News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium

We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of news shocks. In addition, we show that neglecting to account for policy news shocks (e.g., policy announcements) can potentially bias empirical estimates of the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices.     

流动性溢价理论研究述评

资产流动性是否影响资产的价格一直是资本市场理论研究的热点问题,也是投资者决策的重要理论依据之一。本文系统回顾了国内外有关流动性溢价理论的研究现状,分析了我国股市流动性溢价的影响因素,并指出了我国在流动性溢价理论研究方面所存在的问题以及未来的研究方向。     

房价波动、信贷扩张与金融稳定

在美国次贷危机爆发、国内房地产价格居高不下的背景下,如何实现房地产业健康发展,经济持续增长及金融稳定,是政策当局面临的重大现实问题。本文围绕着房地产价格波动、信贷扩张和金融不稳定之间的互动机理的研究进展,梳理这一领域的前沿研究成果,并对理论发展脉络进行述评,最后提出了这一领域值得继续研究的若干问题。     

Asset market response to monetary policy news from SNB press releases

This paper analyses the effects of Swiss National Bank (SNB) communication on asset prices. It distinguishes between different monetary policy news contained in press releases following a monetary policy decision. Employing a latent variable approach and event-study methods, I find that medium- and long-term bond yields respond to changes in the communicated inflation and GDP forecasts as well as to the degree of pessimism expressed in press releases. Exchange rates mainly react to changes in the GDP forecast while stocks do not react to SNB communication on monetary policy announcement days. Additionally, short-term expectations about the future path of the policy rate are driven by the communicated inflation forecast. The results underline the role of qualitative news beyond quantitative forecasts in influencing market expectations and asset prices.     

Dependencies between price duration,volatility, volume and return on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The successive changes of asset prices are the most visible manifestation of financial markets dynamics. There exist different views about factors generating these changes, but many researchers and practitioners agree that the most important among them is the impact of information flow. According to the market microstructure theories, it depends mainly on the behavior of informed and uniformed traders. In the paper, we investigate dependencies between the possible proxies of information process： price duration and corresponding to it volume change and return. Our main objective is to answer the question about the most important factor in the process of discovering information by uniformed traders. We apply a set of models for volatility, volume and duration data. Our analysis is performed for selected equities listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and uses tick-by-tick data. The obtained results show that the stock liquidity on this leading stock market in Central and Eastern Europe is the most important factor influencing the process of discovering information by uninformed traders.     

Modeling common volatility characteristics and dynamic risk premia in European equity markets

The paper applies a Factor-GARCH model to evaluate the impact of the market portfolio, as a single common dynamic risk factor, on conditional volatility and risk premia for the returns on size-based equity portfolios of three major European markets; France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The results show that for the size-based portfolios the factor loading for the dynamic market factor is significant and positive but the association between the risk premia and the conditional market volatility is weak. However, the dynamic market factor is shown to explain common characteristics in the conditional variance such as asymmetry and persistence. This finding is consistent across markets and portfolio sizes.     

Endogenous participation risk in speculative markets

This paper analyses the dynamic implications of an asset-pricing model with incomplete participation due to entry costs. It is shown that heterogeneity in entry costs can lead to the existence of multiple stochastic sunspot equilibria, whereby the number of agents in the market and asset prices fluctuate endogeneously over time in the absence of fundamental uncertainty. Such asset-price fluctuations occur despite the uniqueness of the deterministic equilibrium, and thus bear no link to the usual notion of steady-state indeterminacy. In addition to excess volatility, the equilibria exhibit predictable and conditionally heteroskedastic returns.     

Asset allocation and multivariate position based trading

I add a second risky asset and a risk free bond to the univariate artificial market investigated by Lux and Marchesi (Int J Theor Appl Finance 3(4):675–702, 2000), keeping track of traders aggregate positions and wealth. Asset allocation and security selection are modeled as separate decision processes, as is common practice in financial institutions. Introducing position based trading avoids inconsistencies in traders inventories resulting from the order based setup of the original model, while preserving its ability to reproduce the stylized facts of financial return series.      

Asset price dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs and local network interactions

In this paper we investigate the effects of network topologies on asset price dynamics. We introduce network communications into a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. The agents may switch between several belief types according to their performance. The performance information is available to the agents only locally through their own experience and the experience of other agents directly connected to them. We model the communications with four commonly considered network topologies: a fully connected network, a regular lattice, a small world, and a random graph. The results show that the network topologies influence asset price dynamics in terms of the regions of stability, amplitudes of fluctuations and statistical properties.     

