共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Glyn Wittwer Onil Banerjee 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2015,59(2):189-207
This study uses a dynamic multi‐regional Computable General Equilibrium model of the Australian economy to examine the impacts of developing irrigated agriculture in remote North West Queensland. A potential investment and operational scenario is implemented using three alternative forecast baselines. In the first run using a business‐as‐usual baseline, there is a welfare loss from irrigation development, even with an optimistic shift in farm productivity and factor endowments in North West Queensland. In the second run, baseline demand for Australia's exports is assumed to grow at a faster rate and there is a small welfare gain. Simulating climate change impacts on crop yields, the forecast baseline of the third run includes a gradual reduction in farmland productivity in southern Australia. The simulations show the impacts of both supply and demand shifts on the welfare outcome, but on balance, clear welfare gains do not arise from the potential irrigation development. 相似文献
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Peter Warr Arief Anshory Yusuf 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2014,58(1):1-21
Spikes in international food prices in 2007–2008 worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, both rural and urban, but only by small amounts. The paper reaches this conclusion using a multisectoral and multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The negative effect on poor consumers, operating through their living costs, outweighed the positive effect on poor farmers, operating through their incomes. Indonesia's post‐2004 rice import restrictions shielded its internal rice market from the temporary world price increases, muting the increase in poverty. But it did this only by imposing large and permanent increases in both domestic rice prices and poverty incidence. Poverty incidence increased more among rural than urban people, even though higher agricultural prices mean higher incomes for many of the rural poor. Gains to poor farmers were outweighed by the losses incurred by the large number of rural poor who are net buyers of food, and the fact that food represents a large share of their total budgets, even larger on average than for the urban poor. The main beneficiaries of higher food prices are not the rural poor, but the owners of agricultural land and capital, many of whom are urban based. 相似文献
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Jian Zhang Janaki R.R. Alavalapati Ram K. Shrestha Alan W. Hodges 《Journal of Forest Economics》2005,10(4):660-223
The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect. 相似文献
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Yu Sheng Alistair Davidson Keith Fuglie Dandan Zhang 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2016,60(3):327-347
This paper develops a theoretical model to examine the relationship between the input elasticity of (technical) substitution and both farm total factor productivity and size. In the presence of ongoing technical change and its factor bias, the ‘income effect’ arising from farms' cost minimising behaviour enables them to increase productivity by saving inputs or, through the dual equivalent, enlarging farm size. As such, farms with higher elasticities of substitution tend to grow larger and become more productive, which provides a new mechanism through which farm heterogeneity in productivity growth can be examined. Empirical evidence from Australian broadacre agriculture supports this theory and points to important policy implications. 相似文献
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Will Martin Kym Anderson 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2008,52(1):1-16
A successful agreement on agriculture is essential for an overall agreement under the WTO's Doha trade negotiations. Reaching agreement has been difficult, and as of August 2007, much still remains to be done if a successful agreement is to be reached. We consider three of the most controversial areas of the agricultural negotiations: the relative importance of domestic support, market access and export subsidies; three market access issues of sensitive‐product exceptions sought for all countries and, the additional special product exceptions sought for developing countries, the proposed special safeguard mechanism; and the domestic support issue. We show that decisions made on reform in these areas will have a critical influence on whether the negotiations achieve their objectives of promoting trade reform and reducing poverty. 相似文献
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目的 农业生产中有机肥替代化肥,既关系到面源污染的控制,又关系到农产品质量安全。方法 文章基于黄淮海与环渤海5省市480份蔬菜种植户调查数据,采用随机前沿超越对数生产函数测算农户有机肥—化肥替代弹性,实证分析社会资本发挥的驱动效果并进行异质性探究。结果 (1)有机肥的产出弹性约是化肥的产出弹性的3倍,表明有机肥增加更有利于单产的增加;同时,有机肥—化肥替代弹性为1.090,表现出有机肥对化肥较强的替代性。(2)综合社会资本正向促进农户有机肥替代化肥。其中,结构型社会资本与认知型社会资本均发挥显著影响。此外,家庭总收入水平更高、平均地块面积大于0.4 hm2(6亩)的农户更倾向于用有机肥替代化肥。(3)异质分析表明,认知型社会资本对“新一代”及高文化程度群体有机肥替代化肥决策的促进作用更明显,结构型社会资本对低文化程度群体有机肥替代化肥决策的促进作用更明显。结论 应加大对农户社会资本的培育力度,针对异质性群体,充分利用特定类型社会资本对绿色施肥技术的传播作用,并鼓励适度规模经营,提高农户收入水平,为有机肥施用创造配套条件。 相似文献
