The accuracy of project cost and duration estimates in industrial R&D

Abstract . This study of the accuracy of cost and duration estimates, both initial and intermediate, for industrial R&D projects, is based mainly on analysis of the records of 475 projects in four varying research organizations. Mean ratios of actual to estimated cost ranging from 0.97 to 1.51 are obtained, and mean ratios of actual to estimated duration from 1.39 to 3.04. The results are generally similar to those of other British and American studies, with which they are compared.
There is no evidence that the information gained as projects progress enables their future cost and duration to be estimated more accurately; at best, the accuracy of such estimates remains constant. No effect of project size on estimate accuracy is found; effects of project length on accuracy, and of time (i.e. increasing experience) on accuracy are found only in one organization each. The pattern of expenditure over time is examined, and found on average to be not far from linear, though with wide individual project variations.
When the individual project ratios are reduced by constant factors representing optimistic or pessimistic bias (derived from the mean ratios, and assumed to be characteristic of the firm), and then subjected to a log transformation to make their distribution more symmetrical, the remaining variation, which is a measure of the inaccuracy of estimation for the individual projects, is closely similar in the four organizations, and not greatly different in the organizations covered by other studies when the data are similarly treated.     

Bias and Error in Mine Project Capital Cost Estimation

Previous analyses of small samples of mining projects have found that feasibility studies tend to underestimate the as-built capital costs of the project. Our review of 63 international mining and smelting projects confirms that as-built capital costs are, on average, 14% higher than as estimated in the bankable feasibility study. There is little attenuation over time of this bias in capital cost estimation, appearing to reflect an absence of learning on the part of the project sponsor or the consulting engineering firm. We argue that this persistence of bias is instead intentional and rational, driven by a scarcity of project financing and the need by project sponsors to inflate the project economics in a bid to secure financing. We find some empirical support for our contention. A second phase of the analysis examines estimation error. Roughly half of all projects' as-built capital costs fall outside of the expected ± 15% of the feasibility study capital cost estimate, even after allowing for intentional estimation bias. Cost overruns of 100% or more happen in roughly 1 out of 13 projects. Smaller projects have less estimation accuracy than large projects. Finally, our analysis of the cost overrun data reveals that a shifted lognormal probability distribution should be used when modeling mining project capital costs in a Monte Carlo analysis.     

国际石油合作分成模式经济评价研究

中国石油消费日益增长 ,与资源的矛盾日益突出 ,中国石油石化企业进行国际石油合作势在必行。研究了国际石油合作项目投资、工作权益、项目操作费、合同费用、分成模式及效益评价等。并应注意国际石油合作项目为风险投资 ,还须考虑资源国的经济状况和文化背景等。     

施工阶段金融机构大型装修项目造价控制的探讨

随着我国建筑产业规模不断扩大,装修项目越来越多,建造标准和装修档次越来越高,投资额也在节节攀升.尤其金融机构大型装修项目,施工工艺复杂,结构层次变化多,安全性能要求高,装饰材料品种繁杂,对工程造价控制提出了更高层次的要求,无论是计量方法还是计价措施都面临着更严峻的挑战.而施工阶段是项目实施过程中周期最长、资金投入量最大...     

Shared knowledge and product design glitches in integrated product development

Product development processes based on the joint collaboration of the cross-functional team, suppliers, and customers can minimize project glitches. Glitches in the product development project can cause project cost over-runs and delay a project past when first mover advantages are possible. While previous theoretical work has suggested a negative relationship between shared knowledge and product development glitches, empirical studies have not identified how different types of shared knowledge are associated with each other and the design glitches. This study proposes a model of the relationship between specific types of shared knowledge and design glitches in integrated product development (IPD) projects. We test our model using a sample of 191 projects from the automotive industry in the United States. The major findings were that: (1) shared knowledge of the development process can be built by improving a team's shared knowledge of customers, suppliers, and internal capabilities, (2) shared knowledge of the development process for a project reduces product design glitches, and (3) reduced product design glitches improve product development time, cost, and customer satisfaction.     

