Regulating away competition: the effect of regulation on entrepreneurship and employment

Many scholars have worried that regulation deters entrepreneurship because it increases the cost of entry, reduces innovation in the regulated industry, and benefits large firms because they can overcome the costs of complying with regulations more easily than smaller firms. Using novel data on the extent of US federal regulations by industry and data on firm births and employment from the Statistics of US Businesses, we run fixed effects regressions to show that more-regulated industries experienced fewer new firm births and slower employment growth in the period 1998–2011. Large firms may even successfully lobby government officials to increase regulations to raise their smaller rivals’ costs. We also find that regulations inhibit employment growth in all firms and that large firms are less likely to exit a heavily regulated industry than small firms.     

Exporting and labour demand: Micro‐level evidence from Germany

It is widely believed that globalization increases the extent of employment and wage responses to economic shocks. In this paper, we investigate the effect of firms’ exporting activities on the wage elasticity of labour demand. Using rich, administrative linked employer–employee panel data from Germany and destination‐specific industry‐level information on trade flows, we explicitly control for self‐selection into exporting and endogeneity concerns. Overall, we find that exporting has a significant positive effect on the (absolute value of the) unconditional wage elasticity of labour demand. In line with our hypothesis, we further show that the effect is particularly strong for those plants that export a significant share of their output to low‐ and medium‐income countries, hence face relatively more price‐elastic product demand.     

A $15 U.S. Minimum Wage: How the Fast-Food Industry Could Adjust Without Shedding Jobs

We consider the extent to which U.S. fast-food businesses could adjust to an increase in the federal minimum wage from its current level of $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour without having to resort to reducing their workforce. We consider this issue through a set of simple illustrative exercises, whereby the US raises the federal minimum wage in two steps over four years, first to $10.50 within one year, then to $15 after three more years. We conclude that the fast-food industry could absorb the increase in its overall wage bill without resorting to cuts in their employment levels at any point over this four-year adjustment period. We find that the fast-food industry could fully absorb these wage bill increases through a combination of turnover reductions, trend increases in sales growth, and modest annual price increases over the four-year period. Working from the relevant existing literature, our results are based on a set of reasonable assumptions on fast-food turnover rates, the price elasticity of demand within the fast-food industry, and the industry’s underlying trend for sales growth. We also show that fast-food firms would not need to lower their average profit rate during this adjustment period.     

Flexible Labor Regulations and Informality in Egypt

Do more flexible labor market regulations reduce informal employment in formal firms? This paper examines the effects of changes in labor regulations on the incidence of formal employment. Using the case of Egypt, we study the effects of the introduction of more flexible labor regulations in 2003 on the probability that non‐contractual workers will be granted a formal employment contract. To identify the effect of the law and control for potential confounding factors, we use a difference‐in‐difference estimator that measures the difference in the pre‐ and post‐law probability of obtaining a formal contract across a treatment group of non‐contractual workers initially employed in formal firms and a comparison group of non‐contractual workers initially employed in informal firms. The latter serve as a useful comparison group since informal firms are unlikely to formalize as a result of the law, so that the only way their workers can become formal is to move to another firm. Our findings show that the passage of the new labor law did in fact increase the probability of transitioning to formal employment for non‐contractual workers employed in formal firms by about 3–3.5 percentage points, or the equivalent of at least a fifth of informal workers in formal firms.     

Employment,job turnover,and trade in producer services: UK firm‐level evidence

Abstract We provide the first firm‐level evidence of the impact of the trade in producer services (‘offshoring’) on the labour market. Using a new data set from the UK that measures trade in services at the firm level, we find no evidence that importing intermediate services is associated with job losses or greater worker turnover. Using regression to control for observable differences between firms that import service inputs and those that do not, we show that firms that start importing intermediate services experience faster employment growth than equivalent firms that do not. This seems likely to be the result of positive demand shocks, which cause a simultaneous increase in employment, output, and use of imported service inputs.     

The labor market and corporate structure

We analyze the impact of labor demand and labor market regulations on the corporate structure of firms. Higher wages are associated with lower monitoring, irrespective of whether these high wages are caused by labor market regulations, unions or higher labor demand. We also find that the organization of firms has important macroeconomic implications. In particular, monitoring is a type of “rent-seeking” activity and the decentralized equilibrium spends excessive resources on monitoring. Labor market regulations that reduce monitoring by pushing wages up may increase net output or reduce it only by a small amount even though they reduce employment.     

Research and development and labour productivity: do high-tech firms exhibit labour- or capital-saving technical change?

