Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID-19 in Asian Countries

This paper surveys the recent literature on the economic impacts of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19, which Asian countries have experienced in the past two decades. In particular, we provide a detailed summary of how each of the past infectious diseases has impacted on the Asian economies and the extent of that impact. This paper also documents how the governments of Asian countries have responded to the COVID-19 shocks with their economic policies, and discusses the effectiveness of these economic policies to mitigate the COVID-19 shocks on their economies.     

Five Basic Insights into the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak

This article analyzes the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, and puts forward with five basic insights concerning the degree of the impact, its duration, its key areas, and its quantitative calculation, among other aspects. The article holds that it is necessary to have a more objective understanding and judgement of how the virus affects the economy, particularly gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2020Q1 and the entire year. Only on the basis of reasonable analysis can we better grasp measures required to cope with the economic impact, combined with more targeted policy launch and adjustment, so as to speed economic recovery to its normal level.     

The Australian Economy in 2020–21: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Prospects for Economic Recovery

This article summarises developments in the Australian economy in 2020. It describes the economic growth and labour market ramifications associated with COVID-19, and the fiscal and monetary policies implemented to help counter its effects. COVID-19 has resulted in considerable slack in an economy that was weak pre-pandemic. While current policies are appropriately focused on stimulating demand and supporting employment, existing challenges such as weak growth in productivity, gross domestic product and real wages are also likely to remain relevant post-pandemic.     

经济增长理论演进与经济增长模型浅析

古典经济增长理论十分强调物质资本的作用,这种对资本积累作用的强调,形成了经济增长理论中的“资本决定论”;新古典经济增长强调了技术因素对经济增长的关键作用,相对于单纯强调资本作用的“唯资本论”来说,这是一次巨大的进步;新经济增长理论认为,经济增长就是一个以知识积累为基础,技术进步、人力资本积累、劳动分工演进和制度变迁等诸因素共同作用的社会过程,并分别从技术变化、人力资本积累、制度变迁、分工演进的角度,提出了新的经济增长模型,使经济增长理论研究的侧重点和方向发生了转移。     

Australian Government COVID-19 Business Supports

This article documents the considerable economic support provided to businesses by the Australian Government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that measures were associated with higher levels of business profitability and savings, a strong recovery in payroll jobs and wages, and mixed effects with respect to business dynamism. We formally evaluate the SME Cashflow Boost, finding costs per job-year saved in the vicinity of $72–83,000 ($US51–59,000) over its first year, implying between 400 and 500,000 job-years saved over this period. Combined with results from previous studies, this suggests between 1.1 and 1.3 million job-years were saved by the SME Cashflow Boost and JobKeeper Payment over their respective first years post-announcement.     

经济增长与通货紧缩

人们将经济快速增长与物价持续下跌并存的特殊经济现象称为经济缩长。文章利用AD-AS模型从理论上阐述了这种现象的发生机理,指出这是由于AD、AS曲线均快速向右移动,但AS移动更快造成的,并通过实证数据证实我国1997年～2002年的经济缩长正是这样发生的。文章还指出经济缩长的危害并不在于物价下跌本身,而在于实际经济增长率低于潜在经济增长率,治理和防范经济缩长需要同时增加总需求和总供给。     

COVID-19, asset markets and capital flows

This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID-19 outbreak, with special focus on the dynamics of capital flows across 14 emerging market economies. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to COVID-19 is also tested. Using daily data over the period January 4, 2010 to August 31, 2020, and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impacts on stock, bond and exchange rates due to COVID-19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus packages mainly helped to boost stock prices, notably for advanced and emerging economies in Asia. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world's leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID-19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries extended to EMEs, with significant positive spillovers to EME stock markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be persistent effects on bond markets in emerging Europe and on EME capital flows.     

Water and Economic Growth

Several hydrological studies forecast a global problem of water scarcity. This raises the question as to whether increasing water scarcity may impose constraints on the growth of countries. The influence of water utilisation on economic growth is depicted through a growth model that includes this congestible nonexcludable good as a productive input for private producers. Growth is negatively affected by the government's appropriation of output to supply water but positively influenced by the contribution of increased water use to capital productivity, leading to an inverted-U relationship between economic growth and the rate of water utilisation. Cross-country estimations confirm this relationship and suggest that for most economies current rates of fresh water utilisation are not yet constraining growth. However, for a handful of countries, moderate or extreme water scarcity may adversely affect economic growth. Nevertheless, even for water-scarce countries, there appears to be little evidence that there are severe diminishing returns to allocating more output to provide water, thus resulting in falling income per capita. These results suggest caution over the claims of some hydrological-based studies of a widespread global 'water crisis'.     