Impact of investor’s varying risk aversion on the dynamics of asset price fluctuations

While investors’ responses to price changes and their price forecast have been identified as one of the major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors’ heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in understanding the dynamics of asset price fluctuations. We allow an agent specific and time-dependent risk aversion index in a popular power utility function with constant relative risk aversion to construct our DRA model in which we made two key contributions. We developed an approximated closed-form price setting equation, providing a necessary framework for exploring the impact of various agents’ behaviors on the price dynamics. The dynamics of each agent’s risk aversion index is modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance, and such dynamics is incorporated in the price formula to form our DRA model. We show numerically that our model reproduces most of the “stylized” facts observed in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is an important mechanism for understanding the dynamics of the financial market and the resultant financial time series.     

中国品牌和品牌资产

本文建立了一个将品牌资产形成的三个环节联系在一起的三重积分模型并以此评价中国品牌和品牌资产。     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.     

基于租赁价格的房地产价格泡沫测度研究--以广州市房地产价格数据为例

在对房地产基础价值进行界定的基础上,提出了基于房地产租赁价格并考虑通胀因素的房地产价格泡沫测度方法。利用广州市2001-2013年的相关数据,对房地产价格泡沫程度进行了分析,并提出了相应的警戒标准,进而得出结论：以广州市为代表的一线城市的房地产价格尚未达到30%的泡沫警戒线,房价涨跌幅度仍属市场机制调节的正常范围,因而没有必要采取非市场调节手段干预房价的正常波动。     

资产的定义:回顾与思考

资产是会计学中最重要的概念,科学的资产观念及理论是财务会计理论与方法存在和发展的基础。关于资产的定义,理论界尚无定论,实务界也莫衷一是。本文通过回顾国内外学者、准则制订机构对资产的不同定义,得出资产的定义的前提条件和相关因素,在此基础上概括出资产的定义,以期对资产的定义提供参考。     

The institution efficiency of stock price limits： An experimental analysis on the two stocks market with continuous bid

Price limits in product market have been discarded in classic microeconomics. However, price limits affect the trade behavior of the same agent, since agents in the stock market change their trade status frequently. Due to the controversy on the institution effectiveness of the price limits in stock market, this paper design an experimental market with two stocks with continuous bid, in which we investigate the impact of the price limits on the stock market. The results show that the price limits moderate the price volatility within and between the trades periods, thus can stabilize stock price. In addition, price limits, when measured by traditional approach, restrain the fluidity of the market, reduce the volatility of transaction shares and maintain durative of fluidity. While volatility-based fluidity measurements show that the fluidity is enhanced significantly in stock market with price limits.     

人民币汇率波动对NFDI波动的影响及其检验

本文通过对我国NFDI资本流动性及其波动性的计算,检验了人民币/美元汇率波动对NFDI波动性的关系。通过实证分析表明,人民币汇率的波动将导致NFDI资本流动的明显不稳定。在理论研究的基础上,引申出其政策含义：在国际资本流动不断加大的今天,我们必须维护人民币/美元汇率的稳定,这样对于有效引导NFDI的资本流动和维护金融稳定都具有重要的意义。     

流动性衡量及对资产定价的影响研究述评

流动性一般被认为是市场执行交易的能力,这种能力表现为交易的便利性和交易对价格冲击的最小化.对于流动性的衡量有基于买卖价差的方法、流动比率的方法、交易对价格的冲击的方法等等,许多文献在衡量流动性水平的基础上,就流动性对资产定价的影响进行了理论和实证研究,本文系统总结了这些代表性的模型和研究成果.最后本文认为应该在参考国外成熟理论的基础上,深入研究适合我国资本市场的流动性衡量方法、内在规律和对价格的作用机制.     

试论资产定义

自20世纪初以来,众多会计学者都试图对资产进行定义。但是,到目前为止还没有得出公认合理的资产定义,当前的主流资产定义(FASB、IASB和ASB)也存在缺陷。本文试图运用逻辑学并结合会计目标理论,在综合各种资产定义优点的基础上对资产进行定义,即资产是特定会计主体合法控制的能带来未来经济利益的资源。