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Wei Huang Bernhard Bruemmer 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2017,61(4):645-662
Treating grazing pressure as an undesirable output of livestock grazing in a directional distance function improves understanding of how economic behaviour affects the environment. Field survey data from 193 livestock grazing households combined with remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) data on the Qinghai–Tibetan–Plateau was used to develop a directional output‐orientation distance function. The average efficiency of livestock grazing households is 0.817 when incorporating grazing pressure as an undesirable output, which means that households can achieve 18.3% more output and decrease proportional grazing pressure holding all inputs fixed. The relative shadow price of undesirable grazing pressure to good output grazing revenue is estimated to be between 1.795 and 3.986. According to the Morishima elasticity of substitution between inputs, there is a significant complementary relationship between grassland, labour and capital. 相似文献
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Building on the current international discourse and United Nation's System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) this study provides further empirical evidences on how failure to include natural capital resources in national accounting leads to erroneous calculation of macroeconomic estimates. The SEEA methodological framework for integrating natural capital into the System of National Accounts amplifies analytical power of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and allows to investigate relationship between the economy and the environment. This paper integrates values of natural capital into Supply and Use Tables (SUTs) to illustrate depletion of forest due to natural disaster. It further applies CGE model to demonstrate economy-wide effects of a real event in which hurricane felled almost 80 thousands hectares of trees in Polish forests in 2017. The model results corresponds with the statistical data published after the mentioned event. Furthermore they align with findings of previous studies, which applied different methodical approach and show that without natural capital accounting the macroeconomic estimates provide misleading information about economic performance. 相似文献
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Renuka Mahadevan John Asafu‐Adjaye 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2013,57(3):320-343
Using Papua New Guinea as a case study, this paper investigates the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of various developments in its agricultural and resource sector. It was found that commodity booms from 2004 to 2009 and the proposed large liquefied natural gas project increase output growth substantially but with Dutch disease consequences. The output expansion of the agricultural and fishery sectors on the other hand has limited positive impacts and the challenge lies in raising the productivity growth in these sectors and the better use of foreign aid. Lastly, the optimal policy strategy for sustainable development in the agricultural, fishery and resource sectors lies in the packaging of appropriate complementary policies (both institutional and economic) that support one another and the coherent implementation of these policies in a timely manner. 相似文献
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黑河流域经济发展预测模型 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
运用计量经济学理论建立起适用于区域或流域的经济发展预测模型,并运用于黑河流域,对黑河流域未来年份的经济发展做出了分析评价,为黑河流域的水资源合理配置提供了基础依据。 相似文献
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Gohin Alexandre; Bureau Jean-Christophe 《European Review of Agricultural Economics》2006,33(2):223-247
We investigate the possible linkages between the EU sugar productionunder quota and the supply of C sugar. We calibrate the implicitcross-subsidy between in-quota sugar and out-of-quota sugar.The resulting supply specification is included in a computablegeneral equilibrium model of the EU economy detailing the agriculturalsector. We simulate the effects of the 2006 reform of the EUsugar regime and the effects of a ban on sugar export subsidies.Results suggest that the reform makes it possible to fill therequirements of the 2005 World Trade Organisation panel butthat further adjustment will be needed to eliminate all exportsubsidies as is scheduled for 2013. 相似文献
