Output Growth Decomposition in the Presence of Input Quality Effects: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

How do physical capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) individually add to economic growth? We approach this question from the perspective of the quality of physical capital and labor, namely the age of physical capital and human capital. We build a unique dataset by explicitly calculating the age of physical capital for each country and each year of our time frame and estimate a stochastic frontier production function incorporating input quality in five regions of countries (Africa, East Asia, Latin America, South Asia and West). Physical capital accumulation generally proves much more important than either the improved quality of factors or TFP growth in explaining output growth. The age of capital decreases growth in all regions except in Africa, while human capital increases growth in all regions except in East Asia.     

Gender‐specific Human Capital,Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia

Using data covering 1970–2008 for South Asia, this study investigates the influence of human capital disaggregated by gender, on economic growth. We use an extended version of the Solow growth model with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) a function of the key variables, viz. physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation, trade openness and capital flows, fiscal policy and financial development. The key contribution of this study is to show that openness when interacted with the human capital stock disaggregated by gender, has differential impacts on economic growth. While the positive impact of male secondary schooling captures the direct skill effect relative to primary schooling, the marginal influence of female primary/secondary schooling fails to show a positive impact on growth at higher levels of openness. An implication stemming from this study is that educational opportunities for females at the secondary level should be increased for South Asia.     

教育人力资本、健康人力资本与地区经济增长差异——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

在M-R-W增长模型框架下,将人力资本的内涵扩展至教育和健康两个方面。用教育收益率修正了教育人力资本指标,而健康则主要从投入角度加以测度。应用传统的固定效应模型和动态面板模型(DGMM)估计教育人力资本、健康人力资本对地区经济差异的影响。结果显示,人力资本促使全国省际间人均GDP增长出现明显的"俱乐部"收敛现象,而三大地区内部的经济增长则表现出条件收敛趋势。从教育人力资本产出弹性可以看出,东部地区经济增长的驱动力正从物质资本向人力资本方向转变。以每万人拥有床位数代表的健康人力资本促进了全国及区域范围内的经济增长。     

South Africa's export predicament*

Using South Africa as an example, this article explores how the structure of production affects export diversification and economic growth. We show that the lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita in South Africa over the past 40 years. This slow structural transformation is shown to be a consequence in part of the peripheral nature of South Africa's productive capabilities: the country is specialized in sectors intensive in highly specific factors of production that cannot be easily redeployed to other activities. Using this methodology, we examine the sectoral priorities of the South African Department of Trade and Industry and explore the policy implications of the country's orientation in the product space.     

A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa

This study investigates the substitutability relationships among capital, labor, and imported inputs for South Africa, utilizing the estimates obtained from an aggregate cost function. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for both domestic labor and imports, but that labor and imports are complementary inputs. This latter result suggests that relaxing South African trade restrictions may have a positive impact, in both the long and the short run, on the demand for domestic labor. Other results suggest that the reduction of market impediments may also positively impact the production of investment goods and economic growth.     

FDI、人力资本积累与经济增长

本文在一个两国内生增长模型中研究了发达国家FDI产业选择与发展中国家经济增长和技术进步问题。本文分析表明,发达国家FDI产业的选择依赖于发展中国家的技术能力和竞争能力,发展中国家技术能力和竞争能力越强,发达国家则倾向于将更多更先进的产业转移到发展中国家;FDI能否给发展中国家带来技术进步和经济增长依赖于发展中国家的人力资本积累,只有辅之以较快速度的人力资本积累,FDI才能给发展中国家带来技术进步和经济增长。因此,普及和改善教育、提高国民的人力资本水平应该成为发展中国家提高自身技术能力、吸引FDI、促进技术进步和经济增长的核心政策。     

AIDS,longevity and long-run income

This article studies the long-run impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. We focus on the disincentive to human capital accumulation given by shorter life span. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations model with education and saving decisions, calibrated for a cross-section of countries. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in future, on average, 20% poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases such as Botswana, South Africa and Zambia by more than 40%. The impact of population decline was found to be irrelevant.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

