Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment

This paper focuses on monetary policy in China. A set of different specifications for the monetary policy reaction function are empirically evaluated using monthly data for 1998–2014. Overall, the performance of the estimated policy rules is surprisingly good. Chinese monetary policy displays countercyclical reactions to inflation and leaning‐against‐the‐wind behaviour. The paper shows a notable increase in the overall responsiveness of Chinese monetary policy over the course of the estimation period. The central bank interest rate is unresponsive to economic conditions during the earlier years of the sample, but response becomes significant in later years. This finding comports with the view that the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China has come to place greater weight on price‐based instruments. A time‐varying estimation procedure suggests that the two monetary policy objectives are generally assigned to different instruments. The money supply instrument continues to be utilized to control the price level. Since 2008, the interest rate instrument has been mainly used to achieve the targeted output growth.     

金融不平衡与货币政策——基于文献研究的角度

在现代经济金融体制下,金融不平衡的积累和破灭,对货币政策的最终目标—货币稳定和金融稳定产生了重大不利影响,货币政策如何应对金融不平衡成为很多学者关注的话题。本文分析了货币政策在金融不平衡形成中的作用,以及金融不平衡对货币政策最终目标产生的不利影响,介绍了货币政策应对金融不平衡的几种政策主张。     

Monetary Policy in Australia: An Introduction

This Policy Forum brings together three views on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. It arose from a submission by Peter Stemp which was refereed in the normal manner for contributed papers. One referee, Stephen Grenville, was prompted to forego his anonymity and to submit a paper addressing similar issues but taking a very different approach on the objectives of monetary policy. The editors asked John Pitchford to comment on both papers. The Grenville and Pitchford papers were edited in the manner used for Policy Forum.     

Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper examines the nexus between inflation and central bank interest rate policies in inflation-targeting countries. First, it looks at the role...     

货币市场与货币政策

一国货币市场的建设不能仅仅依赖一、二个子市场,而应该货币市场建成一个子市场多元化的体系,各个子市场之间相互关联、形成统一体。只有这样,中央银行才能在货币上配套利用不同的信用工具实现货币市场的功能,贯彻货币政策的宗旨,体现货币政策的取向。本将在研究货币市场发展的基础上,分析货币市场与货币政策之间的关系。     

货币政策传导机制与货币政策有效性:争论与启示

我国当前以信贷渠道为主的货币政策传导渠道将逐步被货币渠道所取代,货币政策传递的环境和条件不完善是制约我国货币政策传导效果的主要原因,我国货币政策传导效果存在明显的地区差异。     

货币政策区域效应的研究现状及评述

对货币政策区域效应的研究是货币经济学研究的前沿分支,该领域的研究突破了以往着重从宏观总量角度分析货币政策效应的研究体系,强调对货币政策的统一性及其政策效应的区城差异性的协调。本文从理论基础、分析方法、数据选择和处理、原因分析、政策建议等角度梳理了国内外货币政策区域效应相关的研究成果以及目前存在争议的问题。     

扩张性货币政策批判:货币政策传导机制的无效性

西方经济学所说货币政策传导机制,包括利率渠道、资产价格渠道即利率渠道基础上的投资效应和财富效应、信贷渠道、汇率渠道等,在积极的或扩张性货币政策方面都是难以奏效的。扩张性货币政策的短期效果也难以证实,而且推动通胀、加剧过剩、浪费资源、加剧分化,损害长远经济发展,在长期中是负效应而不是中性。正确的货币政策原则只能是适应性的。     

影响我国货币政策有效性的因素分析

货币政策有效性的分析对于我国货币政策的制定、国民经济的发展的作用是十分重要的。本文从近几年央行出台的一系列货币政策措施来分析我国货币政策实践的有效性问题,并通过总结货币政策实践过程中出现的一系列问题,提出了提高我国货币政策有效性的建议。     

Monetary Policy Rules for Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper, we investigate the monetary policy reaction functions for the new European Union member states. We find interesting differences when looking at both interest rates (the Taylor rule) and monetary base (the McCallum rule) as monetary policy rules. Monetary aggregate is more likely to react to the deviation of inflation from its target, while short‐term interest rates are highly sensitive to the deviation of exchange rates in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. For Hungary and Romania, both interest rates and money are responsive to inflation. In empirical literature, much attention is paid to the use of the Taylor‐type rule for developed economies. However, our empirical results raise questions on the reliance of this rule for these transition economies.     

