to state control and positively related to foreign ownership. Trade openness, change in real GDP over the privatization window, index of investor protection, and foreign ownership are important determinants of the changes in sales efficiency and output. These findings suggest that NPFs become more productive in environments where property rights are better protected and enforced and that foreign investors influence firms' productivity through their monitoring role.     

The impact of financial reporting quality on debt maturity: the case of private firms

We examine whether the debt maturity structure of privately held firms is associated with the quality of their earnings numbers. We argue that earnings numbers that are better able to predict future cash flows lower information asymmetry between privately held firms and their creditors, improving privately held firms’ access to long-term debt. Furthermore, we examine whether the relationship between privately held firms’ earnings quality and their debt maturity differs between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and larger privately held firms. Using detailed financial statement information from a sample of privately held Belgian firms, we find that earnings quality is positively associated with the likelihood of having long-term debt and with the proportion of long-term debt in total debt. Further, we report evidence that these associations are more pronounced for SMEs than for larger privately held firms, which is consistent with smaller firms entailing more fundamental risk for creditors.     

CEO inside debt holdings and risk-shifting: Evidence from bank payout policies

Bank payouts divert cash to shareholders, while leaving behind riskier and less liquid assets to repay debt holders in the future. Bank payouts, therefore, constitute a type of risk-shifting that benefits equity holders at the expense of debt holders. In this paper, we provide insights on how CEO incentives stemming from inside debt (primarily defined benefit pensions and deferred compensation) impact bank payout policy in a manner that protects debt holder interests. We show that CEOs with higher inside debt relative to inside equity are associated with more conservative bank payout policies. Specifically, CEOs paid with more inside debt are more likely to cut payouts and to cut payouts by a larger amount. Reductions in payouts occur through a decrease in both dividends and repurchases. Our results also hold over a subsample of TARP banks where we expect the link between risk-shifting and payouts to be of particular relevance because it involves wealth transfers from the taxpayer to equity holders. We conclude that inside debt can help in addressing risk-shifting concerns by aligning the interests of CEOs with those of creditors, regulators, and in the case of TARP banks, the taxpayer.     

Conservative financial reporting, debt covenants, and the agency costs of debt

Considerable research has documented the role of debt covenants and conservative financial accounting in addressing agency conflicts between lenders and borrowers. Beatty, A., Weber, J., and Yu, J. [2008. Conservatism and debt. Journal of Accounting and Economics, forthcoming] document interesting, but mixed, findings on the relation between debt covenants and conservative accounting, and the extent to which the two contracting mechanisms act as substitutes or complements. In this paper, I discuss the economic roles of financial reporting, debt covenants, and conservatism within the debt contracting environment, and attempt to fit BWY's findings within this context.     

Foreign currency debt,financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view

Foreign currency debt is widely believed to increase risks of financial crisis, especially after being implicated as a cause of the East Asian crisis in the late 1990s. In this paper, we study the effects of foreign currency debt on currency and debt crises and its indirect effects on short-term growth and long-run output effects in both 1880–1913 and 1973–2003 for 45 countries. Greater ratios of foreign currency debt to total debt are associated with increased risks of currency and debt crises, although the strength of the association depends crucially on the size of a country's reserve base and its policy credibility. We found that financial crises, driven by exposure to foreign currency, resulted in significant permanent output losses. We estimate some implications of our findings for the risks posed by currently high levels of foreign currency liabilities in eastern Europe.     

The role of financial reporting in debt contracting and in stewardship

In this paper, I review the role that financial accounting plays in contracts aimed at mitigating agency problems between shareholders and managers and between shareholders and debtholders. The paper discusses the reasons why and how financial accounting numbers are used in debt and stewardship contracting. It further considers the effects of conservatism and fair-value accounting on the relevance of financial reports for contracting. The paper provides some key takeaways from academic literature for accounting practice and regulation.     

Forecasting recoveries in debt collection: Debt collectors and information production

Recent theoretical work suggests that debt collection agencies play an important role in gathering and processing debtor information. We study a comprehensive data set with information provided by original creditors and information gathered in third‐party debt collection. In line with the theoretical results, the initial information is sparse and the gathered information is essential for better‐informed predictions.     

