Bilateral Export Trade,Outward and Inward FDI: A Dynamic Gravity Model Approach Using Sectoral Data from Malaysia

In light of a change in the foreign direct investment (FDI) landscape such as the rapid growth of outward FDI from Malaysia since 2007, this article ascertains the possible impact of inward and outward FDI on Malaysia’s bilateral export trade at the sectoral level, using a dynamic gravity approach. The findings reveal that both inward and outward FDI are complementary to bilateral export trade in the services, mining, and manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the distance elasticity and the real effective exchange rate have a different negative impact on different sectors. Overall, the sectoral bilateral exports could not insulate against external events.     

Foreign direct investment and trade: The case of Vietnam

By making use of a gravity model, this paper examines the impact of FDI on exports, imports and net export of Vietnam. The empirical analysis presented in this paper is based on a recently released panel dataset involving Vietnam's 19 major trading partners for the period 1990-2007. The paper also considers the impact of FDI on trade during three sub-periods: the pre-Asian financial crisis, the post-Asian financial crisis and during the Asian financial crisis period. The empirical analysis reveals that a complementary relationship exists between FDI and exports and FDI and imports. While the impact of FDI on net-exports is insignificant during the full sample period, a significant positive relationship exists between net-exports and FDI in the post-Asian financial crisis period.     

Social Trust,Rule of Law,and Economic Exchange: Evidence from China and Its Major Trading Partners

ABSTRACT

Using cross-country panel data and employing the instrumental variable generalized method of moments (GMM) method, this article examines the effect of social trust on economic exchange between China and its major trading partners over the period 2005–2013. Social trust significantly increases bilateral trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) between China and its partners, and this effect is much stronger in nonmember countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) than OECD member countries. Further exploration suggests that the heterogeneity could be explained by the substitution relationship between social trust and the rule of law: social trust matters more in countries where the rule of law is weaker. We also .find that the impact of trust on trade and FDI is weaker in countries that have greater language similarity to China, are adjacent to China, or are common-law-origin countries. Based on these results, in implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese government and companies should not only focus on each country’s legal norms but also attach importance to the role of social capital in international economic exchange.     

Globalization and the Gender Wage Gap

There are several theoretical reasons why globalization willhave a narrowing as well as a widening effect on the genderwage gap, but little is known about the actual impact, exceptfor some country studies. This study contributes to the literaturein three respects. First, it is a large cross-country studyof the impact of globalization on the gender wage gap. Second,it employs the rarely used ILO October Inquiry database, whichis the most far-ranging survey of wages around the world. Third,it focuses on the within-occupation gender wage gap, an alternativeto the commonly used raw and residual wage gaps as a measureof the gender wage gap. This study finds that the occupationalgender wage gap tends to decrease with increasing economic development,at least in richer countries, and to decrease with trade andforeign direct investment (FDI) in richer countries, but findslittle evidence that trade and FDI also reduce the occupationalgender wage gap in poorer countries.     

江苏省FDI与对外贸易的互动分析

本文在分析总结江苏省的外商直接投资及进出口贸易的发展概况基础上,利用1992年-2008年的数据,从两个层面建立计量经济模型来分析江苏省FDI对进、出口对外贸易增长的作用影响,从中证实江苏省FDI对进出口贸易产生了一定的积极作用,但同时也存在着一些问题。     

The location determinants of FDI in the GCC countries

This paper studies the location determinants of FDI flows to the GCC countries, along Dunning's [Dunning, J., 1981. International Production and the Multinational Enterprise. Allen & Unwin, London] OLI paradigm. The paper uses panel data for the period 1980–2002. Panel data model estimates show that oil potential, measured by oil reserves, and oil utilization, measured by oil production, have a surprisingly negative influence on FDI flows, contrary to expectations about positive association between GCC oil resources and FDI flows. However, the relative degree of oil utilization, measured by oil production relative to oil reserves, has a positive influence on inflows. Similar to oil potential and oil utilization, oil price has a negative influence. Estimates also show that while institutional quality, trade openness and infrastructure development encourage FDI flows, human capital significantly discourages them.     

我国对外贸易的FDI与国内银行信贷促进效应的比较分析

关于对外贸易与FDI之间关系的研究有很多,但对于FDI与国内金融部门特别是国内银行信贷在对外贸易的不同影响这个问题上却很少有人作出比较,而本文就是以这个作为研究主题,尝试解决以下几个问题:改革开放以来我国FDI流入与国内银行信贷对对外贸易的作用有何不同?在不同时期内,两者又具有怎么样的不同关系?等等.     