Redistribution,inequality, and efficiency with credit constraints: Implications for South Africa

We develop a model that jointly determines the distribution of income and the aggregate macrodynamics. We identify multiple channels through which alternative public policies such as transfers, consumption and income taxes, and public investment will affect the inequality-efficiency trade-off. Income tax and transfers have both a direct income and an indirect substitution effect; a consumption tax has only the latter. We present extensive numerical simulations motivated by the South African National Development Plan 2030, the objective of which is to reduce soaring inequality and increase per capita GDP. Our results illustrate how the judicious combination of social grants and a consumption tax may help achieve these targets. The simulations also suggest that the sharp decline in the private-public capital ratio, coupled with a high degree of complementarity between public and private capital may help explain the persistence of market inequality in South Africa during the last two decades.     

人口规模、经济增长与碳排放:经验证据及国际比较

根据国际能源署（IEA）公布的1971—2008年碳排放数据,探讨中国与典型发达国家、发展中国家（G8＋5）人口规模、经济增长与碳排放变化的差异性。结果表明：随着GDP增长,中国碳排放快速增长,人均碳排放已超过世界平均水平;单位GDP碳排放持续降低,但依然高于世界平均水平。利用秩相关系数检验人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放,发现7个发达国家均呈显著下降趋势,发展中国家南非、中国呈显著下降趋势,巴西、印度、墨西哥呈上升趋势但并不显著;人均GDP与人均碳排放秩相关系数表明,7个发达国家中,美国、法国、德国、英国呈显著下降趋势,加拿大呈不显著上升趋势,日本、意大利呈显著上升趋势;5个发展中国家处于工业化快速发展阶段,能源消费急剧增加,随着人均GDP增长,人均碳排放均呈显著上升趋势。基于此,归纳出世界主要发达国家和发展中国家人口增长、经济增长与碳排放变动的三种模式。     

COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.     

The Political Economy of Energy Transitions: The Case of South Africa

This paper explores the political economy of energy transition in South Africa. An economic model based around a powerful ‘minerals-energy complex’ that has previously been able to provide domestic and foreign capital with cheap and plentiful coal-generated electricity is no longer economically or environmentally sustainable. The paper analyses the struggle over competing energy visions, infrastructures and political agendas in order to generate insights into the governance and financing of clean energy transitions in South Africa. It provides both a rich empirical account of key policy developments aimed at enabling such a transition and provides reflections on how best to theorise the contested politics of energy transitions.     

Financial liberalization and sectoral reallocation of capital in South Africa

We examine the impact of financial reforms on efficient reallocation of capital within and between sectors in South Africa using firm-level panel data for the period 1991–2008. The measure of efficient allocation of capital is based on the Tobin’s Q. We find that financial reforms are associated with improvements in within-sector, but not between-sector allocation of capital. These results imply that for South Africa to unleash the potential for take-off that is often associated with reallocation of resources from the primitive to modern sectors, reforms that focus beyond the financial sector are necessary. While more research is necessary to determine what would fully constitute such additional reforms, our analysis shows that reforms that improve the quality of economic institutions may be a step in the right the direction.     

Powering economic growth and development in Africa: telecommunication operations

This study investigates the effect of telecommunication operations on economic growth and development in selected African countries. The analysis considers a panel of 46 African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication operations by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed/CDM line and Internet access penetration via principal component analysis. The physical capital stock is measured by gross fixed capital formation, level of employment by the employment to population ratio, human capital development by enrolment in secondary education for both sexes and technology transfer by net inflows of foreign direct investment in Africa. The empirical results suggest that telecommunication operations promote economic growth and development in Africa. These results imply that for every positive expansion in telecommunication operations and physical capital stock, aggregate output and standard of living will adjust positively in Africa. Thus, an appropriate policy to improve overall investment in Africa and most especially in the telecommunication sector since the spillover effect cut across other sectors and the general economic performance.     