Information acquisition and optimal project management

This paper provides a rationale for why an organization often generates a bias in favor of a new project even after learning that its profitability will be certainly below more conventional ones. We analyze a principal–agent model with two alternative projects, one of which is to be chosen by the principal. In our model, the profitability of a project is determined by the cost of implementation. All parties are familiar with one of the projects (the known project), and thus the implementation cost of this project is common knowledge. Information on the other project (the new project), however, must be acquired by the agent. We find that the new project may be chosen in the optimal contract even when it turns out to be more costly to implement than the known project, if acquiring information is costly enough and the realized implementation cost of the new project is below a particular level. We also discuss distortion in the new project's output schedule when it is selected.     

试论文物保护工程中的造价管理与实践

随着国家经济和社会的不断发展,各地开展文物保护工程的项目不断增多,对文物保护工程的造价管理提出了更高要求.笔者发现长期以来对该领域的工程造价研究还不够,实际工作中经常引起造价争议,进而给确定工程造价合理化和市场化带来困扰.文章从文物古建筑、古墓葬、古遗址等保护工程出发,并结合国家文物局发布的《文物建筑保护工程预算定额(...     

Principal researcher and project manager: who should drive R&D projects?

In this paper, it is analyzed the hypothesis that in R&D the principal researcher (PR) is accepted as the coordinator or project manager (PM), carrying out the search for financing and to manage contracts, resources, cost, time, scope, risk and uncertainty, communication, stakeholders and so on, in addition to internal research activities. Thus, this study tries to verify this hypothesis through a major literature review in different types of projects developed by university, but also with a look to industry and industry-university cooperation. Two case studies are also analyzed, centered in its R&D project management maturity level. It is concluded that there is an important issue in projects’ success and in the time spent by PR in management, work for which they are under trained; while at the industry there is a greater approach to project management by the proximity of the innovation projects to other industrial projects. Following these initial findings and according to the case study results, it is proposed that R&D Projects in universities would be separated into two synergistic knowledge areas: R&D Management and Project Management. It is also recommended to allocate them to two distinct roles, where they could add value to R&D through their better knowledge and skills.     

Fuzzy Present Value Analysis Model For Evaluating Information System Projects

In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using present value is analyzed based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs, benefits, and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. In this study, we propose an approximate method of computing project present value using the concept of fuzzy modeling with special reference to information system projects. This proposed model has the potential of enhancing the project selection process by capturing a better economic picture of the project alternatives. The proposed methodology can also be used for other real-life projects with high degree of uncertainty and risk.     

采用甲方施工图预算和工程量清单计价相结合的办法控制工程造价

按照正常的工程结算方式,我们国家大多采用的是施工图预算方式,施工图预算的依据为国家和行业定额加相关取费文件.但是,由于施工图预算计算起来往往由于预算人员的计算误差和对施工图理解的不同,思维方式的不同,造成建设单位和施工单位计算的结果误差较大,给工程结算造成较大的麻烦.为了解决这一问题,作者在多年从事工程概预算经验的基础上,提出对工程结算的方式进行改革.采用变乙方作施工图预算为甲方作预算的办法,在工程结算中对于规范项目按照国际上通用的做法-工程量清单计价的办法.在具体项目上要灵活运用甲方施工图预算和工程量清单计价的特点,将二者有机的结合在一起,对有效确定和控制工程造价具有重要的意义.     

监理工作渗透设计阶段造价控制的方法探析

工程造价的高低是决定方案取舍的关键,也是衡量投资效果好坏的主要依据。如何把工程造价控制在科学合理的水平是工程建设各方合力追求的目标。文章对我国工程建设项目造价控制的现状进行了分析,阐述了工程监理在项目投资控制中所起的重要作用。通过各阶段比较分析,提出整个项目建设期间造价控制的关键在于设计阶段,设计的正确与否直接关系着项目的成败,所以应进一步将监理工作渗透到项目设计阶段的各项活动中,才能对工程造价进行最有效的控制。这对实行了20年多的工程监理模式提出了新的要求。     

2008年电力线路工程造价变化情况分析

电网建设外部环境的日益复杂,给电力线路建设工程的造价带来较大影响。在广泛调研2008年国家电网公司范围内竣工投产的110-500kv交流架空电力线路工程造价的基础上,分析了电力线路工程造价的变化情况,并从主要工程量指标分析入手,揭示了影响电力线路工程造价的主要因素,对现阶段电力线路工程造价的有效控制提出了建议。     

剧院类项目工程造价管理要点研究

通过对剧院类项目工程特点、造价特点的梳理,对影响其造价的主要因素进行分析、归纳,并在此基础上,结合已有项目的造价管理经验着重论述剧院类项目各阶段造价管理工作的重点,为此类项目的造价管理工作提供理论依据和经验参考。     

