How demand scale affect services exports? Evidence from financial development perspective

China's service trade is increasingly capable of "going out," but there are still problems of uneven and insufficient economic development. This study uses bilateral services trade data from 2000 to 2018 to conduct empirical testing using the extended mutual gravity model and the threshold effect model. The results show that (i) an expansion in the size of the domestic market can significantly boost a country's service exports, and the magnitude of the impact is rising year by year. (ii) The development of the financial sector can strengthen the local market effect by increasing demand, thus promoting foreign exports. Financial development has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between demand size and the exports of service trade. (iii) Under the influence of the level of financial development, there is a "threshold effect" of domestic market demand size on service exports. This threshold effect varies among different types of services and different country categories. This study provides macro evidence that the scale of demand affects service exports and has important theoretical implications for the formulation of national service trade policies.     

产业政策促进全球价值链升级的有效性研究——基于出口加工区的准自然实验

本文利用我国出口加工区(EPZs)成立之初所实施的“主导产业”扶持政策构造“准自然实验”,实证检验了该政策对于企业全球价值链(GVC)升级的效果并进一步探讨政府实施产业政策的有效性,发现:(1)EPZs的“主导产业”政策对我国出口企业GVC升级存在负向影响,而这种负向影响在多重稳健性检验下均成立;(2)异质企业视角下考察产业政策对GVC升级的影响发现在国有资本份额较大的企业和重工业企业中产业政策对GVC升级的负向影响尤为明显;(3)对EPZs的“主导产业”政策发挥作用的前提进行检验,发现在比较优势较强的行业,产业政策对GVC升级的负向影响不明显甚至存在正向影响;同时,在错配程度较低的行业负向影响也不明显。由此本文认为,政府在推动GVC升级方面应当“有所作为”,但也不能“无所限制”,即产业政策要针对比较优势“精准定位”,但也应当以不造成资源严重错配为前提。     

Does CEO reputation matter for capital investments?

This paper examines the association between CEO reputation and corporate capital investments. The efficient contracting hypothesis predicts a positive association between CEO reputation and wealth effects of corporate capital investments. In contrast, the rent extraction hypothesis predicts that the wealth effects of capital investments are negatively associated with CEO reputation. We find that the stock market's responses to announcements of capital investments are more favorable for firms with more reputable CEOs. Moreover, CEO reputation mitigates the negative stock price reaction associated with announcements of capital investments by firms with high free cash flow and low growth opportunities. Additional analysis indicates that firms with more reputable CEOs exhibit significantly better post-investment operating performance improvements than those with less reputable CEOs, especially in firms with high free cash flow and low growth opportunities. Collectively, our results suggest that the efficient contracting hypothesis dominates the rent extraction hypothesis in terms of net economic impact of capital investments on the investing firm.     

中美贸易冲突的贸易后果 ——基于中美贸易细分产品数据的研究

基于双重差分模型,依据2014-2019年的中美贸易细分产品月度数据,考量中美贸易冲突对中美两国贸易的影响.结果显示:贸易冲突对中国从美国进口负向影响显著,且在样本期内具有平稳性与持续性;对中国对美出口负向效应显著,且在样本期内呈"倒U型"趋势.事件前期和中期,在"抢出口"效应作用下,贸易冲突对中国对美出口具有短期促进作用;事件后期,对中国对美出口的破坏影响显现.细分产品层面,贸易冲突对中国从美国资本品和消费品的进口负向影响显著,表明国家和个体层面都对贸易有所限制.出口方面,中国消费品出口所受的负向影响较强.同时,中美贸易冲突对于第三国贸易转移效应显著.     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

吉林省经济增长与金融发展的实证分析

采用1985—2010年时间序列,实证分析吉林省经济增长与金融发展规模、金融效率的关系,以及吉林省与全国经济增长差距、金融发展规模差距、金融效率差距间的关系。结果表明：吉林省金融发展规模是促进经济增长与提高金融效率的重要原因;而吉林省与全国经济增长差距、金融发展规模差距及金融效率差距虽然存在长期稳定的关系,但金融规模差距对经济增长差距的影响为负。     

Foreign direct investment and employment: host country experience

This study investigates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment creation and wages in Ghana. A simultaneous panel regression model is used in estimating the effect FDI has on employment and wages. The results of this study indicate that FDI has a statistically significant and positive effect on employment levels in Ghana, but has an insignificant effect on wages. FDI can greatly augment domestic efforts by creating more jobs in the economy. The results clearly demonstrate that FDI flows affect employment quantitatively, but not necessarily qualitatively. The study identifies other factors including, productivity, wages, sub-sector, and location as important in influencing employment levels. Also, productivity, labour union, firm size, sub-sector, and location are noted as significant in affecting wages in Ghana. The main value of this paper is in respect of the fact that it provides insight into the effects of FDI flow on employment from a host country perspective. The study recommends that FDI should be considered as an integral part of the Ghanaian economic policy in order to spur on economic growth.     

