Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US₂₀₁₀ by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.     

Approximations in power transmission planning: implications for the cost and performance of renewable portfolio standards

Renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) are popular market-based mechanisms for promoting development of renewable power generation. However, they are usually implemented without considering the capabilities and cost of transmission infrastructure. We use single- and multi-stage planning approaches to find cost-effective transmission and generation investments to meet single and multi-year RPS goals, respectively. Using a six-node network and assuming a linearized DC power flow, we examine how the lumpy nature of network reinforcements and Kirchhoff’s Voltage Law can affect the performance of RPSs. First, we show how simplified planning approaches that ignore transmission constraints, transmission lumpiness, or Kirchhoff’s voltage law yield distorted estimates of the type and location of infrastructure, as well as inaccurate compliance costs to meet the renewable goals. Second, we illustrate how lumpy transmission investments and Kirchhoff’s voltage law result in compliance costs that are nonconvex with respect to the RPS targets, in the sense that the marginal costs of meeting the RPS may decrease rather than increase as the target is raised. Thus, the value of renewable energy certificates (RECs) also depends on the network topology, as does the amount of noncompliance with the RPS, if noncompliance is penalized but not prohibited. Finally, we use a multi-stage planning model to determine the optimal generation and transmission infrastructure for RPS designs that set multiyear goals. We find that the optimal infrastructure to meet RPS policies that are enforced year-by-year differ from the optimal infrastructure if banking and borrowing is allowed in the REC market.     

Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways

This paper analyses sustainability transitions in the electricity system, using recent theories on socio-technical pathways. The paper describes three possible transition pathways and indicates the implications for (grid) infrastructures. The ‘transformation pathway’ is characterised by a further hybridization of the infrastructure; in the ‘reconfiguration pathway’, internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation lead to the emergence of a ‘Supergrid’. The ‘de-alignment and re-alignment pathway’ is dominated by distributed generation and a focus on more local infrastructures. We suggest that this pathway, which involves a major restructuring of the electricity system, is less likely than the other two. The de-alignment and re-alignment pathway is therefore more dependent on external developments and/or strong policy interventions. All pathways, however, require major investments in infrastructure and innovative technologies.     

Total‐Factor Energy and Emission Efficiencies of ASEAN and Other Asian Economies

This research uses the slack‐based measure data envelopment analysis to compute the energy and emission efficiencies of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other Asian economies during the 2001–2017 period, employs the Malmquist productivity index to check for the main source of efficiency score changes due to technical changes, and then applies panel Tobit regressions to determine the factors explaining the efficiencies. Our empirical results show that the energy efficiency scores of ASEAN economies had been catching up to other Asian economies after the Global Financial Crisis, whereas the emission efficiency scores of various ASEAN economies had been falling behind other Asian economies over the same period. The main source of efficiency score changes over time is efficiency changes and not technical changes. Decreases in the fossil fuel ratio of net electricity generation and the secondary industry ratio within total industry improve both lead to improvements in energy and emission efficiencies.     

Does urbanization increase pollutant emission and energy intensity? evidence from some Asian developing economies

This paper aims to investigate the effects of urbanization on pollutant emissions and energy intensity in selected Asian developing countries after controlling for the effects of disaggregated (renewable and non-renewable) energy consumption, trade liberalization, and economic growth. We use both linear and nonlinear panel data econometric techniques and employ recently introduced mean group estimation methods, allowing for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. However, to check the robustness of our panel results, we also apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bound testing approach to country-level data. In addition, the relationship between affluence and CO₂ emissions is examined in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The estimation results identify the population, affluence, and non-renewable energy consumption as major factors in pollutant emissions in Asian countries. However, the results of the EKC hypothesis show that when countries achieve a certain level of economic growth, their emissions tend to decline. Whereas nonlinear results show that renewable energy, urbanization, and trade liberalization reduce emissions, linear estimations do not confirm these outcomes. Thus, substitution of non-renewable for renewable energy consumption, cautious and planned urbanization programs and more liberal trading regimes may be viable options for sustainable growth of these developing Asian economies.     