Employment and output in the advanced technology sectors have generally exhibited above-average growth for more than two decades. While this industry accounts for a relatively small share of total employment, the majority of private sector research and development (R&D) expenditures in the US is concentrated within seven sub-sectors. However, little attention has been paid as to whether high-tech productivity exhibits Hicksian capital or labour ‘savings’ bias or tendency to displace either factor input over time. Biased technical change can occur as economies transition between growth regimes. An augmented production function is employed to analyse the additional impact of R&D activity on firm-level labour productivity. A panel data set comprised of high-tech firms located across the advanced economies, China and India from 1990 to 2013 is used in the analysis. Labour-saving technical change was present across the advanced technology sectors and most countries. The expanded models of labour productivity that used fixed effects with lagged regressors confirmed the prior results as well as finding that R&D per employee, relative R&D intensity and firm market share contribute to firm-level labour productivity growth across countries and sectors. Additional support was found for diminishing returns to scale but not for R&D spillover effects.     

Federal excise tax increase and its effects on U.S. tobacco production

Using the equilibrium displacement model, we examine the impact on tobacco farms of the decrease in cigarette sales due to the increase in prices induced by the federal excise tax hike that went to effect on April 1, 2009. First we estimate the effect of the increase in the federal excise tax on cigarette price and sales. Then, we estimate the effect of the decrease in cigarette sales on tobacco farms. Results suggest that under a scenario of market power implied by a conjectural elasticity of 0.11 manufactures could charge $0.23 per pack more than the federal excise tax increase, which would be enough to offset the estimated 1.42 billion-pack sales decline and to maintain the industry’s revenue net of taxes. This decrease in cigarette sales induced by the increase in the federal excise tax would result in the tobacco leaf output and price declining by 2.85 and 0.41%, respectively. As a result, the tobacco leaf sector would sustain a loss of 3.25% in revenue, amounting to nearly $48.4 million.     

International,intra-national and inter-firm knowledge diffusion and technological catch-up: the USA,Japan, Korea and Taiwan in the memory chip industry

Using data on US patent citations, this paper investigates the pattern of international, intranational and interfirm knowledge diffusion in the process of technological catch-up by Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese firms in the memory chip industry. First, regarding international diffusion, this paper finds that the ordering of citations is exactly the same as the order of entry into the industry: Taiwanese firms tend to cite Korean firms, Korean firms tend to cite Japanese firms and Japanese firms tend to cite US firms. Second, the degree of intranational knowledge diffusion is proportional to the level of technological capability or order of entry, although it is also affected by organisational differences among the firms. Third, the difference in patterns of interfirm knowledge reflects difference across organisations, such that big Korean group firms are less oriented toward interfirm knowledge diffusion compared with their Taiwanese small and medium enterprise (SME) counterparts. To explain such difference, the role of government research institutions has been highlighted, especially since the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) accounts for the lion's share of Taiwanese-held patents and in the spin-offs of many firms in the industry.     

The impact of the net percentage growth rate in the number of small firms on differential state-level employment growth rates in the US: an exploratory empirical note

This brief exploratory empirical note seeks to identify key determinants of geographic differentials in the percentage growth rate of state-level employment in the US, with the primary focus being on the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms (i.e., those with fewer than 20 employees) in each state, where this variable serves as a de facto reflection of ‘entrepreneurship’. In the interest of identifying other key factors that influence state-level employment growth rates, the effective income tax rate in each state, quality of life elements and labour market considerations are also included in the analysis. The study period runs from the year 2000 to the year 2007, ending just prior to the ‘Great Recession’. The estimation results imply that the state-level employment growth rate in the US was an increasing function of the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms in each state. Thus, it appears that the small firms growth rate may in fact be a significant source.     

The effects of wrongful discharge protection on foreign multinationals: Evidence from transaction‐level data

Using detailed micro‐level data from 1977 to 1994, we analyze the impact of employment protection measures adopted across US states on the number and the value of new inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) transactions completed by foreign‐owned companies. Our findings point to a robust negative association between the implementation of employment protection laws and both the extensive and the intensive margins of FDI in the US. When states adopt regulations that increase employers’ firing costs, FDI transactions by foreign multinational companies become less frequent and decrease in value, with stronger negative impacts in more labour‐intensive industries. There is also some evidence of diversion and spillover effects from the adoption of these measures by neighbouring states.     

An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes

In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures also have a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the early 1980s, also present a larger share of the forecast error variance of US real output than the federal funds rate.     

Multinational companies and indirect employment: measurement and evidence

This study suggests a new approach towards measuring the indirect employment effects of multinational companies (MNCs) using a simple Cobb-Douglas production function. Based on the assumption that domestic sales by indigenous firms in a sector are supplies for multinationals in that sector rather than final goods, indirect employment effects are measured as the effect of an increase in domestically purchased inputs on employment in indigenously-owned suppliers. Applying this measure to data for the electronics sector in Ireland we find that there have been positive indirect effects of MNCs on employment in indigenous firms. The value of the estimated coefficients depends somewhat on the specification of the model estimated but the standard specification suggests that a 10% increase in domestically sold output by indigenous firms leads to an employment growth of around 2% in these firms.     