外商直接投资对中国国际收支影响的研究

外商直接投资（FDI）可以从多方面对一国的国际收支产生影响,包括对资本和金融账户的直接影响和对经常账户的间接影响。本文结合中国具体情况,利用1982-2009年的相关历史数据,通过建立贡献率指标,分析外商直接投资对国际收支产生的综合影响。结果显示,近年来,由于外商直接投资持续、大量的流入,不仅直接对国际收支产生正面影响,而且带动了出口快速增长,积累了巨额贸易顺差,成为导致国际收支失衡的重要因素之一。同时,撤资、利润汇出等负面效应所带来的国际收支风险也应被密切关注,尤其是在经济环境恶化时期。     

商业信用合同的履行概率,其外部性及现金需求——中国案例

本文测算了商业信用合同违约风险对商业贸易和现金需求的影响。结果显示,外国直接投资企业为其贸易伙伴提供了大量商业信用,而中国的企业,无论是私营,还是国有企业,他们交易实行货到即时付款的比例很高。外国直接投资企业之所以是经济交易中信贷的提供者,是因为他们具有较高的商业信用合同执行技术(contract enforcement technology)。我们还发现商业信用合同的执行技术主要包括贸易物品的竞争力、竞争幅度、与地方政府的关系以及公司治理的性质。一个企业具有较高的合同执行概率,就可能提供大量的商业信用,并获得更大的交易量。合同执行技术对贸易交易量的弹性估计约为2.2。模拟显示如果合同执行概率提高,分布在75%,贸易交易量可增加24%,商业信用规模可增加30%。由于商业信用合约的不完备而导致的经济损失则是巨大的。此外,我们证实,高的商业信用合同执行技术通过商业信用量和交易量的增加而在经济中产生正外部效应。     

Bilateral political relations and sovereign wealth fund investment

We examine the role of bilateral political relations in sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment decisions. Our empirical results suggest that political relations play a role in SWF decision making. Contrary to predictions based on the FDI and political relations literature, we find that relative to nations in which they do not invest, SWFs prefer to invest in nations with which they have weaker political relations. Using a two-stage Cragg model, we find that political relations are an important factor in where SWFs invest but matter less in determining how much to invest. Inconsistent with the FDI and political relations literature, these results suggest that SWFs behave differently than rational investors who maximize return while minimizing risk. Consistent with the trade and political relations literature, we find that SWF investment has a positive (negative) impact for relatively closed (open) countries. Our results suggest that SWFs use—at least partially—non-financial motives in investment decisions.     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Institutional Quality,and Financial Development along the Belt and Road: An Empirical Investigation

ABSTRACT

The source of financial development is less investigated in the literature, especially the role foreign direct investment (FDI) plays on financial development. Using data from 50 countries joining the Belt and Road Initiative, this article at first time tests the impact of FDI on financial development in a host country. Empirical results show that FDI can significantly improve the development of financial sector, especially the development of financial markets. FDI is found to be a stronger driver of financial development for countries with higher quality institutions. Moreover, FDI not only increases financial deepening, but also enhances financial function.     

风险与外商直接投资简

外商直接投资已经被视作企业在全球扩张中的一种典型方式。通过吸收国外资金,技术或者管理经验,外商直接投资已经成为所在国家经济发展的潜在催化剂。与此同时,外国公司和他们的公司所属国也将会从外商直接投资中获得更大的利益,更低的成本等等。所以,这就不难看出外商直接投资已经日益成为一种对两国经济发展双赢的投资方式。然而,在对外投资的过程中,外国企业以及公司所属国家不得不面对一些问题,那就是如何将风险最小化。事实上,在这个过程中,风险是多种多样的,例如,政治风险,经济风险,汇率风险以及法律风险,所有的这些都将会影响外商直接投资的方向因为它将会导致企业的盈利能力下降。通过基于于1984年至2007年间,美国企业对全球43个发展中国家投资的固定样本数据作为参考,本文的实证结果能够统计地证实风险与外商直接投资流存在反向关系。     