Development of smart microgrid powered by renewable energy in China: current status and challenges

During the ‘13^th Five-Year Plan period’ (2016–2020), one of the main targets for China's energy strategy is to develop a new generation of power system, integrating high shares of renewable energy sources. This implies that the technology industrialisation of microgrid powered by distributed generation of renewable energy is becoming crucial. This paper carries out a comprehensive study of the status and challenges of developing microgrid, based on case studies of demonstration projects of microgrid in China during different developmental stages. The focus is on the effects of government policies, technical innovations and changes in the business model of electricity market on the promotion of microgrid in China and the reformation of electricity market in China. The ultimate target for the reformation of power system in China is to finish the transformation from a linear business model of centralised power system.     

Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: Network industries utilizing economies of scale in the digital era

What drives the productivity dynamics of infrastructure companies? Using a panel of firms in 14 countries, we study total factor productivity (TFP) enhancers of utility and network services companies. We find that moving TFP closer to the technological frontier drives productivity growth at higher speeds in Asian countries than in European countries. We also find that financial leverage exerts a positive effect on TFP growth for larger infrastructure firms and that more financially developed countries utilize economies of scale through better use of financial resources. Large utility and transportation companies display a higher rate of TFP growth, indicating that a competition policy to encourage M&As would be prudent for the utility/transportation sectors to maximize economies of scale. In contrast, we find diseconomies of scale for energy companies in some countries. Moreover, young network firms improve TFP growth faster than their peers in countries with fewer product market regulations. Therefore, policies should remove entry barriers while facilitating the departure of old and low-productivity firms from network markets. Finally, policymakers should offer well-targeted fiscal incentives for intangible investments to boost TFP because the accumulation of intangible assets such as digital technology promotes more scale economies through network effects.     

Renewable energy and unemployment: A general equilibrium analysis

Using a three-sector general equilibrium model, the impact of renewable electricity support policies on the rate of equilibrium unemployment is analyzed. In a simple two-factor version of the model, the paper shows analytically that renewable electricity support policies lead to an increase in the rate of unemployment. A numerical analysis is conducted with an expanded three-factor model. In this version, most scenarios analyzed also lead to an increase in equilibrium unemployment. However, the paper identifies conditions in which renewable energy support policies can decrease the rate of equilibrium unemployment. In particular, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is low, when capital is not mobile internationally, and when the labor intensity of renewable generation is high relative to conventional generation, renewable electricity support policies may reduce the rate of equilibrium unemployment. The model is parameterized to represent the US economy, such that the magnitudes of quantities can be observed. Although there is some variation in the results depending on parameters, the findings suggest in general that reducing electricity sector emissions by 10% through renewable electricity support policies is likely to increase the equilibrium unemployment rate by about 0.1–0.3 percentage points.     

Renewable energy and unemployment: A general equilibrium analysis

Using a three-sector general equilibrium model, the impact of renewable electricity support policies on the rate of equilibrium unemployment is analyzed. In a simple two-factor version of the model, the paper shows analytically that renewable electricity support policies lead to an increase in the rate of unemployment. A numerical analysis is conducted with an expanded three-factor model. In this version, most scenarios analyzed also lead to an increase in equilibrium unemployment. However, the paper identifies conditions in which renewable energy support policies can decrease the rate of equilibrium unemployment. In particular, when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is low, when capital is not mobile internationally, and when the labor intensity of renewable generation is high relative to conventional generation, renewable electricity support policies may reduce the rate of equilibrium unemployment. The model is parameterized to represent the US economy, such that the magnitudes of quantities can be observed. Although there is some variation in the results depending on parameters, the findings suggest in general that reducing electricity sector emissions by 10% through renewable electricity support policies is likely to increase the equilibrium unemployment rate by about 0.1–0.3 percentage points.     

