美在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响

本文利用美在华直接投资和中美贸易的相关数据通过协整检验并构建误差修正模型,较为清晰地说明中美贸易不平衡问题在很大程度上是由美在华直接投资所引致并扩大,这种引致过程主要通过美在华投资企业加工贸易返销美国造成。实质上体现了国际产业结构演进的必然结果,中美贸易不平衡的局面会作为投资贸易一体化趋势下的全球各国经济关系中的重要现象而长期存在。同时,这种贸易不平衡局面会在中国经济各方面快速发展的一个相对长期的过程中趋于平衡。     

FDI对我国对外贸易的影响解析

本文主要通过近年来我国外商直接投资与对外贸易的实证数据，分析FDI流入对我国贸易的带动作用，实证结果表明对外直接投资与我国对外贸易在量上存在正相关关系。     

国际贸易对中外双向投资影响的实证分析

改革开放以来尤其是我国加入世贸以来,我国国际贸易额大幅上升,与此同时,流入我国的外商直接投资和我国的对外直接投资同时迅猛地增长。那么国际贸易和双向投资之间是否存在着某种必然的相关性呢?运用计量经济学的方法对我国国际贸易额与我国双向FDI的总量关系进行实证分析,得出结论,国际贸易对我国双向FDI起着促进作用,其中,对外商直接投资促进作用较大(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的进口就会流入0.303亿美元的FDI,每产生一亿美元的出口就会流入0.208亿美元的FDI),对对外直接投资影响较小(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的贸易仅对对外投资0.003 203亿美元)。并由此提出了一些建设性的意见。     

Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment

The purpose of a cultural institute is to improve international relations with other countries by promoting language familiarity and cultural awareness. In addition, cultural institutes can provide additional business opportunities that lead to positive economic side effects such as increases in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In this study, gravity models were used to analyse the data for the Goethe Institut (Germany), the Cervantes Institute (Spain) and the Confucius Institute (China) to identify any stylised international patterns of the documented economic effects. The study finds significant positive effects on bilateral trade and FDI outflows for all three programmes, along with two important (i) the effects are stronger for non‐advanced economies and (ii) the effects are substantially larger on FDI than on trade. These results suggest that cultural institutes can be an effective policy tool in promoting FDI outflows, with the strongest effect realised when a home country locates its cultural institutes in host countries with developing economies. Importantly, results also suggest that the Chinese government's approach to extend its soft power through rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes worldwide has not been as successful as the efforts by the German Goethe Institut in increasing trade and FDI.     

Do bilateral investment treaties attract foreign direct investment? The role of international dispute settlement provisions

This paper studies the effects of the strength of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) activity. We develop an index for the strength of international dispute settlement provisions included in BITs in order to examine the role the content of BITs plays in attracting FDI. To this end, we make use of data from UNCTAD's International Investment Agreement Mapping Project and measure the provision strength of 2,571 BITs. Using panel data of bilateral and total FDI inflows and inward FDI stocks, we study the effect of BITs on FDI. Our main finding indicates that stronger international dispute settlement provisions in BITs are indeed associated with positive effects on FDI activity.     

论国际贸易与国际直接投资关系的发展与变迁

国际贸易和国际直接投资是跨国界配置资源的两种方式 ,都能有力地推动一国经济增长 ,通过对相关理论和各国实践进行考察 ,结合当今跨国公司的活动得出结论 :国际贸易和国际直接投资之间的关系历经了以替代、互补为主的阶段 ,目前表现为在跨国公司全球战略控制下的并重、互动的关系。同时从两方面具体分析了这种互动关系 ,并在此基础上指出国家相关政策应搭配协调 ,以更好地为其经济发展服务。     

美在华直接投资与中国对美出口商品结构关系研究

文章运用大量数据分别考察了美国在华直接投资的结构特征与中国对美国出口商品的结构特征,发现它们之间存在显著相关性.通过计量方法进一步论证了美国在华直接投资每增加一个百分点可带动劳动密集型和资本密集型产品及低、中、高技术产品对美国出口的不同出口效果,据此说明美国在华直接投资对中国向美国出口的商品结构产生了极大的影响.     

Intra-Industry Specialization in United States–China Trade

Frictions in U.S.–China bilateral trade relations have intensified in recent years. Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may have been experienced by U.S. and Chinese industries from recent growth in bilateral trade. Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–10 period. Only 14 of 62 U.S. industries may have experienced factor adjustment pressures. Most U.S. industries gained from growth in U.S.–China trade. Nine Chinese industries may have faced factor adjustment pressures. The United States should refrain from using trade remedy measures to address bilateral trade frictions and focus instead on improving trade relations.     

国际贸易与FDI:基于提高国民福利水平的比较

国际贸易与对外直接投资是参与国际经济交流与合作的方式,二者都会影响参与国社会福利水平的改变。通过构建两个相同市场容量的完全垄断市场下的古诺模型,对国际贸易与FD I提高国民的社会福利水平的效率问题进行比较,认为国际贸易较FD I对提高国民社会福利水平更有效。     

美国外国投资国家安全审查制度的历史变迁、制度设计及中国的应对

美国经济近年来的平稳增长,离不开全球资本的战略推进和外国资本的大量涌入。2018年美国政府完成了外国投资国家安全审查制度的改革,《外国投资风险评估现代化法》也已生效,加强了美国外国投资委员会的相关执法功能。美国外国投资国家安全审查制度自第一次世界大战以来,历经制度初建、成型、成熟和改革的四个阶段,对外资的审查由宽松逐渐强化,审查范围不断扩大。外资审查制度的改革对中国赴美投资造成了明显负面影响,使得中国对美投资规模显著下滑。为此,中国政府和企业需要积极应对美国外资安全审查,应全面了解美国外资审查制度、加快推动中美双边投资协议的谈判,并提前评估赴美投资的法律和监管风险。     

Paraguay and Mercosur: The Lesser of Two Evils?

ABSTRACT

This article examines Paraguay's experience with Mercosur in terms of its impact on economic growth, trade, investment, industrial competitiveness, and income distribution. Of particular interest is Mercosur's impact on the flourishing border trade taking place under the “regimen de turismo,” a special tax regime for consumer goods, especially electronics. The author concludes that while Mercosur has not brought all the benefits expected from membership in the customs union, being excluded from Mercosur might have been worse for the Paraguayan economy.     

How did investor‐state dispute settlement get a bad rap? Blame it on NAFTA,of course

In the short history of the US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) programme, there have been no instances of dispute settlement cases initiated against the United States by firms from BIT countries. The NAFTA experience changed that. Where other studies have only hinted at the reasons for NAFTA controversies, this paper makes clear three causal factors: (i) changing patterns and intensity of FDI, (ii) the application of those rules to developed countries amid those changing FDI patterns and (iii) ambiguities in ISDS rules themselves. The paper explores these and traces the ways in which lessons of the NAFTA have been instrumental in changing the pursuit of investment protection agreements. BITs used to be uncontroversial, but the NAFTA focused attention on reforms to ISDS that maintain the utility of BITs in the governance of FDI, without creating a legal structure for simply challenging the state.