The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach

Monetary policy with an inflation targeting rule is analyzed through a simple small-scale Post-Keynesian model that incorporates open economy issues. In contrast with previous Post-Keynesian attempts, the model embodies policy authorities that are committed not only to hitting inflation and/or output targets, but also to the achievement of the external balance. To take account of the external balance objective, we model the real exchange rate as an endogenous and moving target, with the nominal exchange rate being the instrument of that target. The model shows that in response to an adverse external shock the central bank has to consider first the required real exchange rate adjustment that will preserve the external balance, and secondly the level at which the interest rate must be set in order to maintain inflation stabilization. Keeping inflation to target requires higher interest rates and strong reliance on the unemployment channel which, under certain circumstances, also has adverse side effects on income distribution. We show that to deal with an exogenous external shock a policy mix of real exchange rate targeting and income distribution targeting outperforms inflation targeting.     

论我国货币政策效应

本文基于VECM模型对我国货币政策效应做实证分析.结果表明,我国货币政策效应主要体现为促进经济增长,经济系统对货币需求和物价水平缺乏显著的抑制作用.我国中央银行为应对国际金融危机而实施的一系列宽松的货币政策,一方面有效地推动了GDP的止跌回升,另一方面也产生了通货膨胀的预期,助长了股票市场和房地产市场价格的高涨.因此在后金融危机时期要逐步调整货币政策,注意通货膨胀的风险,防范股票市场和房地产市场的泡沫.     

中国货币政策的总量性与结构性——生产力不平衡结构视角的分析

货币政策在传统的西方经济学教科书中一直被认为是总量性政策,文章分析了总量性货币政策发挥作用的条件,并从社会生产力状况的视角,认为货币政策效用是总量性与结构性的统一,在我国现有条件下货币政策应该发挥一定的结构调整作用。     

经济开放度与货币政策有效性的实证分析

通过运用Karras建立的产出增长率和通货膨胀模型,采用向量自回归VAR框架,分析经济开放度对我国货币政策效果的影响。回归结果表明,无论是以M0作为货币政策的测度指标,还是以M1作为货币政策的测度指标,它们都反映出:在长期,经济开放度的提高会削弱货币政策的有效性;但从短期来看,经济开放度的提高不一定会削弱货币政策的有效性,有时反而会提高货币政策的有效性。     

发展消费信贷与货币政策的有效性分析

发展消费信贷对于改善货币供应质量、货币政策工具、货币政策的微观基础有着十分重要的作用，从而有利于增强货币政策的有效性。     

我国货币政策传导的阻滞与疏通:一个分析框架

货币政策是否有效,取决于货币政策传导渠道是否畅通.我国的货币政策传导渠道是通过银行信贷市场和资本市场,将货币供给转化为扩大投资、刺激消费和推动经济增长的动力.近几年来我国"稳健"货币政策形成的货币供给增量在银行信贷传导渠道与资本市场传导渠道中发生了"吸附"与"沉淀",导致货币政策传导阻滞和实施效果远不尽如人意.要疏通我国货币政策传导,必须抑制货币政策传导渠道中的货币"吸附"与"沉淀".     

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

Domestic fiscal and monetary policy settings can influence the strength of the Australia dollar in a number of different ways.     

股票市场的货币政策传导分析

货币政策的传导机制不是唯一的，金融市场的种种特征造成了货币政策传导的多样性，股票市场中的货币政策传导就具有独特的规律，在不与银行信贷的创造机制相连的前提下，信贷资金和股市资金的沟通是合理的，目前中国信贷市场和股票市场之间千丝万缕的关系，并没有为货币政策传导创造更加有效的机制基础，股票市场还不能成为货币政策的有效传导渠道。