The Effect of Feed-in Tariffs on Renewable Electricity Generation: An Instrumental Variables Approach

While carbon taxes and other market-based instruments are widely regarded as optimal for climate mitigation, political constraints have prevented governments from using them. Instead, narrower instruments, including the feed-in tariff (FIT) for renewable electricity generation, have become popular. However, their causal effect on renewable electricity generation remains subject to uncertainty. We use instrumental variables to estimate the causal effect of FITs on renewable electricity generation in 26 industrialized countries, 1979–2005. We find that increasing the FIT by one U.S. cent (2000 constant prices) per kilowatt hour increases the percentage change in renewable electricity’s share of the total by 0.11 % points. All else constant, if a country implemented for a decade the sample mean FIT of three U.S. cents, the national share of renewable electricity would increase by 3.3 % points, which is more than the sample mean. In addition to demonstrating that the FIT is an effective way to increase renewable electricity generation, our approach lays the foundation for future studies of the causal effects of renewable energy policies.     

The 1997 Asian Currency Crisis,Financial Linkages,and the Monetary Policy of Japan

The evidence is examined that excessively liberal monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, before and after the financial collapse of Japan in 1992, may have led other East Asian economies into “over‐borrowing” and speculative investments, prior to the currency crisis in 1997–98. The authors test for cointegration and Granger causality between Japanese money supply M1 and the domestic investment of eight East Asian economies and Australia. US and German money supplies are also used as a benchmark. There is strong evidence that there are long‐ and short‐run causal relationships between the Japanese money supply and the domestic investment of the Asian crisis‐inflicted economies prior to 1997.     

What’s powering wind? The effect of the U.S. state renewable energy policies on wind capacity (1994–2012)

As of 2012, 29 states had enacted a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), while 37 states had at least one utility offering Green Power Purchasing (GPP) to their customers. The goal of both policies is to promote the adoption of clean, renewable energy. This article examines the influence of these polices on wind capacity across the United States from 1994–2012, a period of significant expansion of the wind generation market. The analysis focuses on wind because as compared with other modern renewable energy sources, wind is the only renewable energy source to make significant inroads into the U.S. electricity generation market. My findings indicate that while there have been significant increases in commercial scale wind generation capacity, neither RPS nor GPP programmes had a significant influence on within state wind capacity additions.     

Market Reform and Infrastructure Development in Transition Economies

This paper analyzes the determinants of investments in physical infrastructure over the first decade of market reform in Central and Eastern Europe and other former Soviet economies. Both market and political reform would be expected to have an impact on the level of infrastructure, but the relationship will likely differ for infrastructure which remains dependent on the public sector and that which becomes more dependent on private investment after such reforms. Results for a large cross section of transition economies show that market reform has had a positive impact on both traditional and newer types of infrastructure, with a stronger impact on the newer types which are more likely to be market‐derived. The findings also suggest that market reform is more likely to push investors to develop infrastructure when political and market reforms are accomplished in tandem.     

Global Expansion of Renewable Energy Generation: An Analysis of Policy Instruments

This study analyzes the degree to which renewable energy policies, in particular feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards, facilitate renewable energy generation growth across a wide range of countries using an original cross-national dataset of 164 countries between 1990 and 2010. Results provide evidence that both policies are important predictors of renewable energy market growth. The dependent variable is operationalized first as the percentage of total electricity from renewable energy and second as the annual increase in total renewable energy generation in a country. Results are robust to several alternative model specifications including those that exclude hydroelectric generation in the construct of renewable energy. The degree to which feed-in tariffs are endogenous, however, is not conclusive. Besides the prominent role of these policies, results reveal that factors related to annual increases in renewable energy differ from those related to an overall transition toward greater reliance on renewable energy. This suggests that simply increasing renewable generation does not necessarily decrease reliance on fossil fuels or help countries make the shift to a clean energy economy.     

Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy

Increasing electric power production from renewable energy sources is currently one of the major objectives of energy policy. The intermittent nature of renewables, such as wind and solar, necessarily imposes complex trade-offs for regulatory objectives, such as resource adequacy (and system reliability) versus reductions in green house gas emissions. We develop a highly stylized model of investments in order to derive insights regarding the workings of regulatory incentives for increased renewable energy. We first show that incentives are indeed needed when there are significant economies of scale in the form of “learning by doing” or alternatively, when there is excess capacity in conventional technology due to legacy investments. We analyze two different regulatory schemes (feed-in tariffs and renewable portafolio standards) aimed at increasing investment in renewable capacity. We show that neither scheme is capable of inducing the socially optimal level of investment in renewable capacity. A single feed-in tariff fails to induce optimal investment as a feed-in tariff exceeding marginal costs of conventional technology incentivizes over-development of the most attractive sites which preempts investment in less attractive, yet socially valuable sites. A renewable portfolio standard that promotes increased investment in renewable technology induces under-investment in the conventional technology. These results suggest that a “clinical” regulatory design, that is, one that promotes the right amount of renewable capacity without affecting conventional capacity is a challenging proposition.     

基础设施投资的经济增长效应

基础设施总投资、交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资以及电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出具有较大、持久的正影响,时滞也相对较短;电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出的正影响更大,并且对交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资也具有较大的正影响。我国基础设施投资效应的这些重要特征,对于我国宏观经济政策的制定、实施时机和基础设施投资领域的选择都具有重要意义。     

Economies of scope and scale in the Norwegian electricity industry

An important issue for multi-product firms to consider is economies of scope, i.e., whether there is any benefit from producing two or more products, or whether specializing in producing only one product would be less costly. We examined the economies of scope for Norwegian electricity companies because policy makers have decided to force companies that both generates and distributes electricity to split their operations into two companies, one engaged in generation only and the other in distribution only. We set out to test the validity of the policy makers decision on unbundling generation and distribution. Using data from Norwegian electricity companies for the period 2004–2014, we found evidence of economies of scope, meaning that policy makers’ insistence on separating generation and distribution companies will have increased costs. We also found evidence of economies of scale, meaning that there are cost savings in expanding outputs. Our findings provide important information to consider in future policy decisions in the Norwegian electricity industry, probably with implications for other countries.     

THE SOCIAL EFFICIENCY OF INSTRUMENTS FOR THE PROMOTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN THE LIBERALISED POWER INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper compares the social efficiency of the two main regulatory instruments used to promote renewable energy sources in electricity generation (RES-E), taking into consideration their role in promoting the preservation of the climate. They are based on a purchase obligation and act either by price (feed-in tariffs) or by quantity (RES-E quotas). In their reference design, the instruments show different performances in several dimensions: market incentives intensity, control of the cost for consumers, safeguards of RES-E investments, and conformity with the new market regime of the electricity industry. The comparison shows that neither instrument offers an optimal solution in each of these dimensions. In particular, the intrinsic qualities of the quotas instrument that are put forward to mandate its adoption by the EU members are overestimated. A government will thus select an instrument in accordance with the relative importance of its objectives: environmental policy versus cost control by market pressure.     

Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.     

佛得角圣文森特岛能源发展概况、问题与建议

佛得角能源矿产资源缺乏,电力生产主要依赖进口化石能源进行热力发电,尽管可再生能源较为丰富,但尚未充分开发利用。通过对佛得角能源和电力市场的全面考察,统筹考虑圣文森特岛现有电力装机规模、电力生产与消费形势、可再生能源发展潜力,提出圣文森特岛应调整优化能源结构,提高可再生能源在能源供给中的比例;升级改造配电网,推进智能电网建设;鼓励私营业主与企业参与电力设施投资,逐步建立适应 IPP电力投资的政策框架。