When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment

We study how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences firms’ overseas investments for Chinese listed companies. We find a significant negative relationship between EPU and firms’ overseas investments after controlling for firm characteristics and macroeconomic variables. Chinese firms seem to reduce their overseas investments on fixed income securities when facing domestic policy uncertainty. The negative relationship is pronounced for financially constrained firms, firms relying on government subsidies and with low overseas revenues, and SOEs. Firms operating in high marketisation regions can mitigate the negative effect of EPU on firms’ overseas investments. Our results remain significant when considering endogeneity problems.     

关于出口信用体系建设的三个重要问题

中国入世以后 ,出口信用具有了更重大的现实意义。尽管我国出口信用体系建设已初见成效 ,但仍面临三个重要问题。首先 ,法律的缺位 ,导致了出口信用组织体系的含混不清 ,加剧了不必要竞争 ,不利于引导和鼓励商业性金融服务的广泛介入。因而出口信用体系法规建设的必要性甚为紧迫。其次 ,面对入世后对外经济发展环境的根本性变化以及WTO因素的影响 ,出口信用有必要调整政策导向 ,从而有利于WTO义务的履行。第三 ,为了适应我国对外直接投资的发展以及出口贸易运作方式的变化 ,出口信用服务亦应多元化、国际化     

房地产投资和金融支持实体经济的交互影响研究--基于环沪都市圈的分析

基于房地产市场与金融发展的紧密关系,本文将房地产投资、金融发展与实体经济发展纳入同一框架进行综合研究。首先梳理房地产、金融效率的环沪都市圈1发展现状,深入探讨房地产、金融与宏观经济增长的作用机制。然后以2003~2016年环沪都市圈为样本,采用交互效应模型分析房地产投资通过金融体系间接影响经济发展的综合效应。分析得到的主要结论包括:环沪都市圈房地产投资对实体经济发展整体呈现一定的负向作用,主要是抑制了金融支持实体经济的效率,两者负相关系数为0.75;经实证研究进一步发现,在经济发展水平较弱、金融化程度越高的城市群,房地产投资对金融支持实体经济效率的抑制作用更加显著,是全部样本的2.4倍,这也恰好解释了浙北经济长期落后于苏南的原因。     

数字普惠金融对共同富裕影响研究——基于空间计量的实证研究

依据2011—2021年30个省级面板数据,运用固定效应模型、空间计量模型、中介模型,考量数字普惠金融对共同富裕的影响及机制。结果显示：数字普惠金融能改善居民收入水平、缩小居民收入差距,对共同富裕呈正向作用,同时具有区域异质性与结构异质性,呈负向空间溢出效应;经济增长与技术创新对共同富裕具有中介效应,经济增长提高社会福利水平,技术创新促进公共服务均等化,有利于共同富裕实现。     

资本市场融资、经济增长与产业结构升级——基于中国省际面板数据的检验

本文利用扩展柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分析我国金融深化的背景下,利用多层次资本市场的不同渠道资本融资、经济增长以及产业结构升级之间的动态关系。文章利用29个省、市、自治区2006~2010年的面板数据,实证结果发现:多层次资本市场融资对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,但债券市场与FDI对经济增长的作用较弱。总量促进经济增长的背后,不同的融资渠道之间的相互作用不尽相同:银行信贷与债券对股票市场筹资存在显著的"溢出效应",FDI对股票市场筹资存在显著的"挤出效应",说明股票市场融资可以替代FDI在实体经济中的作用。随后对多层次资本市场与产业结构转型关系的数据进行实证。研究发现:股票融资、债券融资在一定程度上推动了中国的经济结构转型,但FDI与结构转型负相关,银行信贷与经济转型的关系不显著。     

Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal

Commodity price booms, as those recorded in the last decade, may have a significant economic impact in small, commodity exporting, developing countries. Whether the impact on output is positive or negative is still unclear. It depends on various factors, notably on the impact that commodity prices can have on the real exchange rate of the commodity exporting countries. Two recent papers show that the real exchange rate appreciates when commodity prices increase. Our analysis produces new estimates of this relationship by focusing on a large sample of developing countries which are specialized in the export of one leading commodity. By using non-stationary panel techniques robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that the price of the dominant commodity has a significant long-run impact on the real exchange rate when the exports of the leading commodity have a share of at least 20 percent in the country's total exports of merchandises. Our results also show that the larger this share, the larger the size of the impact.     