Does industry self-regulation reduce pollution? Responsible Care in the chemical industry

Self-regulation programs, in which industry associations set membership codes beyond government regulations, are prevalent despite scarce evidence on their effectiveness. We examine Responsible Care (RC) in the US chemical manufacturing sub-sector, whose membership codes include pollution prevention, using our author-constructed panel database of 3,278 plants owned by 1,759 firms between 1988 and 2001. We apply two sets of instrumental variables to address a plant’s parent firm’s self-selection into the program, using: (i) the characteristics of other plants belonging to the same firm in our multi-plant sample; and (ii) firm participation in the industry association before the establishment of RC and industry-level RC participation in our full sample. We find that on average, plants owned by RC participating firms raise their toxicity-weighted pollution by 15.9% relative to statistically-equivalent plants owned by non-RC participating firms. This estimated increase is large relative to the yearly 4% reduction in pollution among all plants in our sample between 1988 and 2001. Moreover, RC raises plant-level pollution intensity by 15.1%. These results caution against reliance on self-regulation programs modeled on the pre-2002 RC program that did not require third party certification and in those sectors that lack independent third party certification.     

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Financing Health Insurance

Employer-financed health insurance systems like those used in the United States distort firms’ labor demand and adversely affect the economy. Since such costs vary with employment rather than hours worked, firms have an incentive to increase output by increasing worker hours rather than employment. Given that the returns to employment exceed the returns to hours worked, this results in lower levels of employment and output. In this paper, we construct a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model where individuals differ with respect to their productivity and employment opportunities. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, we generate steady state results for several alternative models for financing health insurance: one in which health insurance is financed primarily through employer contributions that vary with employment, a second where insurance is funded through a non-distortionary, lump-sum tax, and a third where insurance is funded by a payroll tax. We measure the effects of each of the alternatives on output, employment, hours worked, and wages.     

Shirking and employment protection legislation: Evidence from a natural experiment

The Italian employment protection legislation was modified in 1990 making more costly for small firms to dismiss employees. Using a difference-in-differences estimator to compare absenteeism rates in small and large firms we find a strong increase of shirking in small firms.     

Externalities of economic sanctions on performance of intra-industry non-sanctioned firms: Evidence from Zimbabwe

This paper investigates the effect of targeted economic sanctions by the United States and the European Union on the performance of intra-industry non-sanctioned firms. Using data of non-sanctioned firms listed on the Zimbabwe stock exchange during the period 2009–2018, our regression results show that non-sanctioned firms in the same industry as sanctioned firms perform better than ordinary non-sanctioned firms, signalling the positive competitive effect. A mediating test suggests that sanctions increase the market share of non-sanctioned firms in the same industry as sanctioned firms and subsequently increase their performance.     

Do Environmental Standards Harm Manufacturing Employment?

A major issue in the debate about imposing environmental standards on polluting firms is the possibility of negative effects on employment. We examine the impact of environmental regulations on employment in an empirical analysis. Norwegian data are used to study three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units under strict environmental regulations. We find that for two of these sectors, firms under strict environmental regulations had a higher tendency to increase employment and a lower tendency to exit than firms under weak or no environmental regulation. For the third sector, environmental regulations had no significant impact on employment.     

The strategic nature of advertising in segmented markets

We develop a simple model in which firm-specific advertising has cooperative and predatory effects. Our model is set in a static market where firms are naturally segmented into two distinct submarkets: several large firms located in the core, with small firms operating as a fringe. We test the net effect of opposing market size (cooperative) and market share (predatory) effects of both fringe and core firm advertising on the advertising decisions of large firms in several US consumer industries. Empirically, fringe firm advertising leads to an increase in advertising efforts by large firms, implying strategic complementarity. On the other hand, increased advertising by core firms in an industry decreases advertising expenditures of other core firms, indicating they are strategic substitutes. Our findings imply that equilibrium levels of advertising can be greater with asymmetric, rather than symmetric, strategic interactions.     

A theory of mutual migration of polluting firms

Abstract.  Suppose that governments care about their tax revenue and local firms have some say in environmental regulations. Then, the level of employment and environmental compliance may be negotiated. We find that firms located in different countries can improve their threat‐point payoffs by mutual migration. This in turn affects the negotiated output/employment and environmental regulations, which causes profits to increase if the firm's threat‐point payoff is higher than that of the local government. The model predicts that pollution‐intensive firms or firms with highly inelastic demands are more likely to move out. Increases in the government's valuation of the environment, or in the degree of globalization also cause mutual migration of dirty firms. The effect of a government caring about consumer surplus leads to a lower pollution tax, reducing firms' incentives to move out. JEL classification: F2, Q0