论我国财政风险与国债政策的可持续性

长期的计划财政积累了我国财政支付的风险 ,集中表现为赤字和膨胀的债务。笔者将在本文中从我国财政现状出发 ,立论财政风险和国债政策的可持续性正相关联 ,剖析影响国债政策可持续性的因素 ,并指出舒缓财政风险的有效途径     

MENA stock market volatility persistence: Evidence before and after the financial crisis of 2008

The global financial crisis began with a financial meltdown in the United States in early 2008 and then it had spread to the rest of the world. In this paper we test whether the MENA equity market volatility presents a different behavior before and after the financial crisis of 2008. Using long range dependence techniques we test for long memory in the returns, absolute and squared returns of the MENA equity markets. We subject the series to unit root tests that allow for structural breaks and use the Bai and Perron (1998, Econometrica, 66, 47; 2003a, J. Appl. Econometrics, 6, 72; 2003b, Econometrics J., 18, 1) to test for multiple breaks in the mean returns. The results indicate that the volatility measures represented by absolute and squared returns show evidence of long memory for the full and subsample periods, while the returns show a weak evidence of long memory. Considering the shift dates and corresponding to the 2008 financial crisis, the returns and volatility measures display less evidence of long memory in the after crisis period as opposed to the before crisis period. The change in the returns and volatility dynamics of these markets was due to financial and economic conditions that took place in the MENA region after the crisis.     

On the income diversification and bank market power nexus in the MENA countries: Evidence from a GMM panel-VAR approach

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between revenue diversification and bank market power using a broad sample of commercial banks from 17 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1993–2014. To do so, we employ the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach in a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. Moreover, we use the impulse response functions (IRFs) tool to better understand the reaction of bank market power aftershocks on revenue diversification and vice-versa. Finally, we supplement our analysis by the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVds) of our variables. Overall, the results show that the level of bank market power declines in response to positive revenue diversification shocks. Conversely, banks with a higher level of market power get more involved in non-traditional activities.     

Linkages between Indian and US financial markets: impact of global financial crisis and Eurozone debt crisis

This paper examines inter-linkages between Indian and US equity, foreign exchange and money markets using the vector autoregressive-multivariate GARCH-BEKK framework. We investigate the impact of global financial crisis (GFC) and Eurozone debt crisis (EZDC) on the conditional volatility and conditional correlation estimates derived from the multivariate GARCH model for Indian and US financial markets. Our results indicate that there is significant bidirectional causality-in-mean between the Indian stock market returns and the Rs./USD market returns, and significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from the US stock market returns to the Indian stock market returns. As regards volatility spillovers, we find that volatility in the Indian stock market rises in response to domestic as well as US financial market shocks but Indian financial market shocks do not impact the US markets. Further, impact of the recent crisis episodes on the covariance matrix is found to be significant. We find that volatility in the Indian and US financial markets significantly amplified during GFC. The conditional correlations across asset markets were significantly accentuated in the wake of the two crisis episodes. The impact of GFC on cross-market conditional correlations is higher for majority of the asset market pairs in comparison to the EZDC.     

International reserves and the maturity of external debt

This paper studies how the level of international reserves affects the maturity structure of external debt. We show in an illustrative theoretical model that reserves lengthen the maturity of external debt via a flattening of the yield curve. Using data of 66 emerging and developing countries and applying different econometric approaches, we find robust evidence that reserves increase the share of long-term in total external debt. Results hold for private and public external debt individually. Taking reserves and their effect on the debt maturity structure together, they reinforce financial stability.     

中日韩外债规模、结构与可持续性

本文对中日韩三国外债规模、结构与可持续之间的关系进行分析,选择外债余额／GDP、外债余额／经常账户差额以及外债余额／国际储备三个指标对外债规模进行分析,从期限结构和外债种类两个方面对外债结构进行研究,指出外债可持续性不仅受到外债规模与结构的影响,也受到经济基本面、对外净资产、国际金融环境等因素的制约。     

Government and Financial Institutional Determinants of Development in MENA Countries

ABSTRACT

This article aims to examine the causal impact of the Arab Spring (AS) and government institutions on the finance–growth nexus. The empirical analysis is implemented for extensive firm-level panel data combined with national data covering macroeconomic and institutional factors for the period 2005–2014, starting 6 years before and continuing after the AS. Using Difference-in-Difference method, we analyze the effect of the AS. Evidence points to financial development as a strong positive contributor to growth. The analysis also indicates that the AS dampens growth. These results seem to suggest that political instability adversely affects growth; nevertheless, a well-functioning financial system is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to enhance growth. Therefore, policies aiming at improving the efficiency and the operation of institutions such as a country’s legal system, citizen’s participation in selecting government, freedom of expression, and the stage of financial development should persist over an extended period of time, in order to bear fruition and achieve a significant success in boosting economic growth and reducing poverty.     

Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon

This paper examines empirically using time series econometric models the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies, as well as, the relationship between current account and budget deficits in the emerging small open economy of Lebanon. The empirical results point to unsustainable debt and exchange rate policies. Other empirical results support the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship, in the short run, between the budget and current account deficits, indicating that rising fiscal deficits have started to put even more strain on the current account deficits and on the national public debt. To avoid a future depreciation of the exchange rate and perhaps a fiscal and currency crises, the government will have to timely introduce austerity measures to curb the negative implications of its rising budget and current account deficits and debt on Lebanon's economy.