Openness,Ownership, and Regional Economic Growth in Vietnam

ABSTRACT

In this article, we examine the influences of exports, multinational corporations (MNCs), and the share of state-owned enterprise (SOE) production in regional economic growth in Vietnam for the years 1996–2006. Various estimations, without and with considering the endogeneity problem, confirm that exports and the presence of MNCs are influential factors on promoting economic growth. Crucially, provinces with a higher ratio of SOE production have experienced higher economic growth. However, the positive relationship between SOE share and economic growth should be carefully interpreted.     

The Impact of Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institutions on Local Economic Growth in China

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between finance and growth in a fast growing country, such as China. Employing data of 27 Chinese provinces over the period 1995–2003, we study whether the financial development of two different types of financial institutions — banks and non-banks — have a (significantly different) impact on local economic growth. Our findings indicate that banking development shows a statistically significant and economically more pronounced impact on local economic growth.     

Internal control quality and relationship‐specific investments by suppliers and customers

This paper investigates the association between the quality of internal control over financial reporting (ICOFR) and relationship‐specific investments by suppliers/customers. I find a significant negative association between the disclosure of a material weakness (MW) in ICOFR and changes in the relationship‐specific investments of suppliers/customers. Relationship‐specific investments of suppliers/customers have a stronger negative association with inventory‐related MW. The negative association between MW disclosures and the relationship‐specific investments of suppliers/customers is stronger when economic dependence between the firms and the suppliers/customers is more important and when the suppliers/customers have greater bargaining power. Also, suppliers/customers significantly increase their relationship‐specific investments following the remediation of ineffective ICOFR. Overall, my findings show that a firm's quality of ICOFR affects the relationship‐specific investment decisions of suppliers/customers.     

外资银行进入能够促进企业创新吗？——基于跨国的经验证据

基于1995-2015年28个国家(地区)的8453家制造业上市公司数据,本文实证检验了外资银行进入对以研发投入度量的企业创新的影响。研究表明,外资银行进入能够显著提高东道国企业的研发投入。一系列稳健性检验结果表明上述结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,外资银行进入对企业创新的边际促进作用在金融发展水平较低、政府干预较多以及法治环境较差的国家(地区)中更加显著。本文从跨国视角考察了外资银行进入对东道国企业创新的影响,为理解外资银行进入与经济增长之间的关系提供来自企业创新活动层面的新经验证据,也为中国等发展中国家加快银行业对外开放提供可供借鉴的理论依据。     

研发投入、冗余资源与企业绩效的关系研究

采用创业板企业2010～2014年数据为研究对象,实证分析研发投入与企业绩效的关系,探讨冗余资源对于二者关系的调节效应.结果表明,我国创业板企业研发投入强度与当期绩效显著负相关,而与滞后一至三期企业绩效显著正相关.考虑企业冗余资源的影响,进一步研究发现,沉淀性冗余资源和非沉淀性冗余资源对研发投入强度与企业绩效的关系分别具有负向和正向的调节效应,说明沉淀性冗余资源不利于企业研发绩效的提升,而非沉淀性冗余资源则可以有效促进企业进行创新研发,提高研发效率,最终提升企业绩效.     

空间关联视角下连片特困地区农民收入增长的影响因素分析——基于武陵山区66个县域数据和空间杜宾模型的实证

基于2000-2014年武陵山区66个县域的面板数据和空间杜宾模型分析了连片特困地区农民收入增长的影响因素.研究结果表明:连片特困地区农民收入存在显著的空间关联效应.金融发展有效促进了县域内农民收入增长,但未在县域间产生明显的空间溢出效应.经济基础和投资水平不仅显著促进了县域内农民收入增长,而且在县域间产生了明显的正向空间溢出效应;经济基础促进农民收入增长的间接作用要大于直接效应,而投资水平正好与之相反;政府干预有效促进了县域农民收入增长并且对邻近县域农民收入增长产生了显著的负向空间溢出效应;产业结构对县域间农民收入增长的空间溢出效应负向显著;人力资本对农民收入增长的影响不显著.     

中国货币政策传导变量的区域结构效应研究

本文基于2007-2019年的数据实证分析利率、信贷、汇率、股票市场和房地产市场等货币政策传导变量对中国八大综合经济区经济增长和物价的影响.研究发现,中国货币政策传导存在明显的区域非对称效应;银行信贷和利率渠道对各区域经济增长和物价影响的方向基本一致,影响幅度存在较大差异;汇率对各区域经济增长、物价影响的方向和幅度均存...