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

Using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. The econometric results indicate that the epidemic's effects have been substantial; in Africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1% increase in HIV prevalence rate is minus 0.59%. Even in countries with lower HIV prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non-trivial. Hence while the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are major causes for concern, these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are important.     

Human capital,age structure and growth fluctuations

This article assesses the empirical relationship between per capita income growth fluctuations and the age-structured human capital variations across four groups of geographically clustered developed and developing countries from spatial perspective. We estimate a spatial Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of income dynamics where the distance between countries is defined on relational space based on their similarity in appropriation tendency of human capital in the production processes. These distances are computed using a newly developed human capital data set which fully characterizes the demographic structure of human capital, and thus underlines the joint relevance of demography and human capital in economic growth. Spatial effects on growth interdependence and complementarity are then explored with respect to the proposed distance metrics. Our results imply that significant cross-country growth interdependence based on human capital distances exists among defined country groups suggesting the need for a cooperative policy programme among them. We also find that the relationship between economic growth and human capital is highly nonlinear as a function of the proposed human capital distance.     

The composition of foreign capital stocks in South Africa: The role of institutions,domestic risk and neighbourhood effects

Foreign capital inflows are an important source of funds to finance investment in developing economies. International finance literature is therefore concerned with how institutional factors like property rights and corruption affect foreign capital inflows. We investigate the determinants of the absolute volumes and composition of foreign capital stocks in South Africa, focusing on the role played by institutional quality (property rights), domestic default risk and neighbourhood effects as potential determinants. The empirical results show that secure property rights and low default risk in the host country positively affect the absolute volumes of both long-term foreign capital and short-term foreign capital, but tilt the composition in favour of long-term foreign capital. Empirical results also demonstrate the existence of neighbourhood effects where the institutional environment in Zimbabwe significantly impacts on South Africa's foreign capital inflows. In this regard, weak property rights in Zimbabwe lead to an increase in South Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI), but a reduction in South Africa's portfolio investment. This suggests that Zimbabwe and South Africa compete for foreign direct investment in similar sectors, and present two alternative investment destinations to foreign investors. By contrast, weak property rights in Zimbabwe appear to raise the perceived risk for portfolio investment in South Africa.     

School Education,Learning‐by‐Doing,and Fertility in Economic Development

We examine the policy implications of relaxing constraints on the educational choice of individuals for economic development. Distinguishing human capital accumulation through schooling and through learning‐by‐doing and knowledge spillovers, we show that in the earlier stages of development, mitigating and eventually eliminating constraints on school education would be necessary for even further economic development. Expanded school education increases the income of individuals and encourages physical capital accumulation, which enlarges productive knowledge through implementation and operations. The increased labor productivity thus boosts economic growth. In the process, the fertility rate will decline because of the increased education cost per child.     

固定生产要素对经济增长的作用研究——基于扩展的拉姆齐模型

在标准的拉姆齐模型中引入一种固定生产要素(例如土地)来进行模型扩展。固定生产要素是指那些总量固定的要素,但随人口的增加这类要素的人均数量会减少。模型分析得出的主要结论是固定要素对经济的长期增长起着重要作用,人均固定要素的减少对经济的负面影响在一定程度上可通过人均资本的增加来弥补,这种程度取决于固定要素与资本的替代弹性。     

贸易开放、人力资本与 中国区域收入空间效应* ——基于地级及以上行政区域经验数据分析

本文基于中国326个地级及以上行政区域2010-2012年的数据,利用空间杜宾增长模型（SDM）来测算贸易开放对中国区域人均收入的影响。本文测算了各个区域贸易开放和人力资本对人均收入水平的直接、间接和总影响。结果表明：一个区域的贸易开放程度越高越能促进当地经济的发展,对相邻区域的人均收入也会产生正的影响。同时笔者也发现,人力资本对中国各个区域的经济增长会产生正的直接和间接影响。