新疆下坂地水利枢纽工程施工阶段的投资控制

施工阶段的投资控制是保证建设项目按期完成及节约工程成本的重要措施,结合新疆下坂地水利枢纽工程实例,介绍了建设过程中为防止投资突破预算限额而实施的施工阶段投资控制,并针对实施过程中存在的问题和困难,提出了改进方法和措施,对水利电力工程建设阶段资金全过程造价控制管理有着重要的借鉴意义。     

政府投资项目招标投标阶段的全面造价管理

全面造价管理是现有建设项目造价管理思想和方法的全面集成,它是用来指导人们分析、确定和控制工程造价的思想和方法,包含全团队造价管理、全要素造价管理、全过程造价管理和全生命期造价管理。文章简单扼要介绍建设项目招标投标的意义,分析了我国政府投资项目招投标阶段造价管理现状。为了解决存在的主要问题,将以全面造价管理为理论基础,探讨政府投资项目招投标阶段造价管理的实施方法,期望为政府投资项目造价管理提供实践的指导。     

Organizing for Product Development Projects

How should companies organize to support the development of new products? Erik Larson and David Gobeli assessed the relative effectiveness of five different project management structures by comparing the performance of 540 development projects in terms of cost, schedule and technical performance. The findings contradict Peters and Waterman's popular conclusion that project teams are superior to matrix structures for developing new products and services. Both the balanced matrix and project matrix compared favorably with project teams in terms of cost, schedule and technical performance. Furthermore, the project matrix received a stronger recommendation from managers than the project team. Little support was found for either the functional or functional matrix approach to project management.     

油气勘探投资项目评价指标的探讨

油气田勘探开发项目其技术经济特点不同于一般工业性项目，因其原油产量逐年递减，而收人也相对逐年减少，造成了项目单位成本逐年升高，利润指标逐年降低，文章就从油气田开发项目的一般生产规律和技术经济特点出发。初步研究了该类项目评价体系和基准值等相关问题，提出了初步的意见和建议，对决策工作能起到一定的作用。     

建设项目成本管理与投资控制

建设项目成本管理与投资控制是建设项目管理的重要组成部分。本阐述了建设项目管理各阶段成本管理与投资控制要点，提出了行之有效的控制方法与技巧，在大中型建设项目管理中具有实用价值。     

Refining the search for project success factors: a multivariate, typological approach

Although the causes for project success and failure have been the subject of many studies, no conclusive evidence or common agreement has been achieved so far. One criticism involves the universalistic approach used often in project management studies, according to which all projects are assumed to be similar. A second problem is the issue of subjectiveness, and sometimes weakly defined success measures; yet another concern is the limited number of managerial variables examined by previous research. In the present study we use a project-specific typological approach, a multidimensional criteria for assessing project success, and a multivariate statistical analysis method. According to our typology projects were classified according to their technological uncertainty at project initiation and their system scope which is their location on a hierarchical ladder of systems and subsystems. For each of the 127 projects in our study that were executed in Israel, we recorded 360 managerial variables and 13 success measures. The use of a very detailed data and multivariate methods such as canonical correlation and eigenvector analysis enables us to account for all the interactions between managerial and success variables and to address a handful of perspectives, often left unanalyzed by previous research. Assessing the variants of managerial variables and their impact on project success for various types of projects, serves also a step toward the establishment of a typological theory of projects. Although some success factors are common to all projects, our study identified project-specific lists of factors, indicating for example, that high-uncertainty projects must be managed differently than low-uncertainty projects, and high-scope projects differently than low-scope projects.     

青宁输气管道工程EPC联合体全过程成本管理

随着现代项目管理的不断创新和发展,越来越多的大型工程采用EPC联合体总承包的运行模式。在EPC联合体项目实施过程中,成本管理贯穿于项目的全生命周期,是项目管理的核心内容,是项目利润的重要来源。文章以青宁输气管道工程为例,从EPC项目前期决策、设计、采办、施工、结算等全过程的各个环节阐述成本管理的要点和措施,以便于更好地促进项目管理效率的提升和投资费用的全面优化,为国家管网公司成立后新形势下石油工程建设公司更好地承揽类似项目提供一定的经验和参考。