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In 2007, Russia imposed an ad valorem tax on its log exports that lasted until 2012. In this paper, we use a Muth-type equilibrium displacement model to investigate the market and welfare impacts of this tax, utilizing a vertical linkage between log and lumber markets and considering factor substitution. Our theoretical analysis indicates that, without considering the vertical linkage, the negative effects of log export tax on equilibrium price for log producers is underestimated when logs and processing services are gross substitutes, and the direction of bias is uncertain when they are gross complements. Empirical simulations show that the burden of Russian log export tax is shared almost equally between foreign log buyers and domestic log producers and that the tax increases domestic lumber production. Further, the marginal effect of the log export tax on domestic lumber production decreases as Russian domestic demand share of logs increases. Overall, the welfare gains for Russian lumber consumers, lumber producers in the form of quasi-rents to processing services, and tax revenue exceed the loss in its logging sector. 相似文献
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While peripheral rural regions in Lebanon face typical problems of lagging development and economic marginalisation, they have not been regarded as a priority for policy‐makers. Local extensionists have encouraged technological innovation as a means of improving farmers’ livelihoods, and this has led to increasing input use and an intensification of agricultural production. This paper applies contrasting quantitative and qualitative methodologies to analyse the effects of such changes at the level of the overall economy of Lebanon and also to explore the impacts on rural households. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulates shocks in which agricultural output increases due to different types of intensification. The results are contrasted at local level through the use of qualitative case study analysis carried out in the Hermel district of northeast Lebanon. Quantitative simulations indicate that, while agricultural intensification has a positive effect overall on the Lebanese economy, the effects on rural households and the income of farmers are negative. The case‐study interviews demonstrate that, at local level, agricultural trade liberalisation, increased agricultural output and greater volatility of commodity prices have resulted in farmers opting for lower input use and more secure market forms of production. 相似文献
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Lilli Aline Schroeder Alexander Gocht Wolfgang Britz 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2015,66(2):415-441
We extend the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) with a regional computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effects of the Pillar II of the Common Agricultural Policy. Our aim is to assess the modeling approach by comparing the scenario results with observations from the evaluation reports for rural development, supplemented with expert interviews and findings from the literature. For this purpose, an ex‐post scenario is developed for Germany that models the effect of the Pillar II measures in 2006. We observe a moderate impact, namely, an increase in agricultural income (5%) and agricultural land use (0.15%), particularly grassland, and a substitution of arable land with grassland. This effect leads to a total increase in agricultural production, particularly of beef, and to an increase in total greenhouse gas emissions and total nitrogen surplus for Germany. Greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient surpluses per ha, however, are reduced. We observe that farm investment programmes displace private investment. The evaluation reports confirm the moderate impact and our major results, as does the comparison with other literature. However, the conclusions about agri‐environment measures and their impact on income differ. The most important difference between our results and the evaluation reports and majority of the present literature is that we also quantify the joint effect between the whole economy and policy measures, with some contradictory effects. 相似文献
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Steven Schilizzi Uwe Latacz‐Lohmann 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2013,57(1):15-37
Auction theory has mostly focussed on target‐constrained auctions and is less well developed for budget‐constrained tenders, which are the norm in environmental policy. This study assesses a theoretical model developed for budget‐constrained tenders in its capacity to predict tendering performance under information deficiencies typical of field applications. If complemented by laboratory experiments, the model is able to make the correct policy recommendation when comparing the tender to an equivalent fixed‐price scheme, even with poor predictive accuracy. This holds even if the policymaker has only limited information on the model’s key input variables. 相似文献
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This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels. 相似文献
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土地利用总体规划是一项复杂的系统工程,现代技术的发展为土地利用总体规划的实施和管理提供了强有力的技术支撑和手段,本文在阐述遥感技术、全球定位系统、地理信息系统技术,计算机技术、网络技术等现代技术特点的基础上,详细分析了现代技术条件下土地利用规划的特点,指出现代技术是提升土地利用规划对社会经济发展指导作用的重要手段。 相似文献