科研开发与经济增长——兼论科研开发的溢出效应

经济划分为科研部门和非科研部门，科研开发对经济增长的作用及科研对非科研部门具有外溢效应。1999-2003年30个省市自治区的面板数据表明，科研开发对经济增长具有较大的拉动作用，同时科研开发部门对其他部门的外溢作用明显为正。     

城市化与经济增长

一、从农村工业化到城市化 在过去20多年经济改革期间，中国经历了一个高速经济增长过程，与此同时也伴随着非常迅速的农村工业化过程。从1978年以来，有大约超过1亿的农村劳动力从农业部门转移到乡镇企业，这促进了乡镇企业在整个改革期间高速增长。从1978年到1997年这20年中，乡镇企业产出增长率年平均超过20％，对中国的经济增长做出了非常巨大的贡献。根据我们的初步估计，由于乡镇企业的发展对于改善资源配置等方面的贡献，净提高了中国经济增长率1.5……     

COVID-19 and gender disparities: Labour market outcomes

The study explores the effect of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes for women in the major urban areas in Canada. Using data from the Labour Force Statistics, we find the pandemic has had a disproportionately negative impact on the employment and income of women, worsening gender inequalities. Sectors more likely to employ women faced immense negative pressures, leading to dismal employment numbers. The effects of continued lockdowns and future potential inflation suggest that gender wage disparity continues to increase, worsening the economic health of women and making them even more vulnerable to future event risks.     

Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non‐uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long‐run growth rate of per‐capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi‐endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.     

财政分权与经济增长

对H.Davoodi,D.Xie,and H.Zou的两篇文章中的内生增长模型进行了改进;把地方财政决算支出占国家决算支出的比重看作衡量财政分权的指标,并利用1986-2004年间的数据对财政分权对我国经济增长的作用进行了两组回归分析。发现在1986-1990年间我国的财政分权的比重过高阻碍了我国的经济增长;在1991-2004年间我国的财政分权程度与我国的最大化经济增长相符。最后,对得出的统计结论进行了充分的解释。     

铁路建设与经济发展——基于山西铁路建设发展的思考

面对全面建设小康社会的需要和科学发展观的新要求,中国铁路面临良好的发展机遇,山西铁路建设必须抢抓历史机遇,要通过制定有利于铁路建设发展的政策,加快路网建设步伐,提高铁路运输能力,要坚持市场化和股份制的改革取向,积极稳妥推进铁路改革,要以市场为导向,加强客货运输产品的开发与营销,要依靠技术创新,加快铁路现代化进程。     

经济结构变化和经济增长

本文试图从生产技术角度构建一个多部门的经济增长模型，同时容纳Kuznets事实和Kaldor事实。模型经济由最终部门和多个中间部门组成，最终产品由各中间产品以CES函数形式生产。各中间部门的技术增长率不同，而这种差异引起经济结构变化，并导致中间产品的相对价格变化，进而决定各中间部门之间要素流动和产值相对份额变动。最终产品的技术增长率为各中间部门的技术增长率加权平均和，并随经济增长单方向变动，变动方向与中间产品之间的替代弹性大小相关。     

Free Trade and Economic Growth

This paper extends the Das (2005) model to set up an equilibrium growth model with heterogeneous labor to analyse the growth effects after trade openness. We prove that if the terms of trade large enough before opening trade, then it is more likely that opening trade would accelerate economic growth for a small open country, vice versa.     

Structural Change and Economic Growth

This paper presents a model in which a country's measured average propensity to save endogenously rises when its economy industrializes. The model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Only agriculture uses land. If at early dates income per capita is low, agricultural consumption is important, land is valuable, and capital gains on land may constitute most wealth accumulation, leaving the country's NIPA APS low. If exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time, Engel's law shifts demand to manufactured goods. Then land's portfolio importance relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the national income and products account saving rate can rise.