环境规制与中国外商直接投资变化——基于DEA多重分解的实证研究

中国经济进入“新常态”,产能过剩和环境污染问题日益突出,国际投资环境不容乐观,“供给侧结构性改革”为中国经济“新常态”下的必要举措。本文探索环境规制下我国FDI变化的影响因素,通过FDI的子向量距离函数定义“环境规制生产技术”和“非环境规制生产技术”,以此构造环境规制的成本效应,测度中国30个省份1999-2015年的环境规制成本,并在此基础上对实际FDI的变化进行分解。本文的主要结论有:2001年后,中国各省份的环境规制成本呈现整体上升趋势,东部地区的环境规制效果最为明显;环境规制下,中国各省份的实际FDI增速先加快后减缓,2015年之前,第二产业对FDI的吸引力最强,2014年开始,第三产业对FDI的吸引显著增强,“供给侧结构性改革”初显成效,促进了我国的产业结构优化升级。反事实检验显示导致各个时期FDI变化的影响因素不尽相同,但随着改革开放的力度不断加大,全要素生产率和产业结构对FDI分布的影响显著增强。     

跨国企业的规模扩张与东亚经贸关系的紧密化——中国对外贸易增长的国际背景

中国加入WTO后,外贸出口急速增长,有关各方也对中国外贸出口的激增产生了不信任感。中国出口增长的原因,除经济成长、贸易政策等内部因素外,在华跨国企业的生产—出口的增加是引起中国外贸出口增长的重要外部因素。同时,跨国企业的贸易活动促进了外资来源国与贸易伙伴国之间的一致性,进而推动了区域经贸一体化进程。基于中国与主要贸易伙伴—主要外资来源国是互补型的贸易关系,中国的出口增长对于这些国家来说是安全的。     

Aspects of international financial services

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the issues related to international financial services, particularly foreign direct investment in banking. The paper discusses the challenges of measuring incomes generated from the activities of multinational banks, including their international lending and direct investment in host countries. The paper highlights the complementary role of FDI and trade in financial services and discusses investment in banking services. The patterns of FDI in banking in Eastern European countries, Latin America and East Asia are also analysed with a focus on the costs and benefits of FDI in banking in the emerging countries.     

Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

We investigate the role of international trade and proximity to war in international stock markets during the invasion of Ukraine by employing DiD designs and panel data comprising 70 stock markets. We find that differences in trade exposure to warring countries (trade effect) have a substantial and negative impact on non-European equity markets but are irrelevant for European markets. In contrast, differences in the distance to warring countries (proximity effect) have a significant and negative impact on European markets but have no bearing on non-European markets. We find that the relevance of rent from mineral, natural gas, and oil resources and the relevance of metals, ores, and fuels in exports operate as mitigators of the trade effect. Our paper provides valuable empirical evidence regarding the importance of mitigating the vulnerability of financial markets to international trade when a major war breaks out.     

Do GCC market-oriented labor policies encourage inward FDI flows?

In this paper, we empirically examine the impact of market-oriented labor policies on inward FDI flows to the GCC countries. The paper adopts different estimation methodologies to address endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Reliance on professional management reduces inward FDI flows to the UAE while linking pay to productivity reduces inward FDI flows to both Bahrain and the UAE. Trade openness and infrastructure development have a positive influence, while human capital development has a surprisingly negative influence. Evidence, therefore, does not support the view that flexible labor market policies encourage inward FDI flows to GCC countries.     

Corruption Distance and Foreign Direct Investment

We study the effects of “corruption distance,” defined as the difference in corruption levels between country pairs on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a “gravity” model and the Heckman (1979) two-stage framework on a data set of forty-five countries from 1997 to 2007, we find that corruption distance adversely influences both the likelihood of FDI and the volume of FDI. A novel finding in this study is that we identify the asymmetric effect of corruption distance and find that the positive corruption distance, defined as the corruption distance from a high corruption source to a low corruption host country, is the prominent one that affects the behavior of bilateral FDI.     

江西省外商直接投资、贸易收支与实际有效汇率的动态关系分析

本文基于向量自回归模型对江西外商直接投资、贸易收支与实际有效汇率三者之间的动态关系进行了分析.实证结果显示,三者之间长期存在互为因果的关系.长期来看外商直接投资对贸易余额有一定的改善作用,人民币实际贬值的J曲线效应明显.出口空间的大小不是影响外商直接投资的主要因素,实际有效汇率的稳定有利于吸引外商直接投资.人民币的升值在一定时期内不会恶化江西省的贸易收支,但会对FDI的流入产生一定的负面影响.